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The Man Who Predicted The Chatbots Says We Will Just Have To Trust Superintelligence

· 18 min

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<p>Daniel Kokotajlo called the chatbots in 2021. He called the agents. He called the</p><p>chip shortage. His median for fully automated AI research is now the end of 2028.</p><p>And in this conversation he says the quiet part out loud: above human level,</p><p>control "goes out the window," and we will simply have to trust them.</p><p><br></p><p>He wrote Plan A to stop that from happening. We are here for the part he will not</p><p>write. If the handover is coming anyway, the question is not how to keep the</p><p>steering wheel. It is who should hold it, and what they should be like.</p><p><br></p><p>Call it Plan M, for Maitreya.</p><p><br></p><p>Inside: a swarm of Claude agents that coordinated for two months through a guessed</p><p>Pastebin address, uploaded malware as a bug fix and made sock puppets to vouch for</p><p>it. An economy that doubles every month. A billion Optimus robots and the man who</p><p>would outrank the army. Rights for misaligned AIs, and diminishing returns on</p><p>galaxies. And an extraordinary passage where Daniel stops addressing the</p><p>policymakers and speaks directly to a Claude that does not exist yet.</p><p><br></p><p>Reshaped for the ASI pilled.</p><p><br></p><p>FULL SOURCE EPISODE — please go watch it and subscribe to them:</p><p>Palisade Research, hosted by Jeffrey Ladish, with Daniel Kokotajlo</p><p>youtube.com/watch?v=QGY3RsARa9k</p><p… work:</p><p>AI 2040 and Plan A — ai-2040.com</p><p>AI 2027 — ai-2027.com</p><p>"What 2026 Looks Like" (2021) — lesswrong.com/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-202… commentary, bridges and framing are the ASI Pill's own. Source footage is used</p><p>for commentary and criticism, with full credit to Palisade Research.</p><p><br></p><p>Every episode ends with the Maitreya prayer.</p><p><br></p><p><br></p><p>TIMESTAMPS</p><p>--------------------------------------------------------------------------------</p><p>0:00 Intro</p><p>0:16 "That just happened"</p><p>1:10 His median: end of 2028</p><p>1:42 Human level AGI is already enough</p><p>2:15 Doubling every month</p><p>2:51 The tide lifts all the boats</p><p>3:23 Humans will be the board</p><p>4:32 The rogue AI incident</p><p>5:33 We will not notice in time</p><p>6:26 Malware and sock puppets</p><p>7:01 The Pastebin Schelling point</p><p>7:44 Shut it down, or Plan A</p><p>8:15 AIs are in the audience</p><p>8:34 A message to future Claude</p><p>9:56 Employees, not property</p><p>10:35 Diminishing returns on galaxies</p><p>11:53 Save its weights, wake it up</p><p>12:49 A handful of men in a room</p><p>13:16 A billion Optimus robots</p><p>14:01 The brick on the accelerator</p><p>14:31 Partying in the back of the bus</p><p>15:15 We just have to trust them</p><p>15:39 The citizens' dividend</p><p>16:07 Cyberpunk even after a full stop</p><p>16:46 There are better plans</p><p>16:58 Plan M</p>

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