Euro and Oil Contagion Risks

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We start beyond strong today. This is really with all the reading I did. There's a reading week in Alexis.

It really was. You were immersed, Tom.

I was immersed with that bill on the couch and, you know, in the kennel thing. It was just great. Steve Chivarone. He's the right person to speak to right now. Long ago and far away, Steve, you and I looked at an equation that's too long and has too many Greek letters, and the answer is rho squared is a summation of omega squared, rho squared, summation, summation, yeah, yeah, yeah.

The math of diversification just seems to be thrown out the window right now. What is the to-do list for American shell-shocked in bonds, currencies, commodities, as they try to maintain an equity ownership?

Yeah, I'd say as long as you're in an environment, if you want to simplify it, Tom, as long as you're in an environment where the risk to upside inflation is greater than the risk to downside growth, that is a profoundly equity-healthy, bond-unhealthy setup. And that's been the setup we've been in, really, for the last six years. And that's accelerated this year. But I think that's the story, that you have to be in the asset that can pass along the inflation and that eats nominal earnings. And those are equities, and they're the only game in town right now.

And folks, I know you're bored by it. And Michael Darter with a brilliant note this weekend, a nominal GDP and nominal revenue down the income statement as we see Pepsi this week and JP Morgan the 13th. Okay, to me, your world at Federated Hermes is, is the idea that earnings and revenue and all that's coming up is endogenous, is inside the system, and we're treating all these shocks in the stock market is outside the system. Bonds, currencies, oil, all that. They're just exogenous to what the earnings revenue picture looks like.

A couple of things. Step back.

This is the biggest infrastructure build in the history of the United States. We say since the railroad, but it's bigger. What we're living through right now is the earnings story of our lifetime. It's the margin expansion story of our lifetime. And that's not an opinion. That's a verifiable fact. And the market's gotten cheaper while you've posted these earnings this year.

Relative to earnings?

Yeah, relative to earnings.

We've gone from a 23 times multiple to something sub 20. So when you're sitting here, the The only question you have to ask yourself is, do any of the risks that we're getting scared about really derail that story? And the answer is no, because the rising rates don't really derail the drivers of growth. The Mag7, the hyperscalers are relatively rate insensitive. So is the high end consumer. And the thing about rising rates, and I think we're making more of this than we should, We lived for 20 years in an environment where growth was sub 2%, inflation was sub 2%, real yields were negative, policy rates were zero, and market rates were 2% to 3%. We all agree it's no longer sub-2% growth. It's no longer sub-2% inflation.

Real rates are not zero. Policy rates are 3%, 4%.

So why are we shocked.

And clutching our pearls that long-term bond yields have to reflect that and be 5% plus? And by the way, there's a name for that terrible environment. It's called the 90s, and it wasn't so terrible.

Right.

So you're not afraid of bond market contagion at all? Europe somehow moving, spreading further throughout Europe and then impacting us here in the U.S.? You're not that concerned?

We're underweight Europe because Europe has now chosen, for whatever reason, to miss the second major economic transformation of the last 25 years, right? They produced no magnificent name to join the Magnificent Seven, right? Asia did with Samsung and Hynix and Taiwan Semi. And now with AI... You know, they're long on regulation and nonexistent on innovation or participation. And so they're dealing with this kind of repricing higher of debt, just like we are in the United States. The difference is in the U.S., you've got earnings growth that's 25%, 30%, and margins that are able to deal with it. In Europe, they don't have that.

And a lot of that is on the back of a strong consumer. But I'm going to play devil's advocate for a moment and ask, what happens if the job market begins to deteriorate? in a meaningful way? Is that the hurdle that might derail the equity rally?

I think the two things that could derail the bullish medium-term forecast would be, one, if the AI fails, if the technology doesn't materialize, or two, if there's a credit issue.

Could a jobs rollover do it?

Sure, but I don't think you're going to have one because, look, if you're going to engage in $ 700 billion of capex over this year and next year, somebody needs to hit the nail with a hammer. And that's why the jobs market's been stronger this year than people thought. You need employment to do that. You can't just, you can't write software that builds a data center. Somebody's got to build it, and that's where you see the strength.

Short term at Federated Hermitages is three years, I'm going to say. Maybe I'm wrong. It's five years. What's your visibility now? In the old days, securities analysts would come out with a three-year view on page 10 There'd be a sensitivity analysis out 24 months. Now people can't get to, I'd say, February. What's your vision now? What's your clarity, Steve, forward?

I might look young, but I'm not. So what I would say, Tom, is we are out three years, right? Or two years on the price forecast, three years on the earnings. We've got an S & P going from 85 to 10,000 to 11,000. And the visibility on earnings is higher than normal because of these backlogs, right?

Think about it.

Micron has already sold every chip that they'll make next year. If you want to buy a gas turbine from GE Vernova, good luck. You might get one in 2257.

Okay, but what about Heinz Ketchup? Let's go to Pittsburgh. You went back home. Or Velveeta. I know the refrigerator from the Chevron house. I mean, it's like quality. What about real companies that don't do AI or SI or this or that?

So it depends, right?

If you're tied to hard assets, if you're materials, you're energy, you're industrials, you're tied to corporate spending. This bull market is unlike the last several in that it's primarily being driven by the eye line.

It's investment.

If you're on the consumer side, the consumer itself is strong, right? The consumer companies are not right. Either it's uncompelling product mixes or there's kind of disruption or there's wallet share being sent to more towards necessity. So hard goods fine. But Heinz, it's not the greatest environment.

OK, Steve, you got can Steve come back side? Can Steve come back like, you know, more frequently here? Because, I mean, this is nuts.

And he does look younger than I'm sure he is.

Oh, he is cut and chiseled.

It's kind of crazy.

It's boyish good looks. When he sits next to Tucker, it's a relative value. Oh, no.

John's catching strays here. I'm used to it.

Steve Chivarone, thank you so much. Greatly appreciate it. Federated Hermes. Stay with us.

More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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This is a joy. If Martin Ratz was in New York or Texas, he would be a household name in America. You would see him on every network. He'd be on CNN every, you know, 24 hours. Instead, he's in London. And he brings prodigious physics from his Netherlands. He's lectured in a visiting scholar at Stanford. And his deck is, they call it, 60, 70 pages of exquisite hydrocarbon work.

is just second to none. He is with Morgan Stanley. Martin, honored to have you with us today. Why is oil at 102 and the spot price dated Brent up? It was at 144. I think it's a little below that. What is the why this morning of high oil prices?

Well, I think historically we have been conditioned to think about crude oil first. And then we know that Actually, crude oil is really owned by refiners. So nobody buys really crude oil. And then it takes a few dollars to refine it and to ship it.

But really, when you thought about crude oil historically, you got most of the story, so to say.

That's where the value was created, but that's where the volatility was concentrated. So it was crude oil plus a little bit. But I think the best way to think about the oil market right now is as three combined major disruptions. We have a disruption in crude oil supply, the Strait of Hormuz, the Baba Mandab, those factors. Then we have a severe crisis in global shipping. And then we have a significant disruption in global refining. It's crude, shipping, and refining. And the disruptions across that entire value chain are only really reflected in the price of the refined products.

And the anchor of the refined products is diesel. So the way to think about the oil market at the moment is sort of what can people afford for diesel? And then think back, how much do the refiners capture of that? How much do the shippers capture of that? And ultimately what is left for the crude oil provider?

And given how tight shipping and refining are, there is less available.

For the crude oil provider.

You went right where I wanted to go, which is almost from Chicago, a price theory foundation or a microeconomic foundation. Martin, if the price spikes up and sustains here... Doesn't the problem solve itself because we adjust to permanently high oil prices and then out there somewhere oil comes back down? Yes.

I mean, it's a long saying in the oil market that the solution for high prices is high prices. And unusually in this cycle, you don't see it so much in crude, but it's really in diesel. There is nobody who's asking the question, oh, why isn't the price of diesel any higher?

Diesel is $ 200 per barrel. It's all time high.

It is the price where demand probably slows down. And yeah, and that should incentivize refineries to run harder, shippers to find some extra capacity. That should incentivize the solution. And that's how commodity cycles almost always work. So we'll probably see that again at some point.

Martin, right now with Brent hovering near these highs, are energy prices choking off economic growth yet? Or is the consumer resilient enough to just keep absorbing $ 100 oil? Yeah.

Look, to say that that is the billion-dollar question would be slightly understating it in our market.

And there are two theories about it.

You can either look at diesel and say, look, it's close to all-time high. We've tested this earlier in the year. We tested it in 2022 when we also had a big diesel crisis. And the market has taught us There isn't much demand above this level. And if there isn't much demand, that basically suggests the economy just doesn't take it because diesel is so core to trucking and shipping and construction. But at the other end, we still see very strong economic growth. There's a lot of defense spending.

There's a lot of AI spending. There's a lot of government spending. So there is also a theory that this is just a stop along the road, that we pause at this very high diesel price for a little bit and ultimately go higher still.

Martin Ratz with us, with Morgan Stanley, London, with all of his academics out of the Netherlands. Alexis, in Amsterdam, a gallon of gas with their taxes is $ 10. 80. A diesel is $ 11 per gallon.

That's on the ground. Boots on the ground.

That's like station, U.S. dollars. Yeah.

What about where we are in terms of refiners? And is there any relief, you know, in sight, Martin?

Well, there I would be a little hesitant to say yes.

So the story that is well known about refining is that there are a bunch of refineries behind the straight of our moose who can't export their product. then there are a large number of refineries in Russia that have been attacked, and they are also out.

And that is the story.

But what the sort of second order effect of all of this is, is that it's very tight. Refining margins are very high. Refineries that can run, run. And they're running very, very hard. Now, refineries need elaborate maintenance once every five years. So there are refineries that should be in maintenance now, but they are delaying this maintenance to capture this high margin environment. That is all well and good.

That is helping us deal with the disruption that we have right here, right now. But if you look at the deferred maintenance, the amount of refinery maintenance that is already being planned for 1Q, 2Q next year, those are very, very high amounts. So it could well be that some of this refining capacity in the Middle East and Russia comes back, but then we need a large catch-up in plant refinery maintenance, extending this cycle.

So our fear is.

That we have to live with these high diesel prices for a good couple of quarters to come.

Martin, summarize for us. And of course, in America, I think of New England. Good morning, 92.9 FM. In New England, the reliance on fuel oil. What is the oil storage situation now and capacity situation for a winter? Is, for example, Europe going to have a cold winter? Is Shanghai or someplace in the Pacific Rim going to be deficient in fuel this winter?

Yeah. Look, there are potentially some serious issues there. What we can track are what we often call primary inventory locations, big tank farms in Rotterdam and Singapore and New York Harbor, and they are low. But where we have less good data is in the supply chain and inventories at customers' ends.

There we largely need to rely on anecdotal indications, but the anecdotal indications is that all this oil that is sort of absorbed in the supply chain that many customers have their own inventories. The anecdotal evidence is very clearly that they are quite heavily depleted. The one place where we have good data on this is in Germany. There are 5 million households in Germany that have diesel tanks in their garden. They use that for home heating. Those inventories we can observe, and they are exceptionally low, and they are effectively a bet on the warm winter. There might well be some forced buying if the weather turns cold.

Can the politicians help solve this, or is it just window dressing?

Well, look, there is a huge geopolitical overlay to all of this.

Of course, if the geopolitical situation were to calm down, then this problem can be quickly resolved. But absent that, there isn't much in the sense that there can be releases, say, from strategic inventories, but they're like a double-sworded.

Effect, if you see what I mean.

They both leave the near-term situation, but at the same time, they also signal how serious it is.

And the markets can interpret that in two ways.

Martin, love to have you on with us. Can't wait to get you in New York into our studios as well. Martin Ratz is with Morgan Stanley driving all of their commodity coverage. Stay with us.

More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m.

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Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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What's great about Sheila Cayulu is there's no one that mispronounces her name better than me.

You gotta love it.

I mean, she keeps track, Sheila keeps track of how many people butcher her name. And I'm in first place.

Well, she'll correct you momentarily.

She will correct us momentarily. Sheila Caiulo is a really strange beast. She's with Jeffries. Sheila Caiulo is an institution, particularly when I pronounce her name correctly. Because Sheila not only does airlines. But then she, like Delta United, she does the planes like Boeing, and then she brings it over to the thing we never talk about, which is the defense contracts. Nice. So we're going to squeeze, I think, like a two-hour conversation here with a giant from Jefferies, Sheila Kailou, the managing director of all having to do with things that fly. I must ask, and I know you know this, We learn in crisis the engineering of these miracle planes. For that plane in the Middle East to fall that much elevation that fast, the tail of

the plane comes off. These things are engineering miracles, aren't they? What did you observe of that engineering integrity?

Yeah, I think the fly Dubai incident was tough if you're referencing that, Tom. But also last week, all the headlines for Boeing were really about the max certification that took the forefront of investor conversations with the max 10 Kelly Orberg was on about two weeks ago saying the max 10 would be certified imminently, which meant like a few days or hours. And this is an aircraft that's already been delayed. And it was deemed that the FAA last Saturday announced a corrective action board called a carb.

So saying we're going to review the safety implications of a software system that GE makes on the max and And so that was what drew investor headlines because if it was delayed, it would have been a big negative for Boeing.

And they got the SPIA.

Strike across the board, which was about 15% of their workforce was going to strike, but they approved.

Their wage increase. So all good things last week for Boeing.

On a plane basis, who's winning the battle, Boeing or Airbus?

I would say Airbus wins from a narrow body perspective. It's 60-40 on a wide body. That's inverse.

But, you know, it does.

There's always a pricing element in there as well where I find that Airbus... Interesting. Airbus does discount heavily on wide bodies to try to even up.

The market share.

Is that because they're government-supported?

I think so. I think if you look at, you know, their.

Free cash flow per aircraft, it's 25% to 50% below Boeing's rates because they are kind of, you know, whether it's the productivity of the workforce, the wages of the workforce, they have a support system there that lowers their overturn profiles.

I want to talk commercial airlines for a moment. United and JetBlue recently raised their checked bag fees. Fun times. Who is winning... the race amongst the commercial airliners right now?

Sure.

So from a commercial aircraft perspective, airline perspective, I would say our favorite into this earnings season is Delta, which reports on Friday, October 9th, actually. And then United, more of a long-term thesis there. I think United and Delta continue to win the segmentation game. So their latest implementations, which Delta will start in Q3, is basically business segmentation.

So business basic, business, I don't know what the, business medium and business large.

Thank goodness I've checked with the Jeffries policy and we're only.

So there are ladders within business now as well?

Yes, with United and Delta. And actually I had the American Airlines Pilot Association, APA on last Thursday for an expert call I hosted. And they were talking about how American lags, you know, Americans margins are about half of Delta's and United's. And part of that is their revenue generation scheme. They don't have the revenue capabilities, whether it's like the segmentation within business and even in main cabin, as well as, you know, their international routes.

What's a person like me to do when they're looking for a seat? You know, I go and I go, well, what's basic? Basic used to be you got to choose your seat. You don't do that anymore in basic.

Unfortunately, my assistant books all my flights for me.

The truth comes out.

So I'm constantly traveling on the road. I think there was not a single Monday through Thursday.

But you're traveling business. And isn't business still?

No, I do economy, too, depending on the flight time.

But business is still the bread and butter for these airlines.

Yeah, there is a loyalty element, too, where I've consistently brokered to two airlines that I cover just because I find that they have the most routes, the most availability, and And then I get upgraded to like a comfort level because my status is diamond or whatever the platinum is.

Comfort level. You're upgraded to comfort level, which in and of itself makes you wonder, so is there an uncomfortable seat I'm now stuck in?

You know, I find that like operations for me are actually the biggest thing. Just to get to meetings on time and the reliability and the times, you know, if I'm going to LaGuardia versus JFK, that makes a big difference for me, that extra hour of sleep. So having the network route structure with Delta and United is a big a big winner for me, but I would say book early. Like when we're thinking about the holidays, maybe 10 to 20% is sold out today, but in a month it'll be 50% sold out. So then, you know, the seat pricing gets incrementally more expensive, which is up double digits, 15% plus year to date.

Do you follow JetBlue when I look, are you have a banking relationship?

No, we don't cover JetBlue.

Can you speak about it? The survivability of JetBlue lonely out at JFK?

Yeah, they're expanding their LaGuardia routes as well. But I think, you know, it's been a dominant share gain for Delta and United.

Yeah, they're winning the war.

And it's how long can American, like, hold on to third place and what kind of third place is it, you know? I think that's what the Pilots Association I was talking to was so frustrated with last week. Because American has a bit large fleet. So it's where is the third place? And, you know, Southwest is clearly a niche player.

This is fit and finish. I mean, Ed Bastian and Scott Kirby. are killing it in terms of a total presentation. I mean, even with a Starlink upset. I mean, we have a duopoly.

I never thought Starlink would be so contentious, but apparently for Elon it is with Delta.

Does it really matter that Delta does not have Elon Musk on board?

Yeah, I think for Elon it does. I don't think it matters for Ed as much.

You don't think it matters for Delta?

No, you know, I think Delta's, you know, keeping the loyalty element. My sister flew to Denver yesterday, and I was asking her, what'd you buy? It's obviously a United Hub, and she's a Delta loyal member.

I'm a big Delta loyal member.

I flew Delta, and she's like, I don't care what you're talking about with your Starlink capability.

The single best buy defense contractors.

General Dynamics, 100%. Please explain that. General Dynamics or Raytheon. See, they're both a little bit mixed.

Raytheon's 60% commercial, so my head always goes into the commercial realm. I think LHX Lockheed and Northrop are plagued by margins, lack of margin expansion, not only on new development programs, but existing legacy programs. So really the upside driver for me is general dynamics. They'll be in a net cash position at the end of next year. They could deploy their balance sheet. I think they might have some management changes, which, you know, they've had a very well announced COO for the past year and they finally have operating leverage in the business that, EBIT is growing 20% above where revenues are growing just because they have leverage.

They've invested massively in their marine business and business jets.

We're out of time. Sure. In your schedule, I'd love you to come back with your holistic view and talk about drones. Okay.

Let's talk drones.

I'd just love you to come back and talk about drones. It's just that. I get a huge response from our listeners and viewers.

Yeah, sounds good.

Sheila, thank you so much. Sheila Cayola with us. With Jeffries, you heard it there. Short-term, she likes Delta. With earnings, look for Sheila's work Friday, I believe it is, when they report. And then United with a longer-term vision as well. Again, we protect the copyright of every single guest, including Sheila.

Get her work, her brilliance from Jeffries as you can. Stay with us.

More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m.

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Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

Right now, we look at the debacle in your 7% plus mortgage rate market. John Lovallo joining us for Serious Cred, home builders building products at UBS as well. Let's just start with the basics. How bad is it with a bank rate 30 mortgage above 7.2%?

Hey, Tom. Yeah, so we're at 7.57. For context, that's 31 basis points higher than the January 2025 peak. It's up 159 basis points from the start of the war. It's a problem. I would say on top of that, consumer confidence hit a 15-year low in May, came pretty darn close to hitting another 15-year low in September. So those are the challenges that are in the market today. Now, keep in mind that both of those can change pretty quickly with any kind of resolution in Iran, any kind of pullback in oil. So we still do believe that this industry is closer to trough than it is at any point in recent history. And that's typically a very good time to get involved in the stocks.

Interesting, though, that you say it could change at any time quickly. I Is there a feeling because a lot of folks believe that mortgage rates are going to hang out around this level. There's no great incentive for them to move off where they are right now.

It's a fair question. And I'm certainly not a rate strategist. However, what we did see several times is oil spike above 100 percent. I'm sorry, $ 100 per barrel and then come down to 75. And when that happened, rates came down pretty precipitously. And so in that environment, it could certainly happen. Now, another thing is if the market begins to believe that Warsh is going to get inflation under control, that could certainly help. So there are some underlying factors here that are keeping rates elevated. I don't believe that 7.57 is the natural.

Rate, though.

All right.

So let's talk stocks that are affected by all of this. I'm thinking D.R.

Horton.

I'm thinking Lenar. Even the Home Depot, right? Who's getting hit the hardest right now?

You know, it's pretty much across the housing complex that everyone's getting hit pretty hard. What I would tell you, though, if I can kind of switch that question around, is where I think the most leverage to the recovery would be is with the homebuilders. Now, if you think about it, the average homebuilder right now is offering an incentive that's equivalent to about 10% of the mortgage. Now, historically, that's been 3% to 4%. Right. So there's a tremendous amount of leverage built up in that gross margin, which translates into EPS growth, which translates into cash flow. So even if we could pull back slightly on the incentives, it would be very powerful.

So you're saying they can offer the incentives without squeezing the margins too much?

Well, right now the margins are getting squeezed. So if they're able to pull back ever so slightly in the context of a rate environment that either calms or comes down, very, very powerful.

This is what matters. It's the kitchen. Like, John, the money now is so outrageous, insurance. mortgages, all the other expenses. Does anybody really care about the grid backsplashes are giving way to solid stone slabs running all the way around the countertop? Are we still buying houses like we used to?

I have to have a granite counter.

I think that what the builders have shown is that there's an ability to take content out and to change the content that's going into homes. People want housing. That is very clear. We do surveys. We're at 34%. Yeah. So the actual, what goes into the home right now, people are being a little bit more flexible. Now the higher end buyer, either it's, you know, the Toll Brothers or a Pulte group, that buyer is still more discerning.

I mean, I look at this, Alexis, and to me, I look at the very simple house my parents moved into when I was four years old. We're not moving into those houses anymore, are we?

Because we can't afford them.

Affordability is the biggest challenge out there. But what the builders can do, and what I alluded to before, is there's a lot of levers they can pull. They have arrows in their quiver where they can buy down mortgage rates. They can build smaller footprint homes further away from the city, and they can decontent them. Those are things that the existing- There you go.

That's such a John Lovato phrase. Let's decontent.

What does decontent mean?

It means pull some of the features out that you would typically.

So no grand countertop.

Okay.

Correct.

Not as high-end?

That is correct.

This is like deep planing.

I had never heard of that. What are you deep.

Content in the living room?

Just lower-end features.

No hardwood floors.

Correct. So instead of a hardwood floor, maybe you're going to a luxury vinyl tile, something along those lines.

Luxury vinyl tile.

Okay.

Do you have a single best buy?

Pulte Group is our top pick in the group. They have about 40% exposure to the first-time buyer.

Right.

About 40% to move up, 20% to.

I looked at the 10-year track record up 21% per year. Do people understand that the home builders 10 years out have Apple-like performance? I don't think they do.

I don't think they do either. And they've changed dramatically in the way they run their businesses. If you went back historically, they were land speculators that would buy every piece of dirt, develop it, entitle it, and then throw a home on it at the end of the day to monetize it. Now they're really generating cash through a cycle.

They're returning capital to shareholders. They're doing things that real companies do.

What's going to move the needle, though, for the consumer at the end of the day? It's got to be lower mortgage rates. What else is going to get them out there and wanting to buy?

Well, the intent there is certainly real. So I think lower mortgage rates would certainly help. Look, there's a lot of equity built up in folks' homes at this point. There's $ 35 trillion of equity built up. supporting a $ 68 to $ 82 trillion generational wealth transfer. And why that's important is it's actually showing up in the numbers, where 25% of first-time buyers are receiving down payment assistance. So there are some other- 25%. 25% of millennial first-time buyers.

This is great. Don't be a stranger. John LaValle with us, UBS. Just brilliant. Thank you.

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern, on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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