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Shownotes
The boys are back! It's only been like 13 days!! Chill!! Also - the Iran conflict isn't just a headline risk - it's a physical supply crisis hiding in plain sight. Despite oil sitting at $93, Marko argues the world is weeks away from a non-linear cliff: floating storage is depleting, Iranian and Russian sanctioned oil relief is a 30-day band-aid, and by mid-April, petrochemicals, LNG, semiconductors, and plastics all face cascading disruption.
His verdict: this resolves, or it goes Mad Max.
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Timestamps:
Welcome
Beer And Banter
Trump Pause And Troops
Oil Shock Timeline
Houthis And Red Sea
Shortages Beyond Oil
Troop Math Reality
War Outlook Shifts
Island Invasion Scenarios
Iran Constraints Debate
Market Mispricing Pain
China And Allies Fallout
China Leverage on Iran
Low Conviction Warnings
Middle East War Normalized
Tacit Rules of Engagement
Pushback and Pain Threshold
Markets Start to Crack
Munitions and Time Limits
Europe Energy Exposure
Europe Must Get Real
Germany Nuclear Wake Up
Multipolar Pragmatism
Europe Virtue Signaling
Summing Up the Fog
Two Week Ticking Clock
Constraint Framework Equilibrium
Israel Leverage And Lebanon
Age Of Revisionism
Realism And The 19th Century
Inequality And Soft Power
NBA Talk Starts Here
Relegation And 30 Teams
Baseball Overtakes Basketball
Wrap Up Mad Max Title
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Referenced in the Show:
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics
Marko’s Twitter: x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
