Decoding the bond sell-off

Global bond yields have been rising sharply, with long-term yields breaking higher across multiple markets - pushing US 30‑year yields above 5%.​
The sell-off was initially triggered by energy-linked inflation resulting from the Iran war, but increasingly reflects a broader, cross‑market re-pricing, with fiscal pressures, shifting rate expectations and signs of bear‑flattening emerging in key markets.​
In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Lucile Flight, Managing Director in Rates Trading, joins Patrick Coffey to examine what’s driving the move in different regions – from political uncertainty shaping UK gilts to changing views on neutral rates in the US and a dialled-back ECB response in Europe. ​
They discuss what could bring yields down again and where investors are seeing the most compelling opportunities across global rates.​
Listeners can hear more on this topic:​​​
• Inflation crosscurrents: Energy vs AI (ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/inflat…) ​
• European rates: Inflation & AI waves collide (ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/europe…)​

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:​​
• Thinking Macro: No saving grace (live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPu…) ​
• Federal Reserve Commentary: What would trigger a 2026 Fed hike? (live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPu… ​)
• United Kingdom Outlook: What a week... (live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPu… ​)
• Global Economics Weekly: Leaders meet and bonds shriek (live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPu… )