NFL Pro Quarterly Report

Welcome to the NFL pros Q1 quarterly report. Thank you for listening on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you guys get your podcasts. Be sure to follow and subscribe to the show.

Welcome to the opening bell of NFL pro here on NFL media. I'm Trevor Sycamore. That's Brett Coleman.

That's a stock exchange intro for me. But the reason why we're doing the stock exchange intro is because it's time for the quarterly report around the NFL, baby. We're doing a little stock watch, a little stock update on how these teams and players have done so far this season.

We're mainly going to be looking at teams that either beat or.

Didn't beat expectations that we had for them early in the season. We're going to take a look at some takes, Brett, that we had in the preseason episode that we already have to revisit for good.

Not so good reasons.

We're kind of going to identify some really good assets and liabilities around the NFL. We're going to have a lot of fun here, just really wrapping up what we've seen through four weeks of the season.

Brett, how you doing, my friend? I got a lot of stuff wrong this summer. I don't know about you, but it feels like the first four weeks of this season, I have been more wrong than ever. I'm not afraid to admit that, but this has been a wacky first month.

The people love when we're wrong, of course. I hope that they come to this show and our expertise for when we're right, but they love for us to remind ourselves of when we were wrong. And, you know, I think that I had some good takes going into the preseason.

But there's two specifically.

That I do have to address here on the show, which, Brett, I think is a great way to intro our first segment, which is the earnings report here four weeks into the 2026 NFL season. Let's take a look at some teams that either beat expectations or fell short of the expectations that we had for them. Let's start with the teams that have beaten expectations. Let's start on a good note.

We've got four teams that we want to take a look at, and the first one that I want to look at is the Minnesota Vikings. Now, with all these teams we'll discuss here, we'll talk about and identify why they have beaten expectations, and then we'll give you a little bit of a buy or sell. Hey, are we buying them beating or falling short of expectations, or are we selling?

Do we think that it's going to go a different direction?

And he's sacked by Dallas Turner.

The Minnesota Vikings are sitting here at 4-0. And this is my first admission of fault. I said that Kyler Murray was in for a career year. I said that if he was fully healthy, we were going to see some fireworks here for Kyler Murray. And the Vikings are 4-0 on the season. But Kyler is not the main catalyst as to why that is the case.

Brett, I just want to ask you.

You're buying or selling the Vikings beating expectations and being 4-0 here.

I think this is the weirdest one we'll talk about in this section because in a way they've met expectations. Because we knew going into the season, hey, this was a nine-win football team last year with bad quarterback play. What happens if they get good quarterback play? And we thought Kyler Murray was going to give them good quarterback play.

And they're undefeated, even without Kyler playing for all these games. And yet it doesn't feel that way. So they met expectations in terms of the win loss column. They have not met expectations in terms of just how they look like using our eyeballs and the eye test.

Like this is not a good offense using the next gen eyeballs.

I mean, sometimes that's really all it takes. Like you don't you don't necessarily need a lot of data to look at a Vikings game and be like, they can't score. Like, Will Reichardt might be MVP front-runner at this point. Customary 5-for-5 on field goals, 31 straight. Will Reichardt! This is a team that can't stretch the field. They didn't have a single deep pass attempt last week without Justin Jefferson because when he's gone, they just don't have any ability to be explosive in the passing game. They're not good after the catch either. Fourth fewest yards after catch this year.

They're down half their offensive line at this point. Donovan Jackson's going to miss the year. Darryl Saw's in concussion protocol. You know, the running backs aren't necessarily dynamic either. The only reason they have, I guess, met expectations is because their defense is incredible. But the offense can't do anything.

So for me, it's an obvious sell because this is a very one-dimensional team that is hanging on by a thread and Maybe it's a hold, I guess you could say, because there's a possibility Kyler gets better, but are you really confident in that at this point? It's possible, but I look at the rot at the core of this offense, and I don't feel confident in that. So for now, sell.

Maybe I'll buy back in later, but I... I don't feel good about it, especially compared to Chicago in their own division.

Yeah, I'm with you.

I'm selling the current version of what the Vikings are, meaning, hey, they're 4-0 in this current state. Do I think that that sustains? No. I mean, when you look at the quarterback situation in Kyler Murray, yeah, 45.3% win probability added. That's one of the lowest marks in the league. 13% 0.4 sack.

Percentage for him.

It's also one of the lower marks in the league. I just don't think he sees what he's trusting. Now, I love what the defense is doing, but Brett, let's be honest. I mean, their 32.8% success rate allowed, that's the most in the league by 5%. And then when you look at their negative 55.7 total EPA allowed, that's the best by almost seven. So I want to give them their praise for how good they've been playing, but you can't sustain that for an entire season.

So I'm also selling it. Let's go to the 49ers next.

You buying or selling where the 49ers are beating expectations. I think they were the forgotten team in the quote unquote best division in football.

I'm buying. I mean, I don't feel great about it just because I'm expecting the injuries to happen for this team. They've honestly already kind of happened for this team. They've never really gotten healthier as a season has gone on. But I'm still buying because what I see on the field, specifically out of Purdy and Shanahan, is just impossible to ignore.

He is playing at an MVP level. I guess it's either him or Will Reichardt at this point. That was all Brock Purdy. Even with all of the receiver injuries and his top tight end is coming off an Achilles injury and somehow already hitting 20 miles per hour. I mean, God forbid a white guy has a little bit of motion.

I am buying them for now. I understand everything. This team, they tend to not get healthier as the year goes on, and they've already taken on some injuries. But Purdy and Shanahan have been so dominant this year that it's impossible to ignore. And I think if they get over the Mike McDonald hump, really the sky is the limit for this team because I think Seattle is kind of the main thing that's standing in their way. If you go back to the division round last year, Purdy ran 833 yards during that game just because of how much he had to scramble. and get away from pressure. JSN ran 728 yards in that game. CMC ran 712 yards in that game. You have a quarterback outdoing the two most prominent skill position players on the field by over a

hundred yards. That is how much pressure.

Are you sure the tracking chip wasn't, you know, like Purdy was on the sideline on the bike, you know, and they were just like counting that as the yards on the field.

Are you sure?

Cause that's a crazy number.

Again, just using our eyeballs, watching that game, you could have told me it was more. That's how much he was running. I don't know if he actually had more than five clean pockets that entire game. It was, it was awful. And even though the Niners are banged up right now, it's still nowhere near how banged up they were at the end of last season. So they do have a better shot of winning this game. Hell, we've seen a healthier 49ers team beat the Mike McDonald Seattle Seahawks before. They did it early last season.

Look, if we go back to the preseason again, I said that this team would be missing the playoffs. A lot of uncertainty there. with that roster overall, and then you mount the injuries that they were kind of going through as well. I thought this team in this division were going to miss the playoffs, and yet here I am.

They're 4-0.

I have to buy how they are 4-0 because a lot of what I talked about, some of the run defense inefficiencies, some of the young guys having to get in there and play, the injuries that they are going through, all of that is still true with the Niners.

And yet Brock Purdy is playing like an MVP.

So as long as Brock Purdy plays like this, very clearly, even when they go against better opponents, I think you're going to be all right. So I'm buying the 49ers and where they are right now, because how do you doubt a quarterback who's playing as good as Brock Purdy? What about the Cleveland Browns here? Certainly above what a lot of people had as their expectations a quarter of the way through the season. You're buying or selling the Browns at the top of the division.

I might regret this, but I'm buying it. All right, baby, let's go. It's really about the defense. It really is. Not that the offense has been horrible, but the defense, I think, is playing above expectations in a post-Miles Garrett world, right? They are 50% man coverage rate, which is the highest in the NFL. Even by Brown standards, that's high. This is a team that likes to play a lot of man coverage. They're just doing it more than ever right now.

Their pressure rate on defense is 40.4%. That is sixth best. Even without Myles Garrett, Jared Versus played really well for them. Mason Graham played really well for them before he got injured, but he'll be back in a couple weeks. Their yak per reception on offense, that's really what's kept them afloat on the other side of the ball. 6.6 yards after catch per reception. That is sixth best in the NFL.

If you take a top 10 defense in terms of points allowed, Since week two, the Jacksonville game, they got absolutely shelled. But since week two, they've been a top 10 defense, plus a mostly official. offense that's really good at getting yards after the catch. This is a relatively complete team, and they played a lot of good football.

I'm going to.

I'll be the hater and I'm going to sell sort of where the Browns are right now. I don't want to take anything away from a team that hasn't had success in a long time. But Brett, the fact of the matter is their offense has a 39.9% rookie snap share, which is the highest ever.

In the NFL.

I think these young guys are playing well to start, which is great to see, but I think once defenses now have some tape on a lot of these players, they're going to figure out how to neutralize them a little bit more. It might not be an instant fix for them to, okay, they changed what they're doing against me.

Now I'm going to change the sort of what's next, this evolution. Normally it takes a little bit more time than that.

Inside the 40, the 30, the crowd loving it.

I think the rest of the division is going to continue to play really well as well, especially if the rest of the division can't stay healthy. You know, Lamar's health is sort of an issue short term. But I'm going to sell the Browns, although it is nice, obviously, to see them beat expectations to start the year. The last one that we're talking about, the team that beat expectations at 3-1 here, almost 4-0, is the Las Vegas Raiders.

We buying or selling the Raiders and how they've beaten expectations this year?

I'm buying it. It's a complete team. If you're looking at offensive EPA per play, they are 11th best in the NFL so far this year. Defensive EPA per play allowed, they are 6th best in the NFL this year. Even special teams, their average starting field position, 36.5 yard line. That is awesome. They're getting it from all three phases so far this year. Were it not for the fumble on the kickoff return against Kansas City, I bet their special teams EPA per play would be up there as well. But, you know, one play can swing a lot of things.

I like this team. The fact that they fought back the way they did after that two touchdown flurry in 19 seconds versus the Chiefs, that to me showed a lot of heart. I do not see them as a fraudulent 3-0. I see them as a formidable 3-1. Yeah, I'm with you.

I would have repeated exactly what you said as reasons to believe in this team.

And we've talked about it over the last couple of weeks.

It feels real. It doesn't feel like fool's gold. It feels like they've got the right coaches in there. The players are playing the way that they need to, not just in a way that's fluky, in a way that's consistent, to be honest with you. And I think that starts with Kirk Cousins. How Kirk Cousins is playing at the quarterback position is also why I'm buying this for the Las Vegas Raiders. His 48.0 success rate this season is the highest that he has had since 2020. He's turning the clock back, baby. 0.16 EPA per dropback. That's his most in a season since 2016. And Brett, a lot of that confidence that Kirk Cousins is playing with. Remember I said that it was his highest success rate since 2020. Well,

guess who one of his coaches, his quarterback coach and then offensive coordinator was with the Minnesota Vikings was during that season.

Oh, it was Clint Kubiak. So clearly... There's a.

Lot of great chemistry there, and I think that that's going to keep rolling. Now let's talk about teams that have not met expectations here in our quarterly report. And we start with the Los Angeles Rams. Now the win over the Eagles puts them at 2-2, so it's not all doom and gloom. The sky is not falling the way that it was the previous two weeks with the Rams.

But are you buying the Rams for where they are right now, given that they did not hit expectations a quarter of the way through the season?

Or are you selling this team?

What do you think? Yeah, I'm buying it. I understand there were hiccups. The Australia thing, even Sean McVay said that he did not handle it well. They got Miles Garrett coming back eventually. Aaron Donald still getting back into the swing of things. Stafford, I don't believe, is just going to keep throwing the worst pick you've ever seen week after week. That's just not Matthew Stafford. So they'll be fine. Their talent is kind of overwhelming where eventually, once it all starts moving in the same direction... You know, it's like a battleship. It turns slowly, but it's hard to stop once it gets going.

It is still a battleship. And I agree with you. I'm going to buy this team as well, especially now that they are sitting here at 2-2. If they can get a win over the Buffalo Bills, I think that really changes things going into a very favorable.

Part of their schedule over the five weeks that follow.

Devontae brings it in over the shoulder.

I think the main reason why I'm buying is because, you know, with Puka Nakua back out there, you saw what he was able to do, even as a contested catch guy, where I've complained that there's just no easy throws in this offense. When you have a player like that, and when you have Devontae Adams as well, sometimes that's all the difference that you need when you have a quarterback like Matthew Stafford. He was playing a little bit better.

And I think the way that the Rams came back against the Eagles... That was reminiscent of what it was the previous season. So I wonder if that really is, you know, the belief for the guys in the locker room, like, okay, it started slow, time to lock in.

We got to remember who we are here.

And all of a sudden, for the first time, really all day, the Rams offense has life.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are sitting here at 0-4. You're buying or selling this team that some people had as the division favorites for the NFC South, myself included.

So I'm selling them, but let's be honest, the people do not care about my opinion on this. They care about yours. What you doing, Trev?

Well, I'm also selling, brother.

Man, I just don't really love anything that I'm seeing out of Tampa right now. It feels like their star players aren't playing up to their potential. the role players aren't playing as well as they need to in a complimentary way, and some of the young guys and new players on the team aren't gelling the way that they need to. You throw in the fact that their starting quarterback in Baker Mayfield is down, but even beyond that, Brett, I think the big reason why I'm selling right now is not only because of some new pieces on defense that I think are just going to naturally have it be up and down throughout the entire season, specifically up front, but also on offense. it just doesn't feel like there's

a real threat. I like Emeka Buka. I like Chris Godwin. I like Bucky Irving. I like these players, but it just doesn't feel like defenses fear them. And they certainly don't fear the way that the Bucks are playing right now because their 8.4% explosive rate on offense, that's second lowest in the NFL.

Baker is smacked by Joshua Metellus.

The game plan that Zach Robinson has had over the last four weeks has been so conservative. It's basically been hey, we want to get the ball in our playmakers' hands and let them go make plays. Sure, really nice in theory, but Tampa doesn't really have those yards after catch type of players. So Bucky's not forcing the missed tackles at the rate that he was his rookie season. And the receivers, they're just not really, it's not really their game. They're more of win down the field, be contested catch players, find the soft spots, be good route runners. So I'm selling this team because even though they've been beat up, I don't know if Mayfield coming back whenever he comes back is the cavalry riding back in. Because even Mayfield

going back to last year and the beginning of this year, very inconsistent for this team. So 0-4 I think is obviously worst case scenario for them. But clearly this team is just not what we thought that they were going to be with the whole makings of it. The roster, the coaching staff, the execution, everything. So I'm selling this team.

And they can't get away with the bad start they normally would because Carolina looks good and Atlanta looks good. And the Saints, I don't really know what the Saints are right now. I'm not going to lie.

You can't say it like that because if you were talking about the Falcons after the first two weeks, you'd say that they were like the worst team in the NFL. And if you were talking about the Saints after the first two weeks, you'd be like, oh, this team's easily winning the division.

And now two weeks later, that's the story of the NFC South.

Just wait a couple of weeks and you could totally be talking about a different team at the top of the division. Four weeks from now, the Bucs are going to be 4-4 and somehow at the top of the NFC South and it's going to look completely different.

Everybody say yeah!

I got to flip the script on you now, my friend, because we had to talk about the Buccaneers being short of expectations. The Houston Texans are next at that same 0-4. So are you buying or selling where the Texans are sitting here in 0-4 on this season?

The worst part is is how they're bad. It's everything that we wished for this offseason. We wanted C.J. Stroud to look like a top-ten quarterback. We wanted this passing game to be explosive. We wanted him to look like he did, honestly, as a rookie, threading those needles and hitting tight window throws, not just to Nico Collins, but to everybody. And he's done that, even with an offensive line that, while not as bad as the worst Texans offensive line that he's had, I wouldn't say they've been amazing so far this year. and he just looks like that guy at quarterback. It is everything that Houston fans wanted.

But for some reason, that monkey paw curled, and we got one of the worst defenses that we've had in recent history in Houston as well. If you're looking at explosive play rate allowed, if you're looking at tight window throw allowed, this secondary has gotten absolutely shelled. I never would have imagined CeeDee Lamb even could get 17 catches on the Texans, and he did it and made it look easy. Like Dak Prescott was just getting explosive after explosive.

Josh Allen was getting explosive after explosive. Like they couldn't handle Tee Higgins in the fourth quarter a couple weeks ago. It's just they can't stop anybody through the air. And even though you have Will Anderson who is playing on an entirely different planet right now. Like defensive player of the year is not close because of how well Will Anderson's playing. It doesn't matter if the back end is just getting torn to pieces. And I don't know how to fix it. Oh, you're going to upgrade corner from Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter? You're going to get better safeties than Petrie and Bullock? Like, I don't know what you're going to do to suddenly fix this unit other than just hope they play better. So it's such an

odd position to be in because they're losing in the exact opposite way that they lost last year. And it just feels like this team can't get both units together. play well at the same time. It's been that way my entire life. Whether it's 2016 having a great defense but a terrible offense. Whether it's the late 2000s Texans having a great offense with Schaub and Andre and Kevin Walter.

You bring in Aaron Foster a couple years after that. I don't know how you see it in bounds. I don't either, man. I had an out-of-body experience. They've always had great offenses then, but couldn't get a stop. Like this team just can't be complete. It drives me insane. And it's yet another year of only being half great.

And I, I don't, I don't know what to do. So I guess I'm buying it. Like, I don't want to like, I don't want to, but I'm doing it again.

Well, if it makes you feel better, I'm also buying this team.

Early and often, baby.

Early and often. Early and often, baby. Let's go.

I think that beauty is in the eye of the beholder with this, right? It can't be this bad forever for a Texans defense that was one of the best in the NFL last year, that has a defensive player of the year candidate, that has a lot of the same players that they had the year before. I mean, the Texans are giving up the highest explosive.

Play rate in the NFL right now.

It's at 21.4%.

It's just not going to sustain like that. They're forcing like zero turnovers right now. That's just not, I can't imagine that's going to sustain. So I think the defense will naturally get closer to at least middle of.

The pack in the NFL.

And even if the offense gets a little quieter, to me, I still see a world where they can play complimentary with each other.

And I'm going to buy the Houston Texans.

The last team here is the Los Angeles Chargers, also 0-4 on the season.

Oh, my God. I'm selling this team.

Not that I don't think it could get a little bit better, but Brett, it's the same issues that they had last year, just as much more of an Achilles heel because of what is going.

On around him.

They have had seven different offensive line combinations this season. which is the most in the NFL. When I say offensive line combinations, our researcher, Callie, basically put the minimum of, you have to play at least 10 snaps here together. You've got to have at least one or two drives where you're playing together as a unit.

Seven of those already. There's only been four weeks this season.

And Brett, if you go back to last year, it's crazy because they also led the NFL with 18.

Different O-line combinations.

Brett.

There's only 17 regular season games. Now, they did make the playoffs, so they had the extra game. They had a different O-line combination for every single game they played last season. Now, it didn't add up exactly to that, obviously, but that's crazy.

It's crazy how bad the luck is there for the Chargers.

So we can sit here and we can talk about the inconsistencies in the run game and some of the struggles with the receivers downfield and what in the hell Justin Herbert's even looking at.

But when you have changes.

And inconsistencies on the offensive line like that, How do you realistically think that it's going to get better? It's going to get a little bit better with the Chargers, but I'm selling this team. I think this ship has sailed this season for them because how do you win with that much change and uncertainty in the trenches?

I don't think you can. I'm selling as well. Highest pressure rate allowed in the NFL. One of the worst turnover rates in the NFL. I think it's two and a half per game. I can't buy that. I just can't. I can't do it. So, yeah, put me down for sale.

All right, that's all for the Aaron Ears report. We'll talk about some other teams in similar ways in a little bit. But I want to talk about the hottest buy four weeks into the season here, Brett. And there's nothing fancy about this one. There's no, oh, let me, you know, recognize maybe where a team is winning in the margins here or there.

No, no, no, no.

What's been the best stock? Who's been the best team? Four weeks into the season, if you were doing a power ranking of who's been the best, who you got?

I'm going to say Chicago. I mean, they've just been playing with their food, honestly. Last two weeks, not even with Caleb on the field. Like, their best defense has been their offense. They didn't let the Jets have the ball. Case Keenum was consistently getting them out of trouble two weeks ago on Monday Night Football. Like, Bajent was great.

Keenum was great. Caleb, before the injury, I thought was playing really well. You have three quarterbacks on this team that can start and win you games, plus a dominant run game. They're getting 100 yards rushing per game just to the right side, let alone the runs to the left side too. Their ball control offense is the best in the NFL. They're just unbelievable at it. And the defense has played better than I thought they would, especially after they got lit up by Bryce in the opening week.

Their fourth fewest EPA per play allowed so far this year, and their fifth fewest in terms of total EPA allowed. So if the defense is reasonably good and the offense looks like that, I feel like there's nothing left to complain about at that point. This looks like arguably the best team in the NFC.

I'm glad that you brought up that Carolina game because I think that's exactly how I would talk about and maybe even defend your take for the Bears being one of maybe the best team in the NFL is because, yeah, okay, the defense probably had their worst game against the Carolina Panthers in week one so far.

This season, right? Who won that game?

Chicago.

Yeah.

Why'd they win it? Because they scored 59 points.

Yeah.

And the point of the game of football is to simply score more points than the other team. And I'm not sure I believe in anybody more than I believe in Chicago to be able to do that. But they are not my hottest buy to start the season.

They're one of them for sure. So I think it's a good call out.

But to me, the hottest buy is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Because when you want to talk about complete football teams, I'd argue there is not a more complete football team in the NFL than what the Jags have right now. Offense, Trevor Lawrence has been fantastic. If you're playing heavy zone against him, he has been tearing it up all season long.

And on those games where, okay, maybe it's not a light it up through the air type of a game, they've got explosiveness in the ground game that they can go to. And Tootin's been able to showcase that in flashes. When they have gotten in the red zone, Lawrence has been Excellent when space is at a premium. The defense is playing really well as well. They are forcing tight window throws on a regular basis with how they are playing. Also, 11.4 missed tackle rate. That's 10th lowest in the NFL.

Fundamentally sound. Then you throw in the fact that they're good on special teams. They've got Cam Little as an ultimate weapon as a kicker as well. Brett, to me, this is the most complete team in the NFL. If I was doing a power ranking in the league right now, this would be my top team.

I can't really argue against it as long as you put Chicago number two.

I think it still puts Seattle number two, but Chicago, I think, is in that next category there.

Hell of a job, fellas!

Man, we talked about this week, man, being a big week to find out who we were, and you guys answered that call, man.

Now let's take a look at players that are paying dividends for you. So let's talk about these safe investments, these players that you absolutely want to pour most of your resources into because you know they're going to deliver week in and week out in a big way for these teams. We've each got a couple of these guys that we want to go to, so I'll let you go.

Let's go rapid fire here. You sort of list off your three guys, kind of talk about them a little bit. I'll give my thoughts, and then I'll move on to my three.

Yeah, I'll start with Jacob Rodriguez, the linebacker out of Miami, which a lot of people might think, what do you mean that's a thing that everybody was investing in? Everybody knew he was going to be good. I promise you, if you watch Texas Tech last year, the tackle numbers that he's putting up are not surprising. This was an incredibly safe investment before the season. A, because he was going to get snaps on this Miami team. Let's be realistic.

And if he was on the field, he was going to get tackles. He has 46 in four games, second most in the NFL. He has 18 run stops, also second most. 27 total defensive stops. Again, this is in four games, most in the NFL. His missed tackle percentage is just 8%. That's four missed tackles on the year, averaging one per game. So if you're only missing one tackle a game and you're getting, what, on average, 11.5, almost 12 tackles per game, that's pretty good. 16th best missed tackle percentage there. He's been everything that we thought he would be. Again, anybody that watched the Texas Tech Raider defense last year, you know, you go there and you look at David Bailey and you look at Romello Height and all the pass rushers, but you couldn't watch

that without seeing Jacob Rodriguez be arguably the most impactful defensive player on that unit, and he's been that way in the pros. As for number two, talked about him already, Brock Purdy, best EPA per dropback in the NFL, 10th highest completion percentage over expected. It was even higher than that going into last week. highest passer rating in the NFL he's been incredible MVP front runner for me or at minimum top three on the ballot I have no complaints about Brock Purdy so far this season he is the reason why this Niners offense has been so good and then of course JSN reigning offensive player of the year he's been everything that he was last year but maybe even more as impossible as that sounds 4.3 yards

per route run which if that held the entire year by the way would be the most ever In terms of receptions and yards, he has 32 catches, which is fourth in the NFL, 481 yards, third in the NFL, six touchdowns, most in the NFL. Six touchdowns in four weeks is just insane. He could give Randy's record a run for his money if they really, really press that JSN button in the red zone more often. He could get there. He's just spectacular, and everybody knew it going into this year, and he's been exactly the same, if not better.

I think that's also what's most impressive about JSN is that teams go into it every single week going without Kenneth Walker there. Like he's the guy, like he's who they're going to run the offense through every single week. Let's make sure that we stop it.

And then you can't.

And I think that that showcases how bright of a star he truly is. Okay, I'm going to get to my three here. To me, these are the safest dividends that we have had this season and just guys who just mean so much to their team. The first one is B. John Robinson because, Brett, he is, dare I say it, almost O-line proof. Because when the O-line is blocking well, oh, we see some special plays from B.

John Robinson.

But when the O-line isn't blocking well.

It's almost like he gets more special and the powers show up even more from him Listen to these numbers for Bijan so far four weeks into the season. 34 total missed tackles forced. That's second in the NFL. 220 yards after missed tackles forced. Second in the NFL. 448 yards after contact, which is sort of that individual ability beyond the offensive line.

That's the most in the NFL. 376 yards on outside zone. 138 rushing yards over expected. Both of those, most in the NFL.

And his success rate on Outside Zone has just been unbelievable as a whole.

Bijan is phenomenal.

And I know that I'm not breaking any glass, breaking any news, however you want to say it, about saying that to people here on this show. but he is one of the safest bets that we have because he is one of the best players in this sport. Will Anderson, you talked about him earlier when we were talking about the Texans and being a pillar of why it's hard to give up on this team. We're four weeks into the season. Defensive player of the year is almost wrapped up with this dude. He's got 26 pressures, third most in the NFL. 10 quick pressures, fourth most. He's been chipped 29 times because obviously he's Will Anderson. That's fourth most in the NFL. So he's got all this production while having all this extra attention on him. He's got

12 solo run stops as well. That's tied for most amongst edge rushers. He's not just a pass rusher. He's a total package as an edge rusher. And dude, they play him everywhere. They'll play him on the right side, on the left side. There was a play against the Cowboys where their defensive line was Danil Hunter at left end, Will Anderson at defensive tackle, and then Jadavion Clowney at right defensive end. That is so much power to deal with.

And when you have the versatility of Anderson to be able to win at any alignment on the defensive line and win at this level, well, that's what I would call the player who's going to pay dividends for you and a pretty safe pick there.

I mentioned some of those B.

John Robinson numbers and him being number two in the NFL in certain of these categories. It's because this next guy and this last guy, Kenneth Walker, is number one in some of these categories above him. 44 missed tackles forced. most in the NFL. That was right above Bijan Robinson. 235 yards after missed tackles. Again, you heard me say that Bijan's number two. It's because this guy is number one.

The value that Kenneth Walker brings to this Chiefs offense and how it doesn't have to be all on Patrick Mahomes. We already thought the Chiefs had one of the highest ceilings of any team in the NFL. And then we've watched what this guy is able to do. And now you've got to call up the builder and say, hey, buddy, we need a couple of extra stories here on the house because the ceiling's got to go a lot higher given what they've been able to do on the ground.

By the way, side note, the entire Chiefs running back room last year had 87 missed tackles for us. So he's already halfway there. We've only played for a month. So he's been that impactful for us.

60-yard run by Ken Walker III.

Welcome to the kingdom.

It's like you've been here all along.

Now, let's take a look at some penny stocks we're calling, right?

These guys that you could probably get on the cheap right now because the hype train's not too much, but you better get in on it now because the hype train's about to leave the station here. Who are some guys that you've seen play well early on who you think could explode and maybe turn into household and headline names over the next couple of weeks and for the rest of the season?

How about another young Dolphins defender? Just because I know a lot of people haven't got to watch Dolphins games so far this year. I would just for the defense. These guys are really entertaining. So I'm going to go with Chop Robinson, a year three edge over in Miami. He hasn't played every game so far this season. He's only got 65 pass rush snaps. And yet, he has the highest quarterback pressure percentage per next-gen stats of any edge, even over Will Anderson, believe it or not.

I won't believe it, actually. No, I'm choosing not to.

No, won't do it. 13.8% quick pressure rate.

That's crazy.

That's also incredible. He has a sack and four quarterback hits. 0.78 average getoff. His first step was his calling card in college. It is just as good now. He is incredibly explosive, very productive. Got 10 pressures last week against Minnesota. They just could not handle him at all. He is an edge rusher on the rise right now and really deserves attention. My next pick here, Denzel Boston, which if you play fantasy football, obviously you know who Denzel Boston is.

But a lot of people that maybe haven't watched the Browns so far this year don't know about Denzel Boston. Rookie receiver, ex-receiver, lines up 86.7% of the time outside. He is not a slot. He is purely an outside receiver that goes and boxes with corners every single snap. And he is really good at it. 2.3 yards per route run, which is 17th among all receivers. That gives some context to JSN being over four. He's kind of in his own stratosphere where 2.3 is top 17. In terms of receptions and yards, the numbers aren't necessarily crazy, but if you're looking at the last Browns rookie wide receiver to be this productive in their first four games, it's Corey Coleman, which was a while ago. That was

a while ago. So it's like, I don't know, a decade or so. And as far as just any Browns receiver to be this productive in their first four games, we're talking about Jarvis Landry, which also was a while ago.

A while ago, yeah.

Go ahead and bless him there. Go ahead and bless him there. Bless him.

Bless him.

God gave us this for a reason. Bless him.

I'll stay on the rookie train for my first guy because, Brett, this is the player. that if I had to vote for Offensive Rookie of the Year right now, he'd get it.

I would vote for this player.

And that is Ravens Interior Offensive Lineman, Vega Ioane. I'm giving love to the offensive lineman here, and I would genuinely give this guy Offensive Rookie of the Year. He has been that impactful to me. He started off as the right guard for this team, but he even had to play center last week. Went up against Jeffrey Simmons, and of course, Jeffrey Simmons got a little bit of his.

I mean, Jeffrey Simmons is one of the best defensive tackles in the game. But Vega held up way better than you would expect for a rookie player who is moving from guard to center for the first time in a long time because he played guard when he was at Penn State.

Specifically, what Vega.

Iwane has done for them in the outside zone run game has been so impactful. Baltimore's gained 266 yards on outside zone plays. That's fourth most in the NFL. And specifically to his right side, 149 yards on those plays. Again, top five, fourth most in the NFL. 375 yards to the right side in general, even just not outside zone plays, second most in the NFL. And a 51.5% success rate running to that side.

Of the ball.

That, to me, is a Vega-Yawane stat.

Because when you put a rookie offensive lineman on the line of scrimmage, You don't get that kind of success, but you do if you are this good. So he would win Offensive Rookie of the Year, in my opinion. And then the last guy that I want to shout out, dude, Evan Williams, the safety from Green Bay. Not enough people are talking about this dude. He is such an all-around playmaker to me.

They put him in the slot.

He is a box safety. He is a linebacker.

He is a blitzer. He is a coverage player. He is everything for this team. He does so much for them, and I think he is super underrated. Seven run stops, tied for fifth most among safeties. 19 tackles in run defense, second most among safeties. Four passes defended, second most among safeties.

He's got the whole buffet.

He's diversifying the portfolio.

Get in on the Evan Williams train before it leaves the station because I think it is only a matter of time before he is recognized as one of the versatile and most impactful safeties in the NFL.

So get in on it.

And those are some players that we think that you should keep an eye on four weeks into the season that you should buy right now because we think they're taking off.

Here's the snap. Blips on.

And it is Evan Williams again.

Fires it over the middle. And there is your dagger.

And they will close this one here today on the road in Tampa. Let's get to the hot seat index, Brett. Four weeks into the year, no coach had been fired yet. But the seat's heating up. It's getting a little hot for some of these coaches.

Who is one of them around the NFL that you think that we should point out here on.

The hot seat index? Not to beat a dead horse, but I'm going to go with Nick Sirianni here. I've had this take for a while and I have had lively discussions with Eagles fans about it over the years. I'm not really sure what he brings to the building other than, I guess, vibes, but he's not somebody who's going to fix the offense. He's never been a great, purely offensive coach, right? Like the wonder kids, like the Sean McVeigh's and the Ben Johnson's, you know, what we think, you know, maybe Grant Edinsky, Nate Shieldhouse will be whenever they get a job. Like he's never been that kind of guy that you think, okay, it's a, it's fine if they lose an offensive coordinator because Nick Sirianni is

still there. Their offenses have been up and down year over year, depending on who the offensive coordinator is, because Nick Sirianni is not going to fix it if their offensive coordinator situation is bad. So what does he actually bring to the table? Like, does the culture seem great to you? It doesn't necessarily seem great to me, And even when it has been good, I feel like that's been more because of player leadership than Nick's leadership. I just, I feel like when the team is so coordinator dependent and it has been coordinator dependent for so long, they're great when they have great coordinators, they're bad when they have bad coordinators. At that point, the pattern is, The head coach isn't bringing a lot to the table. So

what does he do? And I know I'm sounding very mean here. Believe me, this is the nicest way to put it compared to how Eagles fans are talking about him. And you cannot blow a game where you have a 96% chance to win and you're on the two-yard line. You cannot blow that game, and he blew that game. And the Eagles squander a golden opportunity after a great drive.

Fourth down, incomplete. Rams take over, and they're still alive, down by 10. So I would say his seat, with the exception of maybe two other guys in the league, is probably the hottest of any coach right now. Because Philly, historically, is not a franchise that is going to give you a bunch of grace just because you won a Super Bowl.

Like Doug Peterson was gone in under three years after he won a Super Bowl. So I don't think he's safe here. In fact, I'd say it's more the opposite. He is on the hot seat. And also, side note, here's a stat for you, since this is a stat-based show. There have been three head coaches fired on their way home from London in the last 12 years. I'm not saying Nick Sirianni is going to become the fourth, but London tends to be a trip where if you get embarrassed on the road, it really pisses off owners. If you're doing it like on the international stage, you're the only game on TV. Like everybody's watching that game. If, if you get embarrassed in that game, either you get fired on the way home or you get fired after

the season, like owner's, I hate looking non-competitive in an international game.

I wouldn't have thought there were that many.

It's a lot.

It's a pattern. I guess that does make sense.

Yeah, like you're getting embarrassed on not just national TV, quite literally international TV.

Yeah, I guess so.

It's never just, hey, it's this. I wouldn't say never. Sometimes it is.

My hot seat index coach is Todd Bowles. And I think that there's a lot of things that go into this. Very obviously, starting 0-4 when you were division favorites, I think is certainly reason enough to be on this list. But also, you just, I think, look at the full context with Bowles. Yes, they did win a lot of division titles in a row with Todd Bowles. But there's only one season where they won double-digit games, and it was 10.

The rest of the years, they're winning eight. They went in nine. They went eight again.

This has been a mediocre football team. They've won divisions because the rest of the NFC South hasn't been great.

But let's be honest.

I mean, they've floated around 500 basically the entire time that Todd Bowles has been head coach. So it's not like, oh, they won all these divisions in a row. Look at these 12, 13 win seasons. Look at these NFC Championship runs. They've had a couple of playoff wins here and there.

This is very true.

But for the most part, especially in the regular season, It's been right around 500. And I don't think that it helps that Dave Canales is looking really good with Bryce Young right now.

Liam Cohen certainly looks great with the Jacksonville Jaguars. It has over the last year.

And a half. Both of those guys were in the building.

And amidst the success, you obviously chose to keep Todd Bowles over potentially elevating one of those guys. And I'm not saying it was an easy situation or an easy decision to make. But we sit here and I think unfortunately for Bulls, you have to go, hey man, we picked you over making a change. You go back to last year and how disappointing last year was after their start to the season and how it absolutely fell apart in like every way possible for this team last year.

And the Buccaneers said, nope, we're still going to ride with them.

And now they're 0-4.

So to me, Bowles' seat was already a little warm going into the season because there was at least a conversation about replacing him after how last season ended. Now you have yet to get a win four weeks into the season. You better believe that seat's really hot. I don't know if Bowles gets fired during the season, Brett.

I'm going to be honest with you.

Probably not because who would you replace him with?

That's the issue is that a lot of their struggles on the team come from the offensive side of the ball anyways. you're not going to elevate Zach Robinson to the interim head coach position. So I don't know if it's coming soon, but it certainly doesn't look like things are going to end well for bowls after this season.

It feels like we're getting to the point where if they don't turn things around in a major way, Tampa is going to be making a coaching change.

It just feels like it's yet another example of, of teams that are really afraid to fire a, an on paper, very successful head coach who's winning a bunch of division titles and everything like that. Even when they know one of their coordinators is the guy, like he's going to be the guy for some other team. They know they're going to lose him. They know he's going to be great wherever he goes. It's eerily reminiscent of when the Ravens let Mike McDonald walk out the door and every Ravens fan knew that might've been a mistake. Not even might've was a mistake. He won a Superbowl two years in Seattle. And I think a lot of Ravens fans were like, hey, we love John Harbaugh, respect John Harbaugh, gave us a lot of good years. Mike McDonald's the guy. Like,

do not let him walk out the building. And they did. And I think when they brought in Jesse Minter, it was an acknowledgement of like, hey, we had some really good homegrown talent here, and we let it go. We're not going to make that mistake again. We're going to get Jesse Minter before somebody else does. And so far, the Ravens are looking pretty good. Now, ironically, they have another one coming up in Declan Doyle who they're going to lose, but... I think the Bucs are similar, and they did it twice, where, okay, Dave Canales, he looked like the guy. You have somebody who's young and coming up within your ecosystem. We had previously seen him work miracles with Chino Smith. Then he worked miracles with Baker Mayfield.

You let him walk out the door, goes to Carolina, working miracles with Bryce Young. And then Liam Cohen, maybe even more like everybody knew Liam Cohen could take whatever job he wanted.

That was the big one. Cohen's the big one.

And there was that ugliness on the exit, right? It was really, really ugly. And I think that might've been the sign that they should have just hired Liam Cohen and like, Whether you do the thing of, okay, we're going to promote Todd Bowles to president of whatever, or you just flat out move on. I think if they went back in time, they would have avoided the ugliness with Liam and just made Liam the head coach and probably been a better football team. All right. Game picks for week five. We have 10 games, as always, and we are instituting a new rule this week because you guys...

Have bloodlust.

I have missed two straight.

Games in the 10 spot. And you guys wanted punishment. So we're instituting punishment. From now on, starting this week, if we choose a game for our 10 spot and we get it correct, obviously we get 10 points. If we lose, we get minus 10 for the week. So luckily I avoided punishment the last couple weeks. Ideally, I don't miss another 10 spot game, but they don't call it the Coleman curse for nothing. Trevor, are you ready for your punishment?

No, not me.

I'm not getting punished out here. I'm not missing any games in the 10th spot. That's you, my friend. So, look, I haven't done that since week one. We're a long way removed from that. We've improved, just like a lot of teams have improved in the NFL since week one.

So have my game picks.

But before we get into it, of course, we have to talk about what our results were last week. You mentioned that you missed your most confident game that you picked. You picked the Buffalo Bills over the New England Patriots.

Ultimately.

you got 36 points last week.

I don't know how many I got. So we were tied. We were tied going into last week. So you got 36. How many did I get from my picks?

I mean, getting 36 while missing the 10 spot isn't terrible. I'll just say it is because I missed the 10 spot. But other than that, not bad. You did hit your 10 spot last week. You took The Seahawks over the Chargers.

Never in doubt. Never in doubt.

Never in doubt.

No, no, no, no, no. From the first throw of that game, never in doubt, baby.

Buddy, the second throw was also a pick.

Well, we don't got to talk about that part. The cigar's already lit, my friend. We're already off in the patio in the next room. We're celebrating.

You got your 10 spot. However, it was a lot closer than you think. You got 37 points. On the week, bringing your season total 148. So you were up by one. Let's go.

Let's go.

Narrowly hanging in there.

That's what you want to see there. By the way, we got to shout out some people who are getting in on the game with us.

You guys can go through all of the 10 games that we pick here on the show and put them in order of confidence in the comments. Because if you do and you have a really good week, we'll shout you out on the show like we are right here. Girls Say had 51 points today. 51 points last week.

That was the top score that we had from anybody in the comments. Trey, 46 points.

So dude, if you would have gotten your 10 spot game, you would have tied for second place of anybody here. Dutch had 45 points as well. For some fun trends here, 23 of the 106 fans that submitted your confidence picks out there, 23 of you beat me, 32 of you beat Brett Nguyen. and buffalo that was the top trap game 106 out of 106 entries picked the buffalo bills not a oh so i'm not alone took the new england patriots there That single game cost fans a total of 915 points.

So we're having fun. This is a lot of fun. I'm enjoying this.

It's a fun way to go through some of these big games every single week and get to pick them here with you.

That game just single-handedly ruined my week in more ways than one. I'll say that. Are you ready for the week five slate? Let's do it.

What game we start with?

We're going to start with, well, we might as well start with the Patriots again, to be honest. Patriots, Raiders, who you got?

I'm going to take the Raiders. I'm going to take the Raiders in this game.

And I'm going to put it in my sixth spot when it comes to confidence here.

Obviously, the New England.

Patriots a lot better last week. Drake May looked a lot better. The defense looked pretty good trying to rattle Josh Allen. But then also mitigating what the Buffalo Bills were able to counter with on the ground as well. And so it was a much better looking Patriots team. But man, I've got so much faith in what this Las Vegas Raiders team is doing. Maybe one special team's blunder away from perhaps beating the Kansas City Chiefs last week.

And so I think the Raiders are on a roll. And with that coaching staff and with some of the new veteran leadership on that team, I'm not saying that this is a letdown that's bound to happen. Give me the Raiders in this one and give me them at the sixth spot when it comes to my confidence.

See, I took the Patriots here, but I put it at the one spot. I'm still trying to figure out exactly what these teams are. I know the Raiders are good. I know the Raiders are very well balanced. But this one spot is really more, I have No clue how to read the Patriots at this point. More specifically, I don't really know which Drake May we're going to get from week to week. Is it weeks one through three Drake May? Is it week four Drake May? Two very different quarterbacks, two very different teams as a result.

Is it 2025 Drake May?

Is it 2023 Drake May?

We don't know.

We have no idea. Is it sophomore year North Carolina Drake May? They might not lose a game if it was. Is it sophomore year of high school Drake May? It's a mystery every single week. But man, when he is on He is on. He was exceptional against the Blitz. He had three touchdowns against the Blitz last week. They blitzed him 14 times. He was awesome. That last touchdown to Efton Chisholm, was it a great catch by Efton? Obviously, yes.

But Drake May kind of feeling that pressure, moving away from it, identifying the one-on-one, throwing a seed. When he's at his best, it's a very tough team to beat. So I took the Patriots, but very narrowly because I think this is a true toss-up to me.

Honestly, the fact that they're at the sixth spot talks about how close I feel like some of these games could be this week. So obviously we'll get to some that are lower on my list than number six where I have the Raiders winning.

Next one. Minnesota, New Orleans. Who do we got? So.

I'm going to take the Saints here, and this is going to be a little bit of a trend that I have with some of my picks where I'm looking at teams who are sort of down on their luck, backs against the wall, have to come out swinging. And when you look at Minnesota, we've talked about how, yes, elite defensive performance through four weeks from Brian Flores and the fellas, but But on the offensive side of things, I mean, they're not playing complimentary football at all whatsoever.

And even though I think that they are certainly a good team with how great their defense is, that offense really has to take not just a step, multiple steps forward for me to have a lot of confidence in them week in and week out to beat some of the better teams. Now, New Orleans, they're licking their wounds coming off of an absolute shellacking. I don't know if that's a word, but I'm using it here on this show at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons.

And it was home nonetheless.

But I think that was very much a game where, Kellen Moore even said it afterwards, they were kind of unprepared for that game. And I just don't see that happening again this week. I think that they're going to be ready. I think this is going to be a close game. But given the potential of New Orleans offense, give me the Saints to be able to win this game, especially because through two weeks of the season, the early weeks, Tyler Shuck had the most passing yards under pressure of any quarterback in the NFL, so we know he's going to get pressured and blitzed, but he's actually been pretty decent at it, or at least was at the beginning of the year. So give me New Orleans, and I'm going to take this one in the.

Four spot here. So they said they weren't prepared for that game, but how prepared can you be for Brian Flores one less day? Right, because it was a Monday game, and you've got to come back in six days and play Brian Flores. I am really worried about the Saints in this one, and I know Saints fans are upset with me because I– just showed the passing chart of Tyler Shuck and was like, Hey, we should probably work the middle of the field more. Like he's been very effective when he did it. We should, we should probably do that more. And the response was, well, they didn't have a run game. So there was no play action.

Historically speaking, you actually don't have to have a good run game to do play action. You just do it, right? You have to commit to it. But this team has been reluctant to go under center, reluctant to use play action and, And when the run game doesn't work, their answer has been, okay, we're going to throw quick and outside the numbers and basically just turn our quick passing game into our running game. And against this specific defense from Minnesota where they love to eat quarterbacks alive who work or at least try to work that area of the field, I'm really worried about it. The Minnesota defense is structured in a way where they force you to be good at working the intermediate middle. And while Tyler

Shuck has been good at doing it, at least from an analytics perspective, they haven't done it a lot, at least to the degree that I think they're going to have to do it in this game. So there's a little bit of an unknown here. It's kind of a chicken or the egg. Have they not been doing it because they're just not doing it? Or are they not doing it because they aren't sure if Shuck can do it seven, eight times in a game?

Right.

I guess we'll find out, but we're going to have to find out in this game. So give me Minnesota. I put them at the two spot. I think it's very close either way, but I am worried about the Saints matchup here.

All right, so you're getting your one and two least confident games out of the way here to start.

What's the next game?

Let's just rip the Band-Aid off. Seattle, San Francisco. I struggle in this one, man. I know San Francisco is banged up, but they're always banged up. and I know McDonald has had Brock Purdy's number in the past, but just the way that he's playing right now, I mean, it's really, really hard to pick against the Niners. Denver threw everything they could at them. They held them down for a long time. It was 3-3 deep into the third quarter, and eventually they got frustrated. They called zero a few times, and Purdy Like he ate it up.

He had a perfect passer rating and getting zero. And they only called it three times. He averaged like 20 yards per attempt against zero. And that's the thing against the Niners. Like it's a, it's a battle of patience. And the second you get frustrated and try to get more aggressive against them, Purdy and Shanahan just got you.

And I, I worry about, about Seattle trying to get a little bit too aggressive here just to make something happen. and opening the door for San Francisco to do that. Seattle's red zone defense this year weirdly has been really bad compared to their defense in between the 20s. And if the Niners can just get down to the red zone, I think they can score on them. And I still have some reservations about the Seattle offense. Are they too JSN-centric? Sure.

Right.

You know, they had a bunch of drives against the Chargers. Two of them started inside the Charger 25-yard line. If you're looking at drive-to-drive efficiency outside of that, it wasn't a very good performance by them. So I'm reluctantly taking Seattle here. I'm putting it at the five spot.

Wait, so you are taking Seattle?

I know. After all of that? I know. I know. I don't feel good about it. I'm not saying I feel good about it. But I am doing it. I'm going to regret it, but I'm doing it. Where were they on the list for you? Five.

Okay.

Like dead in the middle.

They're three for me. So I've got Seattle winning as well at the three spot. But I think them being so low on the confidence meter sort of gives respect to what I think about the 49ers and how good they are this season. I think there's only two teams in the NFL that I would take to beat the 49ers right now.

And they happen to be playing one of them.

Seattle and then Jacksonville is the other one those two teams are the one and two teams in my opinion in the NFL and then I put the Niners number three Brock Purdy is truly playing at an MVP level however if you look at the last couple of years the two worst passing performances for Brock Purdy have come against the Seattle Seahawks and Mike McDonnell's defense and I think if you go back even further if you go back to when Mike McDonnell was on the Baltimore Ravens as well that was also one of Brock Purdy's worst um quarterback rating performances as well. Mike McDonald just has Brock Purdy's number, or at least he has in the past.

Doesn't mean he will 100% this upcoming game, but I got to go with the history here, and I just got to go with one of the few coaches that seems to get the better of Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan. Give me Seattle here. I got them in the three spot. It's very much picking with your head over picking with your heart. My heart is telling.

Me this is a wonky one for Seattle. My head is telling me the history is the history. So I think it's going to be very close either way.

I thought we were going to be different for the first three games there. That would have made this pretty exciting. Well, I mean, I think this week is already exciting because we're starting off with picking different games already and we're only three games in.

We've got two different ones. Let's go with one that I think Maybe we'll be the same on Chargers-Broncos? I have the Chargers.

Over the Broncos. Okay.

I did too. So we're actually really, come on, man.

I'm trying to get one up on you.

So this is again, going back to the theme that I was talking about a couple of minutes ago, where I'm looking at some of these teams, especially some of these teams that maybe we had higher hopes for going into the season. And I look at them as this, this is a back against the wall type of a moment. I understand that like Denver's a good football team. Bo Nix hasn't been great for good stretches of the early part of this season, and last week, just simply, he did not play quarterback well enough for them to win that game. All of that to say, Denver's still a really good and talented football team. However, if the Chargers go 0-5, brother, we're... I mean, if you're 0-4, you're on the cusp of just packing it in mentally. You

go 0-5, the wheels are going to fall off. And I just, again, going back to sort of what I was talking about a little bit with the New Orleans Saints, you've basically got to punch back here. or you won't at all for the rest of the season. So I'll take the more desperate team. There's not a lot that I can say analysis-wise that would actually point me to the Chargers winning this.

Game other than.

Bo Nix continuing to look reserved in how he is scanning the field, where he is choosing to get rid of the football, and how inexplosive it feels like that offense is overall right now, especially in the early parts of the game, first half, and then somehow Sometimes it even bleeds into that second half and that third quarter as well with how conservative they are. You could look at that and then you could say, hey, if this is the game where Justin Herbert's deep completion percentage and deep passes turns around, yeah, then I could see a path for the Chargers to win this one. But I don't know how it's exactly going to happen. But I do think that the Chargers are an extremely desperate football team.

And whatever the best version of this team is, given the injuries that they have, I think we see it on Sunday against Denver. And if we don't, oh boy, this season's going to get ugly when it comes to win-loss record for the Chargers.

What spot did you put it in? Oh, five.

I got this in a five spot right.

In the middle. I put it at seven. I'm actually pretty confident in this one.

You madman.

So before we started recording this, it came out Patrick Sertan, Pat Bryant, obviously both injured, potential IR candidates. So it could get late early in Denver if things keep going this way. Not to mention their running backs, like their backfield sans Jonah Coleman is just bad.

Hey, respect RJ Harvey getting 10 targets and 10 catches last week.

Respect RJ Harvey. But he's a receiver out of the backfield. As far as just having a consistent.

I said respect him. I said respect him.

I'm respecting.

The role.

But as a team, they were negative 19 rushing yards over expected. They only averaged 3.7 per carry, and even that was generous. J.K. Dobbins specifically struggled to fight through contact, averaging 3.7, I believe, just against light boxes, let alone heavier boxes. plus the Bo Nix stuff, plus the injuries.

If the Chargers could stop turning it over two and a half times per game on average, last week it was four, the week before that they fumbled, or two weeks before that they fumbled six times in one game. If they could just hold on to the ball, this team could not even just beat Denver, I think capably beat Denver because of everything going on with the Broncos.

But that is the great equalizer here, is just the Chargers turnover issue. So we'll see what happens, but I think the Chargers win, and I put it in the 7th spot. Ooh, the 7th spot.

All right, which one's next?

Chicago Green Bay. I imagine you're going Bears here.

This one is in the 7th spot for me, and I am indeed going the Chicago Bears over the Green Bay Packers. I will say that it was nice to see Jordan Love... play well in the area where I think he really needs to moving forward. And that is in the short passing game. Remember, we've talked over the last couple of weeks of if the offensive line is going to be this bad, Jordan Love has to be a lot better in the air yards of zero to 10 yards, right? The quick game, getting it out of your hand pretty quickly, because that's not the brand of ball Jordan Love wants to play. Jordan Love wants to play backyard football. He wants to snap the football. He wants to hold onto it. He wants to scan the field and he wants to.

Make the big play.

Now, obviously that has its pros and cons, but I genuinely think that a lot of times that's a good thing.

I like the way that Jordan Love plays.

He plays a brand of football that attacks the field and he's not afraid to attempt the passes that you need to, to win games in this league. But this year, with that offensive line the way that it is, you've got to adapt. And through the first couple of weeks of the season, he wasn't ready to adapt. Against the Buccaneers, he was. Now, the Bucs, not a great football team.

We'll talk a little bit more about that when we get to another game that's a little bit higher on my confidence meter here.

A little? Yeah.

But can't give it away, Brett. The people have got to continue to watch. You can't give it away quite yet. But I think that it was nice to at least see him really succeed in that short area type of passing game because that's what you're going to need. Now, all of that to say, is it going to be enough to keep up with the Bears?

Sure doesn't feel like it. So I got Chicago in this one at the seventh spot.

We had mentioned in the show earlier this week that the Bears had more first downs than the Jets had plays. Yes. They were basically toying with them. in a respectful kind of way. Cause I don't think Ben Johnson wanted to embarrass Aaron Glenn. Obviously they're close. They have a history together, but they were doing everything they can to show that this was a very easy football game for them just without running up the score.

Yeah.

And I, I don't expect them to do the same thing against green Bay, but Chicago looks like a true juggernaut and green Bay is just banged up in all the worst ways. I think they still have great elements to them. I think Jordan love is a very good quarterback. Um, Obviously, Christian Watson is dynamic. Tucker Kraft, one of the best yards after catch weapons at the tight end position. Evan Williams, we've talked about a couple times. He's playing out of his mind. The cupboard isn't completely bare, but when you compare it to what the Bears have, I just don't think it's close. I really don't. So I put them at the eight spot, Bears over Packers.

Okay.

All right.

About the same.

About the same for that one then. It's close. It's close. I do want you to talk about Dallas-Tampa, though. Let's just do that now.

Ten spot, not even close.

Barely even thought about it.

Yeah.

Obviously, I'm taking the Bucs to beat the Cowboys in the ten spot.

No, I'm kidding.

I'm taking the Cowboys to beat the Buccaneers in the ten spot on Thursday Night Football. There's just nothing about this Buccaneers offense that tells me it's going to keep pace with Dallas.

Even if you.

Tell me, hey, we're going to get the best– game that the Bucs defense has played yet this season which I think would be a stretch in and of itself this Cowboys offense has so many answers to so many different problems whether it's in the passing game running game okay it hasn't always been there but like there have been moments where they've been good with the ground game so we know it's possible for them some of their offensive linemen man I mean like Tyler Guyton's really kicking ass I mean like a lot of their offensive linemen are playing really well as a unit even with some guys in and out of the lineup I feel really confident about the offense on Dallas' side of things and specifically their quarterback and how they're handling things post-week one.

Week one was a flub for sure for this entire team, but they've looked good and Dak has looked good since. So I've got a lot of confidence in the points that the Cowboys are going to be able to put up. And for the Buccaneers, I just don't have that faith in Zach Robinson's offense right now for them. And I don't even think that's mainly a Jalen Daniels problem. Jalen Daniels looked okay for an undrafted free agent making his first start. But even when Baker Mayfield is out there, Brett, who do you fear on this Bucs team? I mean, I like Emeka Igbuka a lot. I think Igbuka's a really nice player. Do you fear him? This team uses motion all the time, and Igbuka's the motion man, and they're going to him all the time. Teams don't fear

him right now. Chris Godwin, love him. He's not the Chris Godwin from 2017, 2018, 2019. Teams don't fear Chris Godwin. They don't fear Cade Otten. They certainly don't fear Bucky Irving right now, who is just not forcing the missed tackles that he did in his rookie season that made him such a dangerous runner out of the backfield.

There's just not a threat.

There's no threats there. that can really strike fear in defenses. And I think that's why you're seeing the Bucs struggle to move the ball against teams. It's not just an execution thing. I think defenses believe they can be pretty aggressive in how they play the Bucs because they don't fear they're getting beat. They fear that, okay, maybe you'll give up a one or two decent chunk plays here and there, but it's not going to be catastrophic stuff.

That's the way that I feel like they're playing right now. And so I just, I feel the total opposite about the Cowboys offense. And the game is about Who has the most points when the clock hits zero? Well, I have a lot of faith that that's going to be Dallas, so I got them in the 10 spot here this week.

It's hard to have more points than the Dallas Cowboys every single week. And I would say the key difference, to your point about the Bucs' talent, they have good players, right? Emeka Ibuka is good. Bucky Irving is good. I think Baker Mayfield, when he was healthy, sacks notwithstanding, I don't even really think that was entirely his fault, but we've seen Baker be good before. He's not even in this game.

On defense, they have good players. They don't necessarily have the star power that Dallas does, no pun intended, that can make your offense right even when the play call is wrong. Right, right, yes. Dak Prescott could just look at your defense and say, you got to schematically, but I'm going to make this throw anyway. And CD can look at whatever corners out there. He looked at the Texans secondary last week. It was like Derek Stingley, Kamari Laster, I don't care, 17 catches. George Pickens, he didn't catch that many balls last week, but one of the catches he made deep down the field was just inconscionable. I cannot believe he's able to make some of those tight window catches. Not to mention the Cowboys offensive line was

beating up the Texans front. Like Javante Williams looks... like North Carolina, Javonta Williams this year. Yeah, they're a shade in it for sure. They just have dudes that tilt the field. And even if I would say the Bucs have more good talent on the roster over the Cowboys, the Cowboys have more great talent than the Bucs do.

And in a league that kind of you get wins and losses based on how much great talent you have, it's hard to have more than Dallas. So I'm taking them as well. But I did put them in the nine spot. They were not my tenner for the week.

Okay, now I got to know just who's a ten. Now I got to, what's a ten?

How about we just go to that game? Yeah, yeah. I got to hear it. It's the first one of Sunday. Overseas, Jacksonville over the Eagles. That is my ten spot for the week.

I have them at the nine. Okay, so we're just flip-flopped on both. We're just flip-flopping it.

Yep, yep.

I have more self-deprecation in my number ten overall team this week. And you have the team who I would believe I would take the Jags. If I was doing a power ranking, we don't do power rankings, but if I was doing them, I'd have the Jags as my number one team in the NFL.

So I totally get it here with you.

They're at worst third. Like, at worst. And even that's like a hard. I don't even think they're three. I agree with you there. And the Eagles right now are a mess. You know, who's their... Is it Shipley? Is RB1 this week against a very good Jags front? I think it is Shipley.

The better question is, Brett, who's RB2?

Do they have one at this point? That's what I'm saying. Somebody's got to be RB2.

Who is it? I literally have no idea because we're down to our fourth running back. I only see Will Shipley on the depth chart. So they're going to have to call somebody from the practice squad, I guess. You know, we should get notice of that. I mean, they have to travel in a couple days. I think they have Jaden Blue. Okay, so I think on the practice squad they have Jaden Blue, Damian Pierce, and Carson Steele. Okay.

One of these young men is going to be taking spell carries. Behind Will Shipley in that backfield.

For this game. They'll be telling stories about them in Delco for generations if they win this game. My God.

Yeah.

Not to mention, the offensive line hasn't exactly been opening holes for Saquon as it is. That's Saquon.

Right. To me, there's too many issues for Philly's offense. And there's just too many things going the Jags' way.

Even in a game.

like last week where Trevor Lawrence isn't spectacular. He's not lighting the world on fire, but he was doing what he needed to do against that Bengals team to continue to move the ball, score more than 20 points. The reason why I have the Jags at number one is because pass game on offense, rush game on offense, and then overall defensive performance, I think they're the most complimentary team in the NFL with what they're able to do.

So yeah, I got full faith in them to take down a team Like Philadelphia, who is inefficient, to say the least.

All right, next game here, the other side of Pennsylvania. Pittsburgh, Indy, what you got? Steelers. Steelers.

At the one spot?

So you're just as reluctant about it?

I mean, at the one spot. Dude, the Steelers and the Colts are, to me, the most.

We play to this level of football every single week. If you happen to play at this level, guess what? Congrats on the dub. If you happen to play at this level... We got the better of you. They both play right here. If this game ends in a tie, I would be not surprised at all whatsoever.

Do we get points if they tie?

That's how I feel.

I get points because I'm calling it out here if they tie. I'm saying I get points if they tie this game. But yeah, I'll take the Steelers. I think that I've seen at moments, right, like The Steelers' passing attack at times has been a little bit more explosive, certainly without Alec Pierce than the Colts' passing attack has been.

They struggled with play action. They struggled just with passing yards that were... beyond five yards down the field last week honestly the ground game can always be a decent factor for them but these are two teams Brett that just honestly the reason why I have it at the one spot is because I see these teams so similarly they just play their same brand of football every single week but I also have more faith in the Steelers defensive side of the ball especially from those guys up front that they have so give me the Steelers in this one but I only have it at the one spot.

I feel like the way the Colts can win right now, just based on how they looked is like to win in a rationally chaotic slop fest. And they're getting into an irrationally chaotic slop fest with the Kings of the irrationally chaotic slop fest. So I'm going to go Pittsburgh here because they love that kind of game. And I put it, they do six spot.

Whoa.

Yeah.

Wow.

Yeah. Cause this is the exact kind of game where it's like, Oh, welcome to hell, buddy. Like, this is our apartment. You're staying here. Like, we're leasing it out to you. But this is our building. Welcome.

The landlords of slop games.

That's what you just called the Pittsburgh Steelers. Slumlords of slop town. That's what the Steelers are. They are so good at winning those kind of games. And I don't think the Colts. It's like an amateur going up against a professional. Okay. All right. Can't do it. Can't do it. Um, Baltimore, Atlanta, this game was super fascinating to me before the Lamar ankle injury in the second half, because based on what we saw from Atlanta in week four, and then obviously in week five, I kind of had this one circled on the calendar, um, for, for this coming week. And then Lamar got injured. Uh, Atlanta still looked like what Atlanta did a week ago. And so there's like a little bit of shine off this game because I was

so fascinated to see one of the four best offenses in the NFL go up against a very plucky. Isn't the right word? Uh, underrated, unheralded Falcons deep. Like even for what we've seen in the last couple of weeks in primetime, I still feel like people aren't realizing like how good this Falcons defense has been. Um, so go, you know, as far as strength on strength, I thought that was a fascinating matchup. Not to mention Bijan, uh, uh, and panics and Drake London against, you know, this Jesse Minner defense. I, there were so many elements of this matchup that I was really excited for. And then Lamar got injured. So there's a little bit of shine off of it. I still think it'll be an entertaining game,

but overall, because it's Snoop and not Lamar, give me the Falcons. And I put that at the four spot. Okay.

Um, Full transparency, I filled out these games before I really saw that Lamar was going to have an outside chance to start in this game. And because you've chosen to mention this game at near the end of the episode here, I don't have a lot of flexibility to change it up or down. So give me the Baltimore Ravens.

Give me Snoop Huntley, Pro Bowl quarterback, over the Atlanta Falcons. at the eight spot baby oh god give me.

The Baltimore Ravens at the eight spot oh no I'm taking it look listen listen the Baltimore Ravens one of the better outside zone rushing teams in the NFL even with the injuries that they have on their offensive line. King Henry's been fantastic at it. They got Zay Flowers back. He's a yards after catch monster.

Snoop Huntley, may I say again, a pro ball quarterback.

Respect the name.

Thank you. Oh, my God.

And I'm just having to believe that everything we saw from the Falcons over the last two weeks has been utter fabricated garbage and a fugazi at the highest level.

So give me the Ravens at the eighth spot. Buddy, I'm not doubling down. I'm tripling down. Oh, man, this is going to go really awful for one of us. I don't know who yet.

You know the scene in Casino Royale where he's just like, hey, I'm out of chips.

And he's like, oh, can I buy in more? He's like, no, you can't. And he just pulls out his car keys and he just puts the car keys in the pot. That's basically what.

I did with the Ravens there.

I was just like, oh, I don't have any more money.

Here's my car keys on the table. See, I thought it was going to be the other scene from Casino Royale where you're dying and suffocating to death in the car, grasping for the defibrillator, hoping somebody can come save you. Oh, my Lord, Trevor.

Where do you have them? We are not going to be tied next week.

Wait, you have the Falcons where?

The four? I have the Falcons at the four spot. The four spot, okay. So that's a 12-point swing.

We have a lot of swings in this season.

This is where the game is getting for real because we have, I don't even know, like five different games of we're just picking different opponents, but then we also are sort of all over the place.

Zero shot we're anywhere near each other after this one. Zero shot.

That's what this game's all about, baby.

Let's go. Well, the last game I thought was fairly close, but after today so far, maybe it's not. Buffalo, L.A.

I have this at the two spot.

And I suppose I could have switched this with the eight spot if I wanted to. But I have the Rams winning this game over Buffalo. But to be honest, it's just a coin flip type of a game. And to me, the answer is very simple on who wins this game. Does Josh Allen turn the ball over? If he does, Rams probably win.

Very high chance.

If Josh Allen doesn't have turnovers, Bills win.

And that's basically my oversimplified Bills script every single time. Because I think the Bills have the ability to play really well up front. I think they have a good run game. Keon Coleman's coming alive in that offense. And it's just, do they turn the ball over? And if they don't, I think they've got a lot on both sides of the ball to beat you. And I'm still worried about the Rams.

I am. I know that, hey, it's a comeback win against the Eagles. They're sitting here at 2-2. It looks a lot better than 1-3.

But Brett.

It took a team botching a.

Goal line series and going 0 for 12 on third down for you to just win at the end?

I still don't love that. It's the turnovers, man. It's the turnovers.

I still don't love that.

So anyway, I'm taking the Rams, but I got to end my two spot this week.

So I took Buffalo. Okay. We are so different. We are so different.

One of us is getting 40 points and the other is getting 10. Yeah, 100%.

Yes, yes, yeah, yeah. Especially if one of us misses the game.

Or both of us are getting like 18.

Here's my reasoning for that, though. And I accept all of your points. It's kind of the same thing for Buffalo. It comes down to turnovers. I guarantee the people watching this game at home are going to see four of the most ridiculous throws of the entire season in this game. No question. It's going to be unbelievable cinema watching these guys go toe-to-toe. You're also going to see, at minimum, one of the dumbest turnovers you've ever seen because they just can't stop doing it. The fact that Josh Allen got away with that flip to save the safety, which I'm still not sure why that wasn't intentional grounding, That was classic Josh Allen of like, oh, the devil on his shoulder is still there, and he's getting louder. And

Matthew Stafford also throwing like two bad picks in the first half of that Eagles game. One of them is going to have a really bad turnover, and that's probably going to determine who wins and who loses. I just don't know which one is going to do it, or maybe they're both going to do it, which one's going to do it twice, but it's going to happen. I chose Buffalo, but... Honestly, I flipped a coin, if I'm being real about it. I literally flipped a coin for this one. I don't have a great reason, because both these teams are very similar in terms of their strengths and of their weaknesses. I put it in the three spot just because I felt even less confident about New England and Minnesota, but I... it's about as close to

a toss-up as it gets. There we go.

10 games in very different orders with very different winners, it feels like, at least compared to the last couple of weeks. So this is going to be a fun one to monitor. I hope you guys enjoy all of these games and some of the ones that we didn't mention as well. As we said at the top of the show, get in on the action as well. Give us your 10 game picks here. Give us the confidence in which you have with these games. We'll keep score and we'll shout you out. If you have a really good week, we'll shout you out at the top of the show. We went through a ton of stuff here on NFL Pro. We went through the entire quarterly report.

We took a look at some players that are under the radar, some teams that have been shining, and obviously brought it to some game picks as well. We appreciate you guys watching. We know this was a beast of a show. Shout out to everybody behind the scenes who puts it on for us. Everybody at NextGenStats who powers everything that we talk about here. Total team effort every single week, but man, for all the information that we threw at you guys, certainly this week as well.

So we appreciate all the help on this one. Appreciate you guys watching. We'll see you guys next time.

Thank you for listening to our Q1 quarterly report. Listen to NFL Pro on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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