Earnings Special: Apple's Forecast Disappoints, Despite Topping Estimates

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0:19 Apple just crossed the Bloomberg terminal, so let's get to it, folks. Fourth quarter revenue, $ 114.

0:23 48 billion.

0:24 That is a beat, folks.

0:25 $ 113.

0:25 47 billion was the street estimate. Fourth quarter EPS, $ 2.

0:27 10 a share.

0:27 That's a dime better than what the street was expecting. Greater China revenue, a bit of a disappointment again. $ 17. 54 billion versus the street estimate of $ 18. 75 billion. We've seen certainly some good and bad quarters when it comes to China for Apple. Fourth quarter revenue, as we said.

0:50 A beat.

0:50 Okay, so let's go through it from a beat or miss perspective. Fourth quarter iPhone revenue, a beat at $ 57. 58 billion. Fourth quarter revenue, a beat at $ 114. 4 billion. billion. Fourth quarter, greater China revenue coming in below estimates. Once again, $ 17. 54 billion. The estimate was for $ 18.

1:10 75 billion.

1:11 Wearables was a miss. iPad revenue was a miss. Total operating expenses came in in line with estimates. at $ 19. 19 billion. Fourth quarter services revenue coming in, we can say that met estimates, $ 31. 57 billion. The estimate was for $ 31. 58. I'm going to give that one to Apple. That's a meat of expectations. Mac revenue came in above estimates. America's revenue came in just above estimates. Fourth quarter products revenue coming above estimates at $ 82. 9 billion. So fourth quarter greater China revenue missing at $ 17. 54 billion. But fourth quarter iPhone revenue A beat there, $ 57. 58 billion. And fourth quarter Apple revenue, $ 114. 48 billion. A beat on the overall top line, Carol.

1:55 And also a beat on the bottom line. Like you said, earnings per share, $ 2.

1:58 10.

1:59 Estimate was for $ 2.

2:00 Mark Gurman on the live blog saying Apple just beat estimates coming in at $ 114. 5 billion led by sales of the iPhone 18 Pro. an iPhone 18 Pro Max. The iPhone was a beat overall, but big misses in greater China and on the iPad. Anurag Rana, you're looking through these numbers as well. Come on in.

2:19 Yeah, the China thing is a very interesting one and we'll find out why that's the case. The one number that hasn't been discussed and I'm looking for it is the gross margins because I was surprised that they beat on the bottom line. I just want to understand how that happened because we were expecting some kind of compression in the gross margins because of higher memory costs. But iPhone revenue, which is extremely important to us, that was above estimate. So that's probably what's holding up the stock right now. But I think the biggest thing for us is what kind of guidance do they give going forward?

2:51 Because there are a couple of things that are happening. One, remember that the base phone is not updated right now. That's going to happen in the subsequent quarter. So there's going to be shipments that got moved from the December quarter into the March and the June quarter. So that's going to be things that are going to be important.

3:09 And the second is, you know, what's happening with Duo, all the screen issues and whether they can take care of the strong demand of Duo in this particular quarter.

3:16 Do you think they can take care of the strong demand in this quarter?

3:19 You know, it's tough to say because, you know, everybody came up with their own estimates of starting the year at, let's say, 10, 12 million units. But frankly speaking, the reception that I have seen, even with the folks that I have talked to, has been extremely strong. And that, I think, is partially true to their expectations. lease plan.

3:36 And if that's the case, we think they're going to be about 15 million units this year. And sometimes it's not easy to come up with those units in that short period of time.

3:45 Especially if you have people going to the Genius Bar saying, hey, this is cracked. I need a new one. I'm just kidding. I'm just kidding. But we will, like you said, we should get some, there will likely be some questions about the cracked issue. Hey, services revenue, as Carol mentioned, came in almost exactly as expected. That's a bright spot on a rock for you, I bet.

4:05 You know, but it was somewhere in the, you know, around the 10% mark. So the question really is what kind of guidance they give. Because now, initially what used to happen was guidance was very predictable when it came to the services business. But I think it has been slowing down for the past two quarters. And if they give a guidance right around 10%, I think that's fair.

4:23 But if they go out and say, well, we're going to, you know, go down, the growth rate is going to go down even more for the services business, that's not good. So I think a lot hinges on guidance this time than in the prior quarters.

4:35 Yeah, we know that December quarter, right, is just such an important one in terms of what it means for their top line. Let's just rehash. We're talking with Anurag Rana of our Bloomberg Intelligence team. We are talking Apple already out with its earnings stock down about nine-tenths of a percentage point. Here's some of the highlights. Fourth quarter revenue, that was a beat, $ 114.

4:54 48 billion.

4:57 Street estimate was $ 113. 47 billion. iPhone revenue, you know this, folks. So important to this company. $ 57. 58 billion. Street estimate was a little bit below that at $ 56. 49 billion. Fourth quarter, greater China revenue. A bit of a struggle there for the company. Still $ 17. 54 billion. Street estimate was $ 18. 75 billion.

5:19 And again, the stock right now down about 1.1% here in the aftermarket. It has had quite a run, though. Since late June, we've talked about this, adding about a trillion dollar in market cap. So as Anurag, you said, what we get in terms of a guidance.

5:34 I think China is such a big question here. I mean, when was the last time we were sitting here being like Apple beat on China?

5:43 Well, what is the longer term story here, Anurag, with China?

5:46 I think it was like one time in the last few quarters, truly.

5:49 They always talk about what an important market this is for this company, but there's increasing competition.

5:54 Yeah, but if you think of China, I mean, the last two quarters, they grew like 28%, 22%. I mean, it's a very big number in China. We are now, you could say, after one quarter, we're going to get into a point of very tough comparison of growth in China. You know, from my side, China is one of the most important stories for Apple. In terms of unit shipments, this is an area where they can sell more products than any other geography right now.

6:18 U.S.

6:18 Is a saturated market in terms of unit growth. China, they have a good market share. But it's still an area where they can gain more market share down the road. India is another area, but I think the per capita income in India is a lot lower than it is in China. So in India, it's only the middle class.

6:36 And when that goes up, that's really the big story there. So China for me is one of the more important.

6:42 What's their entry into India? I mean, for so many years, we talked about a cheaper iPhone being that entry into different emerging markets. But is it that newish laptop that's just a few hundred bucks?

6:54 No, it is the phone. I mean, to be very honest, the product is always the phone. Let me be very, very candid about it. It's a very expensive phone. Yeah, but the thing is, like, the base model is there. You have refurbished models. You know, India is becoming a lot more affluent when it comes to the middle class.

7:11 And Apple is an aspirational brand over there. And that's the discussion there. We have a lot. I mean, they have opened so many stores in the last few years. So, you know, India is becoming an extremely important part of the pie. But again, the overall contribution to Apple is still very small. And I think, you know, over the next 10 years, yes. But in the near three years, I think China remains the most important growth driver.

7:34 What's your top question to the C-suite when it comes to Apple?

7:40 Gross margins. You know, tell me how are you going to maintain gross margins over the next I would say three to four quarters with memory prices up going so high. And then what are you doing with your supply chain to ensure that people have and get the phones that they need in the right amount of time?

7:55 All right, so appreciate it. Anurag Rana, thank you so much, of course, of our Bloomberg Intelligence team, and we'll be looking for all of his research on it. Now we've got to go to our own Mark Gurman, of course, who knows the insides and outsides of, I feel like, Apple. He is Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech, joining us from the LA Bureau. Mark, we keep reading everything you've got on the blog.

8:17 I don't know how he's doing it. He's live blogging. He's on TV. He's on radio.

8:20 It's his digital twin.

8:21 He's doing it all.

8:22 Maybe it's his digital twin.

8:23 No, that's really Mark Gurman, I think.

8:25 Where should we go? Where should we start when it comes to the Apple story right now?

8:28 Well, let me give the backdrop. No regular iPhone 18. The iPhone 18 Pro is the most minor year-over-year upgrade we've seen in a long time. Nobody can find an iPhone Duo. No iPhone Air 2. All the major fall products, the MacBook Pro with Touch, the Home View, the HomePod Mini, the Apple TV, the OLED iPad, none of them launched until the holiday quarter. Yet they still beat And they beat because of the iPhone 18 Pro. Likely also from continued demand for the iPhone 17 Pro Max and all the carrier deals you saw earlier in the quarter. So this is a phenomenal report for Apple. The big news, which I think will be less phenomenal, is the guidance for the December quarter. Given the backdrop of everything I explained,

9:13 it all comes down to how the iPhone Duo is going to perform. And so far, the iPhone Duo supply is very difficult to understand. New pre-orders didn't come, aren't launching until the end of January for many buyers. You can't get them at retail stores right now unless you're an AI bot. So I'll be interested to see the commentary there and what the numbers actually turn out to be.

9:34 The other piece here is Greater China and services, both either a big fall or a strong deceleration.

9:40 Okay, so yeah, a big miss when it comes to China. We'll get to that in just a minute. First, though, I want you to help us with the math. When we do get that guidance about halfway through the call, as you remind everybody on the live blog, Mark, that we're going to get, how do we know the share of Duo in there based on the number that we get?

9:58 Oh, we have no idea. And they're not going to tell us. So it's going to be difficult to discern.

10:04 But a bigger number will... It's a $ 2, 000 phone. So a bigger number.

10:08 Yeah, a bigger number will mean that there's quite a big uptake for the iPhone Duo. But they don't register revenue, or at least they traditionally have not registered revenue until the consumer actually receives the device. An order being placed doesn't mean we're going to add that to the numbers. It has to be the person has received the phone, has kept the phone, etc. The good news for Apple could be that we're going to see a very strong tailwind because of the supply chain shortages and give them positive numbers into Q2, Q3, Q4 of next year, given how hard this phone is going to be to get for quite a while now.

10:40 Will that ultimately hurt them? You know, it's great to have pent up demand, right? It makes for a great story, great headlines.

10:47 I don't think it'll hurt them. I think what Apple is trying to do anyways, especially under Ternus, is create more consistent revenue across the year. For a long time, Apple has pushed everything into the very back part of the year and now spreading things across, whether that was the intention or not for the duo, is them hitting a goal they've had for quite some time.

11:07 Um, Mark, I, I'm, I'm wondering about the, I mean, like a week ago, one of the most read stories in the terminal sitting here was the story you were writing about, um, the crack screens on the duo. Has that issue gone away? Do we expect it to be addressed at all? I imagine an analyst will, or two will ask about this.

11:27 We've seen a dramatic slowdown in people reporting the cracks. The cracks were reported from the first units that were sold and There does not appear to be any consistency on which units are impacted, whether that's a color, whether that's if you bought it online or in the retail store, whether it was manufactured in China or India or what have you. I'm sure they'll get a question about it, but it is completely died down, which tells me this was an early batch defect. It was a real issue.

11:54 There were some influencers online trying to gaslight people into believing this was not an issue. But the fact of the matter is, for a small percentage of iPhone Duo buyers, you open the phone the right way and it cracked. And that's a real problem. But it clearly was an isolated problem.

12:11 Mark, one of the things I jumped out ahead of the earnings, as Tim and I were reading through the blog, your comments about how this is going to be the first for Apple with new CEO John Ternes in charge and, you know, what we might hear from him on the call. He's a product guy. So I'm just curious what you're going to be listening out for.

12:29 Yeah, he gets all this credit for being a product person, but at the end of the day, Apple is a product company and nothing has changed here. All the initiatives that you see introduced over the past several weeks, these were all in the works for half a decade under Tim Cook. Obviously, Ternus was extremely deep in the thick of things, but the reality is that nothing is changing a ton at Apple anymore. Because of this, at least for now, I have reported, though, he wants the company to run faster, wants to run leaner. There have been a lot of under the radar layoffs and less under the radar layoffs at Apple. There's been cost cutting and I expect more cost cutting to happen. And so the guidance definitely is going to be the most interesting part here.

13:07 Why are they looking at all these layoffs? Why are they looking at the cost cutting? What does that mean for revenue and what they're expecting there?

13:13 Hey, Mark, let's go to the AI story here. Apple's up roughly 25%. What AI story? Okay, so, well, that's the point. So Apple's up roughly 25%. It's best performing Mag 7 going into today's print, beating by far Microsoft down up 10%. So not only is it beating the greater index, but it's like the only one that's beating the greater index, right? So... Apple has been punished in the past and criticized for not having an AI strategy.

13:44 But what that means is it does have a free cash flow position that is enviable if you are spending a lot of your cash right now, like some of these hyperscalers are. Am I looking at this incorrectly?

13:58 No, I think you're looking at the most optimistic view here. But at the same time, we've seen zero evidence from Apple that they're going to be able to successfully take advantage of that cash holding and trade that in for a strong AI strategy. I've been using OpenAI ChatGPT. over the weekend. I have completely immersed myself in it. Apple has nothing close. It's a game changer. It's literally like an all-day assistant that's like a human that you can have.

14:21 This is the agent. This is their answer to Muse?

14:24 This is their agent, yes. Answer to Claude, answer to Muse. It's been pretty terrific. And Siri AI is operating nowhere close.

14:34 What about Siri, the Siri AI chatbot? Have you played with it? Do you like it?

14:39 Is it, yeah. Siri AI is fantastic for 90% of use cases. You ask it questions, it uses that Gemini model to get you the answers. You need to get something done on your phone, it can get something done on your phone. But in terms of replicating a real world assistant, it's not that. It's basically what the original vision of Siri was 15 years ago, but finally executed correctly.

15:00 That's an amazing thing. It means that the core AI product that Apple has finally works and That means they have an excellent foundation. Now they have to actually build something on top of it. Services.

15:12 This has always been an important revenue generator, and it looks like it's slowing. How problematic is that, or what's the question to ask of John Ternes and the C-suite about that?

15:25 Well, the question is why, and one of the answers is because Google searches are down because of AI, and a big chunk of the revenue Apple gets from services is a revenue share from Google search done in Safari. And as people move to the Gemini app, as people move towards the ChatGPT app or the Cloud app or the Muse app, or even Siri AI to get things done that they normally would do in a search engine, that services revenue is going to come down. What Apple needs to do is figure out a way to make up for that revenue loss by monetizing search on its platforms, or shall I say AI search on its platforms, because they're not doing that.

15:58 We're speaking with Mark Gurman. He's Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech. We're in the midst of Apple's numbers. That call does start in just about 14 minutes. Mark's going to go to that in a few minutes. We do have a few more minutes with Mark, but to catch everybody up, if you are just joining us, the company reported revenue gains of 12% to $ 114. 5 billion. That was a beat on the top line. China sales, though, fell short of analysts' estimates. iPhone revenue climbed 17% to $ 57. 6 billion. The shares in the after hours, they're flat right now. They fell, they moved higher, and now they're flat.

16:31 Yeah, stock is really flat. So, Mark, you know, we've always had high expectations for, like, what's next from Apple. Where do they go next from here?

16:42 Well, next year is going to be an extremely strong year in terms of AI wearables. So where they're excelling is AI hardware. Smart glasses are going to be there. The AirPods with cameras, those have been off delayed. We're going to see those. The touchscreen MacBook Pro goes on sale Friday. I'm excited for that as lack of revolutionary as it is. The home view goes on sale in a couple of weeks. I'm excited for that. So there's a chock full product pipeline here. The big question is 2028, 2029, 2030 and beyond. Things like robotics, things like augmented reality glasses.

17:13 Are they going to take another swing? at autonomy? Those are the big questions for the company's future and certainly things that you will not hear from John Ternus today. All right.

17:21 So we're all in on the elections, as you can imagine. How does that, you know, Tim Cook has been a master, right, in terms of really overseeing things with Washington and.

17:31 Just kind of- With Beijing, too.

17:33 Navigating all of it pretty well, to say the least. But how does the midterm outcome, you know, kind of impact this company.

17:42 If at all? Yeah, it's a fascinating question. I've been asked this the last several weeks. I think there's going to be no impact. You know, the big political thing when it came to Apple, you know, with the Republicans in charge has been tariffs. No matter who wins, I don't see that changing. I don't think there's going to be anything dramatic or even less than dramatic when it comes to whether it's the Democrats or the Republicans in the lead after these midterms.

18:07 What's your favorite Apple product right now? Me?

18:10 Oh, I'm using the iPhone Duo.

18:12 I think it's incredible.

18:13 And are you loving it?

18:13 And I feel bad for people who want yes, and I feel bad for people who want it and aren't able to get their hands on it because it's a game-changing experience. And I think you really should give it a shot. I mean, I've seen some people buy it and return it. But give it the two weeks, and I think you'll get used to it. The inner screen is simply incredible. It's changed my workflow completely. You can use a lot of what you would use a laptop or an iPad for on this thing. So I encourage anyone who has the means or the desire to give it a shot.

18:40 Or the patience.

18:42 Or the patience to wait in line for it. People are trying to buy them through the Apple Store app, and the AI bots are taking these things very quickly, 30 seconds, 60 seconds, 15 seconds, and it's hard for consumers to get their hands on it.

18:57 We have to wrap with you in 10 seconds, Mark, but when do you think it won't be an issue where somebody can just go and get one if they want one?

19:05 February, March. Okay.

19:07 Mark your calendar, Carol.

19:08 Well, so just have a little patience.

19:10 Got to update this iPhone 13 Pro that I have.

19:13 Yeah, you do kind of. I would. Mark Gurman, thank you. We know it's busy time for you. We really appreciate it. Mark Gurman, he's Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech, joining us out there from the LA Bureau.