Tamay Besiroglu on AI in 2030: Scaling, Automation, and AI Agents

Tamay Besiroglu joins the podcast to discuss scaling, AI capabilities in 2030, breakthroughs in AI agents and planning, automating work, the uncertainties of investing in AI, and scaling laws for inference-time compute. Here's the report we discuss in the episode:
epochai.org/blog/can-ai-scaling-continue-throu…
Timestamps:
00:00 How important is scaling?
08:03 How capable will AIs be in 2030?
18:33 AI agents, reasoning, and planning
23:39 Automating coding and mathematics
31:26 Uncertainty about investing in AI
40:34 Gap between investment and returns
45:30 Compute, software and data
51:54 Inference-time compute
01:08:49 Returns to software R&D
01:19:22 Limits to expanding compute