We Can't Help Saudi Arabia | Ask the Professor

0:03 Hi, this is John Meersheimer, and I'm here today to answer a question from a channel member. It comes from Sam Baker, 7691. And Sam asked me, how do you explain the apparent shortcomings in U.S. support for providing Saudi Arabia with the air defense needed to counter missile and armed drone attacks, obviously from the Houthis, despite the strategic partnership between the two countries?

0:43 Well, it's very important to understand that the United States and Saudi Arabia do have a close strategic relationship. And the United States has provided the Saudis with almost all of the weaponry they want. And you want to remember that the Saudis are incredibly rich, and they have the wherewithal to afford America's sophisticated weaponry.

1:18 So this is a close relationship where the Saudis have been buying what they thought and what the United States thought was sufficient defensive weaponry to protect Saudi Arabia against the kind of attacks that are now taking place from the Houthis. And by the way, you want to remember that since the war against Iran started on February 28th, the Iranians have on occasion attacked Saudi Arabia as well.

1:54 Now, it's very important to emphasize here that before the war started on February 28th, that's the war uh with Iran, and before the war started with the Houthis, that was on July 13th, it was widely believed that the United States, working with the Saudis, could provide security, could provide protection for Saudi Arabia.

2:24 But it didn't work out that way, which is what prompted Sam to ask the question. But the point that I'm trying to make here, it's not because we don't have a close relationship, it's not because the United States let down the ball or because the Saudi didn't, Saudis didn't have sufficient money to buy the appropriate defensive systems.

2:43 There's a general problem here, a general problem, and the Saudi case is just one manifestation of that problem. And that is that in this day and age, it is very difficult to build defenses that can knock down the majority of incoming drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles that adversaries fire at countries like Saudi Arabia.

3:11 And just to illustrate this, let's talk about Israel. Nobody would deny that the United States has an incredibly close relationship with Israel. And Israel pretty much gets all the weaponry it wants. Now, if you go back to the 12-day war in June of 2025, this is the war between Israel and the United States on one side and Iran on the other side.

3:41 It ran from 13 June to 25 June. During that 12-day war, large numbers of Iranian ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles got through Israel's defenses. And one of the principal reasons that the war ended after 12 days is because the United States and Israel were running out of defensive missiles that could be used to protect Israel.

4:14 And moreover, putting aside the fact that they were running out of defensive missiles to protect Israel in the 12-day war, the fact is that even when they had sufficient missiles to fire at the incoming ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones from Iran, many of them were still getting through.

4:34 And great damage was done to Israel. Then, fast forward to the war that's now ongoing, which started on February 28th, there was a 40-day bombing campaign between February 28th and April 8th. And the United States and Israel pounded Iran. And Iran retaliated by striking Israel over the course of those 40 days on numerous occasions, with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones.

5:06 And the fact is that many of those missiles coming from Iran, many of those drones coming from Iran got through. The Israelis were incapable, even with an abundant amount of help from the United States. The United States was deeply involved in trying to help Israel protect itself, both in the 12-day war back in June 2025 and in the ongoing war now.

5:34 And here we're talking especially about the bombing campaign, the 40-day bombing campaign from February 28th to April 8th. But the fact is that the Israelis and the Americans together could not protect Israel in the same way that the Saudis can't protect Saudi Arabia. One just final example of this general problem has to do with Ukraine.

6:03 The Ukrainians have run out of patriot missiles and defensive missiles more generally for protecting themselves against Russian missile attacks and Russian drone attacks. What you see happening to Ukraine is not altogether that different than what's happening to Saudi Arabia today and what has happened to Israel, both in the 12-day war and the 40-day bombing campaign that started the present war.

6:34 So we have a fundamental problem here, which is that the offensive missiles can overwhelm the defensive missiles. And there's really no way of fixing that problem. And it's not simply that the offensive missiles can overwhelm the defensive missiles. If you look at the cost exchange ratio, it definitely favors the offender.

7:04 It's much cheaper for Iran or for the Houthis to build offensive missiles than it is for the Israelis, the Saudis, and the United States, especially to build defensive missiles like Patriots, PAC-3s, as we say. The cost exchange ratio favors the offender. And furthermore, even when the defender has lots of Patriot missiles, many of the attacking ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones get through.

7:41 And this is what you see happening in Saudi Arabia. Now, the question is, what's the future look like here? I would note that a number of people believe that the United States is not going to be able to rebuild its military bases in the Persian Gulf for the simple reason it will not be able to defend those bases, because the Iranians will have a huge inventory of increasingly sophisticated ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones that the United States will not be able to defend against.

8:20 To put it in slightly different terms, not only will the United States not be able to defend any bases it might rebuild in the Persian Gulf region, it's also not going to be able to defend its Persian Gulf allies in any meaningful way moving forward. Because as I've tried to make clear, the offensive missiles have a significant advantage over the defensive missiles.

8:48 And the same, of course, is true with regard to drones. So my bottom line in my response to Sam is that the United States is not able to protect Saudi Arabia, not because it doesn't have the will to do so, or not because relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States have gone south. The United States simply doesn't have the capability because the United States and the Saudis are on the defense.

9:21 And when you're up against an adversary that has lots of very powerful and sophisticated ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, uh that offender is going to prevail uh in a conflict. So that's the bottom line here. Uh that concludes my response to Sam's question, and I look forward to answering another question from a channel member down the road.

9:51 Thank you.