Israel Vote Too Close to Call, Bolsonaro Flees Brazil, UK's 'Mañana Budget'

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0:12 It's Wednesday, the 28th of October. I'm Caroline Hepka in London. Coming up today, exit polls suggest no clear winner from Israel's election with Netanyahu's decades-long run as prime minister on the brink. Chancellor John Healey is expected to tax UK banks to create what he calls breathing space for voters in his first budget later today. And Brazil's Flávio Bolsonaro has reportedly fled to America just days after losing the election.

0:41 Let's start with a roundup of our top stories. Israeli opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are deadlocked in the country's first election since the 2023 Hamas attacks. Exit polls show both blocs on track to secure 51 out of the 120 seats in the Israeli parliament, the Knesset.

1:02 With votes still being counted, neither side seems to have a clear path to a majority. Eisenkot called on Netanyahu to step down after the exit poll was released.

1:15 This morning, the people of Israel went to a referendum on the leadership that will guide Israel in the coming years. Tonight, we received an answer. The public decided in favor of change. The coalition of failure has lost the trust of the people. The Israeli public voted against the continuation of Netanyahu's tenure as Prime Minister of Israel.

1:38 That is the former general and opposition leader, Gadi Eisenkot, speaking there via a translator. Should he become prime minister, it would mark a stunning defeat for Netanyahu, who has dominated Israeli politics for much of the past three decades. Netanyahu says the country needs a right-wing government.

2:01 We must establish a strong right-wing national government. This is what needs to be done. It is forbidden, simply forbidden, to endanger Israel by forming a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties.

2:13 Benjamin Netanyahu there, also via a translator. Turnout in this Israeli election was close to record highs, reaching almost 78%. Votes are still being counted, but with neither of the two main blocs expected to have a majority, it also raises the prospect that Israel could hold another election within months.

2:34 Oil prices have risen above $ 115 a barrel on that tightly contested Israeli election and also reports that the U.S. could renew operations against Iran. According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. has warned several Gulf countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the U.S.

2:54 Midterms.

2:54 Bloomberg's Stuart Livingston Wallace explains the risk of escalation.

2:59 Trump has repeatedly and publicly been very clear about what his two options are. And the rhetoric has very much been on the side of, you know, restarting hostilities. At the same time, you've seen the U.S. move in substantial amounts of hardware into the region. So a third strike carrier group and there are other troops coming in as well as batteries and so on and so forth, points in the same direction. And then I think when you see the reaction from the regional actors in terms of the visit to Tehran, China now coming in and others getting involved, It's all pointing in the same direction.

3:30 The update from Bloomberg's Stuart Livingston Wallace. After Iran's supreme leader reiterated his country's conditions for ending the war, Moshe Mahamaneh wants the U.S. to end its naval blockade and lift sanctions. Washington wants concessions on Iran's nuclear program. Now, to breaking European bank earnings, UBS's pre-tax profit met estimates coming in at $ 3. 59 billion for the third quarter. Switzerland's largest bank missed its net income estimate. CEO Sergio Amati this morning says that the bank still plans to engage with the Swiss government over its plans for tougher capital rules.

4:07 BNP Paribas has brushed off concerns about France. It saw a surge in revenue from equities trading and announced a new $ 1. 3 billion share buyback. BNP Paribas' net income was € 3. 46 billion versus an estimate of € 3.

4:22 18 billion.

4:24 Meanwhile, Santander reported net income for the third quarter that met average analyst estimates. And Deutsche Bank reported net income of € 1. 5 billion, beating estimates of € 1.

4:34 45 billion.

4:35 The German bank's fixed income trading declined in the third quarter, but still slightly outperformed the big Wall Street banks. Bond traders are facing a tough backdrop as elevated interest rates weigh on debt issuance. SK Hynix is planning to return about $ 45 billion more to shareholders after its profits surge.

4:57 The world's second biggest chipmaker reported a quarterly operating profit of $ 62. 5 billion, beating projections by more than 7%. Bloomberg's Anthony Stevens says the results are a boost for investors.

5:11 Hynix gave the street pretty much what they wanted, a clean beat on income, clean beat on revenue, pretty strong numbers in terms of the margins. A shareholder return program came in line with the whispers that we were talking about yesterday. There's a buyback as well.

5:28 Our markets reporter, Anthony Stephen, speaking. The firm's confident outlook helped to spark a broader regional rally propelling sector names, including rival Samsung. SK Hynix's shares rose more than 10% in Seoul. Samsung gained more than 9%. To the UK now, where Chancellor John Healey is expected to tax banks to fund some measures to help voters struggling to make ends meet.

5:54 The Labour government is trying to win over consumers hit by high inflation whilst also staying fiscally prudent. The Chancellor says that his first budget will deliver breathing space.

6:06 This budget is designed to give households breathing space from some of the everyday costs, provide targeted support for businesses and self-employed people, and to start the long-term action needed to get energy costs down for good.

6:18 Healy speaks later today in Parliament. The budget comes as borrowing costs rise around the world, limiting his room for manoeuvre. Healy is expected to announce an increase in the national living wage and support on heating bills, among other measures. The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged today, but bullish Treasury bets could face a sharp reversal if the Fed is more hawkish than expected, given a recent build-up in long positions. Goldman Sachs' vice chairman and former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan says that policymakers could afford to hold off on raising rates.

6:55 I think some of the bleed and the broadening of inflation is because of that structural change, not because of excess demand. Now, there's no right answer on this, but that's the debate they're having. And that may be one of the reasons if they skip October, that's the reason they would skip. It's not that they won't keep hiking, but they want to make sure they understand these cross-currents.

7:19 Goldman Sachs' Robert Kaplan there. CME Group open interest data shows traders whittling down short positions in treasuries over the past week. Meanwhile, JP Morgan's weekly survey shows net long positions at their highest level since early September. Lastly, defeated Brazilian election candidate Flavio Bolsonaro has reportedly arrived in Miami, Florida after fleeing his home country. A senior State Department official said the U.S. would grant visas to Bolsonaro and his family. Here is Bloomberg's Brazil country chief Felipe Pacheco.

7:54 It's been reported by O Globo, a major newspaper here in Brazil, that he arrived in Miami and he met his brother Eduardo and his family in Miami. Flavio supposedly fled with his wife and two daughters. yet the details, we don't even know if that's, there's been no confirmation by his aides, by his lawyers, all of them said today that they did not know where he was. There have been reports in the Brazilian media saying that Eduardo, the brother who lives in the US, was actually the one arranging all of this.

8:29 That was our Brazil country chief, Felipe Pacheco. Multiple allies of Bolsonaro, who faces criminal investigations in Brazil, told Bloomberg that they tried to contact him but had not heard back. Brazil's President Lula said the act of leaving the country was, quote, shameful. And those are our top stories for you this morning.

8:48 Absolutely hectic Wednesday in terms of markets, earnings, elections, a Fed rate decision and a UK budget. The cost speed this morning surging 6.7%. A huge beat for SK Hynix. Profits soaring. Samsung Electronics and Kyosha shares jumped. The border MSCI Asia Pacific index is up by 1.4%. Having said that, stock futures for the NASDAQ may be up by half of 1%. But US stocks 50 futures are down a quarter of 1%. We still have earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft out later. Crude oil Brent is trading at $ 115. 67 up 1.6%. The Fed not expected to move on interest rates, but there is a press conference to come. 10-year Treasury yields at 5.02 up two basis points.

9:34 Those are the markets.

9:37 Now, in a moment, we'll bring you the latest on the Israeli election with no clear winner and record turnout.

9:42 What comes next?

9:44 But before we get to that, another story has caught my eye today. Yes, it's Budget Day in Britain and we will have full coverage from 12 noon. Of course, the chancellor standing up at 12 30 in parliament ahead of that two of the most high profile awkward squad critics of the government appear to be jim o'neill the former conservative minister goldman sachs banker and andy haldane president of the BCC, former chief economist at the Bank of England.

10:12 And Bloomberg Opinion columnist Rosa Prince has been writing about this, saying that actually the prime minister should pay attention to these two finance heavyweights. Both have worked for Burnham when he was mayor of Manchester. But interestingly, neither of them has actually ended up going into number 10. Jim O'Neill does call Burnham's idea of growth in every postcode lunacy.

10:35 But Chancellor John Healey appears to actually have listened to him in terms of not equalising capital gains and income taxes in the budget today. At least that's the expectation. That's what Rosa Prince has been writing about. Haldane has been quite a lot more critical, I'd say. And I got to hear that firsthand in a pre-budget Ipsos panel because I interviewed Haldane last week and I asked him about what he wants Chancellor John Healey to do today.

11:03 And Haldane told me that the fiscal risk facing this government and others has gone up materially. And he says it's not prudent to run down your insurance cover at this point. In fact, he says it's an odd reaction. He wants to see headroom reduced. of at least £ 20 billion.

11:20 Let's see what actually comes out in the budget.

11:22 He says that we can't afford to wait till tomorrow to be fiscally chased. He is making an appeal for upfront fiscal chastity in his words. So he wants action, tough political action to rein in spending. Let's see if that is what we get. Rosa Prince saying that Haldane is right. I'm going to put a link to her opinion column in our podcast show notes for you. Now, though, to the Israeli election, which has seen record high voter turnout, no extension of voting hours and a dead heat between Netanyahu and Eisencott. Joining us now, Stuart Livingston-Wallace, who leads our team covering the Middle East and North Africa. Good to speak to you, Stuart. The Israeli election has the two main parties neck and neck. Will the smaller Israeli

12:09 Arab parties be kingmakers here?

12:11 What happens next?

12:12 Yeah, good morning. So, I mean, it's been a rapidly evolving situation through the night. I mean, as of about five minutes ago, they were about 52% of the way through the vote counts. The numbers for each block have been changing substantially, you know, and certainly in the last six hours or so, it looks like Netanyahu's block is inching ahead, but... it's way too early to call it.

12:33 And as you say, maybe the Arab parties who look, at least as of now, they look like they're going to get about 16 seats. They could well be the kingmaker here. Quite what that's going to look like is difficult because we've only had one example of an Arab party actually joining the government. So, We may be in a situation where certainly Eisenkot is going to have to make a decision about which of those particular parties could be part of government. Would the other Arab parties with seats then have some sort of informal agreement? Would that be enough for him to form a coalition? Really hard to tell at this stage. But we may end up in a situation where, you know, it continues to be a dead heat. And we've had multiple exams of this

13:11 in recent years where, you know, potentially it's going to be weeks, if not months, to try and form a coalition. That may not happen at all. And they have to rerun the election. That's not a prediction. That's just sort of a reminder that Israeli politics is always complicated.

13:24 Yeah. And so it's a difficult question.

13:27 But how might Israel's security and foreign policy priorities change maybe?

13:31 Yeah.

13:32 Well, so if the Netanyahu bloc comes out of this on top, is able to form a governable coalition, then presumably one would assume no change from the policy we've seen in the last several years. If, on the other hand, Eisenkot's bloc manages to succeed and form that winning coalition, then it's not going to be a radical change of policy, but you will see nuances there, and I think important nuances, the most important of which potentially is that he has said publicly he doesn't think regime change in Iran is achievable through military means. On the other hand, it's not like he's, you know, saying we need to hold off entirely.

14:10 You know, he's also very clearly focused on stopping any development of a nuclear weapon and perfectly willing to do that through military means. So it wouldn't be a radical change, but there are slight differences there that may change the calculus in terms of the regional conflict.

14:26 Okay.

14:26 One other point. The Wall Street Journal reporting that the U.S.

14:30 Has told several Gulf nations to prepare for an intense military campaign, a short one after the U.S.

14:37 Midterms.

14:38 No decision seems to have been made reportedly.

14:40 So, how likely is that?

14:43 So I think you have to look at several factors. So you start with the movement of military personnel. So we know there's a strike carry group, a third one coming into the region. Still not clear if it's here as an addition or as a replacement. Two reports of military personnel being moved off U.S. bases, which, you know, was what we saw prior to the action in February and March. Also, non-essential diplomats and their families being moved around the region. Again, that's something of a sign. You've seen this somewhat unusual movement amongst the Gulf powers, plus Turkey, plus Pakistan, to try and engage in more serious diplomacy.

15:23 And you have other actors like Qatar in there as well. Plus, of course, the rhetoric coming out of the White House. Trump has been very explicit about this being a very serious option on the table after the midterms, quite whether that's the pivot point is a different matter. So all of that adds up certainly to an escalating situation on top of what is already now a pretty lively front between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia and continuing fighting in Hormuz itself against shipping. All of that adds up to quite an inflammatory situation quite how that ends up hard to hard to make that prediction but you know the next couple of weeks seem key in terms of getting some sort of resolution to which direction this will go.

16:01 Yeah absolutely okay Stuart thank you so much for being with us that is Bloomberg Stuart Livingston Wallace who leads our team covering the Middle East and North Africa stay with us more from Bloomberg Daybreak Europe coming up after this Now, let's turn to the UK. Chancellor John Healey is due to present his first budget, including potential tax hikes and measures to cut costs for consumers and businesses at 12.30pm today. The bond markets do seem to be less fraught about UK sovereign debt, but the budget still needs to deliver fiscal credibility amid better polling numbers and economic growth figures for the new Prime Minister, Andy Burnham.

16:48 Bloomberg's UK political editor, Alex Wickham, Antony UK economic reporter Phil Aldrich have been speaking to me about this. What should we expect from the 2026 UK budget?

17:00 Well, I think it's safe to say this isn't going to be a budget that blows your socks off. The government and the Treasury are very clear that this is a steady as you go kind of thing. Their main objective is to avoid any sort of bond market reaction and they don't kind of want to just get through it without causing trouble. That means what they call everyday fixes to the cost of living. So, kind of quite small tweaks rather than massive fiscal levers being pulled. They don't want to do tens of billions of pounds worth of tax rises like Rachel Rees did. You know, there might be a little tweak to the fiscal rules, but nothing massive in terms of new borrowing and, you know, basically not a great deal is the expectation.

17:50 Okay.

17:51 So, breathing room, everyday fixes, staying the path. Also, some of the comments that the Chancellor has made ahead of this budget. Phil, what do you think is going to be in this budget? Let's think about it from the consumer and voter perspective. The cost of living is one that the Chancellor is very focused on.

18:11 Yeah, he talks about breathing space a lot. And so, that does just mean giving households and businesses. He stresses businesses very much need help as well. Obviously, we've got the backdrop of the Iran war, energy prices, inflations up, borrowing costs are rising as a result. So, there is this kind of squeeze happening. on everyone's living standards. So, you know, there is, as Alex said, they talk about everyday fixes. So, it is some really small things like tariffs are being taken off a can of baked beans.

18:40 But that's, you know, there are broader things going on as well. Like he's already taking VAT off household electricity bills. And there's, we expect something on fuel duty, at the budget. So, drivers are basically protected from rises, anticipated inflation index rises in fuel duty. This is something that they've frozen for the last decade or more. That's a common policy. Then the other thing is national living wage. So, minimum wages are going up. So, that should help households with. And they're going to be going up a bit more than people had anticipated at the start of this year. The Low Pay Commission thought 3.7%. It looks like it's going to be around 4%. So, That's a little bit of extra help as well. So, that's the sort of backdrop

19:24 for the cost of living issues.

19:26 Yeah, absolutely.

19:27 Alex, in terms of the other side of things, tax hikes, maybe for banks, maybe a VAT crackdown. What does all of this mean for businesses? I'll just mention that I spoke to the boss of Iceland on Bloomberg Radio.

19:41 Richard Walker.

19:42 He said that the tax take is at an all-time high, that Iceland's margins are wafer thin, that it's exceptionally expensive. to do business. And I don't think politicians necessarily appreciate that. So that's the kind of business perspective, or at least one business view.

19:59 I think it's really interesting that Andy Burnham becomes Prime Minister. You might have expected a big pivot to the left and, you know, more taxes, wealth taxes, taxes on businesses. Well, they've ruled out hiking capital gains tax. They are talking all the time about how they don't want to raise taxes on either people or businesses any more than Rachel Reeves did. So, slightly ironically, you're ending up in a position where Rachel Reeves is the one who did the big left-wing tax raising budget. and Andy Burnham's coming in and doing a much more kind of conservative budget that doesn't put up loads of taxes, I think it's pretty safe to say banks are going to get hit. Since that news emerged in the last couple of weeks, there's

20:39 hardly been a massive reaction from the banks saying, oh, well, you know, arguing their case. I think they're pretty much, you know, accepting that that's kind of a fair cop, especially under a Labour government. But otherwise, I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few other smaller tax rises, you know, where they try to raise taxes you know, a billion here, a bit of 500 million there sort of thing. But they're really trying hard not to have this be a huge tax raising budget.

21:04 Yeah.

21:05 Okay.

21:06 Do you think, though, that they are going to cut spending to deflate the ballooning, it has to be said, ballooning costs of health and disability benefits?

21:16 Because that's one of the other big questions looming here.

21:19 Well, this is where you get into the question of how many of the big decisions are they going to take during this budget or how many are they deferring? And the big criticism, I think, going into the day is that this is going to be a manana budget where everybody says, oh, defence spending, welfare cuts, you've pushed that all back to next month or next year. And there will be reprioritisations of government budgets and departmental budgets. Sure, they'll be able to say, as they always do, that we've caught some money here on clamping down on waste and tax evasion and all the rest of it. But in terms of big spending cuts, no. The spending review next year where they have to raise a lot of money to increase defence spending, that's where I think you'll

22:00 see the larger cuts that will be controversial for cabinet ministers.

22:04 Yeah.

22:04 Okay.

22:05 And all of this with a backdrop, as you well know, Phil, that... The government has very limited fiscal headroom. The government borrowing is larger than the OBR forecast. And so, along with the budget, we also get the Office for Budget Responsibility, the sort of, you know, neutral accountant in the background going to come up with its figures just as the budget is delivered. And so, that is also a big question.

22:31 How much headroom will there be? Is £ 15 billion going to be enough?

22:35 Yeah. Well, so, we had a totemic moment recently where the national debt rose above £ 3 trillion for the first time. That's a trillion pounds more than 2020. So, there's been a massive increase in borrowing just over the past six years. And that has added enormously to debt interest costs. And obviously, we're probably on November the 5th, the Bank of England is going to raise rates again. So, these issues are not going away. But the good news has been that the UK within the G7, as the IMF has been saying, is the standout country in terms of the projection for deficit reduction. So, falls in the levels of borrowing per year is better in the UK than it is among the other G7 nations. And John Healy was told to

23:16 stay the course by the IMF. So, we will see whether he has stuck to the course, which was for borrowing to fall in every year, or whether he has delayed that course by a year and letting borrowing rise which previous chancellors have tended to do in the short-term rise in borrowing, long-term sort of fiscal promises or fiscal fictions, as others would call them. Obviously, this comes down to the headroom issue. They had 23.6 billion as a buffer against the fiscal rules, which bite in 2029-30. At the last fiscal event back in March, that is expected to have fallen to about 15 billion. The markets do seem to think, investors, bond investors do seem to think that that would be sufficient. There wouldn't be a huge disruption.

23:56 And so, that would be manageable. And so, if they come in slightly above that, they'll get a bit of a reward, I suppose, from the markets.

24:04 Yeah.

24:04 And there's been a little bit of pressure off the government in the last few weeks because gilt markets have not been under so much pressure. The eye of Bondivest has been much more on France. Do you think that there might be, though, a fiscal event in spring? And that's a big question to ask. you know, the government only wants to have one of these big budgets per year.

24:24 But actually, is there going to be pressure if this is a manana budget, as Alex calls it? Is there going to be maybe chance of a fiscal event next year?

24:32 Yeah, then you come into the political framing of what they want to do. I personally think they're going to, they'll probably want to keep next year, the March spring statement small again, and then do everything in the autumn budget next year, including moving the spending review, which is usually due in the summer months, moving it to the autumn to be announced alongside the budget then. The forecast rolls forward a year in spring 2027, which means that the government will automatically get a little bit more money just because that rolling forward brings another year of tax revenue in and the spending totals are fixed.

25:13 Already, right?

25:14 So, they will have a little bit more breathing space, as they like to call it, themselves to potentially in spring, all else equal. I mean, obviously, what happens in the Middle East is going to be the overriding determinant here, because if everything kicks off even worse, then they'll have to do something big.

25:30 And also, the other factor will be the response, the reaction to the budget from MPs, from voters, from investors.

25:37 Alex, a last word from you.

25:39 Is there a possibility that we might get an early election from Andy Burnham? And what do you think the reaction to the budget may look like?

25:49 I mean, Andy Burnham has tried really hard to kill the idea that he wants an early election, but it just won't go away. And I think one of the reasons is that, you know, by having a manual on a budget, if that is what it turns out to be, There is an argument that he's saying, look, I can't make any of these big decisions under the constraints of the current Labour manifesto that I have to stick to in this parliament. I can't do massive tax changes. I can't change the fiscal rules too much. And so if I call an election, I get myself a mandate to say, yes, actually, I do want to transform the country and end 40 years of neoliberalism, as he promised on the steps of Downing Street when he became prime minister. You know, he's

26:34 going to need something bigger and an election would be the way to do it. The problem is, are the polls good enough at the moment? He would need to have a sustained, large poll lead. It's rising. I mean, he's eight, nine points ahead of where he was when he came in. And if that continues over the coming months, it'll be very tempting for him.

26:55 So, Alex Wickham, Bloomberg's UK political editor and our senior UK economy reporter, Phil Aldrich, thank you to them. Looking ahead to the budget, well, what does UK business want to hear from the Chancellor? I've been speaking to Fiona Eastwood, the CEO of Merlin Entertainment. This is the company behind Madame Tussauds and the London Eye that operates globally, of course.

27:15 In the UK, Fiona Eastwood wants an extension of the reduction of VAT, which went from 20% down to 5%. for June, July and August as her main ask from the budget.

27:29 If you look at our business, we are currently in one of our peak weeks of the year in Halloween, and our teams are busy preparing fright nights and other experiences. We're hoping we don't get any early scares from the budget today. And I welcome the steady as you go, particularly given Merlin, we are focused on a growth story at the moment. We welcome the VAT cut for the summer.

27:55 And that's our biggest ask for the budget is that that VAT is something that we see again because we saw the impact it had for hard-pressed families. We saw an immediate uptick from the trend we'd seen earlier in the year as families wanted to spend time at our attractions.

28:13 It's good for business. It's good for investment.

28:14 And also, it's good in terms of providing jobs for the economy in the U.K., Well.

28:19 What about the minimum wage?

28:21 If it goes up, surely that'll be a big extra cost for you.

28:24 I did hear that being one of the elements to come out. That would be disappointing. We would rather grow our business, invest in jobs that way rather than further costs on a business and indeed the leisure sector that's already seen in recent years a lot more costs coming onto the business. Hence, our ask is for a VAT reduction.

28:48 It makes us more competitive in terms of our European neighbours. We know that a lot of UK families choose to go to Europe because it works out cheaper, given the VAT rates there are half of what we have in the UK.

29:01 Yours is a global business, but you also have a big presence in the UK. There are inflationary pressures. There have been pressures on your brands, including Madame Tussauds. How do you think that the UK consumer is managing, given that we did see a bounce in consumer confidence over the summer, but that took a big hit in October?

29:22 Yeah, look, we are currently in Halloween and we've seen a very strong summer and we saw the impact of that VAT reduction had both in terms of our business. We've also seen the impact of the UK consumer confidence, particularly in the experience economy. We've seen our bookings up year on year and versus a trend in terms of Halloween.

29:45 If you take Thorpe Park, they're celebrating our 25th anniversary. So, we have seen improved trading off the back of better consumer confidence and the VAT reduction we saw over the summer.

29:57 But are you investing more in the UK? What would give you confidence to invest more?

30:03 Look, we are a UK-based business and we want to be able to invest in the UK economy. Indeed, next year, we have a record investment going into Chessington for Minecraft.

30:14 So, we continue to see the.

30:16 UK as an important part of our business. However, we do want some stability. We do want, as I've said, VAT reduction, particularly in light of the rumored tax on holidays that's coming down the track. So, to be more competitive, to have confidence in the UK economy, we want to see some support, particularly on the leisure business, which has taken quite a few hits in recent years.

30:41 Yeah, absolutely.

30:42 There is this talk also of more devolved powers across the UK. That's one of the main goals for Burnham and Healy. And indeed, this tourist tax that is going to come in, how difficult will that be to manage if that is also in the hands of local decision makers?

30:59 Look, for a UK-wide business, It's not ideal to have different taxes by region. At the same time, if those taxes are used to promote that region to UK, you know, the UK government and I'm on the tourism group wants to deliver. So we've got some pretty strong targets to attract income. tourism into the uk and indeed get domestic to stay in the uk how that's being applied is still uncertain and as i've said if we are introducing that then we'd expect to see a vat reduction to help our business and indeed the leisure sector as a member of the uk hospitality.

31:37 Board i can hear that there are some concerns about the budget but is that a fair reflection.

31:43 Look, if it's as steady as you go, in some ways that's positive. We've had some scares in previous budgets. As I said, we're finishing off our main season in terms of our theme parks. Halloween's proving to be successful for us. We had a strong summer. Anything that adds further costs into our business– after successive cost increases in recent years wouldn't be welcome and so what I'd ask our main ask is about VAT which I think I've said several times that's the position that we're taking and that's been our ask for several years we welcomed it over the summer as it did many families who came into our theme parks and took advantage of the VAT reduction.

32:23 Thank you for listening to Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.

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