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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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  1. Tech is Selling Off. AI Debt Fears Are Rising. So Why Does a $4B Manager See a Reverse Bubble?

    Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors makes the case for an AI "reverse bubble" and explains how earnings growth, interest rates, and valuation shape his market outlook. Rather than treating AI spending as proof of excess, he look

  2. The S&P 500 Is Just 50 Stocks. The Nasdaq Is a 67% AI Bet. Kai Wu on What Else Is Hiding in Your Funds

    Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital shows how to uncover hidden AI exposure, overlapping ETF holdings, and unintended factor bets in your portfolio. Owning several funds can still leave you dependent on the same companies and the same AI spending c

  3. Dr. Daniel Crosby on Behaviorally Optimal Portfolios, Risk Composure and the Casino Myth

    Daniel Crosby explains why investors can lose money in winning funds and how to build a portfolio they can actually hold. Picking the right investment is only part of the challenge; staying with it through discomfort is where behavior can o

  4. Baird's Tech Strategist Says This Isn't 2000. So Why Is He Warning Against Buying the Dip?

    Ted Mortonson of Baird explains why conviction in the AI boom doesn't mean buying every dip in tech stocks. He joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to explain what experienced technology investors watch before putting money back to wor

  5. He Asked 25 Finance Pros How They Invest Their Own Money: Brian Portnoy on What the Models Get Wrong

    Brian Portnoy of Shaping Wealth explores why experienced investors build very different portfolios—and what that means for your own money. In How I Invest My Money Volume Two, 25 new contributors explain how they invest their personal wealt

  6. Rob Arnott on the Hidden Costs of Passive Investing and the Real Winners From AI

    Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and chairman of Syzygy Asset Management, examines S&P 500 concentration and who could benefit most from AI. Owning today’s market leaders is not necessarily the same as owning tomorrow’s biggest in

  7. The S&P 500 Is Only 50 Stocks. 70% of the Index Is in a Correction. Did the Sell-Off Already Happen?

    Paisley Nardini of Tema ETFs explores AI investing, S&P 500 concentration, and how to build a portfolio around changing market risks. How can investors participate in powerful growth trends without making every holding a bet on the same out

  8. We Asked T. Rowe Price's $17B International Manager Why Value is Winning Again — and What the S&P 500 Leaves Out

    Colin McQueen of T. Rowe Price explains what is changing for international value stocks and how he separates cheap businesses from opportunities that can improve. Higher interest rates, industrial investment, and corporate reform are reshap

  9. Tech Is Rolling Over. Yields Are Falling. Why Jim Paulsen is Watching the Walmart Recession Signal

    Jim Paulsen sees a risk of a stock market correction as financial conditions tighten and investors grow comfortable with tech's long run of leadership. But his warning does not require a recession or the end of the bull market. In this mont

  10. AI Productivity Is Real. 83% of Stocks Are 10% Off Highs. Why Does Barry Ritholtz Like Bonds Again?

    Barry Ritholtz, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler explore why AI's real productivity gains don't automatically translate into an investing edge. From stock picking and market concentration to the financing behind the AI buildout, they separate en

  11. The Winners That Get Away | Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom on Holding Great Businesses

    Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom explore the tension between holding great businesses and keeping a winning stock from becoming too much portfolio risk. Why do two investors who believe in letting winners compound also use 10% position limit

  12. Katie Stockton Still Sees a Bull Market. So Why Is Her ETF Only 50% in Stocks?

    Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies explains why the S&P 500 can reach record highs while many individual stocks struggle. She sees the bull market as intact, but weaker participation raises an important question for diversified investors

  13. Tom Maher on Small-Cap Investing, AI Infrastructure and Opportunities Beyond Big Tech

    Tom Maher of Hilton Capital Management explains what is changing for small-cap stocks as earnings improve and AI spending reaches beyond big tech. After years of justified large-cap leadership, he sees reasons to revisit smaller companies w

  14. Ed Yardeni Still Sees S&P 10,000 by 2029. So Why Is He Getting More Cautious?

    Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research explains why he still sees the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2029, even as higher oil prices and bond yields make him more cautious near term. His destination hasn't changed, but the timetable has: he has pushed

  15. The 10-Year Hit a 24-Year High. Nobody Is Buying Puts. Are You Watching the Wrong Market?

    Andy Constan, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman examine rising bond yields, options positioning and the inflation risks facing stocks. What happens if the rate relief traders are betting on never arrives? On this month's Last Call, Jack Foreha

  16. They Beat All US Stock Funds Since 2003 | Michael Baron on the AI Winners Investors Miss

    Michael Baron of Baron Capital explains his case for AI beneficiaries beyond the biggest tech stocks, including software companies the market fears will be disrupted. He joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to discuss how competitive ad

  17. The Game Was Rigged in Their Favor. 28% Went Bust Anyway | Kris Abdelmessih on How to Size Bets

    How much of your portfolio does a good investment idea deserve? Kris Abdelmessih of Moontower joins Matt Zeigler to explain why having an edge is only part of the decision: position size can determine whether favorable odds translate into l

  18. We Asked the Data Journalist Who Rebuilt the Jobs Report What the Headline Number Hides

    What are headline jobs and inflation numbers missing about the economy investors actually face? Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to examine how a changing workforce, rising fuel costs, and differences in household spendi

  19. He Lost $157,000 in 3 Minutes | Jack Raines on the Lesson Winning Never Taught Him

    Jack Raines turned $6,000 into roughly $400,000 trading SPACs, then lost $157,000 in three minutes after taking a very different bet. The author of Young Money joins Matt Zeigler to discuss what that experience taught him about investing ri

  20. The AI Gap Is Closing | Jason Hsu on China, Momentum Crashes and the S&P’s Seven-Stock Bet

    Jason Hsu, founder and CIO of Rayliant Global Advisors and co-founder of Research Affiliates, joins Excess Returns to discuss the US-China AI race, the economics of AI spending, and what market concentration means for investors. We explore

  21. David Rosenberg on Why He Wants the Bonds Everyone Hates — and Where He's Hiding in Stocks

    David Rosenberg returns to Excess Returns to explain his bullish case for Treasury bonds, why he expects inflation and economic growth to slow, and the risks he sees in an AI-driven stock market. The Rosenberg Research founder joins Matt Ze

  22. Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson on AI, Private Markets, and the Hidden Risks in Index Funds

    Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson joins Matt Zeigler to explore how AI, blockchain tokenization, and private markets are reshaping investing and asset management. They discuss what these changes mean for individual investors, from person

  23. Jim Paulsen on the Weakening Economy, Tech Bear Market Risk and the Bull Market Built on Fear

    Jim Paulsen joins Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler on the latest Jim Paulsen Show to explore why booming AI earnings may be masking a weakening U.S. economy, and what that means for stocks, bonds, and Federal Reserve policy. Using 27 charts,

  24. We Asked Fidelity's Ex-President What Made Peter Lynch Great — and Where Private Credit Risk Hides

    Former Fidelity president and MFS chairman Bob Pozen joins Excess Returns to discuss retirement investing, the risks in private credit, and why he favors a 90% stock and 10% cash portfolio for investors who can cover their living expenses w

  25. Everyone Hates Bonds. Why Two Bond Managers Say You're Hating the Wrong Ones

    John Kerschner and Michael Contopoulos of Janus Henderson join Matt Zeigler to explain why persistent inflation and higher interest rates call for a different approach to bond investing. They explore short-duration bonds, AAA CLOs, mortgage

  26. All-In on the S&P 500 Worked for 18 Years | Jared Dillian on Why It's Still Wrong

    Jared Dillian joins Matt Zeigler to discuss The Awesome Portfolio, his approach to asset allocation built around 20% each in stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate. They explore how diversification, annual rebalancing, and managing vola

  27. Nvidia Is Betting on Its Customers. Gen Z Is Betting on Sports. Will It All End the Same Way?

    Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler on Click Beta to explore how sports betting, leveraged ETFs and speculative behavior are blurring the line between gambling and investing. They also examine AI circular financing, hyperscaler

  28. Bearish Into November. Room to Run After: Why Dan Niles Is Watching Hyperscaler Credit Default Swaps

    Dan Niles joins Excess Returns to explain why he believes AI is a genuine industrial revolution and a bubble at the same time, with significant opportunity still ahead but growing risks in semiconductors, software, AI CapEx and credit marke

  29. The Fed Credibility Narrative Has Turned | Ben Hunt on AI, the Consumer and Financial Repression

    Ben Hunt joins Matt Zeigler to explain why damaged Fed and Treasury credibility could matter just as four major risks converge across private credit, AI financing, oil and the consumer. They discuss financial repression, rising long-term ra

  30. Sticky Inflation. Cheap Volatility. A Less Predictable Fed. Why Aren’t Markets More Worried?

    This month on Last Call, Kevin Muir, Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt and Brent Kochuba break down the market through four lenses: macro, inflation data, narrative and options positioning. They examine whether midterm election volatility is underprice

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