The Fed Better Have AI's Back Or There Will Be Problems | Dan Krausz on “Liquidity Trap Door” In AI Infrastructure and Why Policymakers Are Inclined to Support Financial Conditions

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Dan Kraus of Blue Door Asset Management argues that the AI sell-off isn’t about AI fundamentals but about liquidity. As the buildout shifted from hyperscaler cash to market financing, it began competing with Treasuries for capital, so weaker credits like CoreWeave get hit first when liquidity tightens. In his words, “when liquidity weakens, time frames shorten”: concerns that were 18 months out suddenly get priced today. He explains why he expects policymakers to put “trampolines” under the trapdoor. With Bessent calling the AI race crucial and Warsh calling AI disinflationary, hiking rates to kill the buildout would be inconsistent, and some major investors have even floated a “Fannie Mae for AI.” We break down Warsh’s October press conference, why it matters that he didn’t call the economy overheating the way Greenspan did in 1999, and why Dan expects growth and the consumer to slow in 2027. Dan also explains why the rally in AI-disrupted stocks looks like a short squeeze rather than a comeback, why AI may become table stakes rather than a lasting margin boost, and the four warning signs that deficits have turned negative for equities (none are flashing yet).

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