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Macro Minutes - RBC Capital Markets macro and market strategy series – explores the latest financial market and economic developments. Listen today to hear high conviction insights from RBC’s desk strategists and research analysts.
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Votes and Volatility
Lula shocked Brazil – BRL is still reeling. Israel's votes are in – no winner yet. South Africa passed the budget test – local elections are next. And year-end seasonality? Right around the corner. Participants: • Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strat
Canadian Equity Compass
Interesting factoid - the Canadian stock market has outperformed the S&P and Nasdaq over the last year and has similar performance YTD. Who would have thought, without the AI driver and with tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. Listen to t
Around the world in 15 minutes
A broad tour of global FX markets spanning Asia, G10, and LatAm, covering key currency trades, positioning, and central bank divergence. The discussion highlights major risks into year-end, including an AI-trade pullback, China trade tensio
Wake up call
There has been a substantial widening of spreads in the European bond markets. While the epicentre is in the French bond market, it seems to have morphed from a French idiosyncratic problem to a broader one, a problem that comes on top of a
Dumpster fire
Bond yields have spiked globally led by an inter-related combination of oil prices and re-pricing of central bank terminal rates. Momentum and investors exiting long exposure has added fuel to the fire. To put it in context, the one-month i
EM under pressure: when resilience runs out
For most of 2026, Emerging Market assets held their ground against a wall of external headwinds — but September may mark the moment that resilience finally cracks. A surprise Fed hike, relentless UST repricing, and a USD trading near multi-
Time is ticking!
The ECB hiked rates a second time in this cycle last week and did not suggest that the 2.50% they previously flagged as top end of neutral will be a key line in the sand. In contrast, the BoE did not hike this week, but left the door wide o
What comes next for European markets?
In this Partner of Choice special episode, we look at how change across European markets is creating new opportunities for resilient growth and how RBC is strengthening its capabilities in response, across our people, products, and technolo
Guarded exuberance in EM FX
EM FX has enjoyed a lift from a constructive macro backdrop, with growth resilient and inflation generally under control. We retain a bullish bias (long KRW, MYR, BRL) but caution against being exposed to higher energy prices. We also maint
Back to school
As summer ends, financial markets face a crucial semester ahead. The next Fed meeting looms large and the path to hikes runs squarely through inflation, with or without, Warsh’s blessing. Until there is sustained progress on price pressures
Yellow Card for Carry
The summer of soccer is over—and geopolitics and the Fed just took the pitch. Our EM strategists break down why they have locked in gains, where the Brazilian real goes from here, the South African rand's new vulnerability, and why the Kore
Holding pattern
With the ECB keeping rates on hold, and the BOE and Fed expected to do the same, Blake and George explore what's really driving central bank decisions. From energy market pressures in Europe to an unexpectedly hawkish Fed backdrop, discover
Rate hike fever crosses the Tasman Sea
In this all-Antipodean edition of Macro Minutes, Robert Thompson and Mary Jo Vergara discuss the RBNZ hiking the OCR rates for the first time in three years with more to come, in contrast to the RBA, which is stepping back into the shadows
Stall speed, holding pattern
The Canadian economy is at stall speed and the BoC is in a holding pattern. There has been no GDP growth and anemic employment gains over the last year – amid the dual forces of a population and trade shock. The consumer has actually been q
The summer of soccer
In this month's Emerging Markets edition, Luis Estrada is joined by Abbas Keshvani and Dasha Parkhomenko to analyze recent developments across emerging markets. The discussion covers the changing direction of the US dollar, preferred trades
We need to talk about Kevin!
In this special edition of Macro Minutes, Peter Schaffrik is joined by Blake Gwinn to dissect the first FOMC meeting under the new chairman Warsh. Blake shares his views on the task forces set up, the market reaction to the change in the SE
Going for a hike!
Straight after the ECB’s first rate increase in quite a few years, Cathal Kennedy and Peter Schaffrik discuss the ECB’s rate hike, the set of new forecast and the likely path going forward. Peter and Cathal also discuss next week’s BoE meet
Investment strategy through the ‘up crash’ and beyond
Recorded at the Global Energy, Power, and Infrastructure Conference in New York, this special edition brings a real-time read on where markets stand. Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, joined Amy Wu Silverman and Callie Simpkins
Limbo of war
There are good reasons to wait for confirmation of a deal before loading up on risk. But while we wait, we recommend being oil-neutral via RV strategies between energy importers. In a post-war world, we see opportunities to turn bullish on
Anarchy in the UK?
Sterling markets have had a rough ride over the last few weeks. In part this is against the backdrop of the oil price shock, but it is also due to the domestic political uncertainty that has once again come to the fore. In this episode, Pet
Positivity isn’t always naivete
Equity markets keep hitting all-time highs. Rates markets are telling a more cautious story. So which one has it right? In this episode, we examine the complacency narrative through both an equity and rates lens, unpacking whether risk asse
Searching for EM opportunities
Uncertainty on the path of the Iran conflict remains. The second and third order effects for the global economy have yet to be seen, but FX markets are taking an optimistic view on the outcome of the conflict. In this episode, we look at ho
To hike, or not, that is the question
Market pricing for central bank policy rates has been on wild ride. Front-end yield spiked to extreme levels during the initial phase of the oil shock. They are lower now but in some countries painting a very different picture than before t
Private Credit - a public affair?
In this European episode of Macro Minutes, Peter is joined by Marc Sanchez who is RBC’s Head of European Financials Sector Strategy and recently wrote a detailed note about the private credit market and the potential pitfalls. Marc and Pete
Weakest links!
In this episode, we examine how the Middle East conflict transmits economic shocks beyond energy markets, focusing on supply chain disruptions in Asia-Pacific and global inflationary pressures. Join us when we explore why commodity exporter
Stress Testing EMFX for Oil
The episode examines the Iran conflict through an emerging markets lens, analyzing recent developments and exploring two primary scenarios that could unfold in the coming weeks. The first scenario envisions rapid de-escalation that would al
Deja vu
In this European edition of Macro Minutes, we discuss the rise in energy prices in the wake of the Middle East conflict brings back painful memories of the 2022 energy shock for Europe. We dissect what is similar and what is different, quan
A New Circularity
Concerns over the spending and investment circularity of the AI Ecosystem between chip makers, hyperscalers and data centers has shifted to a New Circularity, driving credit spreads wider. The New Circularity was initiated by new AI apps hi
SCOTUS ruling EM-positive, risks remain
The US Tariff framework is changing. China is preparing for its National People’s Congress. Latin America is entering a period of political volatility. We give our take on the current EM environment. Participants: • Richard Cochinos (Desk S
Diversify the Buy
Over the past 6-12 months Treasury yields are rangebound, gold surged, but the USD has weakened. Despite the de-dollarization narrative, investors have continued to accumulate USD denominated assets, but with a cautious bias (i.e. hedging).
