688. When Is a Bet Not a Bet?

That’s the question at the heart of a battle between Kalshi and state gambling regulators. As prediction markets boom, there are other questions, too — about insider trading, market manipulation, and whether the public has turned against them. (Part two of a two-part series (freakonomics.com/the-price-of-prediction).)

• SOURCES:• Gary Gensler (mitsloan.mit.edu/faculty/directory/gary-gensler), former chair of the S.E.C. and the C.F.T.C.
• Robin Hanson (economics.gmu.edu/people/rhanson), professor of economics at George Mason University.
• Nicole Kagan (linkedin.com/in/nicole-kagan), head of research at Kalshi.
• Tarek Mansour (news.kalshi.com/p/tarek-mansour), co-founder and C.E.O. of Kalshi.

• RESOURCES:• "Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs? (onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jopp.1…)" by Robin Hanson (Journal of Political Philosophy, 2013).

• EXTRAS:• "Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino? (freakonomics.com/podcast/are-prediction-market…)" by Freakonomics Radio (2026).
• "He Helped Clean Up the Last Crash. Does He See Another One Coming? (freakonomics.com/podcast/he-helped-clean-up-th…)" by Freakonomics Radio (2026).
• "The Economics of Sports Gambling (freakonomics.com/podcast/the-economics-of-spor…)," by Freakonomics Radio (2019).

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