The Based Direction

We're back from vacation and chipping away at the summer backlog. Before the substance: listeners weigh in on our AI-generated cover art, Claude's new prediction scorecard grades our respective forecasting records, and Justices Kagan and Barrett take the Court's budget request — and some docket-terminology talk — to Congress. Then we spend the rest of the show on T.M. v. University of Maryland Medical System Corporation (supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-197_bp7c.pdf), in which the Rooker-Feldman doctrine, pronounced dead in the Green Bag two decades ago, proves alive enough to reach state-court judgments still on appeal. We try to figure out what the doctrine actually is, whether § 1257 or § 1331 is doing the work, and why the Court's committed formalists split down the middle. Along the way: insider trading as a University of Chicago virtue, a concurrence that may be playing a long game on federal habeas, and a dissent that's "exactly correct and not the law."
Highlights
• [00:00:21] Opening: back from vacation, episode 26 of the season, chasing the all-time record of 29

• [00:01:15] Listener verdict on the AI back-catalog covers — Proximity Mines in the Facility gets its due, and no, we're not commissioning an artist

• [00:03:33] Will's Kant remarks draw "especially strenuous criticism"; he declines to recant

• [00:04:38] Claude's prediction scorecard grades the back catalog: Dan 82.4%, Will 71.2% — hedged singles vs. high-variance swings

• [00:07:06] Are prediction markets just gambling? Kalshi, Manifold, and insider trading as a University of Chicago virtue

• [00:10:16] Justices Kagan and Barrett testify before the Appropriations Committees: the security budget, life with a detail, and a remembrance of Lindsey Graham

• [00:14:03] Kagan on the "terminology nightmare" — shadow vs. emergency vs. interim docket — and why the shadow docket "is not currently shadowy"

• [00:16:14] The main event: T.M. v. University of Maryland Medical System Corporation, a fed-courts-class case if there ever was one

• [00:17:44] Doctrine origins: Rooker v. Fidelity Trust, District of Columbia Court of Appeals v. Feldman, Exxon Mobil v. Saudi Basic's attempt to bury them, and Sam Bray's Green Bag obituary

• [00:20:35] What Rooker actually held: no bill in equity to void a state judgment — only the Supreme Court has appellate jurisdiction over state courts

• [00:25:17] The unusual lineup: Sotomayor writing for Thomas, Alito, Kavanaugh, and Jackson; Barrett in dissent with the Chief, Kagan, and Gorsuch

• [00:28:53] Where does the doctrine come from — § 1257 exclusivity, § 1331 "original" jurisdiction, or something constitutional about "inferior" courts?

• [00:38:42] Will's alternative: you're either in appellate mode or collateral estoppel mode — and the Full Faith and Credit Act already covers this

• [00:42:44] The Thomas concurrence: Rooker "correct as an original matter" — and footnote 4's possible long game on federal habeas

• [00:46:34] The puzzle of the missing Feldman: Thomas's concurrence is almost entirely about Rooker

• [00:48:06] The Barrett dissent — "exactly correct and not the law" — and Rooker-Feldman given an inch

• [00:51:49] What goes in the fed courts supplement, and whether Hart and Wechsler needs a bigger Rooker-Feldman chapter again

• [00:53:25] Sign-off: an efficient episode; browse the back-catalog art at dividedargument.com

Relevant links
Cases
• T.M. v. University of Maryland Medical System Corp. (scotusblog.com/cases/t-m-v-university-of-maryl…) — slip opinion (supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-197_bp7c.pdf)

• Rooker v. Fidelity Trust Co., 263 U.S. 413 (1923) (supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/263/413)

• District of Columbia Court of Appeals v. Feldman, 460 U.S. 462 (1983) (supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/460/462)

• Exxon Mobil Corp. v. Saudi Basic Industries Corp., 544 U.S. 280 (2005) (supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/544/280)

• Prentis v. Atlantic Coast Line Co., 211 U.S. 210 (1908) (supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/211/210)

Commentary & articles
• Samuel Bray, "Rooker Feldman (1923–2006)," 9 Green Bag 2d (2006) (chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/journal_articles/1…) — the obituary

• William Baude, "The Interim Docket" (SSRN, forthcoming U. Chi. L. Rev.) (papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=67…) — now with Justice Kagan's terminology testimony incorporated

• David Lat, "Justices Kagan And Barrett Are The Spokeswomen SCOTUS Needs Right Now" (Original Jurisdiction) (davidlat.substack.com/p/supreme-court-scotus-j…)

• SCOTUSblog, "Justices Kagan and Barrett testify before Congress" (scotusblog.com/2026/07/justices-kagan-and-barr…)

Other
• The custom back-catalog episode art (dividedargument.com) — tell us your favorites