Three Election Scenarios Nobody Is Talking About - with Gil Hoffman

0:00 ARC Media is funded in large part by our ARC Plus members. They allow us to cover Israel and the Jewish world honestly without compromise. When you join ARC Plus, you support our mission and get access to exclusive content as well as ad-free listening across all ARC Media podcasts. Join us at arcmedia.org. And to our members, thank you.

0:22 [Instrumental music] You are listening to an ARC Media podcast. Dan, I've written so many political eulogies [laughs] of Netanyahu over the decades that I've covered him, and he's always found a way to come back. And you, you know, his father died at the age of one hundred and two. He's only turning seventy-seven next week. He would try to be prime minister forever.

0:50 And so I think they should try to pass the indictment law and the term li- limit law and get him a pardon because then you know he's out of the way. And if he's been the cause of the political instability that made us have five elections in three and a half years and could make us have five elections in the next three and a half years, then that could really be the key to stability.

1:11 I think that's actually the key to everything. [Instrumental music] It's nine thirty p.m. on Sunday, October eighteenth, here in New York City. It's four thirty a.m. on Monday, October nineteenth, in Israel as Israelis get ready to begin a new day. Before we get started, two housekeeping notes, both about Thursday, October twenty-second.

1:42 First, just five days before the Israeli elections, Call Me Back will host a live taping at the Striker Center at Temple Emanuel in New York City. I will sit down with Dan Shapiro, Dahlia Scheindlin, and Brett Stephens to discuss what's at stake in the election and what the results will mean for the U.S.-Israel relationship. Tickets are still available.

2:03 To join us in person or to watch online, you must register in advance, so please follow the link in the show notes. I think it will be a very dynamic and rich and up-to-the-minute conversation with the elections only a few days away. Second, that same morning at eight a.m. Eastern, we are hosting an open house for The Fold, our private community for listeners of Call Me Back and the rest of the ARC Media family. If you've been curious about it, come see it for yourself before you join.

2:33 I myself am on The Fold. You'll meet some of the people before the community, get a look at what's happening inside, and you can ask us anything. To register, follow the link in the show notes or go to arcmedia.org. Now on to today's episode. In just ten days, Israelis go to the polls, and the conventional wisdom is that this election comes down to two possible outcomes.

2:56 Either Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies win enough seats to form another government or Gadi Eisenkot and the opposition parties manage to put together a coalition to replace him. But there's a problem with that framing. Israeli elections have a history of producing outcomes that nobody anticipated and governments that look nothing like what voters thought they were voting for. Remember two thousand and nine?

3:21 Tzipi Livni's Kadima party, which had been a new party at the time, won the most seats in the Knesset, twenty-eight, compared to Netanyahu's twenty-seven seats. But Netanyahu was the one who became prime minister because he could assemble a coalition and Livni could not. Or take twenty twenty-one. Netanyahu's Likud was by far the largest party, but Naftali Bennett, whose Yamina party had won just seven seats, ended up becoming prime minister, leading one of the most unlikely coalitions in Israeli history.

3:54 And this election, one that's days away, may even be harder to predict. For one thing, the familiar left versus right divide doesn't really describe the political landscape anymore. The coalition trying to replace Netanyahu includes not just centrist and left-leaning parties, but prominent right-wing figures as well, like Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman.

4:16 What unites these parties is less a shared ideology than a shared determination to replace Netanyahu, and even that may not be enough. Recent polls suggest neither bloc is guaranteed the sixty-one seats needed to form a government, which means that after the votes are counted, Israel could find itself facing weeks of negotiations, broken promises, unlikely alliances, and political horse trading.

4:41 Who might cross the aisle? Who might abandon an ally? And could someone other than Netanyahu or Eisenkot end up as prime minister? The outcome could be every bit as messy and unpredictable as the political circumstances that produced it. So today, rather than rehearse the two scenarios everybody's been talking about and that we have been talking about on this podcast in recent months, we're going to explore three scenarios that almost nobody is talking about.

5:09 Joining us in a moment is Israeli political analyst Gil Hoffman, who's the former executive director of HonestReporting. He's a political analyst for i24 and the author of a newly published book called The Blood Libel Machine. He is a prolific writer about Israel and Israeli politics. He spent decades covering the personalities, rivalries, and backroom deals that shape Israeli politics. And since we recorded our conversation, President Trump offered his endorsement of Netanyahu.

5:41 On Truth Social, he wrote that, quote, "If Israel has the wrong leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so." Close quote. Now, previous US presidents have made clear their preference for Prime Minister of Israel, and some of these presidents have actually taken steps to try to help their preferred candidate.

6:07 But no one has ever tried to do it like this. The way President Trump did this is unprecedented. And yet, in an interview later in the day, President Trump was asked if he would be unable to work with a different prime minister, and he said this, quote, "Maybe I can work with someone else, and maybe I won't.

6:23 Why take a chance?" Close quote. So there you have it, the endorsement by the American president with a bit of wiggle room built into it. In future episodes, we'll discuss how President Trump's endorsement will impact the race, if at all. Now onto my conversation with Gil Hoffman right after this short message.

6:43 [gentle music] In the United States, if there's an emergency, you're dealing with several different systems. One organization runs the ambulances, another handles disaster relief, a third manages the blood supply. In Israel, it's one organization, Magen David Adom. MDA is Israel's national emergency services system. It's mandated by the government, but it is not a government agency, which means it runs on philanthropy.

7:11 Most of Israel's ambulances were paid for by generous donors from around the world. Something else worth knowing, MDA's medics are Jewish, Muslim, Christian, and Druze, serving Israel's entire population, regardless of religion, nationality, or ethnic background. In a country that argues about almost everything, that diversity is sacred. You can support their important work at afmda.org/callmeback, or follow the link in the episode description.

7:44 [gentle music] Gil, welcome to Call Me Back. Pleasure being with you, Dan. So Gil, if you look at Israeli media and how the polls are presented, we all see two scenarios, a Netanyahu-led right-wing coalition on one side and an Eisenkot-led coalition on the left side. How do those scenarios map onto reality?

8:04 Or put differently, what are the circumstances that could make this election different from how the polling and the press coverage has been framing up the likely scenarios? Well, Dan, I don't know how fair it is to say that Eisenkot is coming from the left side. I saw Reuters refer to him as a hawkish ex-general, which meant that this is just an election between too right-wing and even more too right-wing, and therefore, whoever we pick is, is illegitimate.

8:29 We haven't had a real ideological election in Israel for many years because we've been infected by the same personality politics that has infected America. And so now looking forward, what we have is a competition o- of hatred and animosity. There are Israelis who have animosity toward Netanyahu. There are Israelis that have animosity toward the Arab population, and there are Israelis who have animosity toward the ultra-Orthodox for not serving in the army, which has really heightened since October 7th when we had such a shortage of, uh, people available to serve and, and too many people serving hundreds of days in the reserves.

9:10 So the animosity toward the Arabs is the oldest. Uh, with Netanyahu, it's been going on for 30 years. And with the ultra-Orthodox, while it's been there before, this election will determine i- if it's heightened to the point that it could change things around here. So, you know, this is obviously common in US politics when other leaders in the West have been in power for a long time, Margaret Thatcher, or very polarizing figures in the UK like Boris Johnson.

9:37 The, all of politics during these periods revolved around that one personality. And what you're saying is Israelis and the Israeli press tend to, tend to cover this election around this one personality, Netanyahu, who's been so dominant in Israeli politics, and every question is really about where do you stand relative to Netanyahu?

9:56 Absolutely. And then we're going to find out if a government can be formed after the election based on who is telling the truth right now. Right now, there are so many politicians who are saying they won't sit with Netanyahu, or they won't sit with ultra-Orthodox, or they won't sit with Arabs. And if they're all telling the truth, then we could be doomed to a political stalemate. But there is a rumor that it happens sometimes that politicians lie.

10:21 If they lie, that's actually a good thing, uh, because that means that we can avoid the stalemate. The problem is that in Israel, it's harder for a politician to lie than it is in America. Because in America, if you have every six years an election for senator, no one's gonna remember who didn't keep their promise.

10:40 But if you have elections every five months, you really can't get away with lying, and that's a problem. So in asking you what are the circumstances that can make this election different, what are those circumstances? Well, uh, if you have politicians who are actually willing to sit with Arabs in one way or another, even after October 7th, and allow a minority coalition to be formed, which is a rather common thing in Europe, then that is what could deal a death knell to Netanyahu.

11:10 Uh, but it's complicated. It's got a lot of moving parts, and they all have to work. Okay, so I wanna, wanna come back to that scenario that you just described. But let's just start. I just wanna make a level set here. For those who are not familiar with how parliamentary elections work, how would you describe what happens the morning after the election?

11:26 The morning after the election, we're going to have vote totals, but we're not gonna really know what they mean too much. The voter turnout is very important. Uh, the Jewish turnout has been consistent at around 70%. The Arab turnout fluctuates, which could make a very big difference in this election. And so only when the results become official we'll know how many seats every party got.

11:49 There'll be a lot of complicated math going on. They're all going to go to the president, the representatives of all the parties that crossed the 3.25% electoral threshold, which is about 170,000 votes. Any party that got less than that, the votes get thrown away, which makes it a big risk to vote for such parties.

12:06 And then the president, Isaac Herzog, who normally has a ceremonial role, becomes powerful for a short period of time. Because while the parties each recommend to him who can form a government, and by tradition, he asks the leader of the largest party or the largest political bloc, it's actually entirely at his discretion, and he can ask any Knesset member to form a government.

12:28 And when you say some votes get thrown away, this is, I do think, confusing for a lot of observers. So there's a threshold, meaning you have to get 3.25% of the overall vote before your party can even make it into the Knesset. And then what you are above that 3.25% determines how many seats you actually get in the parliament, in the Knesset.

12:51 But if you fall short, if you're at 3.24%, let's just say, which depending on how many people vote, it could be 120, 140, 150,000 votes. Those votes, if you don't meet the threshold, those votes get thrown away. And there's history that is the reason for all that. Israel was founded by immigrants that came from 100 different countries, and in an effort to make them empowered, we formed a parliament with one of the lowest electoral thresholds in the world.

13:18 And gradually it's been raised, but it's still a lot lower than most countries in Europe. They form ad hoc coalitions to, to get above that threshold, but that's what ends up deciding elections in Israel because if you've got two parties from your political bloc that together throw away 300,000 votes, then it's a good way to lose.

13:39 Right. Okay, in the introduction, as I said earlier, we established that there are likely many different possible outcomes, but I want to discuss with you three possible scenarios that are not broadly discussed. So let's turn to scenario one, Eisenkot's one-month government. Let's imagine Herzog gives Eisenkot the mandate to form a government, but he can't reach 61 seats without including the Arab parties, which, according to polling, you know, the Arab parties could represent anywhere from, you know, something like 10 to 15 seats.

14:12 So 10 to 15 seats out of 120-seat parliament in normal circumstances could give a bloc the number of seats necessary over 61 plus to form a government. But there's a scenario where Eisenkot can form a government, but not with the Arab parties. So could Bennett and Lieberman, who are the heads of two other parties, two smaller parties that are part of the opposition, quietly agree to a minority government backed by Ra'am, which is one of the Arab parties?

14:40 And what would the purpose of such a scenario be? Exactly. So they've both said that they won't join a government that has an Arab party in it. Bennett and Lieberman have both said that. Yes, because after October 7th, that's, uh, not as legitimate as it used to be, nor would they join a government that relies on Arab support from outside, and Lieberman has said he wouldn't even rely on a minority government temporarily, uh, abstaining.

15:07 And just so people understand what that model would serve, what you're describing right there, is if it takes 61 seats in 126-seat Knesset to form a government, if the Arab votes, again, assuming it's 10 to 15 seats, somewhere in that range, depending on, on which poll you're following, if they just say, "We're going to abstain," so that then brings the total number of seats that is voting on a new government down by 10 to 15 seats, which means you can form a government without hitting 61 as long as you're the largest bloc.

15:38 That is what's referred to as a minority government. So the president is going to give either Netanyahu or Eisenkot the first chance to form a government, and meanwhile, the Knesset will be meeting. And so even before Eisenkot would form a government, if he gets that first mandate, he could already start trying to pass laws.

15:58 And so if he would then try to pass three laws that his bloc cares about the most, one is drafting yeshiva students, one is forming a commission of inquiry to look into what went wrong on October 7th, and the other is one of the anti-Netanyahu laws that are out there, either term limits or legally preventing anyone under indictment from running.

16:21 If you pass one of those, then Netanyahu gets out of the picture, and then suddenly the Likud could join a government together with Eisenkot in which Eisenkot would be prime minister first, and the new leader of Likud, whoever would be elected, would be prime minister second, and that is actually what the people of Israel want.

16:43 Uh, a majority say that in the event of a, of a political stalemate that they want a unity government. The three votes that you just described, or the three sets of votes, would that be by the new members of Knesset even though a government has not been formed? Right. The Knesset already starts meeting before a government is formed.

17:00 It's important for the bloc that wins to replace the Knesset speaker immediately because that can-- that is control of the parliament, and that's before you have a prime minister. And then the president can get involved more. I see. Okay, and what about the scenario in which President Herzog offers Netanyahu a pardon in exchange for retiring from politics?

17:22 Could that open a door to a version, another path to a grand coalition between an Eisenkot and a post-Netanyahu Likud? Dan, I think that's actually the key to everything because I've written so many political eulogies [laughs] of Netanyahu over the decades that I've covered him, and he's always found a way to come back, and you, you know his father died at the age of 102.

17:45 He's only turning 77 next week. He would try to be prime minister forever. And so I, I think they should try to pass the indictment law and the term li- limit law and get him a pardon because then you know he's out of the way, and if he's been the cause of the political instability that made us have five elections in three and a half years and could make us have five elections in the next three and a half years, then that could really be the key to stability.

18:12 And do you think Netanyahu would accept that? Of course not. [laughs] Except, uh, I don't know. The pardon is what is the icing on the cake. You know, this trial has been going on for a very long time, and if the term limit bill passed anyway so he doesn't have a choice, then it helps him go out gracefully.

18:28 Gil, why don't we hear more about a version of, or versions of the scenario, this scenario here you're describing? Because anyone in Likud who had the audacity to challenge the leader of the party over the last few decades has suffered the political consequences, and they've learned not to make that mistake ever again.

18:48 Within the right, they've been airbrushed from any future prospects on the right. Look at how many political parties have been formed in Israel's history just because of personality differences with Netanyahu. So it's a kiss of death inside Likud to, uh, bring up the possibility that he won't be around forever. And what about with outside the right, though, Gil?

19:09 What about just broader society, those supporting the opposition bloc? You just don't hear people talk. I was just in Israel a week ago, and I was spending a lot of time with people on, you know, voting all in different directions. Those oppositional to Netanyahu, I never hear them talk about this. Is it because it's uncomfortable to talk about? They don't want to feel like they're countenancing a deal, a get out of jail free card, literally, the way they would see it, for Netanyahu?

19:34 Netanyahu has persuaded with his great persuasive abilities, uh, on one side, or brainwashed, if you're on the other side, Israelis to believe that he and only he can make them feel safe. And now there's a chance that Gadi Eisenkot, because he's Moroccan, because he appeals to Likud voters that also, uh, come from North African and Middle Eastern countries, that maybe this is the time to change it.

20:01 Right now today in Israel, people are talking about a controversial remark by a journalist very close to Netanyahu who referred to Eisenkot as a monkey controlled by Ashkenazim. And there's a big backlash, just like there was a backlash in 1981 when, uh, the Labor Party had a comedian make fun of, uh, the, uh, North African and Middle Eastern immigrants and call them a bad name.

20:27 This, this, this television personality, just to be clear, referred to Eisenkot as a Moroccan monkey. That was it. So it was like the, the, uh, the rap is that it's playing on the, his Sephardic background, and it's, you know, racist, discriminatory, however you want to characterize it. Well, that's why it's become so controversial.

20:43 And this is something that, that Eisenkot could take advantage of the same way that Menachem Begin took advantage of it to win the election in 1981. But why aren't people on the left talking about a deal for Netanyahu? That's what I'm trying to get. Is the reason that the vitriol towards Netanyahu is so deep and so intense that they can't even, they don't even want to talk about a deal for Netanyahu?

21:04 That, that's what I'm trying to get at here, is like, why, why aren't we hearing about this from them, from the opposition, even just generally from voters, opposition voters in, in broader society? Is it that they would be opposed to it, or they just don't want to talk about it right now? The goal is to woo voters from the Netanyahu camp to the anti-Netanyahu camp.

21:22 And in order to do that, you have to be careful and not attack him too harshly. And so they're, they're really being sensitive in how they do it. But Gadi Eisenkot was interviewed last night on one of the television stations here, and he said he will not form a government together with Netanyahu no matter what.

21:38 Okay, let's go to scenario number two, which is the war changes everything scenario. A war with Iran or the Houthis or in the West Bank escalates further, perhaps breaks out shortly after the election. Could a new national security emergency give Netanyahu the opportunity to recruit Bennett, Eisenkot, or individuals from their parties?

21:58 Okay, so we've talked about the impact that the president can have, but maybe it's not the President of Israel. Maybe it's the President of the United States that's going to decide our election. Uh, Ehud Barak, when he defeated Netanyahu in 1999, purposely used the same campaign strategist who worked for Bill Clinton with his blessing, and there had been talk that maybe there'd be an endorsement by Donald Trump of Netanyahu in this race.

22:23 But maybe he didn't need the endorsement ahead of the election. Maybe he needs it afterward. He's been talking about going to war with Iran again after the midterms in the United States, which are a week after our election. That could be the time when, if Netanyahu gets a couple more seats than, than Eisenkot's bloc, that Netanyahu's given the mandate by President Herzog, and if during that time the war with Iran starts, then maybe someone inside Gadi Eisenkot's bloc, maybe only part of Eisenkot's party, part of, uh, Bennett or, or Lieberman's party, they decide to join together with Netanyahu temporarily due to the war.

23:05 Let's not forget, after October 7th, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, they brought their party into the coalition even though they said they wouldn't. Even though they had said they wouldn't run against Netanyahu a little over a year before, they then joined. They said it was a national emergency, and they joined the government, and they joined the war council. Yes.

23:23 Uh, we had our election in November 1st, and, uh, the war broke out on October 7th, and four days later, they were there inside the governing coalition, and, uh, they stayed there for several months. Yeah, and they strengthened, they bolstered Netanyahu's coalition. They, they expanded it. War makes people break promises. We'll be right back.

23:43 [gentle music] I want to tell you about the organization sponsoring this episode, Magen David Adom, Israel's national emergency services system, which runs Israel's entire national blood supply. Years ago, they realized that a national service needs a central infrastructure, and Israel's blood supply must be kept safe no matter what. So they built an underground facility.

24:07 The Marcus National Blood Services Center in Ramla was designed to keep working through miso- chemical, and biological attacks, and through natural disasters. It was completed before October 7th, at a time when three stories underground struck a lot of people as more than anyone would ever need. Nobody knew what was coming. MDA built it anyway.

24:30 During the war with Iran, MDA moved its entire command and dispatch operation underground. Every ambulance in the country was being directed from inside a facility somebody decided to build years earlier. That decision was made possible by donors. Help fund emergency response at afmda.org/callmeback. [instrumental music plays] And we're back with Israeli political analyst Gil Hoffman.

24:59 Okay, let's go to scenario three, which is perhaps the most surprising scenario, which is Avigdor Lieberman, who I'm just telling you, Gil, I have, having a lot of conversations with people over here in the West about the Israeli elections, and I keep telling people, "Keep an eye on Avigdor Lieberman."

25:17 People have no idea what I'm talking about. Most people don't even know who he is. I've never seen a figure less known or less understood who has such an inverse correlation between what people know about him and his [laughs] likelihood or possibility or potential to become prime minister. So there is a scenario where Avigdor Lieberman with Ofer Winter's support, which is a, he leads another small party. First of all, briefly, who's Avigdor Lieberman?

25:42 Avigdor Lieberman was the director general of the prime minister's office, meaning Netanyahu's top aide when he was the prime minister the first time back in the '90s. Keep in mind for our listeners, Lieberman had established himself as one of the political voices representing the wave of Russian and former Soviet Union immigrants that had come into Israel in the 1990s.

26:02 Israel's population expanded after the fall of the Soviet Union. About a fifth of Israel's population, Israel's population increased by about a fifth because of this wave, and so they became a major force in Israeli politics. And Avigdor Lieberman, who had been the equivalent of, like, the chief of staff to Prime Minister Netanyahu from '96 to '99, leaves the Likud, leaves Netanyahu, forms his own party, and he's considered very right wing on security issues and on Palestinian issues, very hostile to the Haredim, to the ultra-Orthodox, and their demands that they have an exemption to serve in the military.

26:38 And even though he's so right wing, he's been part of the opposition bloc. He previously had been part of the right-wing bloc in previous elections, and beginning with the 2021 government, the Lapid-Bennett government, Lieberman had moved firmly into the opposition. Even though he's of the right, he served in that government, that government led by Lieberman and by Bennett and Lapid.

27:02 He's now considered part of the opposition again, but he could become prime minister even though he's polling at, what, six, seven, eight seats? I mean, he's not gonna win a lot of seats. So, but he's been foreign minister, finance minister, and defense minister. He, he has the qualifications to be prime minister, and you have to remember two terms ago, the reason why Naftali Bennett became the prime minister when there were parties in his bloc that had a lot more seats was because he played the game smartly.

27:30 He wasn't in a, the pro-Netanyahu bloc or the anti-Netanyahu bloc. So to get him to get over to the anti-Netanyahu side, they let him have the biggest job. And over here, we, we talked about how this is a competition of animosity between hatred of Netanyahu, hatred of Arabs, and hatred of the ultra-Orthodox.

27:50 Well, Lieberman's animosity toward all three is the strongest, so his price is the highest. So it might make sense for him to be prime minister, and he has the greatest chance of wooing parties from the Netanyahu bloc in order to join a, a governing coalition that would oust Netanyahu rather than Eisenkot, even if he'd get a lot less seats than Eisenkot would.

28:15 And there's another one of these parties that is considered very hawkish that has just emerged in recent weeks. This Ofer Winter, who's a former senior officer in the IDF, also considered very hawkish on security matters. And you are saying he could join with Lieberman to help Lieberman become prime minister.

28:33 Why might Winter accept Lieberman where he couldn't accept Eisenkot or Bennett as prime minister? So Winter's party is complicated. It's actually the most hypocritical party I've ever seen in all my years covering politics because on the one hand, they say that they want a commission of inquiry into October 7th, and they want to draft Yeshiva students, and they want to improve Israel's image.

28:56 Those are their big three issues. But on the other hand, they say they want Netanyahu and his bloc to continue in office. Well, how are you gonna form a commission of inquiry with Netanyahu there? He's blocked every attempt to do that. How are you gonna draft ultra-Orthodox with the ultra-Orthodox in the government? It's pretty hard. How are you gonna improve Israel's image with Ben-Gvir?

29:15 Dan, you know better than me that that's a, a problem. But perhaps they'd get over the Netanyahu thing and get to do the other three if, uh, Lieberman would be the one who forms the government with the anti-Netanyahu bloc. So Winter has pro-- as you laid out, he's promised a tougher approach to drafting the Yeshiva students, and he's in a tougher approach to a state inquiry into October 7th.

29:37 So that would be the basis upon which he r- could rationalize joining the opposition. Well, no matter what happens after the election, he's gonna have to break a campaign promise one way or another, uh, or n- maybe break three [laughs]. So- Right... uh, there's another party also, the, uh, party of the reservists that's also on the right that said that they would only join a coalition that had a majority of Zionists, where they're not counting the ultra-Orthodox at all in the count so that that puts them in the anti-Netanyahu bloc without officially saying it.

30:05 They, because they're right wing, would also prefer to have Lieberman and not Eisenkot form the government. And you're talking with that party, this is the Hendo Party. You're talking about four to five seats, according to polling, again, four to five seats, so tiny number, barely above the threshold, assuming they get above the threshold, and you're saying they could become the kingmaker here.

30:23 Absolutely, and, uh, so you could see Ayelet Shaked, who I'm sure is familiar to your audience. She's number three on the list of, uh, the reservists list. And again, this idea of a party that has won seven or eight seats, in the case of, uh, Lieberman, if that's where he was, or nine, whatever it may be.

30:40 The idea of a, a leader of a party with so few seats becoming prime minister before Naftali Bennett became prime minister with, I think, seven seats in the 2020 to '21 government, that period, that election period. Before Bennett w- became prime minister with so few seats, that was unheard of. You either had to be the leader of Likud or the leader of the, then the broad center left party, which was Labour.

31:03 But the idea of a small party becoming prime minister was just unheard of. Bennett broke that. That, one could argue, was an outlier and never to be repeated again, or it was precedent -setting, and it is the new normal in terms of being a factor in future elections, which would pave the way for Lieberman.

31:19 And there's a reason why in the anti -Netanyahu bloc, they're not saying who their candidate is for prime minister, because there are plenty of people who prefer Bennett or who prefer Lieberman over Eisenkot. And if they would say, uh, that Eisenkot is the candidate, even though Eisenkot built a list that has on it many candidates that are right -wing and religious Zionist, they would lose votes to the pro -Netanyahu bloc, and Netanyahu would have an easier time forming a government.

31:46 So this is a very interesting point. I would say perhaps the most important point for folks over here in the diaspora to pay attention to is I am constantly hearing from people in the diaspora who want the current government to disappear. They want the opposition government to win for a variety of reasons, and they are very frustrated with the opposition because they won't unify behind one leader, and they think it makes the opposition look weak, that they're all still angling and elbowing each other.

32:15 Even though they're saying, "We're the opposition," they won't settle on who the leader of the opposition is. And I just constantly hear this complaint here in the diaspora. They don't-- this point you're making is, which is what the opposition needs to do is they need to figure out how to appeal right -wing voters to the opposition.

32:31 And if there are right -wing voters who are comfortable with the possibility of, say, Lieberman being prime minister, they could then vote for the Lieberman party, Yisrael Beiteinu. They could vote, which is his party. They could vote for, loosely defined, the opposition bloc because they say, "Oh, Lieberman's my guy. He could be prime minister.

32:49 I'm voting for him 'cause he's a right -wing guy, and I'm a right -wing voter, and I'm comfortable voting for him." So they would calculate or rationalize. But if they're being told, "You can vote for Lieberman, but the opposition government, the new government, is not going to be led by Lieberman," they may say, "Whoa, I'm not going to vote for the opposition.

33:06 I'm going back to voting for one of the parties that will serve with Netanyahu." That is why they're uncomfortable declaring who the leader of the opposition is. Absolutely, and that's why Netanyahu's campaign slogan, "It's either the right or Palestine," which rhymes in Hebrew, um, is, uh, something we negated by there being parties on the right that are anti -Netanyahu that people could feel comfortable voting with.

33:33 And that could end up being what decides, uh, an election that could be our closest since 1996, the first one in which Netanyahu ran. So Gil, in wrapping things up, we just went through three scenarios that have not been discussed in the mainstream media. Again, the minority government, which is some version of, like, an Eisenkot one -month government, minority government, the Netanyahu -Hertzog orchestrated deal government that puts Eisenkot atop a perhaps short -term or weak minority government.

34:03 Second scenario is there's a war, and parties start shifting around and agreeing to go serve with Netanyahu. Scenario three is Avigdor Lieberman becomes prime minister. Again, we're not saying these are the most likely scenarios. We've just here at Call Me Back, we've been, and our Israel Votes team, have been focusing on these three scenarios because they're just not getting as much attention as some other scenarios.

34:25 So out of those three, Gil, I put it to you, which do you find most plausible? Well, I've got to be careful because my neighbor who's, might be listening next door is number 10 on Lieberman's list. But, uh, [chuckles] it being a small country here i- in Israel. But I think that the number one scenario is becoming increasingly likely, that there will be an effort by the anti -Netanyahu bloc to be more creative, uh, that they believe that Netanyahu has harmed Israel's image irrevocably since October 7th, and his mistakes, uh, from October 7th have to be punished.

34:55 And so they're going to find a way, even if it means that they're breaking campaign promises that they're saying over and over again today. Then there'll be a different government that makes more of an effort to fight the, uh, narrative war that I, uh, wrote about in my book, and that is the concern of Jews who, uh, are there in New York and the rest of America suffering from the antisemitism that's been spiraling out of control.

35:21 Gil, for those who may not follow Israeli politics, the nitty -gritty, the details with, you know, the granularity that, that you and I do, what do you think this election in 10 days says, given the structure, the dynamic, the personalities, the shifting alliances, the themes of the election? Every election in Israel, like many elections in democracies, tell you something about more broadly what's going on in that country and that society.

35:47 Given what we're talking about it, what does it say about what's going on in the State of Israel today? Well, there's a very big question here. Are we Netanyahu? Are Americans Donald Trump? Nobody would think so abroad. Nobody would paint all of America with that brush. But in Israel, that's been happening, that people see our country in the image of the way that they see our longest -serving prime minister.

36:11 And so there's this question that would be answered after Netanyahu would be ousted. Can we paint ourselves a, a different way and say that everything that the world didn't like, that Netanyahu did that, and everything the world did like about Israel, Israel did that, and, uh, reshape our image entirely?

36:29 That's something that could end up happening from this election, it, or it could fail. A - anything could happen. Okay, Gil, we will leave it there. You know, we, we could do hours on every one of these scenarios, but I, I just wanted to do a, uh, crash course for our listeners, and you definitely provided it, so thank you for being with us.

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