2026 Midterms Polling Update

0:07 Welcome to It Could Happen Here. I'm Garrison Davis, joined by Robert Evans. Hello.

0:14 Hello, Garrison Davis. How are you doing today?

0:17 I'm doing okay. I'm really, I'm getting prepared to vote. I'm psyching myself up.

0:23 Just like the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps told you to do, huh?

0:27 I think that's what we want to start with.

0:28 This isn't, this isn't... In general, this episode will be kind of going over the midterm polls as they are in early October, kind of what we can get a sense of the election about a month out, now that we're just a few weeks away from the election. But a few weeks ago, the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

0:51 Prince of the pod.

0:53 Sure.

0:54 At this point, man.

0:59 One bad day, full Stalinist, full Maoist.

1:04 I mean, that's more, it's a slightly differentist.

1:07 A few weeks ago, the IRGC released a 26-page letter, not short.

1:14 Not strong on brevity, the IRGC.

1:17 Addressed to the American people, a spokesperson from the IRGC told Reuters, quote, the American people are not knowledgeable about many developments. We believe if they knew more, they would think differently and take other decisions, unquote.

1:34 You guys might have more faith in the American people than I do at this point.

1:38 The start of the letter and how it's addressed reads, to the honorable people of the United States of America, the scholars, the students, and the members of the media. I think that last part is important because at least some of them know that The American people are not reading a 26-page letter. This is going to be mostly read by journalists.

1:56 This is going to be read by nerds on Twitter. And blue sky, I guess.

1:59 And nerds on Twitter.

2:01 Yeah.

2:02 Now, I actually was able to get a short video. The IRGC also released a short video kind of summarizing the letter. And I will play that here for Robert. So that's, yeah, that's the special, that's the special video.

2:26 Yeah, that really is. That's something else.

2:29 So there's a few sections before. The bulk of the letter is arguing why Iran is the victor in the war, concrete evidence of Iran's victory. They have a section on the meaning of, quote, death to America.

2:40 Yeah.

2:41 Which reads, quote, Death to America does not in any way express any ill will toward the American people who have themselves suffered through the same oppression. Death to America is a prayer for the eradication of the diabolical ruling elite whose seat of power is in the White House. And the letter goes on to say that the RGC and the people of Iran have no feeling of hostility toward the American people.

3:03 And then they ask, how can the U.S. be saved?

3:07 And this is what leads to the bulk of the letter saying, which is essentially trying to get Americans to vote harder.

3:15 You're finished, fascism.

3:17 Oh, man.

3:18 But there's also a few other interesting kind of like name drops here. Quote, God will come to the aid of the American people if they decide to change course. Thankfully, Americans are waking up to the truth. Over the past two years, Americans have participated in numerous demonstrations in cities across the U.S. to express their outrage at Israel's genocidal actions in Gaza.

3:38 Moreover.

3:39 The no-kings rallies that swept across the U.S. last year were a nationwide repudiation of the burgeoning autocratic tendencies within the American government. These powerful manifestations of collective action are evidence of a national awakening spreading through the U.S. Polls show that the majority of Americans, especially younger Americans, no longer wish to be complicit in their government's crimes against other nations, unquote. Part of what makes this so funny to me is how diametrically opposed it is to the messaging coming out of like, you know, U.S. based like Maoists or like anti-imperialists.

4:19 You know?

4:19 Oh yeah, like the U.S. far left. Absolutely. They're so much, so much more generous to the American people.

4:28 Yeah, that's something that's really, that's really funny to me. As for the vote harder section, let's read one paragraph here. Your response may be that you do not accept these atrocious actions, but are powerless to do anything about them. This answer, however, is not acceptable. You are the ones who empower with your votes. The government had allowed to do what it wants. Although American politicians often win your votes through deception of false promises, as Trump did, you can change the makeup of the government if you apply the criteria for good leadership in choosing the people you vote into office.

5:01 See, guys, I gotta tell you, it's not that easy. First off, I've voted every time I've gotten the chance, pretty much. I don't think I've ever empowered anyone with my votes.

5:12 You know, it's one of those kind of Adam Curtis moments.

5:15 Yeah.

5:15 We have the IRGC advocating the ideal of electoral politics, something that does not exist really in Iran either.

5:25 It's consistent with there's that one famous interview with an Iranian cleric where he's like, as Alexander de Tocqueville, who I'm sure all Americans have read once said, he's like, guys, you are way overestimating us.

5:41 So, yeah, if you have any sort of anti-imperialist impulses as per as per the IRGC, get your voter registration up to date.

5:50 Get your voter registration card and get out there. If you're in line, stay in line.

5:55 That's right.

5:59 So part of why this letter was released is because it is just a few weeks away from the midterms. We are less than a month away from the 2026 midterm elections. And so I thought we should do a little update on polling and take a look at some of the close races.

6:12 Sure. And let's start by talking about the current makeup of Congress.

6:16 Right now in the House, 218 seats are held.

6:18 By Republicans, 214 Democrats.

6:22 By Democrats, and there's one independent who caucuses with the Republicans. 218 seats are what's needed for a majority. This has been a very small majority that the Republicans have been able to hold onto in the House these past few years. The Cook Political Report is forecasting that the Dems will pick up around five to 15 seats in the midterms, likely putting them in charge of the House with anywhere between 220 to 230 seats. And this lead in polling and their projected victory has only grown these past few weeks.

6:57 It's not becoming a closer race for the Republicans.

7:00 No, this things don't look good for them because gasoline costs all of the money in your pocket now. That is a huge factor. That's a big part of the reason.

7:09 I'll go over some of the kind of main issues driving the election person polling and gas prices is like. number one or number two.

7:16 Yeah, I have trouble imagining anything other than other cost of living stuff being like a larger impact on voters.

7:25 Something that is interesting, the redistricting across Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah will likely have a minimal impact in the results like in total. There's obviously for the people actually impacted the people whose votes are being diluted, especially.

7:42 Not that this is not bad or a problem. It's just they have fucked up enough that it's not going to benefit them to the extent. That's what it seemed like to me, that they're not going to benefit the way that they were.

7:53 No. So I don't want to discount the impact of the erosion of the Voting Rights Act by any means, or the just larger structural issues of partisan gerrymandering. But an analysis by Harvard estimated a net gain of only two seats for Republicans... in these midterms, though other estimates give them a few more seats, anywhere between five to nine.

8:15 So we're looking at somewhere between a couple seats. I think nine is probably a bit optimistic.

8:20 Yeah, for the Republicans.

8:21 Around two to five seats they could net because of the redistricting measures.

8:27 Could, might, yeah.

8:28 Even that gain will likely be undone in the coming years, going into 2028. When Virginia is able to push forward its redistricting again, which they tried to do earlier, but because of a procedural error, it was shot down. So that that will also net Democrats a few more seats that will start to kind of even things out. And then we had this whole little fun redistricting for nothing.

8:52 Yeah, it's a real just a marker of how badly they have botched their their starting position going into this administration. just kind of a catastrophic series of political decisions. We'll see if any of that matters, but it really does highlight how pissed off people are.

9:11 Now, obviously, the Senate is kind of the big question here. Yeah. Will Democrats be able to actually take the Senate? Will they be able to control all of Congress, not just the House?

9:21 Yeah.

9:22 Currently, the Republicans have a 53-seat majority, plus a Fetterman. and the vice president who can vote. So that kind of really throws a wrench in all these numbers, the Fetterman factor and the Vance factor.

9:36 Yeah.

9:36 Democrats just have 45 seats plus two independents who caucus with the Democrats, like Bernie Sanders. So essentially, things actually sit at like 54 to 46, adjusting for independents and Fetterman. So Democrats really need a net gain of like four to five seats to be able to Have the Senate be a more of a competitive voter.

10:00 Know, voting arena.

10:01 Also, you know, considering J.D. Vance.

10:04 There are 35 Senate seats on the ballot next month. So Democrats will need to flip around four to five seats, like I said, and one of the seats Democrats have wanted to flip for a long time, and especially this year, is Maine. with susan collins one of our worst lawmakers yes and republica as i reported on ed a few few weeks ago republica did that great investigation into into military contracting corruption and bribery involving susan collins so union logger troy jackson is trying to unseat collins Right now, this race leans D or is a toss up. Morrist has Jackson up four points ahead of Collins among registered voters, but.

10:54 With a margin of error of 3.8%.

10:55 So that's essentially still almost within the margin of error. This is going to be a very close race, right? A margin of error like that. This is still basically a toss up. Other polling shows roughly the same results. Jackson up a few points, but within the margin of error. Per Morrist, among the Maine electorate, 57% think Collins will win.

11:20 That's not saying 57% want Collins to win, but they think that will happen, right? That's what they think is more likely. A survey from the Maine People's Resource Center found Jackson ahead among independent voters, 58% to 33% for Collins. The Maine People's Resource Center is a progressive-leaning institution. Obviously, this race in Maine has been a big shit show, to say the least. And since Jackson has taken over as the nominee, Democratic Party establishment consultants have really swooped into Maine and have been trying to keep Jackson on a tight leash. Jackson's campaign has not replicated the Platner-style intensive town hall strategy.

12:02 I think that would be a bad idea. It would be really obvious if he just tried to be Graham Platner without the scandal, right?

12:10 Yeah, let's try to be Graham Platner, but I think it is, the style of campaigning is very different. Yeah. Jackson's not as accessible to the electorate. Consultants have tried to keep him from doing Q & As at the events that he does end up doing. They've been dissuading him from talking about ICE and Israel and Palestine. Great.

12:31 So they really have been trying to keep him on a pretty tight leash. There's a story in New York Magazine a few weeks ago that kind of details how Democratic establishment consultants have been trying to lead the Jackson campaign that if people are interested in that specific topic, I recommend they check out. So this is one of the races that Democrats really do need to flip if they have a chance of winning the Senate. And it is, you know, theoretically possible, you know, he may be slightly ahead in the polls, but only very slightly. But I think, yeah, this is this is essentially a toss up. especially looking back at 2020 when the Democrat in that race also was, you know, a little bit ahead and Collins still ended

13:15 up walking away with it.

13:16 Yeah, I think they're I mean, they're they're both trying to avoid having another platner who gets like out of control of them and is saying shit that the DNC does not want to have to stand by. And I think they are also hoping that that Plattner's campaign at least did enough damage to Collins that she isn't going to be able to like pull out a win this time.

13:35 And maybe that'll be the case, you know, that might wind up being a play that works.

13:39 Definitely.

13:40 It's not a great position to have someone who is doing as well as Plattner had been doing get dropped out with a scandal that fucked up. Like that's a, that's a, that's not easy to handle.

13:51 Yes.

13:51 Especially mobilizing that many people who were already kind of disillusioned with politics, giving them that sort of hope and then having that hope be ripped away. And then those people who maybe, some of them who even still want to be politically engaged, the Jackson campaign is not letting them touch the campaign with a 10-foot pole, which you can maybe understand their reasons for. But there's a lot of grassroots, very working-class-oriented activists who want to be involved in some way that are not being tapped. And as strong as Plattner's campaign was, it was because it was built on the work that they were doing. Yeah.

14:25 Not just him as a person.

14:27 Yeah.

14:27 So those are sort of complicating factors in this race.

14:30 And you know what's a complicating factor in this podcast episode, Garrison?

14:34 The fact that we have to pivot to ads in order to pay the bills. We have to pivot to ads right now.

14:38 Yeah, yeah, that is a complicating factor in our lives. And we're back.

14:53 How do you feel about North Carolina, Robert? Of the Carolinas, definitely my favorite. That's so true, actually.

15:00 Easily the best of the Carolinas. Top 50% Carolina. Sorry to everyone in South Carolina. I did not apologize, South Carolina. You need to know that.

15:11 Well, North Carolina could also be one of the states that flip for the Dems. Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is facing former RNC Chair Michael Watley.

15:23 What a name.

15:24 Who is running to replace Republican Senator Tom Tillis.

15:28 Those are both silly names. Have some self-respect. God damn it.

15:32 This race is leaning Democrat. This is not a toss-up.

15:35 Yeah. Polls from late September have Cooper ahead 5 to 13 points.

15:40 Yeah, that's pretty good.

15:42 And last week, a Republican super PAC pulled $ 30 million of ad money out of the state to use in other races.

15:50 So.

15:51 That's a sign that at least even among some Republicans, they're kind of giving up on this. Roy Cooper is a pretty strong candidate for this state. I should say, as we're going through all of these sort of candidates, this is not, it could happen here, endorsing any candidate just because they.

16:07 Belong to one party or another.

16:09 Not our thing.

16:11 I'm just talking about this in terms of what the Democrats want in order to take back power and the sort of how these candidates relate to each state.

16:18 Roy Cooper.

16:19 is a relatively liked figure in North Carolina. That is reflected in the polling for this. His campaign is also helped by the fact he's not going up against an incumbent. He's not going up against someone who voters already are familiar with, already like, who they just want to keep in power. He's going up against a new guy, a former RNC chair. So this is one of those states where the Democrats will probably flip. You can kind of count this on the four to five states needed to flip.

16:47 This is the most kind of certain one.

16:49 There'd be a massive polling error if it goes the other way or some sort of fuckery.

16:54 And just a total misread of the situation on the ground. Now, one of the more interesting kind of surprises is Alaska, which could also flip for Democrats. The former Democratic congressman, Mary Peltola, is going up against sitting Senator Dan Sullivan. Paltola is definitely running more as, like, a centrist. Very pro-fossil fuels.

17:18 You're in Alaska.

17:19 Yeah.

17:20 Pro-gun, too. Pro-gun.

17:22 Her campaign slogan is Fish Family Freedom.

17:27 Yep.

17:28 That makes sense.

17:29 Not a terrible slogan for running in Alaska. Not bad for Alaska. And rather than attacking Republicans, a lot of her campaign messaging is focused on taking on, quote, D.C. You know, it's very much like Alaska versus D.C.

17:42 Yeah.

17:42 Yeah.

17:43 Corruption is a massive issue for the whole electorate. So that makes sense. Like that's, yeah, kind of the obvious play.

17:50 And really prioritizing Alaska as like its own special interest because it's so different from every other state. Yeah. part of Peltola's strategy is trying to, you know, is trying to attract certain Republicans, which is why she's not really going hard against Republicans per se, but attacking this sort of, like, D.C.

18:06 swamp establishment. That's her main strategy here. A New York Times-Siena poll from late September to early October has Peltola up seven points.

18:16 Yeah, that's a pretty solid lead. Alaska's been wavering the last couple of elections between blue and red. So this is not like a, A sea change.

18:27 Right.

18:28 This is kind of an incremental change in some of the the and obviously the disaster that is this administration has pushed things further along than I think it otherwise would be. But this is it's been moving in this direction a while.

18:40 Yeah.

18:40 And like Alaska hasn't had a Democratic senator in like almost 20 years. this would be a significant event if this happened.

18:47 Oh yeah, yeah, yeah. I didn't mean to say it wouldn't. I've just been like this, this pattern has been occurring since before like Trump too.

18:53 Right.

18:54 And obviously there's this general pattern of in the midterms, usually, especially the house, but sometimes the Senate as well, shifts to the opposition party. You know, this is like politics 101. This is very basic pattern. And what we're looking at is this, this could be even stronger this year than some years previously, probably not as strong as 2018, but, But taking back the Senate and the House would be huge, especially because of how far they have to go in the Senate in order to retake it. Yeah. Now, the race in Alaska, this definitely used to lean Republican, right?

19:25 This was not seen to be a very competitive race. But recently, this went to a toss-up, right? And now, some models even have it leaning Democrat. So this is one race where there's been a lot of movement.

19:37 And J.D.

19:38 Vance was dropped into Alaska to campaign for Sullivan last week. something that they may not have needed to do or thought they needed to do a few months ago.

19:49 But now... this is competitive enough that they're sending in the vice president. Will J.D.

19:53 Vance actually help Republicans win the state? That's certainly debatable.

19:58 I don't know if I would be putting J.D. in as my pen shitter.

20:01 That's the thing, right?

20:03 I don't know who I'd put in as my pen shitter right now in the Republican bench, but Vance would be the bottom of my list. Like, honestly, send in Fetterman. No, legitimately, yes. He'll do better for you.

20:17 In this instance.

20:18 Sending Fetterman to campaign for the Republicans would be, I think, probably a smarter move.

20:23 Yeah, you could convince him to do it. What a nightmare.

20:27 What a horrible situation.

20:30 It's it's things are really bad, buddy. Things are really bad.

20:35 I know when like we were getting shot at by federal agents in Portland, things were bad, but things are a lot darker. Yeah, well, I'm about to get maybe shot at by federal agents in like 20 minutes.

20:46 So, yeah, because they just shot a dude with an actual gun in New York. Yeah.

20:50 Time is a spiral.

20:52 Yeah.

20:53 Let's talk about Texas.

20:55 Sure.

20:56 Yeah, I'm excited to talk about Texas because this is the first time I get to be like a little optimistic about more than like two Texas elections, actually. So, yeah, I'm I'm excited.

21:09 Let's talk about Talafrico.

21:10 Talafrico.

21:14 In terms of the Senate, the big, big.

21:15 Question is Texas with James Talafrico going up against Kenny Pax, Ken Paxton.

21:21 K-Pax, as I like to call him. You probably didn't see that movie, Garrison. It's not good. No, no.

21:26 I did just see Out of Sight, the Steven Soderbergh movie.

21:29 I don't know if I've seen that one.

21:30 From like the 90s. It's like the proto Ocean's Eleven.

21:34 Okay.

21:35 It's the hottest I've ever seen George Clooney.

21:37 Oh, Cloon Tang.

21:38 Okay.

21:38 He plays like a serial bank robber.

21:41 That's a good role for him.

21:42 Who keeps going to jail, prison, then he breaks out.

21:46 And then it kind of cuts between a few different timelines as he gets into a sort of doomed romance with a federal marshal played by Jennifer Lopez.

21:54 Okay, I was going to say I've seen this movie and then... Well, no, I have seen this movie with J-Lo. Yeah, yeah, I have seen this movie. It's hard to tell because like the first half of that description is like 18 different George Clooney movies. Exactly.

22:06 He's like a bank robber. He keeps going to prison. No, especially like the late 90s, early 2000s. This is like his role. He had this like on lock. Yeah.

22:15 The hottest bank robber you've ever seen.

22:17 Yeah, people love a criminal.

22:19 Speaking of, Ken Paxton, not doing great in the polls.

22:26 Yeah. Marist and New York Times have Tallarico up six points as of late September, with a recent Fox News poll showing Tallarico at 51% to Paxton's 49%.

22:41 Not good for old Kay Pax.

22:43 No. There's also this big enthusiasm gap that the Fox News poll really focused on. Among MAGA Republicans, 64% say they're extremely interested in the midterms. But for non-MAGA Republicans, only 50% is extremely interested in the midterms. So that's almost like a 15% gap among Republicans for Republicans. how much they're invested in these midterms. And this difference does not exist on the Democratic side. The Fox News polling has Democrats broken down into two categories, similar to MAGA or non-MAGA. They have DSA Democrats and non-DSA Democrats. Which is funny on its face. DSA Democrats are at 68%, non-DSA is at 67%. So basically no gap. Jeez.

23:35 And I think this has less to do with Tallarico's specific characteristics as a candidate and everything to do with the fact that Ken Paxton is the literal Christian devil. Yes, he is Satan. And people want to see him beaten. Yes.

23:49 But I mean, these numbers are not just interesting because of the gap between MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans, but also MAGA Republicans are at 64% for enthusiasm versus Democrats are at 67, 68. So that's a few points ahead just for enthusiasm. against the mega kind of hardcore. And the other really worrying part of this for Republicans is that out of the percent that say that they will vote, mega is at 76%. Non-mega is at 65%. That's an 11% gap.

24:21 And similarly, this gap does not exist for the Democrats, DSA or otherwise.

24:27 That is really interesting. And it says a lot about MAGA Republicans that they have just completely given up any kind of like moral standards for their candidates.

24:37 Do not care.

24:38 Does not matter at all. In a lot of the country, Republicans and MAGA Republicans are synonyms, but that's not the case in a lot of Texas. Like Texas has a lot of Bush Republicans still.

24:48 Yeah. I mean, like those people still likely are going to vote for Trump in the presidential election.

24:53 Absolutely.

24:54 But oversimplifying their, like all of their politics to MAGA is, is a I think it's a sort of theoretical mistake.

25:01 It's a mistake. Those people are not. Some of them are. But because there's there's a chunk of Republicans that look like they're going to Tallarico, but it's not a huge chunk. No, it's more that some of them just aren't going to vote or are going to put in like a protest candidate. You know, I've read some interviews to that stance with like Republican voters who are on sort of the Bush Republican side of things being like, I'm just going to put in a protest vote or something, which in this instance is just as good as voting for Tallarico. in terms of stopping Paxton from winning again. Because the Republicans who have some degree of moral fiber left are also disgusted with Ken Paxton. He's gross.

25:35 On that topic, I don't know if you saw this, Ken Paxton's ex-wife, who is a Texas state senator, was tapped for an election ad where she does not even say her ex-husband's name, but just begs people to vote for the, quote, Republican ticket to stay on the team.

25:55 I want to play the ad.

25:56 Yeah. God, this is great.

25:58 I'm Texas Senator Angela Paxton. People have asked my thoughts about this election and turns out I have some.

26:04 Let's talk about the elephant in the room.

26:07 In a general election, it's not as much about the individual players on the team. It's about getting the whole team across the finish line. Either we hold every Republican seat or we hand the future of Texas to the other team. That's why I'm voting for the Republican ticket on November 3rd. Let's hold the line together.

26:25 Texas PAC is responsible for the content of this advertising.

26:28 Rousing. Won't even say his name.

26:30 Rousing message.

26:30 Crazy stuff. Wow. Wild stuff. Hold your nose and vote for my shitty ex, the psychopath.

26:39 Especially because she starts by saying, let's address the elephant in the room.

26:42 And then doesn't. Does not at all.

26:44 Does not address the elephant.

26:45 Can't bring herself to say his name. Oh my God, that's amazing.

26:50 It's one of the most incredible political ads I've ever seen. Almost as good as, we may as well play this one. This is technically a House ad. Unfortunately, we're going to drop it here in the Senate section. But in terms of talking about political ads, this is an ad running in Ohio in response to a series of anti-trans ads that the Republicans have been blasting in the airwaves.

27:13 Seen these ads? They're a complete lie. Records show not only is this woman actually from Texas, she didn't have any surgery as a minor. He protected men who abused young girls by voting in the Senate to block the release of the Epstein files. Maybe that's because Husted took $ 116, 000 from associates of Jeffrey Epstein, 10 times more than any other senator. John Husted should be ashamed.

27:41 I'm sure Brown and I approve this message.

27:43 It's that easy. It's that easy, folks.

27:45 Yeah.

27:46 Yeah.

27:47 Yeah.

27:48 The ads made for you, really.

27:50 If the Republicans want to make, quote unquote, protecting young girls the center of their politics. Yeah. They fucking handed you the silver platter. The Epstein's right there. Yeah.

28:00 It's frustrating because Tyler Rico has fucking recently made some kind of bows to the anti-trans kids in sports panic shit, which was very wishy-washy.

28:11 Wishy-washy, flippy-floppy, not standing firmly where he should be, certainly. No, and I don't think that's helping him, honestly. I think the primary thing helping him is that Ken Paxton is an abominable monster. He's awful. He's the devil. Like.

28:27 And to run against the devil, you simply have to not be the devil. I guess it's harder than that. Trump won.

28:32 And also offer people real things as well.

28:34 I think I'm not being fair to the campaign. Like he has run a much better campaign than that.

28:38 Well, I'm also just saying like in general, I think the sort of running as just not Trump. Yes.

28:43 That's not one as a strategy.

28:45 That's not enough. Tallarico has worked hard to portray himself as, other than being a Democrat, like a Texas Christian that Texans can, you know, find respectable, right?

28:58 Yeah. We'll talk a little bit more about Texas. But first, here are some ads.

29:15 And we're back. I did want to mention one more thing about the K-Pax campaign. Paxton's Senate campaign recently put out a series of missing posters demanding proof of life for James Tallarico.

29:28 Oh, yeah.

29:28 A little less than two weeks ago, he took sick with the flu. He got diagnosed on September 30th. And after that, he had to like attend he attended like a Hispanic business council meeting via video that had been scheduled to attend in person yeah he told attendees I'm running a fever and I'm at my most contagious right now and I guess I've been shaking too many hands on the campaign trail so I want to keep everybody safe he stated that if he passed his illness to somebody's grandmother or baby he couldn't live with himself Totally reasonable thing. But Paxton's campaign put out this like old West looking like wanted poster of him demanding proof of life because he's been absent 12 days from the campaign trail.

30:06 They're doing the fucking Mitch McConnell bullshit.

30:09 Yeah, it's it's nonsense. He's been making statements. He's just not. He's sick. That happens.

30:15 He's booked for a CNN town hall on October 14th. There's been a pretty bad illness going around. I think there's probably a few. There is a cold.

30:24 There is a COVID strain.

30:25 And he's young for politics, but he's also at the age in which flus and shit hit yard. He's not a baby.

30:31 I did see a clip from the president in the past few days talking about this. And he said that Paxton's hiding because he's been forced to eat meat when running. And so he's been vomiting up meat all the time. And that's why he's not.

30:44 what non-visible donald what what the fuck because trump's been trump just learned what veganism is yeah and he said he said he says it really funny and it's been like the main thing he's been attacking tala tala frico with is that the fact that he's like a.

31:00 Alleged vegan right because he's not a vegan yes like no even if you were a vegan if you wanted to win a major election in texas you would lie about that yeah that's almost more of a disqualifying factor in texas politics than being a democrat.

31:16 But yeah, that's been the main thing Trump's been trying to attack Talifrico for is this alleged vegan status. And the idea that Talifrico is having to fake being a meat eater and has gotten sick from eating meat and is thus vomiting.

31:31 And that's why he's out of the spotlight.

31:33 Yeah, of course. That's definitely it.

31:35 Simple, basic stuff. Politics 101.

31:38 Yeah, politics something or other. gubernatorial election is also going to be this year for Texas. And this is like the first time in a while that it's looked actually kind of competitive. Gina Hinojosa is running against Greg Abbott, who is right up there with Ken Paxton in terms of being an evil scumbag. Like, he is just a monster, although a much more popular monster than Ken Paxton is with voters. But even so, Hinojosa is giving him a run for his money. Right now, the real clear politics average trend has Abbott at 48.1% and Hinojosa at 46.4%.

32:19 But there are several polls that have Hinojosa ahead, including YouGov. The New York Times Siena poll has her up by three. Marist has her up by three. ReconMR at Siena has her up by four. Now, obviously, there are some like Telemundo has Abbott up by seven. Fox has Abbott up by five. And there are definitely more polls that have Abbott ahead. But this looks close enough that like it's being considered by a lot of people to be a toss up or close to a toss up.

32:46 It's competitive.

32:47 Yeah. Pull it off. I'm not saying I think that's the likeliest thing to happen here because this is still Texas. And I I just can't be that optimistic about the gubernatorial race. But I would love it if Gina could unseat Greg Abbott because he is just a fucking monster. And yeah, she's a monster. Running a really good campaign.

33:10 Yeah.

33:11 She's currently in the House of Representatives representing the 49th District.

33:14 The Texas House or the federal?

33:16 In the Texas House. She's a state legislator.

33:18 The Texas House.

33:19 Okay.

33:19 Got it.

33:20 Yeah.

33:20 And she worked for the AFL prior to that. She's been a lawyer for quite some time. She was part of the legal team that sued Tom DeLay. The Hinojos are like a prominent North Texas family. I went to school with one of her, I don't know if it was her kid or like a cousin or something, but like the Hinojos are like a prominent wealthy family in North Texas. So- It's very interesting that she's and I haven't enough of a deep dive. I think a lot of what's helping her is just the general unpopularity of the Republican Party right now. And I do kind of suspect that Greg Abbott is being dragged down a little bit by Ken Paxton, too, like that, just the general the overall trend. And also, like, I think he knows

34:01 is probably benefiting from some of the enthusiasm that Tallarico's campaign has helped to generate, too.

34:06 Right.

34:06 Obviously, she's also made a lot of really good moves on her own that have increased enthusiasm, but But in general, I think because Texas looks competitive in a way it really hasn't, it's benefiting probably both candidates a lot. Just that that is bringing more people out to volunteer. It's bringing more people out to donate. Just creating this impression that like this might be a winnable fight has done a lot.

34:28 Yeah.

34:28 So that's one to keep watch on. Again, I would say a gun to my head. Abbott's still probably going to eke out a victory, but I can't say definitely.

34:37 Right.

34:37 Right. Yeah, he does have that sort of incumbent advantage. And that's another factor with the Tallarico-Paxton thing. Paxton does not have that incumbent advantage. I think Corbyn would be a much harder candidate for Tallarico to beat.

34:51 This wouldn't be an election if Corbyn had won the primary.

34:53 That's why we were sort of softly excited when Paxton won. Because as dangerous as it is for Paxton to potentially be in the Senate, he has a much bigger attack potential.

35:05 Attack radius or.

35:06 Attack surface than Cornyn does. Another one of these kind of long shots, actually, I would say the biggest long shot for a flip is in Florida with progressive Democrat Angie Nixon running against Ashley Moody, who took Rubio's seat. The best poll for Nixon as of a few days ago is by Florida Politics. And according to them, the race is at a tie, 45%. But a recent poll from Stetson University has Moody leading 51 to 40, so 11 points. A YouGov poll from late September to early October has Moody five points ahead, with 5% of likely voters still undecided. Though, actually, as of just a few hours ago, as of recording, we're recording this on Thursday night, Florida Politics did another poll, which shows Moody at 47%

35:59 and Angie Nixon at 45%.

36:03 Within margin of error.

36:05 So a slight difference from the last poll that had them tied. This is one of those races that the Democrats, as the DNC, is not actually expecting Nixon to win. They're not really pumping much money in, or really any money in. They're not helping. All of this is the result of just Nixon being a really good politician. The fact that the race is this close.

36:29 Mm-hmm.

36:30 And Nixon's a sort of sleeper candidate. I was not familiar with Nixon until the primary. Since then, I've watched videos of her working in the state house from these past few years and then campaign appearances.

36:43 She is great. She is really good.

36:46 A really clear communicator of working class issues, issues impacting the black community in Florida. Florida's a state we often reduce to kind of the worst of the worst people. But there's a lot of good people people in Florida as well. They just haven't been represented in politics for almost as long as I've been alive. Yeah.

37:07 Yeah. I mean, it gets forgotten, but there's like a reason why the 2000 election hinged on Florida. And it was because it was really close.

37:15 And I'm really interested to see what the results of this race is, because this will indicate kind of how much Trump is hurting the Republicans if it's like a really, really close race, if the results are really close. And it will also point to Nixon's strength as a candidate, and I'm interested to watch what she does after this election, whether or not she wins. Now, of course, there's the other close race, which is in Michigan, which currently leans Democrat with Abdul El-Sayed on average, polling about 3% ahead of former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers. A Mars poll from late September has El-Sayed at 51 to Rogers 44, a seven point lead. That's El-Sayed's most favorable poll. A New York Times Siena poll from mid-September shows El Cid up

37:58 five points. A Fox poll has him up one point. If Abdul wins, Dems could hold on to this seat, strengthening their chances of controlling the Senate, but this would not be a flip. So this is something that they really need to hold on to in order to have a chance, but this will not go towards the sort of four to five seats they need in order to flip.

38:18 Before we close, I do want to just mention a few of the sort of underlying factors that could be influencing this election. One of the big ones just is Trump and how much everyone hates him. He has a 36% approval rating, which is the lowest pre-midterm approval rating in 50 years.

38:36 Yeah, that makes sense.

38:38 Not good. Not great for the Republicans. Not what you'd want, yeah. Not what you would want.

38:43 And remember when I was talking about the enthusiasm gap that the Fox poll was showing? The latest KFF health tracking poll, it's from the organization formerly known as Kaiser Family Foundation. They found a very large enthusiasm gap between parties in their last poll, with Democratic voters much more likely than Republican voters to say they're, quote, more motivated to vote this year.

39:07 Way more than usual.

39:08 It's 63% to 38%.

39:09 That's a huge gap. The cost of health care and gas.

39:17 Thai as voters top affordability worries. A quarter of respondents said that they are very worried about affording each ahead of food, utilities and housing. So 25% said they were very worried. about affording health care. 25% said they're very worried about affording gas. So that's the tie. It's 50% of the concern.

39:39 It's those two.

39:41 The Democratic Party has a clear edge over the Republican Party on who voters trust to handle many top issues in the election, including cost of health care. 42% of respondents trust the Democrats more on these issues. For cost of living, 39% of respondents trust Democrats more, going to 25% for the Republicans. And the cost of living was the top issue for both Democrat and independent voters, while Republican voters wanted candidates to discuss, quote, fraud. That's the big issue for Republicans right now.

40:14 This is, you know, J.D.

40:15 Vance's task force, the post kind of doge thing. is they're really obsessed with this idea of fraud and not really the type of fraud that Robert or I would talk about. I think everyone's pretty familiar with how much we're all being ripped off all the time. Scam culture is huge. Corporate fraud.

40:35 The only culture.

40:37 It's everything, right? And that's not what Republicans are interested in. They are wanting to kick people off public benefits, right? That's the type of fraud that they are mostly interested in. To close, the most interesting part about this KFF poll, though, is the numbers around Medicare for All. Quote, two-thirds of the public, 66%, said they favor Medicare for All, the highest share KFF has recorded since it began polling the idea in 2016. And, this is the really crazy part, quote, about half, 52%, said they would favor Medicare for All if it eliminated private health insurance companies, while 47% oppose.

41:17 That is a huge change from like five years ago. This has been the biggest kind of protest against Medicare for All is the idea that it would take away your private health care. When respondents get told this in polling, historically, we've seen support for Medicare for All take a big dip. This is the first time a majority of respondents have said they would still support Medicare for All if it took away private health care. To quote KFF, quote, This marks a departure from when KFF last asked this question in October 2020, when the prospect of eliminating private health insurance companies led to lower support for Medicare for All at just 37%. So this is a huge thing. And I would be remiss to mention, you know, most of

41:59 these candidates we're talking about in the Senate, the Democratic ones, you know, Troy Jackson, Angie Nixon, Abdul, Al-Said, they are running on Medicare for all. This has become a big resurgent topic, this election. The cost of healthcare is a big topic in these midterms. And rather than doing this sort of Pete Buttigieg style, Medicare for all who want it, you know, just kind of vaguely talking about having a public option, right? These candidates are being a bit more strict about Medicare for all as like an actual policy and as a policy guarantee. I think Abdul's policy has some slight differences where it does not completely eliminate private healthcare, but it says that private healthcare should become redundant and

42:45 still has a focus on a universal single payer system, which is much closer to the Bernie Sanders version than the sort of like half-assed versions that we've seen from other progressive candidates, you know, running for president like six years ago. So something that, you know, maybe two or three years ago, I felt like it's kind of like a political bygone. This focus on Medicare for all is definitely coming back in a big way. And people are not nearly as scared of the prospect of them not having private insurance because private insurance sucks. Yeah, it's gotten even worse. We're what, like two years after the Mangione assassination, things still suck. Everyone still hates healthcare companies.

43:26 Yeah, only hate them more as time goes on.

43:30 So, yeah, that is the kind of rough overview of the issues affecting the midterms and where the polling stands now just a few weeks away from November.

43:39 I want to say third. Let's see if I'm right. I am right.

43:42 Boom. We'll probably do a few more polling updates on executive disorder as we get closer to to Election Day.

43:49 Absolutely.

43:50 But yeah, that's that's all for me here.

43:51 Yeah.

43:53 Remember, guys, do what the IRGC would want you to do. Register to vote.

43:59 We're not telling you to vote.

44:00 No, the Iranian government. We're not. Good stuff.

44:12 It Could Happen Here is a production of Cool Zone Media. For more podcasts from Cool Zone Media, visit our website, coolzonemedia.com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can now find sources for It Could Happen Here listed directly in episode descriptions.

44:29 Thanks for listening.