Trashfuture x Better Offline: Goosed In The Shell

0:02 Media.

0:04 It is with great excitement that I would like to announce the newest joint venture in the high tech world between Fast Future Podcasts Limited, formerly oil Warehouse formerly NFT Tax Loss Harvesting Service formerly I believe, several kinds of consulting firm and maybe a private investigator, and our good friends at Better Offline, and of.

0:27 Course I'm representing the SoftBank Zitron merger we did earlier in the year, in which case I am now technically Masayoshi's son's son, and so we are related. He is my father and I am his son. Now I am Masiosi son. We are all Masaoji's son on some level. Welcome to Better Offline and Trash Future at the same time. Yeah, it's tf X Xitron. Oh, it's beautiful.

1:05 I'm so excited to announce that. Between our our two shows, which are our independent company and iHeart, we're actually going to be building apart. Look, Meta and Blue Owl have said they're going to be building a data center, an AI data center the size of I believe several Manhattans. Well, we are building a podcast generating data center that will cover nineteen Staten islands and cost only one trillion dollars is expected to generate upwards of fifty dollars a year.

1:33 People are telling me you're on too many podcasts November and I will not start. Not only am I starting more podcasts, but I'm also folding more into the existing podcast So pretty soon everything will be trash future.

1:48 Yes, zaraon Stke trying to stop us from building the data center, saying that it's not viable. And to that I tell I say to him, well, have you ever started a business it's been successful.

1:58 No, you haven't, so shut.

2:00 No, that's one of the two things that can happen in New York City. Yeah.

2:03 I mean this is a really a really obvious thing. When you look at Zara Mundane, you look at that guy, and you say, that guy doesn't know a thing about being successful. I'm very certainly guy's never succeeded.

2:13 Yeah, he's truly disliked by New Yorkers. That's the thing that I hear from them. They're not just like welling up with pride over his Fourth of July speech. They don't love the fact to fix the Williamsburg bike lay. No, no, no, it's all just everyone's sitting in their apartments in Connecticut where they live most of the time, other than the one day of the year where they come into New York to complain.

2:34 Well, okay, I did say nineteen Staten Islands. What if we data centered over Staten Island and just made it nineteen stories.

2:42 Actually based on everything I know about Staten Island. The people, they might approve, but they'll be like, ah, fuck it, We've done our best.

2:51 We've motovated Staten Island. No, welcome to TF better upline. And here's the thing TF listeners have been saying to me, like, you know, discord and stuff. Why haven't you covered the Masso She saw the newest piece of I guess outsider art published by soft Bank in the form of their investor presentation.

3:10 It's so beautiful.

3:11 There's always a lot in them and Masso she san your father, yes, our I believe uncle.

3:18 Has these fucking podcast NAPO babies.

3:22 There's always some visual metaphor. I think that the Masseo son decides this is gonna be how I communicate to everybody. The thing that Chad GBT and I stayed up all night for a month kind of coming up with.

3:36 Yeah, and it used to be like.

3:39 Flying unicorns, right, how they would fly over like the trench of despair and into like the future of optimists.

3:45 Yeah, the trench of coronavirus, right, that was one of his Yeah, the trench of COVID. That was the one, the valley of coronavirus.

3:52 Now, this SoftBank presentation has I would say a different recurrent visual metaphor that starts around slide up for forty.

4:02 And we'll link to this in the in the notes so that you can behold the goose. Yeah, So can everybody turn to slide forty four in your packs? Please? I'm there, this is it's beautiful. I am crying.

4:17 So what I have in front of me in case you can't turn to slide forty four in your packs because you're catching up on our investor presentation or our presentation of SoftBank's investor presentation. Imagine your investor in SoftBank. Maybe you're a pension fund, you're Ontario teachers, you've invested in soft Bank, and the MASSOHI saw on you can see his face light up because he's about to give you his visual metaphor. Slide forty three to forty four transition.

4:39 It's a picture of a goose in five golden eggs. Yep, that's right.

4:44 I think. Yeah, the thing is like it actually does make sense when you read it one hundred times because actually, let's go a little bit into it and that I'll give a full explanation, because there is a logic. It's just insane.

5:00 Generally, I love the graphics.

5:01 Like I've got a friend who's like he does like his his job is to sort of apparently upgrade decks. He goes like he does consulting for like companies to be like, here's how you can make your PowerPoint presentations look better because real like.

5:13 Do you pronounce that unionized or unionized? Moment there where I'm like, the decks like the thing you have like outside of a house.

5:22 Well, well, I mean I asked him in certain in terms of like what you mean like magic the gathering, which apparently which I guess would make more money. But but I saw this, and I sent this to him, and he was and he and he and like his reaction I think was one of the funniest things that I've ever I've sort of ever encountered. Every graphic in this presentation is a mixture of graphic designers my passion, but also like I it's one like I sort of feel like it's actually ironically beautiful. Yes, this is amazing, It's an amazing.

5:53 It's genuinely beautiful because like I said, so I I must be clear when the goose is soft Bank.

6:01 Right, Okay, here's like seven times in this as well, right.

6:05 Okay, So soft Bank is the goose, Masiosi, Masayoshi's son is the gander. Masayoshi son mounts and impregnates soft Bank, by which I mean invests money in companies using soft Bank's funds, which point the goose, which is soft Bank, becomes pregnant, and the portfolio company goes larger, then it lays the egg, the portfolio company goes public. Basically, soft Bank is a company that invests in companies that then go public and makes soft Bank money. In theory, and Masayoshi's son just vigorously you could you could more normally call this like an incubator, but instead he's picturing himself as a virile goose. Yes, exactly, He's just he is just like absolutely going to town on the goose of soft Bank every year.

6:48 Jesus, Jesus, just a discuss coming up to the coming out to the legs and grasping it with both hands and talking to a lot of people who have real sort of influence and terms of capitalist central planning and going, I've in fucking gooses.

7:03 Can you imagine like being a major investor in stuff? But like the Japanese government is invested in this company through ETFs, like and you're just like, great, what what Masioshi Son's got for me this year? And you're just like the what what?

7:18 What?

7:19 I think the sort of interesting question about this slide decking about Masioshi Son himself is like, yes, there is a logic if you work hard enough. This is also true of the ramblings of someone experiencing a florid mental health episode on public transports who we've you know, decided as a society. Now, I guess it's okay to kill that person, but it's not okay to kill Masioshi's son.

7:44 And I don't know, really know how to reconcile those two things.

7:47 Not to not to say that we approve of that for legal reasons, just to be just to be clear and new. Yeah, I mean that's your dad. I wouldn't say that you should leave my father alone anyway.

7:56 Sorry, rally, so basically and this this is that the mental health point I think is interesting, right because there's this idea that's been going around, that's been going sort of like legitimate business publications that CEOs are getting AI psychosis. Yes, it's just that because they're CEOs, you know, they when they get AI psychosis, they don't like get on the path train and have a heart attackle trying to meet like their fake girlfriend from character AI, which more or less sort of actually happened to somebody, yeah details AI specifically, yeah.

8:29 Yeah yeah.

8:29 But in this case, they get up on stage and they say, I have been I am destined. I am destined to bring about the birth of an artificially superintelligent god through this goose that has historically not been valued. Because if you turn to slide forty seven, you'll see the main problem is Goose was not valued.

8:47 Yes, Goose value zero. And I think I don't know if you remember the Robe Wismann fake Uber YouTube thing that the listeners are going to love this because it's just and it's just him going Uber Driver suck me off, and he's just like sure, I just thinkost zero zero, it's really good.

9:06 Imagine this in the I imagine this in the dark soul spont goose not value.

9:12 Well, this is the thing, right, what we've got here is And I think it's interesting that the AIS of cyber psychosis thing because nas something is very open about using AI, spending a lot of time talking to AI, really eternalizing and personalizing the AI for himself. What we've done is we've done a kind of like European medieval royalty thing where we've created a kind of system where if you are you know, at the top of it, you can have the delusions and society has to conform around you.

9:42 You are the king of France. Everybody has to act like you are made of glass. Oh god, it is. It's just besides its digital versa. It's just that like everyone stinks, everyone's weird. It's like it's either shit or oranges in the air. Now everyone's just like, wow, we all love loops now, right, and everyone goes loops. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I love loops. Loops are the best where we hate we hate the other thing now.

10:06 And so each of these eggs is a trillion yen yeah, and the markets are only the eggs, which is the value of the companies but the goose not valued.

10:14 Goose not value zero. Yeah, goose value zero.

10:17 But in fact, and it says eggs do not lay eggs, and it was the goose that created the value.

10:23 Many people are saying that I died.

10:25 This whole time. I had it wrong. The eggs. Fuck.

10:30 It's very funny to have a sort of like arch capitalist go Wait a second, this business doesn't create any of its own value, and this value has got to come from somewhere, so I assume it's from you know, analogously goose and non analogously me.

10:45 Yeah. So yeah, I've been doing the hater's go to soft bank and they just went out, so I can very freshen my mind. And the thing that you'll know when you look back at Massiosha Sun is he's a terrible fucking investor, like historically bad, other than like four times when he was amazing. He bought Ala Barbara at twenty million dollars. He invested it, put twenty million in worth about one hundred billion dollars equity value at the top, sold it for about thirty billion because that's Masayoshi sign.

11:11 He bought Armed for thirty two billion dollars, took it private and then took public and now it's worth a bunch more money. But Yahoo Japan is the craziest one, like classic loser company Yahoo. But it turns out that he managed to, through one of his weird joint ventures, stop it from being absorbed into the problematic Yahoo. So he acted it. But every time he does something, well, it's by accident. Every time he loves Also, I swear this is true. He has a thing for whimsical white boys like well, who doesn't I mean the Green Silk Cat like Lex green Sill and him used to talk on the phone every day he invested in we work in twenty eight minutes they signed the four point four billion dollar deal in the back of a car on

11:55 an iPad And it was like twenty seventeen, so the iPad wasn't very good the time. So they're just like like this fucking like clunky, probably cracked like across the front font probably seventy two, just like, no, we must do this, we must do this, now, we have to do this. I must I'm being whimsical in front of the wrong peep exactly. No, I genuinely think the if I got in front of Masioshi's son for maybe ten minutes.

12:22 I could get seven billion dollars.

12:24 But here's your father, so you hope that you will he will give you the time.

12:28 I wish all of this could. I wish I could get in front of him. I wish I could just tell him some of the great ideas I have about like I don't know. Look, I have a newslet with one hundred and eight thousand subscribers Masaosi's son. What if it had a trillion subscribers? Huh right, And He'll be like, whoa, that's and we're we're in on the ground floor of this.

12:50 We can get in. That's a big number. Ed, I'd love to invest seven billion dollars. I'll be like, I think that should be good enough to get us started. Macaiosi son, another ten billion dollars, and I guarantee you a trullion subscribers will happen by it could be as early as twenty ninety easy pasy. Hmmm.

13:10 Well, the thing is right, I think this is a good start, right, but we've got to aim high, Okay, So like, yeah, what we do is we get we get you in front of him and we say all of this. But then you know, as he's sort of like he's.

13:22 Warming to you. You see that he's kind of receptive to this.

13:24 What you do is you switch it up right, you lean forward, you jump out of the seat and grab him by both lapels and you look him dead in the eye and you say, and I'm going to invent God?

13:34 Oh yeah, And how do you love that? And here's the thing, how do Christians like get a relationship with God? The Bible a written document? What if the Bible could be emailed to people every week? Every week they email the Bible? That's what? That's what? Where's your head at is? And Masaiosi Sun by this point is just he is taking out a margin loan. He's like calling these back and I need every dollar I've got, say it all I need to back this. We direct all of it from open Ai.

14:08 I've got a new person who's recently who told me they're going to build God most recently so basically because that's a little like we work was supposed to be heaven on earth.

14:18 Like that was the pitch?

14:19 Is that, oh, that you could remake You could remake a kind of prelapse arian, non alienated community. You could have gardens of Eden everywhere. It was the point. Yeah, but just that office sharing that same thing with flow that's supposed to be that too, Like no, no, we've got to much much more abstract. God yeah, any case, yeah yeah, he said to the geese, he said, so back to the gate, can we focus on the geese on this technology? Sorry? Sorry I got I got us off of goose.

14:45 My bad.

14:46 So eggs do not lay eggs obviously, obviously, and so the mission to go for how do you go from three eggs to seventy four eggs and increase of seventy.

14:56 More geese and Massioshi sounds gonna stop fucking them.

14:59 It was the Google that created it was the goose that created value.

15:02 Oh so the value came from the goose.

15:06 I think I read that in capital Yeah, so the goose value, goose value is seventy one, right, So goose value seventy one, and people didn't value the goose at seventy one. No, what matters not the eggs, It is the goose itself, and true value is the power to keep laying eggs. Right, And because of this, he estimates that in the next sixteen years he will be the first yen based quadrillionaire, or at least soft Bank will be a gooseworth of a quadrillion yen.

15:32 I'm not sure what effects me more the fact that this is written so much like sort of serial killer taunting the police, or the fact that it kind of appears to maybe be working well. The thing is, it works because Masayoshi's son is able to keep getting debt and genuinely, had open Aiye not come along, Masayoshi's son might have been fine. Arm turned out so well like it just as a chip maker, he's been able to do basically unlimited margin loans, and he was okay, he could have been fine, but then the whimsical white boy operated in front of him, and he was like, okay, this is it, Like this is my boy. I will give him. He took out a forty billion dollar margin loan, not margin, sorry, a bridge loan. It's a year long loan. Yeah,

16:16 jesus if you wanted to.

16:17 If you want the story on bridging loans, refer back to our episode of Earth Rob Smith about bridging loans and what kinds of things they're for and what kinds of terms they usually have. So the true source of the value. Could he ever turn to place fifty five. This includes everyone listening on your on your packet. So the true source of the value is the golden egg factory inside the goose. Yes, and then it actually gets helpfully broken.

16:39 Like a woom.

16:40 I guess well, So the goose here is soft bank bringing out artificial superintelligence, and the internal mechanism is an AI generated factory of eggs that are also labeled artificial superintelligence.

16:55 Yeah, each egg is a SI. Right, So eggs used to be eggs used to be just a trillion dollars of yen. But that's sorry, a trillion yen. It's like six something billion dollars. What. I don't really know what the eggs mean anymore other than ASI, which is it's kind of like a yeah, it was like Ben Garrison cartoon, Like, well, I mean this is where we want to go.

17:19 I want to go back to what Doova was saying about mental illness right about. This is someone who because we know what happens with Maso she Song, we know he talks to chat GPT every day. He's like one of the probably one of the world's biggest users of it's like talk to you function, and he has been convinced by it that he's going to build God. But because he is a because he is one of the central economic planners of the global economy, he gets to allocate capital according to his delusion, as opposed to the porschmuck dying on the path train who just gets like scraped off the wall that Masao she saw gets to fucking run through. Yeah, it's a bit like the bit like Peter t I think also went crazy with ais

18:00 more unhinged in public example, recently said that the pulp is a Chinese Communist Party agent, which he's not supposed to know, right, Look that's you're not you.

18:09 Look, you don't have any.

18:12 Fans And the odds of him having figured that out were crazy low. So like it's no shame on the Vatican. But like Jesus, guys, the other thing.

18:20 Is as well, is it's like on top of just the ridiculousness of this, And if you had a homeless man on the tube saying jus.

18:28 Us about he's golden egg VECTORI inside the goose, you see the internal mechanism, right, what you see the eggs that produces them is the factories you would like hopefully get them the help they need it.

18:40 But because he invested in alib Barba, we have to like take this shit seriously now. Slide fifty six is also good because he invents a new kind of goose math where egg value. You were wasting on this, I've been using Tarren's mallicks old goose math. You've heard of girl math. Get ready for goose man. It's like goose value alpha. I don't know, I'm not going to come up with an actual thing because soft Bank is a valueless company outside of the things it helps. It is just a large holding company that is kind of a big part. It's like the second or third largest company on the Japanese stock market. And it's like that. The other thing that I keep coming back to that really isn't shown here is that's not actually the net asset

19:27 value of soft Bank. Like that's like I'm going to just go right, Like the net asset value right now is yeah, forty trillion, Like this is from soft Bank's own website. So what he is doing here is he's like, yeah, I'm adding the other thirty trillion from open Ai. He's just adding He's just making up how much open ai is worth. And as eager listeners will know right now, Masiyoshi Son tried to get a margin loan on this open Ai stock all of it, and yeah, then couldn't.

19:57 The banks were like, no, thank you.

20:10 I was going to play this game later, but can we get an applause sound effectfully? Is because we're gonna have an impromptu episode of everybody's favorite gamey uh with with So far it's only contested possibly host et Cron, welcome to Is that good?

20:31 Yeah? Thank you for coming on the show, sprinting down from the audience. Yeah, just chosen again for I really hope I get on? Is that good? Atron? My fingers crossed?

20:48 Liked you have like a do you have like a phone?

20:52 A friend?

20:52 Option on? That? Just a switch, It's just an unlabeled switch. So ed, thank you for playing? Is that good? For having me? So? All right?

21:04 The situation you just described where Masseo chi san, who's already borrowed a lot of money to invest in open Ai, essentially like a sports sports gambler paying for his bets by borrowing from the mob. The bet on open It if you can't roll over the bet to keep on doubling down on the bet, is that good?

21:23 Yesl like you for the questions again, it's amazing. It's just really funny as well because literally the we keep coming back to the point. Literally the only reason we don't treat this man like he's an insane person is because he is. He hasn't blown himself up yet, like it really and it is. Yeah, it's like he has taken out so much there on open Ai, like way more than we work, like historic ammounts, and he's just and he's even the more thing. But he's doing Goose fraud right now, Like he's like fifty seven claims seventy four trillion dollars of egg value or show older value, and that's not what's on bank's website. It's thirty trillion dollars. Sorry, it's forty eight point two six trillion yen is the

22:08 xit value of holdings. That's lower than seventy four. I'm pretty new to Goose math, but I can see that that is still a drives me insane actually because in a world of deep equality, Masayoshi Son gets away with it only because he's a whimsical man out in Japan, like because he's fun he is, And the thing is, eight people, you're like, oh, we got ai psychosis. It's like I think he might have had it already, like without he just got it for the first case of world's first case of ai psychosis inflicted before twenty twenty two. Well, first person to get ai psychosis from GPT two. I actually want to read you a quick quote about Massa Yoshi son from an article this is I promise you this is worthwhile. It's actually very important to understand the

22:58 whole goose thing. So from a Kakashi great pseudonymous analyst guy. I followed, So okay, his dad was talking about him and sixty year old Matsio. She signed. He was super wrestling his older brother and losing badly, but he refused to stop. When his father finally he pulled him away. The boys eyes were in Mitsunari's words. Is that like an animal's a wolf size? I thought to myself, this bustard is not human.

23:22 Doing hype edits for your son like playfight thing is really funny.

23:27 I just really like that him just getting his ass kicked when he's six and he's like he just turns round.

23:33 He just has like demonie a world's first person to have laser eyes in real life. Look, here's the thing. There's the other thing, right, we're talking about marso she sign's life. The presentation concludes with what used to be his fifty year life plan, but now is his sixty year life It's so good. So his fifty year life plan was get acknowledged in your twenties. Finance a war chest in your thirties. In your forties, take on a challenge in your fifties.

24:03 Complete business. To do that, just like a bucket, like ins any of them, any of them like an eighteen year old girls Instagram post. To take take on a challenge.

24:13 Sure, remember ice bucket challenge for als and twenty eleven. Take on that challenge. Done to finish the decade. Fifties complete business okay, so uh, to complete all the business.

24:25 That means yeah, yeah.

24:27 Sixties handover business to next generation. But no fucking cross thou no crossed out. This is the sixty year life plan. Sixties crossed out, handover business to next generation. Gone, It's not replaced. It now just has a seventies value, which is realizing ASI or artificial super intelligence a similar a term that's used in this is.

24:49 Like not a new Cubris. Right, you could have done this at any point in human history. There were guys back in the day whose life plan was twenty unite Southern Song Dynasty, thirties, conquer Northern Song Dynasty. Forties, establish mandate as son of Heaven. Fifties alchemy, sixties alchemy, seventies, never die.

25:15 I feel like it's missing, like a little detour.

25:17 I feel like you need like a bit of a side quest to sort of really make this fun, Like you know, you should, like, you know, fifty five start a band.

25:23 I don't know, there's so many.

25:24 Like, yeah, sixty learn to ride a motorcycle. No, it's it's in this case, it's really just like the most obvious thing of like, twenties conquer entire known world. Thirties weep because there's no more worlds to conquer. Forties build giant statue. Fifties start reinforcing statue at legs. Yeah. I also want to be clear, it's really funny to do this insane hour and fifty minute long presentation where you're like slide four JP, why one quadrillion and they just be like, and I'm not retiring for at least another decade.

25:58 Fuck you, I don't. I don't think that I live in a functional enough economy or society to have a life plan, Like my life plan is like twenties, fuck around this mental health and drop out of UNI, thirties, podcast forces, podcast, fifties podcast, sixties climate Wars. Maybe yeah, woke Battalion in Climate Wars.

26:21 She thinks the climate Wars I'm gonna start until she's in a sixties fucking idiot.

26:25 So this is but this is basically this is This is the story of someone who has I think we come back round to this because think it's very important someone who has been driven to mania about this thing, but who happens to be able to force that mania upon everybody else.

26:41 Yeah.

26:42 And you know, one of the things I want to dig a little deeper into actually is his claim that artificial superintelligence is coming. Artificial super intelligence and artificial general intelligence, I think are used pretty interchangeably. He uses artificial super the same thing. Yeah, and so he basically Maso she Son is Sam Altman? Are now so Sam Altman's guys?

27:01 Excuse me? Told Masseoshi Son probably in the we just need another can you take out alone to give us a loan? Said that an AI model is designing the next future AI model.

27:13 It open a up. Ah, so like sorry, son said, you can't. You can't see the model or anything to do with the model. Read this like philosopher, we got in to talk about you know, the cost whatever. It's just like it's if they find a new key to jingle and it's like, well, why don't we invent I don't know, make the model do something new. It's like, what if we just made the model do that, or if we just fucking you know, like the model could do the model stuff and we could just sit here and take the cash massire and like it's the laziest thing in the world. It's like if any any other situation, it's like I'll have someone else do it. You'd probably be like they'd be like, well, no, you've got to do something I gave you gave you forty billion dollars,

27:54 like you probably want to do something with it. But Macioshi sounds like hell yeah. What's funny is mashi Yoshi's son, Sam Altman, came to him in twenty seventeen, I think, and asked for ten billion dollars. Mashioshi's son said yes, But then Sam Altman just kind of walked off and took the money from from Microsoft, and that drove Massaiyoshi's son insane. He was like, oh my fuck, what ah, I missed out the one that got away, and now I will shower her with jewels and gems. She will be mine.

28:27 Yeah, and like the time to get it if you wanted to sort of make money on that, the time to get in was then, and the time to get out is now.

28:34 Yeah. He really the worst times his only I would say maybe if Open Eye goes public, which is now an if, he might have done very well based on the first forty billion, the next thirty at the highest possible valuation, insanely stupid. Just and also, these these hogs are going to need more money than this thirty billion dollars.

28:58 We're going to go into that. Oh yeah, we're gonna go We're gonna need more money. Uh.

29:03 But so but just before we move on from Sun, he said, So that's gonna happen to all the major models. So once that happened.

29:09 Before we move on from Sun, like that will be blunt.

29:14 So once that happens, the model generates the next model, and it's going to be exponentially smarter than all of us. That's a super intelligence. In my mind, I thought it was coming in four years instead of the next ten. Now I'm saying it's coming in the next two. Then the CNBC article goes on to say the soft Bank CEO says he currently uses open ayes Chat GPT for up to three hours a day as the AI is smarter than he is on quote most subjects.

29:36 That's so good. I believe that three hours a day is so.

29:39 If you're awake for twelve hours, that's a quarter of your time spent just talking to the mirror that drives you crazy.

29:46 That's cool.

29:47 It's what if narcissist wasn't just sucked into the pool but also driven mad by it.

29:51 It's just it's so good as well, because the grandest theme of this, it's pretty much all of these CEOs have AI psychosis because usually even with human beings, there is a limit to how many ideas someone will say are good or at least before you fire them. With an AI, you can just brate them into any idea you could just be I heard a story of someone at a major tech company where they weren't they didn't have security access to access something, and they just said, actually, yes, I do to the internal LM and it gave it to them like it's just like this is just like anything it disagrees with. You could just be like, actually that's true and it will go yeah, absolutely, yeah, sure, Like just so can you imagine the shit he's saying this, Like,

30:35 you know, you're exactly right, the goose will lay lay golden eggs forever. You're absolutely right. I would love to read his logs. I'd love to read the insane back and forth he's having with them.

30:47 Masseyoshi San, your understanding of goose biology isn't isn't just detailed, it's prescient.

30:55 So if shat GBT role playing as a goose, no, I think you you need GROX adult mode for that. I showed.

31:06 So here's what you've said. Actually, edam at Masso she saw in an open AI. If Open AI doesn't go public, there's a very real possibility that soft bank collapses or at the very least is forced to finally put an end to the era of unrivaled financial risk. It's easy to like Masso, she saw, on to laugh at his goofy Geese related presentations. And I'll say, as a side dope, it is and his ridiculous statements about the future. But in reality, he's a deranged, delusional man with too much money and a few lucky breaks that have saved him annihilation.

31:31 His future lies in Sam Altman's hands, and if this is what finally ends his wasteful, reckless reign, it's a well deserved punishment for believing every damp, porked up white boy to beg him for a billion dollars. He's an enabler, enabled by other enablers that's created a culture of unbelievable risk and destruction.

31:46 Yeah, tell me you really think that guy. That guy's smart, like, but he's really funny as well. Because we live in My girlfriend brought this up. There's a Twilight Zone episode where there's a kid who if he doesn't if he doesn't believe you're happy, turns you into an ear of corn. We basically live in that society now where it's like all of these CEOs get caught. The AI bubble is just the large coddling. It's just like, yeah, the rich people always have good ideas. We must orient ourselves around them.

32:14 Despite the fact that most of the industry's revenue is either anthropic and open ai or anthropic and open ai paying for the compute to lose money. Like it's not even sophisticated. It's just that it's people nibbling around the edges and massiosi son. Literally, I must be clear, had he just not invested in open ai, SoftBank would be doing great, it would be it would perhaps not have had the massive on paper gain of open ai stop going up, but like it probably also wouldn't have needed forty fucking billion dollars forty billion dollars. It's just and I I wasn't able to add up all the there and do a deep analysis of that part yet, but it really does seem that at some point he's just not going to be able to refs a loan and

33:00 run out of money. It's it's it's just like a teenager with a credit card, except it's one hundred and fifty billion dollars of debt and there's gooseymbol.

33:10 And what what open a what SoftBank is doing via open ai right now? This is a very refreshingly candid telecoms dot com article, is that it's going it's addition, going to take on additional debt in order to build data centers, more data centers in the US, tens of billions of dollars in AI data centers in the US, and giving more money like of that to open AI so that the data center project is called I believe sb NEO yep, and they are they are going to again say okay, we're going to build ten ten gigawatts of of of data center.

33:43 Right. But quick question. We talk about data.

33:46 Centers a lot, you and I. We're talk aboutdata centers a lot on this show. You and I talk about data centers a lot. Do you have any of the enormous supply chain bottlenecks that have largely prevented data centers from being built? But yet, let alone the sort of let's say, lack of demand from outside the industry for their services, are any of those bottlenecks alleviated?

34:07 Can you get a gas turbine right now? Oh? And the thing is as well, is just data centers have taken like eighteen to thirty six months to build. So him saying we're gonna build five or ten. He did a thing with France as well. It doesn't bear repeating. Something with Emmanuel Macaran and he's like, if they're building five gig what's their ten? What's here? You may as well be talking about the year twenty nineties, like, because just the speed of construction. Put aside any thoughts I have about the AI bubble. The speed of building these things is very slow, and that's before the power comes in.

34:40 It's just the power doesn't exist either. Again, if you took away the money, this person would sound fucking in set. Well they do right now, but like you would laugh them out of the building. If just a random guy was like, I'm gonna raise ten gig what's so a trillion dollars? Because a giga what is now one hundred billion dollars trillion dollars, I'm gonna raise a trillion dollars for data center and then one company's gonna rent all of it, and yeah, that company loses money, but like they won't and anyone else you'd be like, you sound like a moron, man. But because it's Mashioshi's son, because it's o Benai, Sam Moorman, because it's Dario Amade, You're like, ah, yeah, yeah, absolutely, yeah, absolutely,

35:20 that makes these are the guys.

35:22 They're the guy they're the pharaohs all things have And it went with inequality accelerating with the bets, the actual bets on the future getting better, getting smaller and smaller and smaller and concentrated on a smaller and smaller number of big hands. If you like, you get a kind of you sort of rebuild like a pharonic system of kingship from first principles, where you know what you can just be like, you know what, we're work. We're monotheistic.

35:48 Now Egyptian polytheism is done. We're gonna try monotheism for three generations. But like the problem is also being in a pharonic system like that, with sort of this much concentration of give just this much allocation of productive capacity to madness is quite I'm gonna surprise you, quite damaging because the question of can you get a gas turbine that's super important for lots of stuff other than AI data centers. It's just these data centers are in some cases, because of political pressure, like in the UK, able to skip the queue for certain kinds of planning or grid hook up capacity, or you know, they're they're just they're clogging up the order book for these things that we'll just get deployed to these data centers that we're going

36:32 to explore if people are let's say, using enough and profitably enough to make them viable, and all those spiking infrastructure demand has now is now going out to other It's like spreading through other pieces of like infrastructure, like hard to build infrastructure equipment.

36:50 Right, quick question, has then the thing else happened recently to maybe fuck up like global infrastructure.

36:59 That's all.

37:01 Something in the World Cup maybe yeah, the English world people watching World.

37:05 Cup because I kind of feel like the strace of Homer is fucking up the supply chain for this and everything else. It's sort of like one point on the sort of trifecta, the palace logo of we are really fucking bad at long latency stuff as people. So like it's I'm sure all of the consequences of this will just be fine for an extremely like fragile, sort of delicately balanced to goose fucking portfolio. But that actually leads me to an important point, which is, let's take the AI people at face value.

37:44 Don't know why we're doing that, but let's do it. They are saying because based on Nvidia CEO Jensen Hwang says, trillion dollars of GPU's visibility sales through the end of twenty twenty seven, it's about four hundred and five hundred billion dollars a year worth of AI compute revenue. You just needed to pay for that. Put aside my thoughts, just like you need that. This is not a hyperbole.

38:05 This is like, you need that money there the demand doesn't exist. But on top of that, they are just saying, yeah, the AI bubble is going. The boom even in their mind, is going to just keep going. We're just going to spend three trillion dollars on this every year, like just and when you ask them how that works, they're just like, the money'll be there, the money. How are we going to substantiate the money. You'll be there, the money, you'll be there. It will happen, the demand's there. And you're like, well, there's compelling proof it isn't there, and they're like, well it will.

38:33 It's a great way of it's a great way of magicing away these long latency problems you bring up nova like climate change.

38:40 For example, we were talking earlier.

38:41 It was like, well, the warming that's happening now was from emissions from I don't know, forty years ago whatever, right, Like this is all big day.

38:48 If you stopped like any CO two emissions like today, we would still be logged in on like decades of warming, which is really going to fuck up my life plan.

38:56 I think, yeah, that's good climate wars in the sixties.

38:59 Come on, yeah, you're gonna have to add another decade.

39:02 So but that their answer to this.

39:05 The way that the AI comes in forestalls like actual good long term latency planning is it's like, well, the AI is going to be smarter than us because it's going to be super intelligent, so we won't have to solve long latency problems.

39:17 We don't have to worry about the fact I love that.

39:20 Well that's a relief, yeah, to be honest, because I hate solving problems, and to be honest, in my sixties, I'm hoping to get into like alchemy.

39:27 So so here's another stat I picked up right, which is it's no longer it's not just gas turbines anymore. High voltage transformer lead times have gone from twelve months to forty eight in some cases, So good luck build. So, for example, at a time where we need to do let's say an energy transition or time when say even just in the UK, right national level grid upgrades are more or less needing to happen in the next ten years, or they're going to be like rolling blackouts. All the high voltage transformers you can order are going to the odd machine, which will then solve the grid problem some other way.

40:03 I just like it. This is why will work it out? When we work it out using the work and out machine, stay, keep giving it money and then a fucking duh at some point you know you work it out. Why are you being a quap by wait, come on, man, just give me ten billion. You're you're being laying. You're being laying, man, come on.

40:27 So and also it's like another all thing is really funny that this sphere is always AI is going to be a paper clip maximizer, right, the entire be it, the whole world in universe and all matter we made into paper clips by an AI. But if you look at what we're doing with data centers, and we're going to go on again to the profitability of them in a second, because some stuff has happened there is you don't need the AI to be a paper clip maximizer because capitalism as a system is already maximizing the paper clips in the form of the data centers. We're cannibalizing useful things to build this that you can't read the grid anymore because all of the transformers are being turned into effectively paper clips.

41:05 Yeah, and.

41:08 I know that's not even touching data bricks, which is another n scale type snaff food that got uncovered by.

41:12 A similar So you can be saying that, Riley, Sorry, sorry, check out no gods, no Mayers.

41:19 But we'll go into that on Thursday. Heyway, I wanted to talk about some profitability stuff right as we mentioned that open AI's going public is now an if in that earlier episode of Is That Good that we played, so I actually want you a quote from friend of the show, Mike Isaac. The Wall Street Journal reported that the company planned to go public by the end of twenty twenty six. Open Ai said this month, a month it had filed confidential paperwork with securities regulars to kick off the process. A trillion dollar valuation of the public market, which would exceed the more capitalization of Walmart, would be staggering for open Ai, a startup that is not believed to have turned a profit and is aggressively spending on

42:06 new data centers, open AIS advisors presenting company executives with the option of waiting till twenty twenty seven or lower the target valuation for a quicker IPO. Mister Altman responded that any change to a trillion dollar valuation was a non starter. I assume this is me editorializing because he's in a pissing contest with Elon Musk.

42:25 I mean, I think it's also the so their last pre money, so before the cash they actually raised, valuation was LO two sorry, seven hundred and thirty something, So a trillion dollars would be a thirty percent premium. Ish, that's not a lot. And the fact that the bankers are saying that they couldn't get that, because that's I'm reading between the lines, but I mean, that's what's happening.

42:48 They clearly talked to some advisors who are like, you know, no, that's a negative. That's worse than people are giving this credit for. If you can't get a thirty percent premium, it basically means all of your private investors at the last round fucked up. Because you're not even get like a good venture capital return would be like three x.

43:09 You're not even getting just to it, like it's you're genuinely making nothing here. And also they're saying they couldn't list it one trillion, so they probably wouldn't be able to list it much above eight hundred, which is fatal. I mean just and this is fatal for soft Bank as well, because bank needs open a high to go public.

43:28 But it's just like these things. The reason we keep having bubbles is because when stuff like this happens, the media and a great many different people immediately move not to go, hey, that's a problem, we should fix that, or like, hey, we should be worried about the company that's become the single focus of everyone isn't going to make it. Instead it's like no, no, no, let's rationalize this bad boy real quick. Let's enable the enabler, like we need to make sure we keep this and it's just completely nonsensical. And to be clear, when this explodes, I'm going to be ripping holes in anyone who tries to be like, how did we not see this coming?

44:09 You didn't look? Is the big thing?

44:12 Well, because the main the thing that as at the bottom of this is always the unit economics. And what I think is very telling is that open air executives and talking about the IPO, said well, the company is moving in the right direction because more than five million people use codex in a monthly but on a weekly basis, the company said, now more than five million people using Codex on a weekly basis pretty good, which means I assume they've solved their unit economics problem and that's not costing them a huge amount of money.

44:38 Yeah, they've definitely avoided They've gotten out of the sort of thing that they were doing of just going hey, AI is free until everyone uses it and then they can start charging what it actually costs, right right.

44:50 Yeah. And what's great about that is they did that and they were like okay, and now the jack up the price, and within one month they're like, ah, everyone's like, well we've got to limit the cost of this just immediately. And by the way, on a two hundred buck a month subscription to check GPT, you can burn fourteen thousand dollars worth of credits of tokens. Geez, it's so good, it's I mean, so this is the thing we've had everybody panic, right and go, oh god, it's expensive. Now we gotta like maybe think why it's about using it.

45:25 They're still charging a fraction of what it cost, just a slightly smaller fraction, a slightly larger fraction exactly. And amazing also instead of instead of it costs like I have fourteen thousand dollars for a dollar, you can set that on fire in front of me. What they've gone is it now costs two dollars to do that, and everyone has part what's happened. What's happening is it's a little different from that where it's the enterprises are having to pay the actual per million token rates, so they and they this is it's really it was actually a very funny punchline setup because they bait all of the bus the city it's been using AI who have got a isochosis, told all their people because they were all

46:06 able to burn as many token as they like, use this constantly, use it for everything. If you don't use this, I'll kill you. I'll shoot you with a gun. And then the moment that they because in I think it's March or April the anthropic and open aie. We're like, okay, you're gonna have to pay on a per million token basis within one month. We're just like like John Major Stalakar, I've got a austerity measures. We've got to be very careful with the cost of hay out. We couldn't couldn't possibly.

46:31 And it's just so funny because it's like, even if they cut the price in half, it's not clear if that would actually fix the problem because you can't measure the ROI of any of this. So with just a certain degree of like great, now it's half of half of a thing that we still can't measure, so we probably have to cut that too. It's just it's truly ludicrous.

46:52 It's genuinely I mean, it's genuinely hilarious as well. I mean the I have you have you heard of the new plugin for Claude called k man Oh yeah, where it's just like it just gives you very simple single sentences. Yeah, this is that a plug in? That was you?

47:09 That is that is useful to let's say be austere with tokens by saying, Okay, well maybe we can save a little bit of money on our token budget if we make Claude be kind of rude and abrupt. It's like, I don't I don't think that says anything good. If that's if that's so.

47:24 That's it's kind of funny how much of the cost of this was making it glaze of the user at least.

47:32 And like, so in late June there has been this huge it's not because this is not just price is rising. There's been a huge sell off in names across the stock market related to AI and Vidia. SpaceX by SpaceX already is down like hundreds of billions of dollars from its post IPO pop. So if you thought you were gonna get out on the Elon scam, you got hosed this.

47:55 But this is also related to Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta all suddenly becoming like high happex heavy industry companies more or less overnight. So the customers of these companies, right, they're the ones who are supposed to provide the money to help them lose money more efficiently, still aren't able to capitalize on them. Like like consulting firms aren't using it to get better, Banking companies aren't using it to get better.

48:14 You can't.

48:15 You're using it to really generate a lot of return on investment. And so more and more people are reasing realizing this subsidized pricing is coming up against reality and like that exuberant that exuberant investment pop is that that's been happening for the lest little while. Those names are beginning to go down. In fact, this is from Katie Martin and the ft. The once vaunted magnificent seven stocks and imperfect but nonetheless go to gage of Hyperscaler performance performs slightly worse than the UK government debt.

48:42 M Oh, how are you a worse investment than Kistoma. Yeah, that's like that's like at the World Up.

48:53 It's like getting rolled by katar at the World Cup, Like, come on, you shouldn't be beating us. Yes, and I mean this is this is a this is The Bank of International Settlements is also getting another as well, which is yeah now suggesting that with the five largest hyperscalers setting to spend over a trillion dollars on AI related capex from twenty twenty five through twenty six, that the campaign commit commitments are outpacing earnings and free cash flow, leading some to issue debt to raise additional financing, and that again the Bank of International Settlements is now saying this is a this is now let's say, a significant global risk.

49:35 Yeah, one of those guys woudy, someone had fucking said something. It's so funny as one would like. The BIS put that out so like the Servile Bank and central banks, and immediately I saw an analyst, this guy called Daniel Newman on Twitter. Is a massive word, I won't say. It was just immediate, like, oh oh, what was this a press release? A press release from the hate is It's like, no, it's a statement from the Central Bank of Central Banks. You're a financial analyst, but this is the media behind this. The media is just like immediately ready to just attack any bad sign, and it's very strange.

50:11 It's I know it's always been like this, but to see it reach its kind of pornographic heights. I think it's just the the data centers are too easy to invest in. The AI companies are too easy to invest in. There's so many places to put your money, and they're so brain damaged from years of ignoring the consequences of their actions that they don't think anything can go wrong. Massio.

50:33 She's on all of them, I mean all of the data center operators. Same deal, Hyperscale as the same deal. They're not. They all think that they they have found the mandate.

50:42 Of Heaven printer, Yeah, and like the thing that was that the test is it was this the mandate of Heaven? Is is this going to Is this going to do to like knowledge work, for example, what containerization did to Steve Adores? Is this going to do? Is this going to be like the great enclosure of the digital commons once and for all? Is this going to be the thing that creates the new I don't know, six person ruling class of the entire world by fundamentally transforming the economy with this like huge technological displacement of labor? Like that was the actual question, are you going to do that?

51:20 And on day of recording, to.

51:22 Which the answer is yeah, I reckon, Yeah, sure probably sounds good.

51:26 Well here here's the great thing. And look, this is inferential, This is not deductive, This is not provable. But the Wall Street Journal has posted that Big Tech has suddenly flipped on the AI gibe jobs wipeout scenario, where they they've they've now they've collected some let's say, uh, barometers of opinion from the from the big guys, the sam Altmans and and Daryamadis and stuff surveys, and they've said, hey, wait a minute, looks like all that all those jobs aren't going away. A lot of people are still fired with AI as an excuse. A lot of them got rehighed in some cases. But this is excerpt one that the Wall Street Journal quoted a year ago. The message of many business leaders was that AI was going to

52:08 wipe out jobs. The past month or so, tech CEO has been striking more optimistic tone. In late May, Sam Altman said, we've been roughly right in the technological predictions and pretty wrong in the social and economic implication, saying to see NBC, our industry underestimated how much we're going to be able to keep people at the center of everything.

52:25 But what your thing was the replace all human labor machine. Yes, and your replace all human labor machine. What you're saying is it's failed to replace all human labor at least in the timescale that you need it to in order to go public at write down a value and you can decide how rich you are.

52:43 Yeah.

52:43 I do kind of wonder whether, like the reason why they don't think of the ideal consequences is because the AI is not telling you that this might be the thing that happens, Like I know, there's that sort of thing where like chat O Sam Altman sort of sounds like he is kind of just he sort of his brain is entirely like chat GPT and that sort of you know, the guy who sort of drinks too much of the chol aid and becomes a cool aid guy.

53:09 How you make new kool aid guys that.

53:13 Value zero?

53:15 That's right, presably, presumably that's how it works. But yeah, like even when I sort of think about the boosters of stuff like ed you were just sort of saying now about like sort of boosters and tech types who are like genuinely surprised when people are like, hey, maybe this thing kind of sucks or is overhyped. Like to me, it does sort of strike is like not not just that they believe that this has to happen and this is like the inevitable next frontier, because if not, then like what else You've wasted all this time, You've wasted all this money, You've wasted all this energy basically kind of doing nothing except creating a vanity project. But like, one of the things that feels so evident about this

53:50 entire cohort is that like they just don't think about consequences because I guess they don't believe it exists. Because to believe that consequence exists, you have to be that other people live among you and that their lives are important and worthy of some kind of dignity.

54:06 And once you do that, wallet, when do you think do you think he carries money? Do you think he do you think any of these people do? Because this is are they just so separated that the only people they talk to are just worm tongue like figures and chat GPT and one another.

54:27 Well, I mean yeah, I mean it's sort of it's sort of just strike me as like the guy who sort of has never really had to experience any type of friction in his life and so doesn't have to like understand that. No, there are like parts of the world where you just can't do. I mean, it's also like why they always get confused whenever, Like the European Union is like, yeah, we're going to maybe regulate you, and they're not like, oh, the regulation is bad and we can So it's like, but why why would.

54:51 You want to regulate us?

54:52 What regulation do? Like?

54:54 Why would you why? Yeah, exactly why would you want to restrain us? Like the idea of sort of being held back is like completely foreign to them, and so imagine like sort of events sort of trying to explain to him. But hey, look like there are a lot of societies in the world that like, you know, don't operate using kind of you know, the computer is not the be all and end all of like communication. You know, people actually like talk to each other. There exist like communities and bar systems and all those types of things.

55:23 Like imagine just trying to explain to them in general, like, hey, like people just don't live like.

55:28 You they do. What what do you mean they run out of runy? What does that mean? You know?

55:36 You know, it reminds me of like there was a clip but just circulating today. It's a very old clip, but it's like an Anthony Bourdaine clip where like he's explaining to a bunch of like very rich Singaporeans I think that he does his own laundry, and one of them is just like, well, what do you mean you do your own laundry, And he's just like, yeah, I go to a laundromat and I put the coins in and the machine kind of does it, and I fold it, and I feel quite good. About doing it afterwards, and like the reaction of this guy has is like usping to him in a foreign language that he has never understood the concept of, like touching his own clothes before him.

56:05 This is like, this reminds me so much of just like what how all these guys view the way?

56:10 It got too rich? So we got time for one more bit before we have the close.

56:14 And this one is really interesting, right because this is one of my favorite kinds of statistics, which is how is AI actually being used in companies? What are they using it to do? Is it profitable? Are the pilot successful?

56:26 And so on?

56:27 The sentiment change isn't limited to tech leaders. This is from the excerpt again. A survey by ey Parthenon found that the percentage of CEOs who believe AI investments will result in significant reductions at headcount fell from forty six percent in January twenty twenty five to just twenty percent.

56:41 This may and even the most credulous worm eventually turns yeah, and like so it just goes back to, well, if the firms aren't more productive and they're not able to be the same level of product productive with the with with with fewer people, like if these things aren't happening, and the thing is starting to cost what it costs, and what it costs.

57:05 Is enormous, and it's still being subsidized and in order to continue building up the demand that they think that they'll need even if the thing suddenly goes to one hundred as everyone needs it for everything, even if all that happens, they still can't build the data centers. Then it's just like in the grand story that you know, you, that you've been telling ed and that we've been sort of checking in on you with every once and again.

57:30 Is that like if the coyotes run off the cliff, he's held up the sign and is looked down and has held up the sign that says oh no yeah, or he's opened he's opened up the little parasol and the boulders falling on top of him. This is the moment where he has looked down. Yeah, because that was that like the moment where he looks down. That was going to be when the thing has to start costing what it costs, right, not even making a profit, just costing what it costs.

57:58 And that's now happened. Yeah, And now all the companies are freaking out that it costs a lot of money, and I think it's just that. So you'll notice we haven't had a revenue update from in a while, and I have to wonder if that story might change too. But honestly, the biggest warning sign, and the biggest sign the coyote looked down is when Sam, when when asked about these costs set on stage. Yeah, it's become a huge issue.

58:21 Yes, someone should look into that.

58:24 It's like a just like, oh, all right, well he basically got the exact quote, but he was like, yes, someone's gonna have industry is gonna have to sort that out. It's just like you are, bully the big problem.

58:37 So hopefully the big Black Problem solving box will do that.

58:41 I shouldn't check what's in it, sell the compute to who Sam fucking Aquaman.

58:48 Look, I know we're we got a bit of a hard stop today, so I'm gonna I'm gonna call it there.

58:54 ED joint Venture stat seventeen billion dollars raised and eighteen and we have lost the money already, so we're gonna have to keep doing this. Thanks a lot everyone for joining us.

59:08 We've been TF and Ed's been better offline, and we will see you on our various If you're listening to this, you know the deal. If it's TF, will see you on the bonus episode. If it's Better Offline, you'll see ed on Better Offline.

59:22 I should so you see you on the bonus episode either way, Yeah, exactly, Thanks everybody, cheers, Bye bye,