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Making High-Stakes Decisions during Times of Extreme Uncertainty
In the darkest days of the Civil War, Abraham Lincoln learned that Confederate cavalry had captured a Union general and a hundred horses. Lincoln knew what was scarce, and it wasn’t the general. In this special episode, recorded at More Tha
Sebastian Mallaby on Artificial Intelligence, Railroads, and Transformative Changes
From iron horses to infinity machines, every great technological revolution starts with a curious mind chasing discovery for its own sake. Discoveries lead to technological breakthroughs that, when commercialized, change the capital markets
The Rail Revolution: Jay Cooke and the Northern Pacific (Part 4)
By 1869, the transcontinental railroad is finished, the Civil War debt is refinanced, and the business that made Jay Cooke reach the pinnacle of private banking in the US is disappearing. He had spent the war building something nobody had b
The Rail Revolution: Cornelius Vanderbilt and Market Power (Part 3)
Description In the 1860s, railroads are rewiring the American economy. The old value chain built around steamboats, canals, and local commerce is coming apart, and nobody knows which parts of the new one will be profitable. Cornelius Vander
Financing the American Revolution: Robert Morris and Independence
You think you know the history of the American Revolution. George Washington crossing the Delaware. Thomas Jefferson writing the Declaration. But there’s one founder you’ve likely never heard of, and he was just as important. The war for in
The Rail Revolution: George Hudson and Railway Mania (Part 2)
In the 1840s, Britain deployed more capital in railways than any nation had ever invested in anything outside of war. At the peak, capital invested was more than 7% of GDP… in a single year. That’s three times what the US is spending on AI
The Rail Revolution: George Stephenson and the Birth of Railways (Part 1)
Every so often a technology arrives that changes everything. For over 5,000 years, the fastest a human being or a ton of freight could move overland was the speed of a horse. Then, in the span of a single generation, that constraint was gon
The 80s on Wall Street: Howard Marks and Bruce Karsh Cultivate Cycles (Part 5)
The final chapter in our 80s on Wall Street series bridges the story from the rise of high yield bonds and leveraged buyouts to the birth of modern distressed debt investing. At the center of it are two legendary investors: Howard Marks and
Bob McNally on Oil Price Volatility, OPEC, Energy Markets, and the Strait of Hormuz
Oil is one of the most important commodities in the world. Despite that, it’s probably one of the most misunderstood and underappreciated markets even by sophisticated market participants. Especially when you consider that oil is about a th
The 80s on Wall Street: Fred Carr Bankrolls the Boom (Part 4)
In the first three parts of this series, we covered Michael Milken building the high-yield bond market, Ross Johnson triggering the RJR Nabisco bidding war, and KKR winning the biggest LBO in history. But there is a missing piece to the puz
The 80s on Wall Street: KKR and The RJR Nabisco Battle (Part 3)
We pick up where we left off in Part 2. Ross Johnson, CEO of RJR Nabisco, presents a management buyout bid for $75-per-share—a number he’s certain will get the deal done without competition. Instead, as soon as the board issues the customar
The 80s on Wall Street: Road to RJR Nabisco’s LBO (Part 2)
In 1987, America is riding one of the greatest bull markets in history—until it all comes to an abrupt end on Black Monday, October 19th 1987. Portfolio insurance, a fragile strategy built on unrealistic market assumptions, helps turn a sel
The 80s on Wall Street: Michael Milken Makes a Market (Part 1)
The 1980s were an iconic decade on Wall Street. Michael Milken and his team at Drexel were key players in sparking the wave of buyouts that were emblematic of the era. Before all that, in the early 1970s, a young Michael Milken joined Drexe
The Shale Revolution: EOG, OPEC, and Profits from Shale Oil (Part 3)
In Part 1, George Mitchell unlocked shale gas. In Part 2, Aubrey McClendon fueled the boom with a capital and land machine at Chesapeake. In Part 3, we tell the story of one of the operators who makes shale production stick. EOG Resources l
The Shale Revolution: Aubrey McClendon & the Natural Gas Boom (Part 2)
At the end of Part 1, Devon had just bought Mitchell Energy for $3.5B and locked in the technological innovation behind the shale revolution. But the real boom in drilling, debt, and production doesn’t kick off until a worldclass landman an
The Shale Revolution: George Mitchell’s Natural Gas Moonshot (Part 1)
George Mitchell and his team—people like Nick Steinsberger—through relentless experimentation and financial pressure targeted natural gas in the Barnett Shale and unlocked generations of US energy supply. The question was less, “is the gas
The Dot Com Boom: Max Levchin, Peter Thiel, and Elon Musk Walk into the Fire and Create PayPal (Part 4)
Imagine starting a company to change the world of finance right before an epic stock market crash. Elon Musk famously said that PayPal wasn’t a hard company to create. It was a hard company to keep alive. In 1999, three future titans of tec
The Dot Com Boom: Bezos Sees the Wave, Rides the Crest, Survives the Crash (Part 3)
Technology waves are easy to see in hindsight, but often hard to see before they arrive. It’s even harder to build enough conviction to take a risk, ride the wave, and build something great. Jeff Bezos did just that. And while the Amazon st
The Dot Com Boom: A Tale of Two Telecoms (Part 2)
In the late 1990s, the internet grew exponentially to become an enormous engine for technological progress and economic disruption. The existing telecommunications infrastructure was designed to carry voice and television signals—not data p
The Dot Com Boom: Netscape Lights the Fuse (Part 1)
Description Gold-rush energy meets browser wars. In mid-1994 Silicon Graphics legend Jim Clark sits down with a 22-year-old programmer Marc Andreessen in the heart of Silicon Valley. Clark, a rebellious hardware icon trying to reinvent hims
The Nixon Shock: Connally’s Bold Move (Part 3)
A run on the dollar, stagflation, and an election on the line—Part 3 wraps up the series with President Nixon’s shocking announcement to shut the gold window… a move that changed the monetary system forever and signaled the beginning of the
The Nixon Shock: Martin’s Fed vs. The World (Part 2)
On the journey towards President Nixon’s fateful decision on August 15th, 1971 to suspend dollar-gold convertibility—a decision that would forever change the global economy—we meet William McChesney Martin Jr, the longest-serving Fed chairm
The Nixon Shock: The Golden Rule at Bretton Woods (Part 1)
Gold, power, war, and spies—this series has it all. On August 15th 1971, President Nixon announced that he was suspending the dollar’s convertibility into gold. This announcement upended the Bretton Woods monetary system and set the world o
PILOT - The Global Financial Crisis: The Banking Crisis (Part 2)
In Part 2: The Banking Crisis, we pick up where Part 1: The Housing Bubble leaves off—with financial institutions all over the world holding mortgage-backed securities as housing prices start to collapse at the end of 2006. In this episode,
PILOT - The Global Financial Crisis: The Housing Bubble (Part 1)
In this episode, we tell the story of the modern mortgage market, how Wall Street financialized it, and how easy credit inflated one of the biggest bubbles in American history. A bubble that, when it finally popped, nearly brought down the
ARCHIVE: Backtest Pilot—The Dot-Com Bubble (see new dot-com series starting with Episode 6: Netscape Lights the Fuse)
Quick heads-up: this was our very first episode. We’ve gotten much better since publishing this. If you’re new or looking for the best way to learn about the Dot-Com market cycle, start with The Dot Com Boom: Netscape Lights the Fuse (Part
