Trump Midterm Push; Stevens and El-Sayed Split Ahead of Election

0:02 Bloomberg Audio Studios.

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0:10 Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.

0:11 And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today.

0:15 Karen, it's the final stretch. Today is the last day of campaigning before the midterm election that will determine control of Congress. And President Trump has one final speech planned this afternoon at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington, but not before a pair of rallies in the Midwest closing out about a month of campaigning for the president in mostly red states. In Salina, Kansas, President Trump warned his supporters what could happen if Democrats win tomorrow night.

0:42 They want to defund your police, abolish oil and natural gas, wipe out your life savings, bankrupt your family, take away your guns, mutilate your children and destroy the way of life that's given you something so special.

0:57 And in Dubuque, Iowa, the president said even a slim majority for Democrats could hurt his agenda.

1:03 People would say, oh, it's only a couple of votes. Those couple of votes, because of the power that they have in terms of the majority, those couple of votes will dominate politics.

1:14 And in an interview with the New York Post, President Trump said he might have to become Mr. Vito if Democrats take control tomorrow night.

1:21 Well, the final set of polls from the New York Times and Siena College, Nathan, show Democrats ahead of Republicans in almost all the battleground states that could determine control of the Senate. The surveys show Democrats leading in Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, a slight edge over Republicans in Alaska, and virtually tied in Iowa. Rutgers University polling director Ashley Koning says that lines up with what her surveys are showing.

1:47 She says the economy is the overriding issue of this campaign.

1:51 For the first time in over a decade, Democrats are actually seen as more favorable on helping the economy than Republicans.

1:56 And that is a complete flip from what we've seen in the past in polling.

2:00 And Rutgers polling director Ashley Koning appeared on Bloomberg this weekend. Catch the show Saturdays and Sundays at 7 a.m. Wall Street time on Bloomberg Radio and Television and the Bloomberg Business app.

2:11 Well, Karen, that time Sienna poll has Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers by 11 points in that state's Senate race. But that was before El-Sayed's primary opponent, Haley Stevens, made this announcement.

2:24 I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate.

2:29 Today.

2:30 I don't belong in Abdul's campaign.

2:32 Michigan Democrat Haley Stevens posted that video on X after appearing at a church event with Mike Rogers. Stevens had originally planned to appear with El Sayed and South Carolina Congressman Jim Clyburn at another church, but that appearance fell apart. over tensions with Israel and an outside group's campaign ad.

2:50 Nathan, in another major development ahead of tomorrow's vote, a federal judge has dismissed a Justice Department bid to decertify Alaska's Senate race if Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan loses by a small margin. DOJ is still mounting an investigation after the New York Times reported last week that Democrat Mary Peltola's team secretly recruited another Dan Sullivan to enter the race.

3:13 Senator Sullivan says he'll accept the outcome, though he says this doesn't look good for Peltola.

3:18 Whether or not this is legal or not, and I think, you know, there's some good arguments on both sides. You know, there's this anti-Klux Klan statute people should take a look at, certainly, that would maybe make this about not being legal at all.

3:34 And Republican Senator Dan Sullivan spoke on CNN's State of the Union. Mary Peltola has denied any involvement in the other Dan Sullivan's campaign.

3:43 Well, Karen, for full midterm election coverage, stay with Bloomberg. Tomorrow, Tuesday, November 3rd, we bring you America Decides. Bloomberg's David Gurra starts us off at 6 p.m. Wall Street time, followed by a special edition of Bloomberg Balance of Power with Joe Matthew and Kayleigh Lyons. They take you through all the results, giving you the context that matters. Live election night coverage starts tomorrow night, 6 p.m., on Bloomberg Radio, Bloomberg Television, and the Bloomberg Business app.

4:10 Well, Nathan, we turn now to the latest developments in the Middle East. Gulf Arab states fear another U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran once the midterms are over could unleash an even more destructive war across the region. We get more from Bloomberg's Middle East managing editor, Onur Ant.

4:26 There are essentially two options. One is to fight. And that's something that President Trump has hinted at repeatedly, saying that he can get the job done in his own words, finish the job in Iran. He also said that he is looking at a couple of possible targets in Iran, mentioning Afghanistan. Pickaxe Mountain, where there has been reports of renewed nuclear activity. The second option is to give diplomacy more time to avert a renewed round of fighting. And that's also something that we are seeing evident in the currently escalating pace of diplomatic activities in the region, primarily led by Qatar.

5:00 And Bloomberg's owner, Anne, says if the military strikes resume, Iran is threatening devastating retaliation.

5:06 Meanwhile, Karen, Russia and Ukraine both say their emergency warning systems have been hit by separate cyber attacks. Tony Halpin leads Bloomberg's coverage of Russia's economy and government.

5:16 Late last night, residents of Kiev were receiving warnings of the nuclear danger and then again of a chemical danger and warning that there was fighting on the streets of Kiev. and people shouldn't leave their homes. Clearly, people were very alarmed by that, and Ukraine's air defense forces said that their system had been hacked. Equally, Russia's emergency ministry said that their emergency situations alert app had also been attacked and that they're working to restore that. So it seems that both sides have suffered from cyber attacks on pretty crucial information.

5:45 Bloomberg's Tony Halpin says Russia has intensified attacks on Ukraine in recent months, including on civilian infrastructure. Ukraine's strikes on Russia have also increased in intensity and range, targeting military, energy and logistics facilities.

5:59 Well, we turn to the markets now, Nathan, where U.S. stock index futures are higher to start the week following last week's AI-driven sell-off. And Bloomberg's John Tucker joins us with the latest. John, good morning.

6:11 And good morning, Karen. Friday's stock sell-off showed investors have less tolerance for tech companies whose core businesses are slowing while AI spending surges. The Nasdaq declined almost 2.9 percent. Still, Gene Goldman at Citra Financial Group says any pullback is a buy-the-dip opportunity.

6:29 We have a very solid economic backdrop. We have strong corporate earnings. The economic backdrop is pretty important because you look at the stock market, the S & P 500, we've only had three bear markets without a recession, 1962, 87, and 2022. You need a recession to have a bear market. We just don't see one anytime soon.

6:47 And Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says there are clearing events ahead for the stock market that could take it lower temporarily, creating an opportunity for investors to buy in.

6:57 U.S.

6:57 Stocks have now been down three weeks in a row. Next up for investors, earnings from Apple after the close. I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.

7:05 John, thanks.

7:06 Oak Tree Capital Management's Howard Marks is weighing in on the recent AI sell-off. He says it has burst the bubble of tech infallibility.

7:15 To me.

7:16 What it says is it's somewhat burst the bubble of infallibility. You don't want to invest in something when everybody and his brother think it's can't lose.

7:25 Right.

7:25 Because you'll pay a price commensurate with that infallibility. I think that now people are saying, hold on, wait a minute. Let's be a little more thoughtful. Let's be a little more skeptical. That's very healthy.

7:38 Oak Tree's Howard Marks made those comments in an interview with Bloomberg. You can catch the full conversation on the Bloomberg Terminal, Bloomberg.com, and the Bloomberg Business app.

7:46 Well, Nathan, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is talking about the positive potential of artificial intelligence. He says AI is starting to assist in enabling the development of new sources of energy to help fuel its own development. And Altman made the comments at a forum in Abu Dhabi.

8:03 For a while, people have talked about AI as this new industrial revolution.

8:06 And, you know, that's okay.

8:09 But I think we're now seeing the potential of something much better.

8:12 And the way we've started talking about it is it feels much more like a new renaissance.

8:16 And Sam Allman says OpenAI has signed deals to deploy its technology across energy companies, investment firms, and government agencies in the United Arab Emirates. Time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. And for that, we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, good morning.

8:35 Good morning, Karen. A Learjet crash in South Florida Sunday has left all nine people on board dead. It plunged to the ground in Palm Beach County, Florida, hours after taking off from Austin, Texas, bound for the Bahamas. Authorities evacuated residents in a small community of trailer homes. It plunged 350 feet a second, falling nearly five miles in just over a minute. The pilot called in a desperate mayday.

9:00 722 Bravo Delta, we're descending 8,000.

9:03 Mayday, mayday, we're descending 10,000.

9:06 Feet per minute.

9:07 722 Bravo Delta, roger.

9:09 Declared emergency, 722 Bravo Delta.

9:12 We are in an oversea condition, descending.

9:14 20,000 feet per minute.

9:16 Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

9:19 Obviously, this was a cataclysmic plane crash.

9:22 It looked like a missile going down.

9:24 It left a big crater on the side of the road.

9:26 Aviation expert John Nance spoke to ABC.

9:30 The presence of the freezing rain, the presence of the altitude, it could easily have ended up in a situation where the airplane stalled and began to fall off of altitude and coming down very rapidly.

9:43 The NTSB will be on the ground later today. First responders in Arizona battled against another storm system as they raced to rescue people this weekend. In Phoenix and Scottsdale, they rescued motorists trapped in waist-deep waters. In Sedona, a residential neighborhood, partially turned into a river after a nearby Oak Creek overflowed. Highways were shut down. If Democrats take control of the House in the November midterms, Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries would likely become the first black speaker of the House in American history. He's facing calls from some in his party to impeach President Trump for a third time.

10:21 And Jeffries, speaking to ABC, says he's not ruling it out.

10:25 Would impeachment be a distraction from the work you're trying to do?

10:29 Well, we haven't ruled anything in and we haven't ruled anything out because we've made clear that We're focused on addressing.

10:36 The affordability crisis. Jeffries went on to say, we believe that it is important for Congress to function as a check and balance on and out of control of the executive branch. Global News, 24 hours a day and whenever you want it. With Bloomberg News Now, I'm Michael Barham. This is Bloomberg, Karen.

10:54 Thanks, Michael.

10:54 Time now for our Bloomberg Sports Update. And for that, we bring in John Stashower.

10:59 Thanks, Karen.

11:00 Week 8 in the NFL. Tampa Bay shut out Atlanta 16-0. The Buccaneers won the game despite not completing a single pass. That has not happened in NFL games since 1974. Furious comeback by the Arizona Cardinals to beat the Cowboys 33-30 in overtime. The Arizona kicker missed an extra point at the end of regulation but won it with a field goal.

11:20 Florida State has fired football coach Mike Norville. The Seminoles won 13 games in 2013, but 10-22 since. The school owes them $ 50 million. That's your Bloomberg Sports Update.

11:31 Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak coming up after this.

11:39 Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio. Nationwide on Sirius XM. And around the world on Bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg Business App. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

11:49 Good morning.

11:50 I'm Nathan Hager and we are down to the final day of the long campaign into the midterm election. President Trump's wrapped up a nearly month-long blitz through mostly red states with two rallies in states that have suddenly become battlegrounds for the GOP. Kansas and Iowa.

12:07 We're going to elect America first, Republicans up and down the line, all the way up and down. We're going to keep our nation strong.

12:16 That was President Trump in Dubuque, Iowa, yesterday. But the latest polling shows strength for Democrats in this final stretch. And joining us now... is Bloomberg News managing editor Jill Desis. Jill, I guess we'll have to wait and see whether the base turns out as President Trump might like following all these rallies. But how should we look at the closing message that we've been hearing from the president over this last several weeks? Good morning.

12:42 Yes, good morning, Nathan. Well, certainly you're seeing the president a bit on the back foot here. I think at this point, it seems pretty strong odds that the Democrats are going to take the House. It really comes down to the Senate, and Democrats seem increasingly optimistic that they have multiple routes to picking up a majority in the Senate.

13:01 There's seven seats that are closely locked in the polls, including a couple of those that are in traditionally reliably conservative bases that you might have held on to. What we've seen from the president is a lot of sort of the traditional quips. You've seen him try to rail the previous Biden administration over increases in the cost of living.

13:20 But ultimately, there is this question about how much the president's rallies can really help or whether they're actually a distraction for the GOP.

13:28 And some of the latest polling that we've seen from the New York Times and Santa College, to your point, shows some strength for Democrats in those battleground states that we've been talking about for the last several weeks. Where can we see potential surprises tomorrow night?

13:43 So right now we're seeing Democrats up in Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio. We're also seeing Democrats having a bit of an edge in Alaska and effectively tied with Republicans in Iowa. That's according to that New New York Times-Santa poll. that you just mentioned. So I think particularly when you're looking at those states like Kansas, like Iowa, like Ohio, places that in the past couple of presidential election cycles really have been pretty much guarantees for the conservatives. That's where you're looking at some of the surprises that Democrats may be able to find a foothold that gives them potentially not just a majority in the Senate, but also maybe as many as 52, 53, 54 seats.

14:24 Well, I guess we could call it a November surprise just yesterday in Michigan with Democrat Haley Stevens endorsing her primary rival, Abdullah Syed's Republican opponent in the general election, Mike Rogers. Could that have an impact in Michigan?

14:41 Yeah, this is absolutely fascinating. I think really kind of showing that there's still some of that split between moderate Democrats and more progressive Democrats. I think when you're looking at Michigan in particular, you're looking at a state that has a very large Muslim population relative to maybe some other states. Democratic nominee Abdullah Syed obviously prevailed in that August primary election against Haley Stevens. But with her splitting for the Republican candidate at this very last moment, I think it's still a little bit up in the air as to whether or not this actually has an effect.

15:17 You've got something like 30% of voters through early voting have already cast their ballots. Abdullah said is up slightly in the polls here, but again, does kind of just show that split, particularly when it comes down to issues involving Israel and the conflicts and The Middle East and Gaza and Iran, I think, really does show that when it comes to the Democrats, there's a little bit of a schism there. Although I will point out that Chuck Schumer, who did back Haley Stevens actually in that primary election, he's come out to call this an absolute betrayal. So I think it does, though, present a little bit of extra drama and show that there are some schisms there within the Democratic Party.

15:53 Just about 30 seconds left here. What about this race in Alaska where Democrat Mary Peltola has been accused of... stacking the ballot against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan.

16:04 Gosh, well, that's for 30 seconds is enough to explain exactly what's happening. But you've got basically two Dan Sullivan's in the race. The New York Times reporting that one of those Dan Sullivan's was secretly recruited by the Democrats to enter the race, potentially to confuse some voters here. A federal judge dismissed a Trump administration lawsuit that sought to preemptively stop Alaska election officials from certifying the results of that Senate contest if the Republican candidate loses by a small margin. Obviously, the small margin would be whether or not there's two dance teams on the ballot, if people are voting for the other one rather than the preferred GOP candidate or some such. Really, really fascinating. Recommend

16:42 our listeners here look up the entire story, which we do have on the terminal. It is absolutely fascinating and really does kind of show you just how dramatic some of these races are becoming in their final moments.

16:52 Yeah, absolutely.

16:53 Lots to keep on mind as we.

16:58 This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.

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17:44 And I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak.