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Global Data Pod: EM capital flows discontented we remain
Jahangir Aziz and Katie Marney discuss sluggish EM capital flows against a backdrop of trade uncertainty, risks to global growth, elevated treasury yields, and a weaker dollar. EM capital flows have been languishing and shifting in composit
Global Data Pod Weekender: Fake it till you make it
As trade (hand-shake) deals get made, it is looking increasingly likely that the effective tariff rate is going to settle very close to the 22% rate initially announced on April 2. And yet, the global expansion looks resilient through 1H25.
Global Data Pod Weekender: Inflation, politics, and central banking
The latest data keep the inflation and growth backdrop challenging for central banks. Politics are an added wrinkle for the Fed. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 18 July 2025. This communication is provided
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: June 2025
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson to discuss key takeaways from the June CPI reports and key drivers shaping the outlook. Global core inflation remains stuck close to a 3%ar following a broad-based––and somewhat unexpected––firmi
Global Data Pod Weekender: Let me count the ways
Our global forecast looks for a sharp slowing in growth in the coming months, concentrated in the US. Despite this contrasting with the more benign outlook apparent in risk markets, we see downside risks edging higher on US trade and immigr
Global Data Pod Weekender: Taking stock at midyear
We published our midyear outlook this week, highlighting expectations for a significant stagflationary shift in 2H25 and our limited confidence in forecasting the magnitude of this shift. We expect global GDP growth to fall well below poten
Global Data Pod Weekender: You can get there from here
The first half is tracking roughly in line with our trend-like outlook just ahead of the US election last year. However, 2H25 should deliver a very different picture if our forecast is right. Assessing risks ahead of such an anticipated slo
Global Data Pod Weekender: Gauging the coming slowdown
The drags on global growth related to the trade war are building but there remains considerable uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of the coming downshift in global growth. For its part we expect the FOMC will remain cautious this
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor: Tariff impact delayed but not denied
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss key takeaways from the May CPI reports and the outlook for the rest of the year. While May inflation surprised softer in both the US and Euro area, pass-throug
Global Data Pod Weekender: Identification in the time of front-loading
The global economy looks to be posting trend-like growth in 1H25. How much of this is underlying resilience in a healthy expansion and how much is transitory front-loading set to reverse in 2H25 is central to the outlook. The data show resi
