West Over/Under Predictions | 2026-27 NBA Season Preview

0:06 Good morning, sweet world, and welcome to the No Dunks NBA podcast. It's Friday, October 9th, 2026. I'm J.E. Skeets here in the Classic Factory and alongside me, as always, Tass Millis.

0:18 NBA podcasters, this is for you.

0:20 Next to him, it's my top shot hot boy, Trey Kirby.

0:23 Ayo. Ayo.

0:24 And over yonder, making the magic happen, super producer, J.D.

0:27 Hello.

0:28 Hello, J.D. Shout out to everybody joining us live right now on YouTube. Hit the like button, subscribe for the new season, comment in the stream team, and play along with the polls that we'll have up throughout this episode. Podcast listeners, hit your boys with a five-star rating and review. And if anyone wants ad-free episodes of No Dunks, subscribe to our Substack page for just $ 5 a month. That link is in the show notes. It'll get the episodes directly emailed to you, as well as access to all of the other fun stuff that we write and put up over there. You had a throwback sort of post yesterday, taking us into the old loft, our old starter's office, I guess, if you want to call it an office.

1:09 It was fun to use a panoramic lens on my phone once and I was like, oh yeah, I gotta share this. I didn't know how comfortable you guys would be sharing a photo, but.

1:21 I just did it. It was totally fine. I scrubbed out everybody's laptop.

1:24 Yeah, what was on our laptops? I was more intrigued by that.

1:27 Your email account, JD's work email account on his.

1:32 Not a terrible work email.

1:33 I wasn't too concerned.

1:36 I mean, the personal email of Skeets, I was like, eh.

1:40 It's all different.

1:41 It wasn't porn? That's all we did up in that lot.

1:46 Soft variety.

1:48 We're all good.

1:49 On today's podcast, we're debating the over-under picks for the Western Conference teams. If you missed Wednesday's show, we already did the East. So that is in your feeds on YouTube and wherever you download and listen to the show, be it Apple, Spotify, wherever. So go check out. the East over Unders. We actually clipped out every team too.

2:09 So that's also up on YouTube. If you just want to see us talk about your squad and see where we fell with that one, but we're into the West here. We'll start in the Northwest division. We got the Nuggets. We got the Wolves. We got the Thunder. So some great teams, the Blazers and the Jazz. This was, you know, pretty stacked division here. Some of these numbers, by the way, have changed a little bit. I'll point them out when we go through team by team, but The Denver Nuggets, 54-28 last year. They lost in the first round to Minnesota.

2:36 Best offense in the league, 21st defensively, 47.5 wins. Now, I think this number has jumped again to 48.5 when I last checked, but they add DeMar DeRozan, Marvin Bagley III. Lonnie Walker, the fourth.

2:50 Wow. I know.

2:51 We need a V out there.

2:53 Yeah. Has A.C.

2:54 Law had a son yet?

2:55 Right, right. The key subtractions, though, Peyton Watson out, Tim Hardaway Jr. out, and I'm sorry, your package is not going to be delivered. Jonas Valanciunas no longer there. But the number is lower, Tass. So 47.5, 48.5. Okay, we'll just go with 47.5. What do you lean in here, over or under for Denver?

3:14 Definitely an over.

3:14 Over.

3:15 The last time Nikola Jokic led a team that won less than 47 games in a full season was 17-18.

3:23 That was forever ago.

3:25 Now, there's a couple of shortened seasons in there where they don't quite get to that, but those are also a 46 and a 47 win season. I don't know how you go under on this with him being out there. And winning 54 games last year in his, the first time he had an extended injury in his NBA career. And they still got to that total with Jamal Murray having his best season. Now there's questions beyond that. Of course, Peyton Watson leaving, I called them, I called him their third most important player. And I still buy that because Aaron Gordon has played an average of 43 and a half games if you combine the last two seasons.

4:00 So beyond that, there are questions.

4:02 I think this season really is on Cam, Cam, Cam, Cam, Cam and Christian.

4:06 Yeah, I'm saying Bob, Bob, Bob, Bob, Bob, Brian.

4:09 Wow. I would have not have gotten there.

4:12 I didn't go there.

4:14 At first I was going to use Aaron, Cam and Aaron, Cam, Cam, Cam, Cam, Cam and Aaron.

4:19 But then I went with Cam, Cam and Christian. It doesn't roll as well.

4:22 I'd love to hear about the process.

4:23 Yeah, you're welcome.

4:26 Those guys are important as the four and five options in your starting offense for sure. Is Christian Brown going to have a bounce back season to show that his five-year contract was worth it. Is Cam Johnson going to have a better year than his first year with Denver?

4:41 Maybe.

4:41 And you mentioned all the fours, you know, your Marvin Bagley's and all that, all those guys that have those nicknames. And I'm concerned a little bit about the bench. There's no doubt DeMar DeRozan leading a bench with guys who will make you work. There's an Alpha Diallo coming from Europe. There's a Spencer Jones there who's going to make you work.

4:59 And then your Tynes Jones, your Marvin Bagley's, they're taking another flyer on Lonnie Walker and Cam Whitmore.

5:04 A lot of depth questions. I just can't bet against Jokic. I just can't.

5:10 And I think those other guys are here for their last iteration of this team, it feels like. This feels like, okay, if we can't do it, then we got to break it up. And I buy that they're going to win 48 games at the very least.

5:25 I'm with you because I... feel very similar I'm like I look at this Nuggets team I'm like you're five players deep really but then I remember oh yeah DeMar DeRozan is here you worry about the health but like you said last year Jamal Murray was basically the only healthy guy for the Nuggets played 77 games but 65 for Jokic Cam Johnson 54 Brown played 44 and Aaron Gordon played 36 so I'm like They had poor health last year and still got to 54 wins. Jokic is just such a special player that they're going to be one of the three best offenses in the league as long as he doesn't miss 40 plus games, which hasn't happened yet. You know, it was a banged up season for him last year and still got to 65. I'm

6:03 not crazy about their playoff prognostication, but that doesn't matter right now. We're talking about regular season wins. I think they can get to 50 wins and they still do have the potential to improve their team. going forward. The Cam Johnson contract, they've got the unprotected pick from the Cleveland Cavaliers, which is way down the line. If they wanted to, they could package those and bring in somebody to help at the top of the lineup. So I'm going to go over on the Nuggets as well.

6:28 The Nuggets have won at least 50 games in four straight seasons, including the 54 last year. Despite all these constant lineup changes, some injuries, like you said, all we're getting at here is as long as Jokic is playing and healthy enough... they should remain one of the best teams in at least the regular season in the Western Conference.

6:43 And it feels like, yeah, 48 wins is like the minimum. I mean, this is probably more of a 50-win, low 50-win team again. And yeah, you're hoping Aaron Gordon is a little more healthier. Sure. And that some of these guys have bounce-back years, be it Brown and or Cam Johnson, for sure. DeRozan's fascinating. I mean, it makes sense on paper, him sort of leading a second unit as another sort of ball handler and creator. He has a bigger sort of guard. So Yeah, I like it. But yeah, it's just whether or not Jokic plays. And he does. He's there to hit the over. I'm with you guys, by the way. I'm going over as well. I thought the number was a little too low.

7:18 That's the questionable part. Why is it so low? Just because people don't have faith because of the way they got bounced in the first round against Minnesota. Jokic had a bad playoff series.

7:31 Rudy Gobert. Rudy was on him.

7:34 Again, I think this is the last iteration of the team where they're kind of like, this is their last dance. And I think Jamal Murray has the number two option is an important part here coming off his best season last year.

7:43 That was his best season. His first all-star appearance. Like they should be really, really good up top. It's the depth. Yeah. Yeah.

7:50 With all these guys, I think Cam Johnson has to be better. I just, he can't be worse in my opinion.

7:56 I thought he figured it out as the season went on. I thought he was actually pretty decent in the playoffs, but I'm looking at year two. He'll be even better with these guys.

8:04 I'm wondering if this line jumped from the 47.5 to 48.5 after Jokic's behind-the-back pass in preseason where he threw a baseline pass three guys to Cam Johnson, who I think was the recipient of that three-pointer.

8:16 That's one of the most pressure-packed preseason shots there's ever been. You can't miss that.

8:20 Oh, I agree with that.

8:21 You better make this.

8:23 And he knocked it down. I mean, it was literally put in the perfect spot despite chucking it behind his back, baseline under the rim, pass three guys.

8:30 It was hilarious seeing the Rockets practicing that.

8:33 Yeah, Shen Goon was trying it and I thought failing pretty miserably.

8:37 Yeah, when you said right in the pocket, that's what I thought of Alper and Shen Goon because it wasn't in the pocket when he was passing it.

8:43 Okay, so we're all taking Denver over our line 47 and a half. Again, this has ticked up a little bit. We have a poll going for each of these. Where are the people? I'm going to assume they're also on the over here.

8:54 The people are over. Yeah. 69% say nice job by the Nuggets.

8:58 Who is the biggest X factor to you, Trey, on this Denver Nuggets team this year in terms of obviously having some success?

9:05 I mean, regular season, Jokic.

9:06 Okay.

9:07 If he's healthy, yeah. If he's healthy, they win 50 games, I think.

9:10 Okay.

9:11 I don't think they have an X factor during the regular season.

9:13 No?

9:14 No. Like, they have a great starting lineup. We all know about it. Yeah.

9:19 And like you said, it's an elite offense when they're out there.

9:21 Yeah.

9:21 And they ended 54-28. It wasn't a bad season. And it feels like Jokic was out for a long time. But as you said, it was 65 games.

9:28 That he played.

9:28 It wasn't like he was out for months. But this was his first real extended injury of his career. So that's what matters. This was the best offense in the NBA last year. But again, I think Cam Johnson in that trade for when Michael Porter Jr. went to Brooklyn for him, he was a much better player in Brooklyn as that number one guy. So he should be way more comfortable being the number three guy. So him and Christian Brown, who had his worst season of his young career those two got to bounce back.

10:01 Yeah, I agree. If I had to pick a secondary... sort of x factor to me it is cam johnson because he had like a very low usage percentage when he comes over to denver compared to his next days and just even the three-point shots i think he's got to get more of them up that'd be good because now you take you lose tim hardaway jr who obviously that's all he does yeah you swap him in for derosen he doesn't do that so you'd like to see a little more uh three-point shooting you know he's not brutal so i think he needs to up the uh attempts per game even.

10:27 Yeah yeah what do you think cam johnson shot from three last year Down season where everybody's saying, what do you think he shot from three?

10:32 I bet the percentage is good, but he only took like four a game or something like that. 43%.

10:36 Yeah.

10:37 He needs to take more. I think.

10:39 Yeah, but how many shots can he possibly get? Jokic and Murray have the ball the whole time.

10:46 Yeah. Yeah.

10:48 But in Brooklyn, he was driving more. It wasn't just sitting out there and shooting threes. And he's playing with injured guys in Aaron Gordon. He's got the ability, as I said, with the corny line a couple months ago. less podcasting, more penetrating. He should be able to drive way more. And it was what? He only played 55 games, I think. So it was a shortened season for him.

11:10 But they're going to go real deep. David Adelman said we're going 10 deep on this roster. And I named so many guys. I named seven guys coming off the bench that really have to replace what their best bench was in the last several years. Remember when Jokic went to the bench, they stunk. But last year it was way better. But these guys are all questionable guys. They're taking flyers on so many guys like Lonnie Walker and Cam Whitmore and Alpha Diallo.

11:35 Great name. But they are led by DeMar DeRozan.

11:39 Their bench lost last year, right? They were negative. And I think they'll still be negative this year. But they've got a great starting lineup.

11:46 So they should win.

11:47 Everybody's over. All three of us here and the people. What did you say?

11:50 69%.

11:50 Very, very nice. Okay, let's go to the Minnesota Timberwolves who bounced the Nuggets out of the playoffs last year. They eventually lost to the Spurs in the second round. 49-33 for Minnesota. So their over-under this year is, well, the same as Denver. 47.5 wins. They bring in LaMelo Ball, Jonathan Kaminga, Cody Williams is on the Wolves, Kep Dio, Bones, Jalen Clark, but Julius Randle and Nas Reed out the door.

12:17 So a lot of size going out, TK, but 47.5 wins. Where are you going with Minnesota?

12:22 I think this is my number one league pass team. This year, Ant and Lamella together, Jonathan Kaminga running the court, Duncan, they've just completely zigged on their team. They were a big ball team for a long time, basically since Rudy Gobert showed up, whether it be towns or Randall next to him. And now they're going for speed and shooting.

12:43 It's going to be interesting to see, but the biggest question for me is what if Lomelo ball misses a lot of time again this season, he played 72 games last year.

12:51 Awesome.

12:51 He played 105 in the previous three games. I think there's also a lot of variance on this team because Lomelo and Ant should both take like 10 or more threes per game. And they're both very good shooters. I think it's going to be interesting to watch Ant not have to create for his teammates anymore. He's I'm pretty excited that he just needs to go out there and get buckets. He's a great bucket getter. I've talked a lot about Yohan Baron J. It's going to be fun.

13:14 I'm not crazy about this team's depth. I think it would help them a lot if Dante DiVincenzo is able to get back on the court. He says he plans to play this year. Who knows how early that happens and who knows what he's even able to give them. I'm excited for the Timberwolves, but I do think they go under. Just too many concerns for me with regards to if Lomelo misses a chunk of time, if Gobert misses a chunk of time. Those are major absences for them.

13:41 I'm surprised you're going under because.

13:44 I also went under, and a lot of it is just the questions, like you said. The depth, even in the front court, is a huge question. You lose Julius Randle, who was an innings eater for them. He played 79 games for them last year, and.

13:54 He played it well.

13:55 You lose Nas Reed, who was in there to play a ton. And, you know, he kind of was their motor for that team. And your placing with Jonathan Kaminga is probably going to start at the power forward spot. A guy who has been given up by... Steve Kerr, essentially. Quinn Snyder in Atlanta now. We'll see what Chris Finch can do for him. But yeah, they locked up there.

14:16 And Johan Berenger, of course, exciting stuff. But he also can't play the four. He's got to play behind Rudy Gobert. And so there's that issue. And he's a kid. And so then the guards are also a depth issue. As you said, Dante DiVincenzo. And he got injured in the playoffs. So timeline-wise, he ain't coming back until well into 2027.

14:35 He played 82 games for this team. And he got LaMelo Ball playing coming off his great season when they limited his minutes. And that helped a lot, I think, as far as how many minutes he played. But he averaged 35 games the three years before that. And then otherwise, their depth is a question. Bones Highland is going to be playing. Terrence Shannon Jr. is going to be playing.

14:54 Jalen Clark's going to be playing. And Baron Jay again. So I saw this line jumping around too. It was 47, 48 and a half. But it's dropped for a reason, I think. People are on the under. And I'm jumping on it too, even though it's like when this team is questioned every single year, In the playoffs, they always perform, and I'll question them now.

15:11 They could do the same sort of thing.

15:14 This was one of the more difficult ones for me to figure out whether I was going to go over or under. I've got to say I'm a little shocked that you guys are both going under because I am too, and now I really don't feel comfortable about all three of us doing that, but it's just such a strategic shift.

15:27 They're like, it's a gamble here. And like, it's fascinating. And Tim Connolly, man, this guy's got some balls on him. He's like, all right, we're going to completely switch this up. And I think there was this idea of Randall. Wasn't the, uh, the most fun guy to be around maybe in the locker room. These are, you know, reading into the tea leaves from what we're hearing and not hearing from your shirt off on a golf course. Yeah, I know. What the hell, man? Tarps off, man. I just hit a hole in one. Um, but yeah, you know, what a, what a drastic like shift, like, you know, Randall out, Nas read out and like, here we go. LaMelo time.

15:56 And I think it's going to be fun as hell. And like right now, preseason, like they look like they're having a blast and you get some more youth injection there and some of these other guys, but I'm going just under here. Like this isn't, this isn't a play in team by any means to me. It's like more in the middle of the pack of the West. I think it could take a little time here, some growing pains to, to find their footing a little bit. So I'm, I'm under 47 and a half too.

16:19 And I question the depth and the guards, but I would assume it's going.

16:22 To be awesome. Yeah. Because he should be awesome.

16:24 Six-man candidate for sure.

16:25 Yeah.

16:26 And so I.

16:27 Think it's more the questions of LaMelo playing and the Jonathan Kaminga factor and how he connects with everybody as he hasn't been able to do that the last couple of years. And Nasreed was that perfect sort of in-between type of guy. And I don't buy the Julius Randle. Was that bad for their locker room? They got too deep into the playoffs a couple times with them. Or, you know, the second time that they got deep into the playoffs and they won a playoff series with them last year. But the other guys are questions. There's too many questions, and that's why I guess we're all going under, really.

17:02 All right, what do the people think here on the stream team? Where are they leaning?

17:04 They think we're clowns. 62% are saying over for the Timberwolves.

17:09 Like I said, I was shocked we were all going under. So we got some believers out there. Vibes alone.

17:14 Vibes alone. I think Lomelo and Ant have some sort of DeRozan-Lowry vibes. They look like they've been best friends for their entire lives.

17:23 That's a good way to put it.

17:23 And they just met. I mean, not just met, but just became teammates at least.

17:27 And those Raptors teams won a lot of regular season games.

17:30 They did.

17:30 They had some regular season success before making the big trade for Kawhi. Yeah, we could 100% be wrong. Anthony Edwards, like you said, moving off ball, seemingly wanting to do that. He's only gotten better every single year he's been in the league. His scoring just goes up, up, up. His efficiency goes up, up, up. So why doesn't that continue as he starts to get into his prime? He's like, what, 25 years old, 26 years old? So with LaMelo there, like, yeah.

17:55 I mean, offensively. Now, defensively, I mean, you better pray there's no real go-bear injury. Yeah, a bear injury can maybe slot in, but he's also so young, picks up three fouls just like that. And then it's like... Who the hell is playing then as a big? Like, Kaminga's your four, but it gets real shallow quick.

18:14 I guess they go Jaden McDaniels and size up a little bit. But yeah, we'll see how Anthony Edwards will change this year. Having a ball handler beside him, and he says, now I can play defense because I don't have to spend as much energy on the offensive end.

18:27 And maybe he's just healthier.

18:28 I mean, he did miss a decent chunk of games last year, even though he's a guy who never misses time. You know, he only played 65 last year, or 61 last year, excuse me. after playing you know most games of his entire career so the guy who walked off the court in that first round playoff series excuse me the second round playoff series against san antonio i think is happier and that's why tim connelly said all right we'll make this guy happy let's go get lamella ball change it up and he's happy.

18:54 All right we'll see if we're uh we're fools when it comes to the the wolves over under there OKC, 64-18 last year. They lost in the Western Conference Finals, also to the Spurs. Offensive rating was 7th. They had the best defense in the league. This line, 61.5. It's actually dropped a little bit. It was 62.5. They got Ade Mara as their number 12 pick. He's looked really good in preseason here. But the key subtractions, Tass, are Lou Dort, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins. I think I heard...

19:25 podcasts say like they lost one third of their three-pointers made last year in some of those guys going out now they have other guys that they're replenishing and obviously the j-dub factor should be back and healthy and he can play and shoot as well but you know it's a high number here still but they're a damn good team 61 and a half where you.

19:41 Going i'm going over i honestly think they're better even though they lose a starter and lou Dort and rotation guys and Isaiah Jones Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins you're getting more Cason Wallace you're getting more Jared McCain and you're getting more AJ Mitchell I think these guys are very very comfortable I think you're going to see more Shea off the ball this year because it's going to be on those guys and And they saw Shea was a little gassed in the postseason, and I think those guys are very, very capable of stepping up. I know it sounds really, really weird to say they got better after a few of their rotation subtractions, but I honestly think they did, and Shea will benefit from that, and

20:21 they're going to fly through that 61.5 mark.

20:25 Adai Mara is really, really fun.

20:26 To watch too. I mean, a rookie that they're trusting. I know it's just preseason, but they're, they're giving the ball to, and he's good. He does look like pal with the ball fakes in the post. He definitely, maybe because it's the Spaniard thing, but he looks like him and he's just good.

20:39 He's passing.

20:40 Yeah. Instant chemistry. I thought with some of those starters.

20:43 They're good. I think, honestly, I think they're better. I know it sounds weird, but. I'm taking the over.

20:47 OKC has averaged 63 wins per season over the last three years. So it's not crazy to go another over.

20:52 Yep.

20:52 TK, what do you think?

20:53 Highest number on the board. I think they got worse. I mean, I think that the Dort absence is going to matter. Like he brought an attitude and a tone to the team. I think Isaiah Joe was kind of their quickest trigger as a three point shooter. And Wiggins was like in and out of the rotation. You know, he had a 40 point game and then he barely played comparatively last year. So I don't know that they're better, but I also think the Western Conference is definitely worse.

21:17 And I just overthought this one. Like you said at the end of our Eastern Conference show, which is how do you think the West is? I hadn't done my prep yet. West is way harder. I thought the West was way, way harder to decide. I had four like that. I woke up this morning. I was like, I don't know. I slept on it. Here's what I'm feeling. And it just came down to guess what? Even though the Thunder lost three of their rotation guys, they're still going to be awesome. Their bench is still going to be sick.

21:38 They're going to have two guys who are six man of the year candidates in A.J. Mitchell and Jared McCain. if Mara gets hurt, guess what? They're bringing back another first round center draft pick in Thomas Sorber.

21:48 He's there.

21:48 Nikola Topic. He was a guy that had some buzz around him. Hasn't been able to establish himself in the NBA due to a bunch of injuries. So, I'm also over on the Thunder, even though I don't necessarily think this team is as good as they were last year. And Skeets, I got to tell you, this picture of Chet Holmgren is freaking me out, man. I did it on purpose. Every time I look at Tass, it feels like Chet Holmgren is looking right at me. So I can't go under on his team.

22:11 I was hoping somebody was going to note that because I was like, why not? I'm going to put a giant Chet head on this board.

22:16 Yeah, that's a big old Chet head.

22:17 Yeah, those wispy hairs coming out right on his forehead. I mean, yeah.

22:21 I also really like, I don't know, JD, if you want to go full screen to it, if you can. Look at his eye level. He's got like one eye that's way lower than the other.

22:30 Am I crazy? Yeah, he's got a Kerry Kittle sock size. One up, one down. He's smoldering though here.

22:35 He is smoldering.

22:37 Is it a bounce back year for him?

22:39 A bounce back from when he was all NBA and finished second defensive player of the year voting? No, he just means bounce back when he.

22:44 Plays Wenbin Yaba.

22:45 That's it.

22:46 That's all that's going to matter.

22:48 It's like a Jalen Duren. He was awesome in the regular season, and then the playoffs happened. But there's a reason they went and got Adai Mara in the draft. And Thomas Sorber, who's.

22:58 6'9, but 250. He's big.

22:59 Big boy.

23:00 So they're going to throw guys that way.

23:01 So you guys are both going over here. So you're saying 62-plus wins so that they continue with this streak. OKC became just the third NBA team since 98 to capture the top seed in a conference three consecutive seasons. So there's that little run going. But I'm actually going to go just under. So, you know, this was one I went back and forth again on. But I think they will do a little bit more of leaning into trying to see some meaningful, like, youth development. Some of those guys you listed there. And maybe it's not, like, balls to the wall, regular season. You know, even, like, a guy like Shea. And so, like, try and rest some of these guys up a little bit more. So, I'll go just under. But that backfired on me last

23:40 year because I did the same thing. and they won 64 games. So I could be wrong again, but I'm going to double down on it that they'll win 60 or 61 games. I actually think the Spurs are going to be the number one seed in the conference this year.

23:53 I just think Shea is going to benefit from A.J. Mitchell taking more reps, Cason Wallace wanting to get that extension because he's that good. And, you know, the depth and all that is a little bit of a concern, but I don't know. Daimara looks strong. He can handle a bump. And so the attitude has come back. There's dependence on Alex Caruso playing a ton of minutes with Lou Dort-Gong.

24:16 So that is a worry. But I still believe in this team.

24:20 Let's not forget Bennett Sturtz.

24:21 Bennett Sturtz.

24:22 Such a great name. A number 16 pick. Will he get a little opportunity? They got a lot of guys that they could give an opportunity here. And yeah, if there's an injury or two, they'll get some minutes. So what do the people think? OKC, 61 and a half.

24:33 Tight one, 52% say over.

24:36 Oh, very tight. Okay. Okay. Very tight. Very tight. Good stuff. All right. Our fourth team in the division, the Portland Trailblazers. 42 and 40 last year. Really surprisingly good year. Lost in the first round, again, to the Spurs. Offensively, 20th in the league. Defensively, better. Above average, just 14th. They're over and under.

24:59 I mean, really?

24:59 It's their record last year, TK. It's 41 and a half. Do you believe the Blazers can replicate what they did? They add Ja Morant and they lose Jeremy Grant, Chris Murray, Matisse Theibel of note here. They retained Robert Williams III. So Time Lord is back there. I guess Jeremy Sohan is there too. But what do you think? New coach in Mike Inori with the Blazers.

25:21 New coach. Third coach in less than a year for the Portland Trail Blazers. Chauncey was there for one game. I think they have the talent to go over, but I just don't know if the team makes sense. In my house, jars and Allen wrenches just duplicate.

25:37 Okay, yeah.

25:37 You can't get rid of these things. There's so many of them. It's the same with the guards and the Portland Trailblazers. What if we built the whole team out of guards, they said. I don't know. They don't have a lot of depth in other places. I wonder how having Damian Lillard return to the lineup, bringing in John Morant, how does that affect a guy like Denny Obdia, who was their main creator last year, had the ball a ton.

25:57 Drew Holiday, where does he fit in? Now he's a small forward, apparently. If Obdia goes down, if Tumani Kamara goes down, we're talking about CeeDee Sissoko starting games. They've got some good picks deep in their coffers if they want to try and make a move later during the team during the season to try and beef up. But I'm going under. I just think the team is a little bit too weird. And I'm rooting for John Morant to have a bounce back season. But I don't know if the bounce is there because he looks a little more ground bound than we've ever seen him before.

26:31 You mean in preseason? Yes.

26:33 Yes.

26:34 Yeah.

26:35 Yeah, and the worrisome thing is he's missed a lot of games, and he could happen again. Well, put this guard log jam into my veins, man. I'm just excited for this team and how it all works, and I do believe in Mike Inori, who's been talked about as a guy getting a head coaching job forever, and the fact that his guys will buy in to moving the ball, the dribble handoffs, the penetration. I think Denny is going to, benefit from that because there's going to be space created because Dame and because of John Moran and his speed when he's playing, hopefully. So I like all that under Mike and Nori. You know, I start to question the defense at times, but with Kling and Kamara drew out there, I think Denny's a good defender as well, especially with

27:24 a little bit of his offensive roles taken.

27:26 Limited a little bit. And Robert Williams, they've got a lot.

27:29 Of guys that got rebounding and good rim protection and, It's just, well, they all connect. And I'm buying it. I've been watching those highlights as well. From those opening minutes, it feels like they're driving and kicking. They're moving the ball. So I'm buying the Mike Inori connection, even though there could be a cloud hanging over this team the entire season with ownership, the whole arena. debacle the broadcasters are changing they're hiring they're firing all of a sudden so it's a weird scenario there in portland but on the court with the coach i'm buying him.

28:02 And it looks like they are going to start damian lillard with john morant yeah and then uh obviously bring off uh drew holly off the bench and scoot henderson i guess off the bench maybe that is a guy that's potentially moved at some point i don't know there's just so many of them uh that you look to move scoot but I'm going over. I'm with you, Tass.

28:20 Just over. I know I've said this, it feels like two times already, but to me, toughest line. This one, because I think I really, I know I'm getting tricked into like wanting to believe in John Morant, but then you said it, TK, like, okay, like maybe even gets the explosiveness back a little bit, but like also if he's out there with Dame, like Dame can play off ball, but Dame also likes to have the ball in his hands and should have it in his hands because he's a threat anywhere on the floor as soon as he crosses half court. So what's Ja Morant doing in that situation?

28:47 And then there's Denny.

28:49 And then there's Denny. But I like the idea, like you said, Denny asked maybe not to do as much offensively, get back to focusing a little bit more on the defensive end. And him and Kamara, and Klingit, that's pretty good.

29:00 Very good.

29:01 So I'm going just over. I'm just believing. I want to see this weird experiment work here.

29:07 Yeah, and if one of those guys gets injured in the backcourt, whether it's Ja... or Damian Lillard, or they trade Scoot. Like, Drew Holiday is a plug-and-play guy, too.

29:15 Of course, yeah.

29:16 I mean, he said to Mike Inori when they first met, when Mike Inori was hired, he said, if I was on your teams in Minnesota, any one of those teams, we win a championship.

29:27 He's a guy that has earned being able to say that, having been the finishing piece for two championship teams.

29:31 Yeah, he's proven that.

29:32 Exactly, yeah. Sort of believe it. Yeah, sort of believe it, too.

29:34 So I think the locker room's in a good place right now. John Morant playing for his NBA career, really, you know. like for a long-term contract.

29:42 I'm buying it. I'm buying it. But this was a hard over-under for sure.

29:46 Yeah, I don't think anyone, I don't want, it doesn't feel like anyone's going to be locking this one in when we get to our locks at the end. But what do the people think with the Blazers 41 and a half?

29:55 Oh, under 57%.

29:56 Okay.

29:56 From the peeps.

29:57 Okay. Hmm. Under 41 and a half, so a little bit of a step back.

30:01 Not a lot of John Morant believers out there right now.

30:03 No, and it's weird. It's a weird roster as we're going through here. Okay, final team in the division, the Utah Jazz. 22 and 60 last year. Missed the playoffs. They were very bad on the defensive end. A little bit better offensively, 22nd in the league. But they're over under here. It's a hell of a jump. 37 and a half wins. They got the number two pick in Darren Peterson. Who's there? Josh Okoji, Josh Green. Jackson Hayes, if your name starts with a J, you're now on this team. Kept Yusuf Nurkic, but he's injured, so he's going to be out for at least four or five weeks, I think. But Walker Kessler gone is the main guy.

30:39 So TK, Utah Jazz, everyone's like, now they're going to try. They're going to try and win games.

30:45 Probably for the whole season.

30:46 Probably for the whole season. Will that be enough to get over the 37.5 win mark to you?

30:49 That's a great question. They have 39 wins combined in their last two seasons, and now you're telling me they need to get to 38? This might be an NTH question. Number two high.

30:59 Oh, an NTH are dropping on us.

31:02 It might be. Who's their best player?

31:04 Probably.

31:05 Ooh. Well, right. Probably Lowry Markkinen, but.

31:08 Oh, okay.

31:09 Yeah.

31:09 I was, I was going to say Jared Jackson Jr.

31:11 Oh, okay.

31:12 Different guys.

31:13 He's, I mean, he's made all NBA teams and won awards and.

31:16 I'm taking Larry Markkinen and Keontae George over Jaron Jackson Jr.

31:19 I would have to see them play a playoff game before considering them the best player for a team. Anyways, the best Jaron Jackson Jr. teams, when he's been their best player, have gone under 30 wins. That's not encouraging to me, though I like the depth with the Jazz. I'm excited to watch them. This is clearly going to be their best team since Mitchell and Gobert were together.

31:37 But I don't know. It just seems like the number is a little bit too high for me.

31:41 Right.

31:41 If this was 33 and a half, 32 and a half, you're probably.

31:44 Like, I think there are about 35 wins. And I think that's a great season for them. I think, you know, if things break perfectly, they could win over 41 games. I think they could be a 500 team if, you know, Keontae George proves that what he did last season was real. If Markkinen and Jackson are able to stay on the court together. if it actually works, putting three seven-footers out there, though it's crazy. How can a team have two seven-footers and both of them aren't centers? How is that possible?

32:10 What has happened to the NBA that seven-footers don't want to rebound? They also don't have anybody, really, that passes the ball. I think that's a concern to me, though the Will Hardy system encourages passing, but I'm like, none of these guys are natural playmakers outside of Isaiah Collier, who all he wants to do is pass. But I'm excited for this team. I think they'll be fun to watch this year, and I think they will at least...

32:32 be in the mix for a play-in spot, if not better.

32:35 I'm with you. Excited to watch.

32:37 They could outscore people, but I don't think they're defending anybody, especially with this Yusuf Nurkic injury as well. I mean, that bumps up Jaron Jackson Jr. probably to more center minutes and Larry Markin to more power forward minutes. And Keontae George was not a good defender at the point guard spot.

32:55 So you can score on this team.

32:58 And I think that's going to happen again, whether 29th in defense last year, And I think it's going to be a little better.

33:05 Some track meets with this team?

33:06 Yeah. It'll be fun to watch again. League pass, baby. Light it up.

33:10 Darren Peterson, he could be a rookie there in terms of points scored. He's going to score a lot. Ace Bailey's going to score a lot. But at the same time, I don't think they're ready for 38 wins. I think there's going to be a lot of professionalism coming from Jaron Jackson Jr. There's going to be some chemistry. This guy's all went to Finland to hang out with Lowry Markkinen, with Will Hardy, and they're all hanging in the summer.

33:31 So I think there will be professionalism. But again, West is tough.

33:34 The division we've just gone through with Chet Holmgren, you know, luring over my shoulder here. All five of those teams, I mean, there could be 500 teams or above. So it's a tough, tough division. And the Nurkic thing, I know it's Nurkic and Jaron Jackson Jr. is a leader and you got a Jackson Hayes, but here comes a Flipowski coming off the bench too. But I mean, I think that matters, being out for a while just to have a steady guy. Jaron Jackson Jr. is much more of a four, as you said, Trey, a seven-footer who's not a five, really.

34:07 So I think that matters.

34:08 And it's not a good start to this season where he's out for a month with a partial planter plate tear of his second tone, his right foot.

34:16 I didn't know that existed.

34:17 Damn.

34:18 I thought it was all plantar fasciitis on your foot, but you can get it in your second toe. It's always your second toe. I was looking at feet this morning on my computer. Staring at feet. I wake up and I'm looking at feet. It wasn't fun.

34:29 Either way, I think that's a bad start. You've got to be 500.

34:31 Rex Ryan over here.

34:34 That second toe over the big toe. Now the images are coming back to my brain. You've got to be 500 that month to start without him. Not a good start in the Western Conference.

34:44 But I saw Bleacher report, right? Choosing the over depends on the belief that the Utah Jazz have been playing with one hand tied behind their back for the last several years, right? So giving away games because they've just been trying to improve their lottery position. So I keep coming back to that. They're actively going to be trying to win here for the first time since probably like the Gobert Donovan Mitchell days. So I get excited for that. And, you know, it worked out. They got Darren Peterson, number two pick, who looks good. It could be an explosive score in this league right away, especially him and Keontae George.

35:16 That could be one of these backcourts where suddenly people are going like, where do they rank among the best backcourts, young backcourts, sort of in the league? So for all this, I'm going over. I'm just going over. I get why you're leaning under and you're like, you're more in the 35-36, but I think if it all breaks right here, there's some scoring punch on this team. Defensively, issues, but You know, it's the regular season. A lot of teams come into Utah like, hey, what are we doing? Are we just not playing defense tonight? All right, let's have a running gun type of game. And you can win a bunch of games like that. So I'll say 38. I'll get them just there.

35:50 I hate to go deep into the weeds here, but as far as divisions go in NBA history, have there ever been five teams in one division that got to 500 or over?

35:59 Because we're talking close here. Probably not.

36:01 You don't think so? I think maybe once. Maybe.

36:04 Yeah, maybe.

36:06 It's possible.

36:07 It's possible.

36:08 Very rare.

36:09 Yeah, especially with the top of this division, we're talking Thunder way at the top and then some really good teams.

36:16 I don't need the Jazz to even be 500, though. That's true. I just need 38 wins.

36:21 This is a good line.

36:21 We need a play-in push here, obviously, down to the final couple weeks. So I'll go over. You guys are both going under, right, on the Utah Jazz?

36:28 Yeah.

36:28 What did the peeps say in the stream team?

36:31 52% say over.

36:32 Ooh, that's a tight one too.

36:33 He's a tight one.

36:34 That's a tough division, man, going through those squads. I can see why you were tossing and turning last night.

36:39 I couldn't sleep, man. I could not. During the 17-18 season, the Northwest Division became the first and only division to have every single team finish with a winning record.

36:48 It was this division.

36:50 The Nuggets were the worst team in the division, and they went 46-36.

36:52 Whoa.

36:52 That's crazy.

36:55 17-18.

36:55 Oh, that was the last year I was referring to a Nikola Jokic team with 46 wins.

37:00 What are the odds?

37:01 And that was the only time that five teams ended. Wow.

37:05 Okay.

37:05 All right.

37:06 To the Pacific Division we go. There it is. I put Steph Curry golfing. Why not? We got the Warriors, the Clips, the Lakers, the Suns, and the Kings. Now, you will notice here these numbers are a lot lower overall than our Northwest division. I got the Lakers leading the way at 44.5, but we'll get to them. Let's start with the Warriors. 42-40 last year. Lost in the play-in tournament to Phoenix. Pretty average on both sides of the ball. Over-under, 37.5 wins this year. Now, it started.

37:36 At 38 and a half. I think it's a drop now to 36 and a half. So this one's all over the board here, Tass. They got Yaxel Lindenborg, their number 11 pick. He looks, you know, he's older, so he should be playing for this team and probably contributing. They got Brandon Williams, George Niang, your guy, the minivan, he pulled up. Quinton Post gone, Pat Spencer gone. And there are a bunch of injuries, of course, surrounding this team with Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody and, oh yeah, Chris Dapps Porzingis.

38:02 Hasn't shown up.

38:02 What's going on there? So, 37 and a half wins.

38:07 I was optimistic a few weeks ago, but at this point with how everything is going down, I'm going under. There's too many questions. When is Jimmy Butler coming back? I respect the guy's diligence and the way he will work. And I assumed that would make Robin, as he's calling himself, come back earlier. But still, even if you get back early 2027, that's over 30 games you're missing. So that doesn't bode well for their record. Kristaps Porzingis is not reported.

38:34 to training camp. He has not reported. They don't know what's going on. The unicorn is absent. That's a big concern for me. And Yaxa Lindenberg looks great. Here he, here he comes. How often do you hear in a training camp, we're asking him to score more, to, to go and drive more, not, not a lot. And I think that just says to everybody watching, this is clearly their second best player. And he's a rookie, even though he's an older rookie. And so that just, Doesn't bode well for me with such a young guy, even though he's awesome and he's huge and they're going to be starting a pretty big front line, him and Al Horford and Draymond Green, those three guys. But they're really going for him to say, hey, man, come and score and

39:16 don't be the guy that you are with, you know, the guy you want to be with all the assists and all that. So I like where they're going. They're moving off Draymond Green a lot, but I think this is just that transition year. Next year's the year.

39:28 I'm going under, yeah.

39:29 Okay.

39:29 Next year's the year.

39:30 Yeah. Okay.

39:32 We shall see. 46-win pace last year when Steph Curry played. He played 43 games, unfortunately, and all but nine of those games came before Jimmy got hurt. Jimmy's coming into the season hurt. Their next best starter, Porzingis, we'll see if he plays or when he plays. Draymond... Well, it's a little out of shape. So I think a massive load for Curry this year. And he's coming off of a season where he was battling runner's knee for like the last two months of the season. Surely he feels good now, but that's like a chronic condition that could easily flare back up. The NBA is a young man's league and even their rookie isn't a young man. This is an elderly team. I do think they are a good trade team. If you listen to Nick Friedel on

40:16 Zach Lowe's podcast, he was basically like, yeah, don't worry about the first two thirds of the season. They're going to make trades. I mean, we hear this about the Warriors literally every transaction cycle, but you also have to play the first two thirds of the season. And I don't know, they're just not a lot here after Steph Curry with Jimmy out. Maybe he comes back earlier than anticipated, but he's older as well coming off an injury. So I'm not very confident in the Warriors. I'm under as well.

40:41 I know.

40:41 It's a depressing under. I don't think anyone's wanted to take an under. I'm with you guys. I'm going under. I mean, you just said, like, there are three guys starting. Could be Curry, Draymond Green, and Al Horford. I mean, this is an old crew. And then Yaxel, an old rook, and what, Pojemski, I guess?

40:57 Yeah.

40:57 In there, who's due to reach restricted free agency next summer if they don't extend him here.

41:02 So.

41:03 obviously waiting to see that. I don't think they will, but yeah, they just did this thing where they were like, okay, we'll just wait. We'll opt for flexibility and stability. I guess if you want to call it that over any sort of larger shakeup around Steph Curry, at least heading into this season. And maybe they're just doing the old kick the can down the road a little bit. Maybe you get Jimmy Butler back from injury as the season goes on and see what you have then. And I guess if Nick Fidel is saying, baby, they make a big move, but I don't know, man. Like, yeah, it's just really comes down to how many games is Curry going to play. I don't think he's going Ironman 82.

41:33 So it's like it's probably somewhere between half the season and 65, I would think. Like we'll even hit a 65-game threshold to even be in an all-NBA conversation. I don't know at this point. The guy is up there in age too.

41:44 Yeah, and back a few weeks ago when I was optimistic, you hear things like Steph Curry said, I've managed my runner's knee pretty well now. I know how to deal with it and how to come off the bench and all that when I need to. But then Chris Epps doesn't show up. And it literally could be their second best player. It should be sort of kind of, uh, but he's not there anymore. And then, you know, dream on green, you know, air quotes doesn't look in shape, but at the same time, I like what they're doing apparently in training camp where he's not the guy starting the offense from the top all the time. So they're depending on other guys that are younger and more talented.

42:20 But again, that's the axle Lindenberg who good. But if he's your second best player at this point of his career, I think they will be maybe slowing it down for Steph and waiting until the trade deadline and hoping that Jimmy coming back in the 27, 28 year is their year. That's what I think the plan will probably be. Again, Jimmy Butler doesn't come back until January 1st. That's 32 games.

42:42 It's half your season almost.

42:43 Right. That's a terrible start.

42:45 Okay, so where do the people go with this one? The people say, ooh, 75% are going under.

42:48 Whoa. Yeah.

42:53 It's a pretty strong majority going under. Very heavy.

42:56 I guess that's why the number has dropped. You said it's dropped from 38.5 to 37.5.

43:01 Yeah, I think it's as low as 36.5 now. So it continues to go down, down, down. The Clippers also 42 and 40 last year, if I have that right. Yeah, they lost in the playing tournament to the Golden State Warriors. So that does make sense. I just had to remember. Yeah, that's right. They were 11th on offense, 18th defensively. 28.5 wins.

43:23 this line is also plummeting. Um, it was once at 30 and a half and, and I think it's dropped to 27 and a half. So for us, we'll go 28 and a half, uh, Rui Hachimura in Keaton Wagler, the number five pick, uh, Brandon Ingram and Grady Dick, but Ingram is injured and, uh, we'll be out for a little bit. Lost Kawhi Leonard, of course, and Batum and Bogdanovich and John Collins. So some shakeup here. What do you think TK? 28 and a half. Not very high, not very high at all. Um, But, you know, this is a different team, obviously.

43:53 Yeah.

43:53 Clippers are my foster team this year. Like, I want good things for these guys. I want them to find a good home. I feel sorry for their fans and I feel sorry for their players because they're the ones that are ultimately getting punished for the Kawhi Leonard scandal. And most of these guys weren't even on the team when Kawhi Leonard was getting signed. So I feel very sad for them. They got screwed and did nothing. Their best player is out with a partially torn Achilles. Max Struess is hurt as well. There are so many names you know on this team, which is why the line comes out at 30.5. But I don't think a majority of those names will be on this team at the end of the season. You throw in Garland, missing time

44:32 here and there as one of their couple best players. I don't think Keaton Wagler is going to have a huge impact this season as a rookie guard who primarily gets things done via feel. I think it'll take a little time for him to adjust. Ty Lue is a good coach. I feel like he extracts as many wins as possible out of his teams for the most part, so that's good. But I'm going under just because I think when we're looking at this team in March and April, we're going to be saying, who? There's going to be a lot of mystery men on this Clippers team eventually.

45:03 I don't know who's going to score on this team, really. Brandon Ingram, I think, is going to take some time with his partial league. torn Achilles that they found while they're doing the, the heel spur surgery. He's not playing for a contract. He's got a full year paid next year in 27, 28. So I think they slow him down.

45:20 Bradley Beal is on this team, but he already isn't playing in their five and fives, five on fives at all.

45:25 Max Drew's just got hurt. Brooke Lopez is very, very old.

45:27 Now, Darius Garland gets the ball. Maybe he makes some things happen. And Rui Atramura was a good off the ball complimentary guy last year with the Lakers.

45:36 Very, very good.

45:37 But beyond that, concern for their offense. I like Isaiah Jackson. I think he can be a running five for them. But yeah, the Keaton Wagler rookie experience with Brooke and Derek Jones Jr. and Chris Dunn, I don't think that's enough. Kobe Sanders is going to be good. He's going to score some, but I don't think they're going to beat teams.

45:53 I got the under in this game, this one.

45:55 I'm going way under. I'm thinking about a lock-in on this one. I think they could be maybe the worst team in the Western Conference because they also don't own their draft pick.

46:01 Worse than the Kangs?

46:03 Maybe. Maybe because like at least the Kangs are playing to get out of the relegation zone to keep their pick. The Clippers, does it not go to the Oklahoma City Thunder? No matter where it is. Yeah, that's one of those convoluted ones, but it's not them if I have that right. So yeah, I'm just all the reasons you guys went through.

46:20 I don't have a lot of faith. I think this will be, there's going to be a down year and a lot of it because of the Kawhi fallout. You know, maybe like Garland could put up numbers and really can score, but After that, it's like all these guys you went through injured. Isn't Yannick Conan Niederhauser, he's also injured too, right?

46:39 He is. That's a guy I'm excited about in this league, but he's got the, I think he had foot surgery. He'll be returning after foot surgery. So I'm going under 28 and a half, which isn't very high, but I'm going significantly under. What do the people think?

46:51 71% are under. Our guy Gigi Beno says under. If you said over, you're just being nice.

46:56 Oh, wow.

46:58 Hey, it's okay to be nice to the Clippers.

46:59 Yeah, I mean, they could really use it.

47:00 The players didn't do anything, man.

47:01 They could really use it.

47:02 It's not Keaton Wagler's fault.

47:04 No, it's not.

47:04 It's not Derek Jones Jr.

47:05 's fault, okay?

47:06 No. Don't hold it against him. Foster him.

47:10 Foster him.

47:10 Feed him a good meal. Right.

47:12 Give him a pet.

47:14 Yeah.

47:14 Put him behind their ears. Probably got some good food in the Intuit dome.

47:19 Probably so.

47:19 You know, they got some stuff.

47:21 But I think, again, Brandon Ingram coming off a great year where he was really, really healthy for the Toronto Raptors.

47:26 True. Very healthy. Because he was fighting through injuries. He was hurt late in the season.

47:30 We were debating that, I remember, at parts last year. Like, he maybe should be sitting down here a little bit as he was fighting through the injuries.

47:37 Yeah, and he was doing that his first year under contract, but now you're in this, the end to it, can't you just take a year off? It feels like they're going to take off some serious time for him. And he is clearly their best player who can score. So that's a bad start. And then you go sign Bradley Beal for what?

47:55 For what?

47:56 I mean, that's a weird one.

47:57 They give him too much money, and he's always been injured, always. He played six games last year. He's already injured right now. He's got knee inflammation, so I just don't know where their vets come from.

48:07 Before we move off the Clippers, what percentage would you put it at of Darius Garland playing the entirety of the season for the Clippers? I'm not talking injury risk. I'm talking about the idea of moving him for draft capital for younger pieces. Is that in play at all to you, or do you think he'll stick the year out there?

48:28 I would say 75% he ends up on the Clippers at the end of the season, but if he plays great through the first half of the season and he's healthy, they would be smart to trade him, whoever their interim GM is. Though I guess maybe Lawrence Frank will be coming off suspension. raring to go he only got suspended for six months when does that put.

48:48 The trade deadline yeah that start yeah.

48:51 I think it's after the trade deadline you know okay because it was in september too bad too bad for lawrence frank uh do you think they're saying in the stream team do you think steve balmer will wear a disguise and try to sneak into the into a dome which he owns and built yeah with his money and they said you can't go in.

49:07 Your own house who was that mets coach that did that one bobby valentine bobby valentine yeah straight up mustache and glasses go balmer style.

49:14 Look like jimmy hart i.

49:16 Mean yeah i i thought balmer was much smaller remember when we realized balmer's huge so that's gonna be tough he's a big dude he's gonna stick out.

49:23 So he's gonna wear such a stupid disguise oh wear that construction helmet that i wore when we built the arena they won't know it's me no stupid move.

49:33 Do you think they'd let him I was going to say, well, I guess he'd be in the arena. Let him like sit on the shitter, one of the 2,000 shitters he built in the Intuit Dome.

49:40 What do you mean?

49:41 Just hang out there?

49:42 Yeah, hang out. Just be in the building. You can watch from the toilet.

49:45 Yeah, that's what I'm saying. They should.

49:47 Yeah, they do have extra toilets. It's not like they all need to be used at all.

49:51 There's not somebody knocking on it. What are the next 10,000 other ones?

49:54 That is hilarious though about Lawrence Frank. Can he call the GM? Can he call Trent Redden who's taking over the GM?

50:00 Is that allowed? No, it's not.

50:03 Isn't Lawrence Frank going to be fired basically immediately?

50:06 They just signed him to an extension before this thing happened.

50:08 That's very true.

50:09 Yeah, but then he took too many notes. Stop writing this down, Lawrence.

50:14 Stop cooperating.

50:15 Yeah, exactly. All right, let's go to the other L.A. team, the Los Angeles Lakers, 53-29 last year, lost in the second round to OKC. They did beat the Rockets in the first round. Top 10 offensively, top 20 defensively, 19th overall. 44 and a half wins, though I think this is one that has also jumped. The Pacific Division, the numbers are bouncing around here. They're 45 and a half now.

50:37 Different team, like completely different team. Walker Kessler, of course, they paid a lot to get him with the draft picks and what they gave him. Mamu is there, Quentin Grimes, Colin Sexton, the young bull. Kevon Looney, I keep forgetting is a Laker. Matisse Theibel, Zaire Williams, and then they have the number 24 pick in Cameron Carr, who actually was putting up some numbers there in preseason. LeBron James gone, Aiton gone, Smart gone, Rui gone, Luke Kennard gone, and Jackson Hayes gone. Like this, I think of all the teams, a big, big change. 44 and a half wins, Trey Kirby.

51:09 Where are you leaning?

51:10 I very much like the over.

51:11 Okay.

51:12 I think they're going to be a great offensive team. Luka, obviously a magician, runs things in the pick and roll, and now he's got a good role man alongside him. Reeves, we've seen be a very successful player playing alongside Luka Doncic and then running the offense on his own. When Luca is on the bench, JJ Redick, I think is a very good coach. I think he has good defensive schemes and tailors his schemes to the talent around him.

51:35 Not a lot of talent on this Lakers team defensively, but their offense is going to be their defense. They're going to say, can you score 130 points tonight? Cause we probably can. They're going to put up some numbers. They're also a great clutch team. They were the best clutch team in the league. Last season, now obviously LeBron was around. That's helpful, but Luke is a good clutch player too. Reeves is a foul baiter. That helps in clutch times. If Kessler plays five games, this would be an under, but for me, I'll go over on the Lakers.

52:05 I'm going over too.

52:06 I don't feel really good about it beyond their big three. And there's questions with their big three of Luke Austin, Reeves, and Walker Kessler. Mainly, Austin Reeves, can he stay healthy? Walker Kessler, there's also that question. And then beyond that, The support guys, they're teeny tiny. Beside Luka and Austin Reeves at the three, are they starting Quinton Grimes?

52:27 He's 6'4. What a really good defender. Again, small.

52:31 Marcus Smart, gone. And so J.J. Redick was able to extract a lot from their defense. He was really, really good at getting a lot from this defense. But I worry. Not only there in the backcourt, in the frontcourt. Here comes Mamou as your four. There's a reason why he's been on the bench essentially his whole career. And so they've got bodies to fill in. beyond their big three, but I'm just not sure it all works out. This is sort of an in-between year where they spent a lot for Walker Kessler. Here's our big three, and they're going to try and support that a little bit smarter next offseason or at the trade deadline, but I got to go over with Luka running an offense.

53:06 Yeah, I thought you were going to hit us with an NTL on this one for sure, right? It just feels too low, just too low at 44 and a half. I'm with you guys. I'm going the over, and I've been an Austin Reeves hater before, but In the 12 games with Luka and no LeBron last year, Austin Reeves was putting up some huge numbers as that secondary guy.

53:27 So if he's putting up 25-5-7, shooting like 63% true shooting, those are all-star numbers, and he'll get to his first all-star game. Also, Luka could be an MVP-type season. I mean, he's always in the running. He's finished in the top six of MVP voting six times. Could this be the year? You've said it before, Trey, and I'm with you. He could win MVP because the numbers are always there. It's just like, the team has to be like a top three team in the Western Conference. Like, I don't think they'll be there this year, but over 45 wins? Yeah.

53:55 Can Kessler, though, prop up a pretty toothless defense? He's a huge part. We're putting a lot of faith in him trying to get that defense into an above average, you know, flirting around 12th or 13th in the league. So we'll see. But I'm with you guys.

54:10 It just felt too low.

54:11 44 and a half.

54:12 This is 47, 48?

54:12 Then I'm like, I don't know. This is more like I'm... contemplating between the Nuggets and the Wolves type records here but I think 45 wins I mean they back-to-back 50 win seasons now they've overhauled the roster but you know Luca and Austin Reeves on the offensive end she's going to carry you I.

54:28 Think going back to the joke that JJ Redick made you know we're not starting two white guys besides our big three but who do they start I think that's a fair question to ask with this team is it is.

54:39 It an Will it be a Jake LaRabia? Will it be a white guy that they started a lot last year at the four? Cause it's so.

54:45 Weird when they're going to try and play, replace Rui Hachimor, who's a good defensive player.

54:49 What, with what?

54:51 Matisse Theibel, who they signed late July, just to add more depth, but he's limited offensively.

54:57 He's not Rui. So I don't know.

54:59 What they do. They hope Adu Thiro breaks out. They hope Dalton Connect breaks out. They hope Zyre Williams is really, really good, but he's undersized too.

55:08 He's 185 pounds. He's tiny, so I think it's some real questions, real questions.

55:14 One of my kinks is that I think Matisse Theibel and Zaire Williams are good.

55:18 Okay. Don't shame me, please. No, I'm on board with that. Look, I love a role they could have playing alongside Luka and Austin Reeves, like when they can be more defensive-minded guys.

55:27 Matisse Theibel shot 40% from three of the last two seasons. He played 45 total games. You better keep that up.

55:35 Don't blame him.

55:35 He never played.

55:37 Man, the one concern is any sort of injury to Walker Kessler because I told you who their backup center was.

55:43 Looney.

55:43 Come on, Looney.

55:44 He's probably still like 26 or something.

55:46 I know, I know.

55:47 That's the crazy thing about Looney, the oldest looking young man in the league.

55:49 But like, honestly, think about their size after that. It's like Mamu then. That's their next big guy, really. Unless I'm forgetting anyone, so... Yeah, look, again, they are praying and hoping he's their next big, great Lakers center. Now, I think that's a hell of a stretch here when you look at who they've had in that franchise as their center position. But even get halfway there for this season, this would be a pretty easy over if he can.

56:14 So what do the people think on the Lakers?

56:15 People think 70% over. Who do you think that Walker Kessler is going to knock off? The Lakers, Mount Rushmore, all-time great big man.

56:25 Okay, yeah. So let's go through it. Who's on that list right now?

56:27 Mikan's on it. Yeah. Wilt.

56:28 Yeah.

56:29 Shaq.

56:30 Kareem.

56:30 Kareem.

56:31 Yeah.

56:31 That's it. So Mikan probably, right? I mean, he's the original NBA superstar.

56:37 Damn.

56:38 Shaq, I guess. Only one MVP.

56:40 Wow.

56:42 Oh, geez.

56:43 I think Mikan maybe gets bounced because of Walker Kessler's elite play.

56:48 Okay, could Walker Kessler make Mount Rushmore Jr. for the Lakers centers? Because guess what? They've got a lot more big men. Pau Gasol.

56:56 Pau.

56:58 Anthony Davis. Yes, good call. I think you would put him in the mix. Who else could possibly make it? Is Eldon Campbell on the junior Mount Rushmore?

57:06 Andrew Bynum.

57:07 Andrew Bynum.

57:07 Dwight Howard.

57:08 There's spots there. He could easily be the seventh best big man in Lakers history.

57:13 The second Mount Rushmore.

57:14 Junior Walker.

57:15 Yeah.

57:16 Alright, so a lot of people going Lakers over, including all three of us. Who do we have next here? The Phoenix Suns. 45-37 last year. That shocked a lot of people. Lost in the first round to OKC, but again, no shame in that. And a really good year. 16th offensively, 10th defensively, but this number is dropping. 39.5 we have on your graphic there, but it's down to 38.5 too, so it's going down. They added Miles Bridges. Yay, said no one ever. Koa Peet, number 30th pick, and Luke Kennard is a son. Grayson Allen, Royce O'Neal are gone for Phoenix. They re-signed a lot of guys, Tass. Your guy, Colin Gillespie.

57:59 Of course.

58:00 Four years, $ 48 million. Mark Williams, three years, $ 38 million. He's injured. Goodwin, three years, $ 19 million. Kennard, like I said, two years, $ 13 million. And Brooks, three years, $ 73 million. All new deals. And a lot of those deals, everyone's like, hey, fair, fine. Not crazy overpay, but Do you see the Suns taking a step back at all this year, or can they continue on this trajectory?

58:20 I think they're going to take a little step back. I'm going under, which is hard to believe because it's such a big.

58:26 Drop-off, and a lot of their talent still remains, but I do think the Mark Williams injury is something. Maybe the Lakers were on to something when they rescinded that trade. He's going to be out, and they're going to start Oso Iguodaro. I imagine Jordan Ott said he's a top 10 draft center defensively last year.

58:46 I said, oh, so you get Darryl?

58:47 Really?

58:49 He was, but he's playing, coming off the bench and all that. So he comes into the starting center spot. I know they're waiting for Kamen Malouach, man, man, to help out. But at the same time, he's super young. Last year, this team was 19 and 29 against teams that were 500 or better. I know they are high energy style defense they're going to be running at guys they're deep enough to run two units colin gillespie could be coming off the bench uh with devin booker and jalen green starting so i get why they could be sort of the same but i do think the west it has improved like teams like the Mavs. I will even say the Pelicans are going to be way, way tougher.

59:29 Oh yeah.

59:29 The jazz for sure.

59:29 Even the Grizzlies, like those bottom teams that the sons were able to eat up last year are different. And so they'll be close to that. I do believe in Jordan, not running an organization, a club, but going under.

59:43 Going under 39 and a half. What about you, Trey?

59:46 You said they surprised everybody last year and that's absolutely true. The surprise factor is gone, but I think Jordan Ott is a good coach. So I think the effort factor, which is really why the Suns won most of their games, is still going to be there. There is a lot on Iguodaro and Malawach's shoulders right now. Like Malawach has to prove that he's a rotation player. But I look at the team, you know, Devin Booker missed some time last year and the Suns went 500 when he was out.

1:00:13 Basically the same team minus Mark plus a little bit of bridges here. So I'm barely over. I think they're about a 500 team. Yeah.

1:00:23 I was one of few people. I remember actually taking the over last year. And a lot of us thought, okay, it's going to be a bad year. And they, and they hit that. And I didn't even think they were going to win 45 games. So they exceeded even my expectations, but I'm sort of with tasks on this one. I think there's going to be a little step back. The jail and green factor is fascinating too. Like when he played, they also were like a 500 team. I think there were 17 and 15 players. But he does some good things and you want to see him healthy and he's obviously a scorer, but is that what they really need on this team when you've got Booker?

1:00:51 I don't know.

1:00:51 I think there's a little tiny regression here from 45, which was like, wow, that's awesome, to more of this high 30s is where we're at here if you're just going under. And I am just going under. I'm not saying this is a drop-off and they're one of the worst teams in the West. I think they'll just go under 39.5, which I hate to do because I believed in them last year. They made me look smart, but.

1:01:12 I don't see them replicating it again.

1:01:15 I am with you.

1:01:16 Jalen Green learned how to pass from Steve Nash. Apparently this past off season, maybe, but he puts that into his game all of a sudden, but his health should help them out. He was injured for the first time in his career last year.

1:01:28 32 games.

1:01:29 So there's that.

1:01:30 And there, it feels like they're deep enough, but they go and give two players for one with Royce O'Neill and Grayson Allen leaving for miles bridges. So that was, that was an odd trade. And then the center spot is, is an issue, I think so. Yeah, they took care of those bad teams last year, but those bad teams are better.

1:01:46 Yeah.

1:01:47 It's a part of the equation here, for sure, because they did a good job against those bad teams, like you said, last year, and it feels like there's fewer. But then again, teams get injured, and they're suddenly bad teams, and you get those wins. You can tick, tick, tick up to like a 500 record. So where do the people think on the Phoenix Suns? This has got to be a tough one, no?

1:02:04 Surprisingly, no. 64% are saying under for the Suns.

1:02:08 Wow.

1:02:09 Okay.

1:02:10 Well, Tass and I agree with it. Trey is the one going Phoenix over. 40-plus wins in the desert there. Sacramento Kings, here we go. 22-60 last year. They missed the playoffs. Offensive rating, 26th. Defensive rating, 28th. So they're bad on both sides of the ball. This over-under line is low. 20-and-a-half wins. Now, Darius Acuff Jr., number 7 pick, is in here. And Alex Caraban, the number 29 pick.

1:02:37 Kept Precious Ochoa, but DeRozan and Westbrook. So the oldies are gone here. Trey, last year we infamously were backing the Kings, and it blew up in our face. 20.5 is low, though. Where are you going? Over or under?

1:02:51 What was it last year? Like 33.5 for the Kings?

1:02:53 Something like that, yeah.

1:02:54 I locked it.

1:02:55 You did lock it, yeah. I didn't lock it, but you did, yeah.

1:02:58 I'm feeling saucy. I might lock it again. I might do it. Which direction? Over. Oh, he's doing it again. This is not a confirmed lock. But NTL, baby, this number's too low.

1:03:13 20.5? 20.5.

1:03:14 It's the lowest significantly in the league, right?

1:03:17 By far.

1:03:17 The Nets were 24 and a half, yeah.

1:03:19 21 wins? Even the Kings can get 21 wins. 39 games last year for Zach Levine. Only 19 for DeMontis Sabonis. That got them to 22 wins. How many games are Levine and Sabonis going to play for the Kings this season? I think more than that. I think it's quite reasonable that they're both traded by the end of the season, by the trade deadline, but they could still get in 38 games apiece before then. They lost to Rosen. They lost Westbrook. Those are like their biggest effort, guys. So that's not great. This team does stink. There's a reason they have the lowest over under. But I'm telling you, that number is just minuscule. You can barely even see it from here. Over on the Kings.

1:04:03 Let me jump in, because if you're Deuce, I'm Moe, baby.

1:04:06 I'm also going over. We're running it back, baby! This is the year! This is the year they win 21 games.

1:04:14 Or 22, I guess, like they did last year. Yeah, there's a reason why they are considered to be maybe the worst team in the league, at least when you look at the over-under, because I don't love that the vets are not happy with this team. I mean, Sabonis wants to be traded, of course, and maybe he will, and maybe he'll regenerate his value. And then there's the Zach Levine of it all. And then their franchise, right now, fate, it rests in the hands of a rookie point guard, which is never a good recipe for success. But they do own their own draft pick and you want to stay out of the relegation zone. So maybe some, some fight there, some scratching and clawing as the season goes on to, to try and stay out of the bottom third. Um,

1:04:51 I'm going over just over, but I can't believe we're doing it again.

1:04:55 Well, I will not. Oh, I'm definitely, definitely going under.

1:05:00 So they're going to win in the teens. I mean, maybe 20, but teens basically.

1:05:03 There has to be one NBA team that has a teens win total in the NBA.

1:05:08 Not in Adams NBA. Not on Ben Simmons Kings.

1:05:13 Oh, yeah.

1:05:13 I forgot.

1:05:14 I didn't even add him.

1:05:14 There's an all-NBA player that got him for free.

1:05:20 This team benefited from Monkey March last year. They were 8-10 to close their season. So eight of their wins came in those last 18 games. That ain't not going to happen anymore. Teams are going to be trying around them. And you're going to still have your bad start. Levine wants out. Sabonis wants out. Deandre Hunter is not a starting small forward in this league, but he's starting for.

1:05:40 This team, but hold on.

1:05:41 They want out that. Isn't that a good sign?

1:05:43 Because they're going to like try and like help their trade value and ball out through the first couple of months.

1:05:48 Exactly.

1:05:49 But last year they wanted out too.

1:05:50 And they were okay. As you said, going through those numbers, but they had lots of great names.

1:05:56 They had a Westbrook. They had a Schroeder.

1:05:58 Uh, they had a Keegan Murray was around for a while, but I don't think they can do it. I mean, it'll be fun to watch a cuff, I guess. Um, but somebody's got to lose, and it's going to be the Sacramento Kings.

1:06:10 They're going to lose a lot. No, they're going to lose a lot. They probably have the worst coach in the league still in Doug Christie. He's got to be on the short list. And I guess their owner, Vivek Ranadive, is roasting his own organization. According to Zach Lowe, you don't love maybe that. I hope Keegan Murray is healthy because he's entering the first year of, I think, that giant deal, the five-year $ 140 million extension. you got to have him taking a step forward here. He only barely played, but he's shown promise.

1:06:42 So yeah, it's weird.

1:06:42 The first half of the season, a lot of those, you know, the depth guys who helped them at the end of the year, aren't going to play as much. You know, they finished the season 10 and 14 and their 24 games. It was Maxime Ray node, Nick Clifford, Dick one plowed and precious to chew a Doug McDermott. We're out there, not a young guy, but those guys were out there. And now you're going to be seeing those guys in Levine and, And Sabonis. And DeAndre Hunter.

1:07:11 Unfortunately, DeAndre Hunter. Yeah.

1:07:12 Think about how good it's going to feel when Sabonis and Levine have been traded and the Kings have 18 wins the last month and a half. We're going to be rooting so hard for DeAndre Hunter.

1:07:21 We're going to be the biggest, well, the biggest Dylan Cardwell fans on the planet because he can actually play, I think. It's at least scrappy.

1:07:27 Yeah.

1:07:28 Yeah.

1:07:28 Hopefully Doug should play them. And that's the problem.

1:07:31 Come on, Doug.

1:07:32 Yeah.

1:07:33 Okay, wow. So Tass is probably wisely taking the under train. You're fools once again taking the over. But it's only 20 and a half. It is quite, quite low.

1:07:42 I'm seeing here that it's plus 1 million if the Kings go over. That's crazy. Wow, the odds are wild.

1:07:48 So what do the people think? 20 and a half is crazy. 57%. Say over.

1:07:52 Oh, yeah.

1:07:52 Let's go.

1:07:58 Let's go it's a king's podcast now we've always been uh king's fans for whatever reason okay uh our final division the southwest division uh we got our houston teams and memphis and new orleans there and you see wemby showing off the spurs jersey they obviously have a huge over under total but we'll get to them last because alphabetically we start with the dallas mavericks 26 and 56 last year bad offensively a little better on the defensive end but 33 and a half wins uh Tass they've added a lot of guys here Santi Aldama uh Johnson obviously their number nine pick Delaria their number 25 pick Risa Shea from Atlanta is on Dallas Marcus Sasser uh Biberovic uh the early veteran is there Middleton gone Nemhard

1:08:42 gone Brandon Williams gone where are you going 33 and a half wins now Kyrie Irving is back that's the thing he is back here alongside Cooper Flagg.

1:08:50 This was a difficult one.

1:08:52 Okay.

1:08:52 This was really tough. It would mean an eight-win jump if they're going to go over from 26 to 34.

1:08:59 I'm going under, though.

1:09:00 I just think they lack the ball handlers. It's just not enough dribble passing and shooting.

1:09:06 With Kyrie back?

1:09:07 Yeah, we'll see.

1:09:08 We're hoping for him, but yeah.

1:09:09 Yeah, we'll see about that, how much he does that.

1:09:12 I mean, he's a scorer. He can score. Will everybody get involved?

1:09:17 I think Marcus Sasser is actually going to play, but I do think the dribble passing shooting is lacking. Not enough DPS in the DFW for me. So, yeah, acronyms are fun. Maybe they end the season better. Cooper Fly playing in his first year was 18% from three in March. Maybe he's just better in year two to end the season.

1:09:38 And so that win total, it ain't all that high, but all these other guys like Najee Marshall, He needs creators. Will they be out there creating for him? Mraz Johnson, who they drafted, also needs creators out there. They went with him over a Yaxel Lindenberg or a Daimara just to be younger, you know, way younger than Lindenberg specifically.

1:10:00 But I think they may regret it going up. They got all these forwards. You mentioned a few of them. There's a ton and just not enough ball handlers on this team. But we'll see what Rizashe and PJ and Aldama and Biberovic can do.

1:10:13 Maybe they can help. But there's too many question marks for me. I'm under.

1:10:16 Apparently, Cooper Flagg's putting on a show in one of these preseason games that's going on, I think, right now over in China. He had 17 in the second quarter here. Currently?

1:10:25 Like it's happening as we're recording?

1:10:26 I actually think it is.

1:10:27 Wow.

1:10:27 Yes.

1:10:28 I think the game is– yeah. Oh, no. It's wrapped up. It just wrapped up. Rockets won.

1:10:33 Ni hao to everyone who's joining us after the game is over. It is interesting that the Mavs chose Merez Johnson over Lindeborg and Adai Mara because– their coach is now the Mavericks coach. So he's basically saying he's the reason we were good last year. I think that's kind of cool. Yeah. Uh, I'm excited for Kyrie to come back.

1:10:54 I'm excited for Cooper flag, uh, second season. He will be a high draft pick in our first-time All-Stars draft, possibly number one. And I think Kyrie Irving would probably be the number one draft pick on biggest name to be traded this season because it seems unlikely to me that he finishes this season with the Mavericks just because he was part of the Luka Doncic team. He was attached to Nico Harrison, right? Like, this is all stuff that's in the past at this point for the Mavericks as they move on. Kyrie is so much older than their core pieces in Cooper, Merez-Johnson. and maybe Derek Lively if he's ever able to get healthy. And then once Kyrie's gone, you're talking about Sasser, Max Christie, Sergio, Larea.

1:11:35 These guys are decent players maybe, but I don't think they're starting quality ball handlers like you're saying, Tass. Just a completely new front office with Masai taking over, hiring Dusty May. It seems like they'll be Bill Simmons mode. This at Trade Machine House. This at Trade Machine Team. So I think their vets are going to be gone.

1:11:52 They also have a top two protected pick, which is like so complicated. How do you end up in the number two? Like you got to have the eighth best record so you get the second best odds and then you get in there? I don't know. It's too weird for me to figure out. So I'm going under ultimately just because I think once the trades happen for this team, it'll be Cooper out there trying to make things happen on his own and the Mavericks will work their way to getting the right kind of assets to build around him.

1:12:18 Okay, so you guys are both going under the 33 and a half. Oh, I see what's happening here. This is the Dallas Mavericks are the Washington Wizards. Of the Western Conference, where I was the only one that went over, and you guys went under. I'm going over on Dallas. I think we're only looking at an eight-win improvement, like you said, Tass. Cooper flag growth, that's a walk.

1:12:37 Sure.

1:12:38 We believe in that. Kyrie, returning to form at least for some of the season until he's potentially moved. that just unlocks a team and what they can do on that end. But then we need like, you know, a rejuvenated Derek Lively II, a Max Christie sort of continuing to grow into being a 40% three-point shooter and maybe up, you know, helping the scoring a little bit more there as he's like one of their really, when you look at their roster, like sort of only traditional, I guess, sort of shooting guards. It's few and far between, but The new head coach in Dusty May. On one hand, I'm excited. You like the new coach bump and like Jason Kidd, you know, some, some warts when it came to him, but he's also a college transplant. And we've

1:13:16 seen that like there are instances where that works and then others where it's like, Oh, it does not work at all. And those hires don't. So I'm going to go just over though. This is a pretty low line to me.

1:13:27 Yeah.

1:13:28 If Kyrie is healthy and Cooper goes the way we think his career is going to go. And then, you know, there's a lot of, a lot of front-court pieces that they need to figure out minutes for and who's playing and who jives with who, but I think it's a low number, so I'll go over.

1:13:41 You're right.

1:13:41 Maybe I'm being short-sighted. Maybe Cooper just grows at the end of the year.

1:13:45 Like I said, he was bad to end the season last year shooting, and that bled into the team's record. They were good at first. They were 19-26 for a long time. I'm not getting these numbers.

1:13:57 They were 19-26. They ended 9-30 to end their season.

1:13:59 Yeah.

1:14:03 They can be better than that.

1:14:04 Right.

1:14:05 Um, so that's a weird, there's seven and 30, my bad seven and 30, 10 of the year. That's, that's just bad numbers. Uh, so Cooper has got to grow. He's going to be better to end the season. So maybe this number is low.

1:14:17 He was putting on numbers during the second half of the season. He couldn't hit threes, like you're saying, but he played incredibly well. There was just nothing around him. And that's the concern for me, is that there's going to be nothing around him by the end of the season.

1:14:27 Cooper is not the concern. It's everything around him and Kyrie's health and how he looks after returning from the ACL injury. I don't think he played today. I thought he was going to play in this game, but it doesn't look like he played.

1:14:36 Yeah, and then the centers, they're going to trade Gafford, I assume, at some point. Can Derek Lively be healthy? So there's questions up and down.

1:14:44 Okay.

1:14:44 What do the people think on Dallas?

1:14:47 59% are going over. Okay.

1:14:49 Backing me on the Dallas Mavericks. Pretty low line of 33 and a half. All right. Another team in Texas, the Houston Rockets. 52 and 30 last year. Lost in the first round to the Lakers. This is a top 10 team on both sides of the ball. Eighth offensively, sixth defensively. And their over-under is 47.5 wins. I think this one has jumped to 48.5, last I saw on FanDuel.

1:15:11 Marcus Smart in, Bogdanovich is in, and Dorian Finney-Smith and Josh Okoji are out. And obviously Van Vliet returns Trey, coming back from his own injury. 47.5, Houston.

1:15:24 I love the over. I think they're still going to be a great defensive team. They just have a lot of size. They have a lot of guys who give good effort, including Fred VanVleet. I think him coming back is going to help make them better on offense, just being a distributor and a guy who can take a little bit of pressure off Kevin Durant to get shots at the end of the shot clock or at the end of the games. The Warriors, their top guy's health.

1:15:46 They got 78 games from Kevin Durant last year, and he's aging. 72 for Alper and Shen Goon. If those guys go down Maybe a tough look at the over here, but they've got good depth. They've got backups at every position. I think Marcus Smart will help. I think they will manage Steven Adams a little bit more this season. They still have pieces that they can make a move if they want to at the trade deadline. This was an easy over for me.

1:16:11 And they're performing in China. They just scored 135 points against the Mavs. And we're getting updates, too, from the stream team. Alan Kailu says Kyrie confirmed to play on Sundays in the Cow game. And Tip is at 510 a.m.

1:16:22 Central. Thank you. We know when it tips. The Houston Rockets, that's an over for me as well.

1:16:28 47 and a half, it's no problem. Bringing in Fred VanVleet is going to be really important to this team. The space created automatically with that guy. I mean, last year, their 28th and three-point attempts. Can you just help out percentages with him shooting, but also Shangoon, more catch and shoots.

1:16:47 I meant Thompson, more catch and shoots so you don't have to handle the ball as much. So I just think across the board, Durant gets space too. They just need a point guard and he makes everyone better. You got to throw a market smart in there. They still have that a-hole attitude that they had under Emu Doka.

1:17:02 Yeah, I like them. I like just the way they all shake down now. 47 and a half seems low.

1:17:06 It does seem low. There were 52 in team last year and I think the Rockets are objectively more talented. This time around. Now, yeah, again, I understand the Durant factor because he's getting older and like you're going to hope for another 70 plus win or game season from him. But yeah, the Van Vliet and then Steven Adams, like I don't want to gloss over him. When he was on the floor last year, Houston had an insane net rating because he just they had like they grabbed like 44 percent of their own misses when he is on the floor. He just gobbles up offensive rebounds and like gives you the possession game. They didn't make a swing for the fences type of trade in like any sort of Giannis or something like that. They just doubled down

1:17:43 on a defensive identity in like Marcus Smart. And then they re-signed to Ari Eason to team friendly deals. I'm with you guys. This is a lock for me on the Houston Rockets. And I sort of had to, because I'm always saying, you add Van Vliet to this team. They're going to be really good. We thought he might come back last year.

1:17:58 Yeah, I was buying it.

1:17:58 Yeah.

1:17:59 And of course that didn't. So hey, look, he just got more time to hopefully rest up. I'm with you guys. I'm going over 47 and a half, even 48 and a half as it jumps up here. Now, can they compete with the upper echelon of the Western Conference in the Thunder Spurs? No, there's definitely a tier below them still.

1:18:17 But we are just looking at regular season wins here. And we're banking on, obviously, Van Vliet and Adams helping out a pretty loaded roster here overall.

1:18:24 Definitely. I think they're in the mix for third best team in the Western Conference. I think it's like them, Nuggets, Lakers, Minnesota. Yeah.

1:18:33 We'll see who it is.

1:18:34 They definitely have an identity, too, on the defensive end, which I like. So what do the people think?

1:18:39 Good question.

1:18:40 Good question. They're over.

1:18:41 63% are saying over.

1:18:43 Yeah.

1:18:44 That doesn't shock me. Houston Rockets, we're all in, everybody. And you've already tipped my hand. that it was a lock, too, so we'll get to that later when we share our three locks from the West. Okay, Memphis Grizzlies, 25-57 last year. Missed the playoffs. Bad on both sides of the ball, of course. 29-1⁄2, though, so it's a little more hope there for Memphis from the oddsmakers. Cam Boozer is their number three pick. They got Beef Stew, Jeremy Grant... Chris Murray, Quentin Post, D'Angelo Russell. Wait, no, D'Angelo Russell is not on the team, right?

1:19:13 Released. He's released, yeah.

1:19:14 He's over playing for the Shanghai Sharks, I believe.

1:19:16 Yep, yep. Let's see what time he starts. No, I'm kidding. They're probably not playing right now.

1:19:20 John Morant and Santi Aldama are gone. So they've overhauled their roster here, Tass, but 29 and a half wins.

1:19:29 I'm going over.

1:19:31 I know it might be surprising to some people because the names don't jump out at you for the Memphis Grizzlies now as they retool. But I think Thomas Isolo is going to run out a couple units because I think their depth is pretty good. It starts with Cam Boozer, who has looked really, really good every time he touches the ball. Him and Cedric Coward, I think, at the forward spots. And then you're tied Jerome's and then some good guards and Jalen Wells, Cam Spencer. I'm buying over a 29 and a half. I think they bring in some attitude with Isaiah Stewart. And then again, the depth is there. Like a Quinton Post can come in and play if Zach Eaddy is out. I think this is the right roster build for Tuomas Isolo. Hockey shifts coming.

1:20:15 Five on, five off. I'm buying it.

1:20:18 I'm buying the 30-win team here.

1:20:20 Okay.

1:20:21 The Grizzlies are going to be the nerd team of the year. You can already feel it. Everybody loves these random guys. They got a collection of dudes who you're like, yeah, I like that guy. I take him on my team. And they got like 10 of them.

1:20:31 Yeah, they do a lot.

1:20:33 Like Jeremy Grant, not a fan, but... as your eighth man, pretty solid. Isaiah Stewart, it's like Detroit said, yeah, see you later, but he's going to be helpful. Assuming Zach Eady misses some time. If you tell me Zach Eady plays 70 games, that would be awesome. And I would be massively over on this one. I'm just minorly over because I think Boozer is going to be neutral as a rookie and that's good as a rookie.

1:20:56 Ty Jerome, full season. Scottie Pippen Jr. is back as well.

1:21:00 They're deep. They're They're young and experienced. They've got some older guys like Cedric Coward's not a young second year player. Zach Eadie's not a young third year player, but they are still young in their NBA years, which I think is good. So yeah, I'm just a little bit over on the Grizzlies. There's people talking about them maybe making a push to the play-in or something like that. I think that's a little far-fetched. Yeah, but I think they're going to be fun to watch and I think they're going to be pretty good.

1:21:26 I'm with you guys. We're all agreeing on this one as well. Yeah, I have the over, but I don't have them like, yeah. making a play in game. Um, but yeah, low thirties. That's all we're looking at here. It's an improvement on last year. You're right about a lot of like, uh, the nerds are going to love, like, I mean, people already love Ty Jerome and he puts up numbers. Uh, when he played last year, he only played 15 games. He was like in and out of the lineup. He's always sort of banged up, but put up good numbers. Zach, anyway, plays, you know what he's capable of, but he's got to play. Can't boozer. I mean, the perfect fit for this team as their, their high draft pick in just terms of fundamentals, solid, Awesome. And,

1:22:01 you know, Cedric Coward should improve too. Yeah, I think it's a 30-plus win team. I don't think they're going to be bad, bad, bad like some of these other teams in the Western Conference.

1:22:10 I look at the roster and I see so many names. Are they just keeping names on their roster as long as possible so everyone talks about them as a possibility?

1:22:17 Like, Gigi Jackson, that guy can play.

1:22:19 Yeah, that's a forgotten guy.

1:22:21 They got to release some guys at some point.

1:22:24 Oh, right.

1:22:24 They have too many guys?

1:22:25 They do. They have too many guys.

1:22:26 So they just keep them around just so everybody talks about them. And are those internet geeks? Like, yes, this team can do it.

1:22:32 But I do agree.

1:22:34 The shifts will come, man. We got depth here. Walter Clayton, we haven't even mentioned him.

1:22:39 We can go deep.

1:22:40 Ty Jerome could be injured again, so they're going to play Walter Clayton. There's a lot of talent there.

1:22:45 Edie is such a difference maker. When he plays, he's a dominant force inside with his size and great touch as well, screening, the things he brings. It's just like he's also 300 and whatever, 350 pounds and has bad feet and ankles. So that's not a great combination.

1:23:01 No.

1:23:02 Since you walk on your feet. And use your ankles to jump in basketball. But if he stays healthy. Oh, if he stays healthy. I hated last year he was having surgery for laxity. I don't like the sound of that in your ankles. Lazy ass ankles.

1:23:16 What did he play last year? 11 games?

1:23:18 Not very much.

1:23:20 I mean, it was a write-off season, obviously, last year. And they still won 25 games. And we're not asking for much more here. So with a little health improvement and some of these guys popping off. We're looking at 30. Okay, what do the people think? I think they're going to say over, but I don't know.

1:23:32 They're heavy under. Heavy under?

1:23:35 Heavy under.

1:23:36 60, tabulating, tabulating, 65%, I'm going to say, before it tells me.

1:23:40 Okay, so this is one we really disagree on with the people. We're all over, and everybody, well, not everybody, but a majority saying under on Memphis as one of the worst teams in the Western Conference.

1:23:50 Fascinating.

1:23:53 Two teams left. New Orleans Pelicans, 26 and 56 last year. Their overrunner is 28.5 wins. They've added Benny Mathren. Our guy Kobe Buffkin is, I think, on the roster. And Looney is gone. They kept DeAndre Jordan. A fairly quiet offseason, but they made a coaching change in May when they hired former Magic coach Jamal Mosley. So they're doing the thing where they're bringing in a new coach and... We try again with this roster of like talented guys, but it just because of health, a big part of health issues.

1:24:28 It's never really clicked here, Tass. So is this the year that they get at least 29 wins?

1:24:34 Dream big.

1:24:35 Dream for 29.

1:24:35 They got to get this over. I think they will.

1:24:39 Oh, he believes.

1:24:40 Well, it's not like I'm believing in much to win 29 games. It doesn't mean you're even sniffing a playing spot. But if DeJounte Murray comes back and plays the way he did to close the season last year when he only played 14 games, I think that just helps.

1:24:53 He's a talented guy.

1:24:55 At this point of his career, I think he can be a bit of a leader like they need out there.

1:24:58 So there's that.

1:25:00 I do like Benedict Mathurin coming off the bench, which I think he must come off the bench on this team to just score because that's his job. He's a modern-day Corey Maggette for me. Just score, man. That's all you have to do on this team. I think his role just changes now coming to this team. And I don't believe some of the Jamal Mosley talk that Eve Misi looks incredible and he's going to be our starting center.

1:25:21 I saw Dai Mara outplay him, and.

1:25:23 I think.

1:25:25 That whole thing isn't going to work out. I don't think this team is deep enough. I don't buy all this talk. I don't buy the Zion Williamson talk that I got this new trainer last year in the middle of the season that Chris Crisp is his name.

1:25:38 Chris Crisp?

1:25:39 Quite a name.

1:25:40 That's awesome.

1:25:41 It is a really good name.

1:25:42 Is he related to Coco Crisp?

1:25:43 Yeah.

1:25:44 Um, maybe, maybe he says don't eat crispy foods, no fried foods. I don't know because he did apparently bond with Zion Williamson in the middle of last year and renovated the gym and all that. But I said the same thing last year about Zion Williamson's previous year that he learned it in the middle of the season. It wasn't the off season. That's what crisp did. I'm not buying Zion growing. I'm just buying that this team has enough talent to win 29 games.

1:26:10 That is a tiny, tiny number. But the question for me is, what do the Pelicans want to be? Like, are they trying to be a play-in team? Probably. You would kind of think so. Like, signing Benedict Matherin, why would you sign him if you weren't trying to be good? Why would you still have Trey Murphy and Herb Jones if you're not trying to be good? They got Zion.

1:26:28 They got DeJounte there. But they also traded a ton of stuff to be able to draft Derrick Queen, and now he might be coming off the bench. Jeremiah Fears seems like he's certainly going to be coming off the bench, so they don't seem to be in development mode. They did play at a 30-win pace with DeJounte Murray last year.

1:26:43 I don't know if you can call it a 30-win pace when you play less than 30 games, but they were trying to win because they didn't have their pick and everybody else had given up. I think this is the first one I'm switching. I had this written down as an over, but I'm going under just because too weird.

1:26:59 Too weird. I'm with you. I had just too many questions as you guys are going through, which is why I'm leaning under. First off, Mosley has to try and get an above-league-average defense out of this squad, and that looks tough to me. I mean, especially if Queen and Zion Williamson are out there together. Now, maybe they'll stagger them, and I'm sure they will, but can Zion play 60-plus games again? There's that part. Trey Murphy III, can he take another step forward?

1:27:25 He's good.

1:27:26 He's really good, but can he get to an all-NBA-type guy, like a Jalen Johnson sort of level? We'll see. Second year guys in Queen and Fears, you guys went through. Can they take big steps here? Benedict Matherin should be a good sixth man of the year candidate. No, he can't start because he doesn't play defense either. So I get him coming off the bench. And then DeJounte Murray, yeah.

1:27:43 Can he stay healthy? Can he contribute to winning basketball? I'm adding this all up. There's too many question marks and, you know, they've burned us before too. So I'm going under. I'm going under. There's a lot of talent on the team, but just like. They make a fool of us all the time.

1:27:59 I look at this team. I'm like, how are you not going to win 30 games? Like multiple guys who have made all-star teams or could make all-star teams. But it's hard to have a lot of confidence.

1:28:10 That's why basketball is a beautiful sport, though, right? You can have all the talent in the world, but does it fit? Does it make sense?

1:28:14 Who's leading?

1:28:15 I mean, like Mosley coming in, new voice, like that's something here. But what confidence do you have in the front office with this team, too?

1:28:22 Very little.

1:28:22 I mean, Joe Dumars doesn't even know what the front office means. So that's a concern of mine.

1:28:29 I do have the one belief with Zion Williamson and the training and all that is that it seems like he's playing more and that's the bottom line. And it's just that he's getting out there and managing his body. to that level. Like he's not trying to be a number one guy anymore and put in DeJounte Murray beside him.

1:28:48 I do think that's the start of something. Now it is a hodgepodge of rosters and makeup for sure.

1:28:55 And I don't buy that. Eve Misi is going to be our starting center. He's awesome.

1:28:58 There's too many things working. I get why there's so many questions, but I do like sort of the... Now you got DeJounte Murray in there and Herb Jones out there. Can't be worse. Benedict Matherin off the bench and scoring. So they should win literally four more games than last year.

1:29:13 It's not a lot. I'm not asking for a lot.

1:29:15 It's very low. I mean, you're right. Like at their peak when they play and they're healthy, those three, I love like DeJounte Murray, Trey Murphy III... And Zion Williamson, when healthy, when at their peak. Like, that's a really good base, you would think, for an NBA team. But, you know, I don't know. This is the classic, the Pelicans just, like, keep banging their head on the wall, too. Like, I remember debating, not even debating, I was agreeing with you, Trey, like, I guess it was last year at some point, like, there's no way they just keep all these guys again.

1:29:43 Somebody will be moved, be it Herb Jones, be it cash in on Trey Murphy III, Zion, of course. Now, it's tougher with the contract, but Here they are. Just do it again. New coach. We'll try it for the new coach bump. What do the people think with the Pelicans? 28 and a half.

1:29:57 74% are under. 74?

1:29:59 Wow. That may be our heaviest vote. Well, we had a 75 on something, but yeah.

1:30:04 Because that number has jumped. There's lines out there that was 27 and a half. So it already has jumped. It's surprising that our fans, smart basketball fans, would say 74% under.

1:30:14 They will.

1:30:17 Tear down some of those pieces at some point. I think the Trey Murphy, they have to at some point.

1:30:21 They have to.

1:30:22 Or they should.

1:30:23 And they should.

1:30:24 Yeah.

1:30:25 Yeah. We've said that for years. But like, yeah, like Herb Jones, if he can play and regain a little bit of his peak form, that is a guy they should absolutely then move for whatever, younger talent. draft picks, something because a team would convince themselves, oh, like Herb Jones for us could really help us in a playoff series.

1:30:44 But for you moving forward, yeah, if he's good again, because he's sort of regressed there offensively, injuries played a part too. Always injuries playing a part down there in New Orleans.

1:30:52 Trey Murphy to the Warriors, still buying that to some degree. But that would warrant the most back for the New Orleans Pelicans front office, right? Beyond anybody on that roster.

1:31:04 Beyond anybody.

1:31:04 Yeah.

1:31:05 Does he get more back than Zion Williamson? Yes. Yeah. I would think so.

1:31:09 He does.

1:31:10 And so, yeah, if the Warriors are buying in for Steph, that would seem to me to be the one that happens this year.

1:31:15 But, like, if the reports are true, it's always, like, the Pelicans want four first-round draft picks. Like, they want the Desmond Bain package for trademark of the third. And they might be right to obviously request that, but then everybody, like, the counter is always, like, teams are stopping at two, you know, first-round draft picks for someone like him. So there seems like a vast difference here.

1:31:33 That's what agents and front offices do. High ball, low ball. High ball, low ball. We'll meet in the middle one day.

1:31:39 Final team here in the Western Conference. The San Antonio Spurs, 62-60 last year, lost in the NBA Finals to the New York Knicks. Top five, both sides of the ball. Fourth offensively, third defensively. The over-under is actually lower than the 62 last year. 60.5 is their win total. And it's basically the exact same squad, but Tobias Harris wins.

1:32:04 is now on the roster as well. Trey, I'll start with you on the Spurs, 60 and a half.

1:32:09 62 wins and they got better.

1:32:11 It's pretty good.

1:32:13 They turned Mason Plumlee into Tobias Harris. That's an upgrade. Okay. But Victor Weminyama is asleep in this photo. And I'm supposed to take the over?

1:32:23 Yes.

1:32:24 Spurs have only won back-to-back 60 or more win seasons twice in their franchise history. I couldn't believe that.

1:32:29 Wow.

1:32:30 They did it in 16 and 17 and then they did it in 11 and. I think there were 50 and 12 during the lockout season, so it would have been. Everybody's a year older. It did seem like they were maybe a year ahead of schedule last year with the way they exploded, almost won a championship, were great in the playoffs. Perhaps the disease of war will sit in. Dylan Harper's dealing with a lot of stuff off the court and also having to say this about He's basically trashing Deere and Fox in GQ Magazine. I thought that was a little odd, but I also do want him to play more. And then they get him starting alongside Fox and Castle and Vassell.

1:33:11 I mean, you can throw out a small team when you got Wemby in the back. This was one of the hardest lines for me. I hate to say it. I'm going under. Oh, okay.

1:33:21 A little surprised because you were one of the biggest Wemby fans I know.

1:33:25 I love Wemby. I think he's a great player, and I think he's going to go down– in some serious conversations in the future. But 60 wins is tough. I mean, they can win 60 and hit the under, you know? All right.

1:33:37 Where are you going?

1:33:38 I'm going over.

1:33:39 I think this is one of those years where everybody is absolutely locked in after the way last season ended.

1:33:46 They're leading.

1:33:47 The NBA Finals was at 73% of the minutes, and then they lose at the end of the games. I think they just will be absolutely locked in. I think it's going to be a little like when the Spurs lost the NBA Finals. in 2013, and then they came back the next season and won 62 games. I think it'll be like that. So I'm buying it. Wemby as the leader, even though there's some drama. Victor Wemby-Nyama, I think, will be absolutely 100% locked in. Again, they got better, like you said. With Tobias Harris, they just got height.

1:34:17 They got some size there. We'll miss Kelly Olenek.

1:34:21 He's gone. Where's he going to play? He's going to play abroad, too.

1:34:23 Yeah, he's somewhere in Europe.

1:34:25 But at the same time, I think The goal is to send a message every game for this team when they go play. I think that'll be that focus. That's why it reminds me of the Spurs in 2013-14. I got them as an over.

1:34:37 I do as well. Yeah, because like I already tipped my hand that I think they'll be the number one seed in the Western Conference. I think it's something they'll actually want to go get to in a hypothetical series again against OKC if they were to meet up in the Western Conference finals before Thursday's preseason opener. Johnson said he did plan to start Castle, Harper, and Fox alongside Devin Vassell and Wemby. Fox was a late scratch, so we didn't see it there, but this is, this will be the thing to watch because in limited minutes last year, it wasn't great. The, the three headed like guard line up there, uh, of those guys in, uh, Castle, Harper, and Fox all starting together. But yeah, well, will he

1:35:14 lean into it? Will he start it? Will it be better? Because it was pretty limited minutes and whatever. There's some noise in that. Um, But this is a damn good team, of course, and I think they're going to win 60, 61 plus games.

1:35:27 Yeah, I think they will play the three guards, especially with Tobias Harris at the four. Vassell, I think, would have to sit at times just because they are bigger. And so you can go smaller with your other three.

1:35:37 It is interesting. You're losing some shooting when you make that decision, if Mitch Johnson does that. Taking Vassell out, even Champagny has a possibility and stuff like that. Not that he can't work, because these are great, talented players.

1:35:49 Toby's your go-to guy.

1:35:51 I think Wemby can hang out at the three-point line, and Toby can be, at times, your mid-range.

1:35:57 Scorer.

1:35:57 Just give him to him, like he was with the Pistons last year. He's got a calf strain.

1:36:02 He's older.

1:36:03 He's not the winning factor here. He's going to play whatever role they want him to play, but it's an improvement.

1:36:09 I mean, they just have like... they doubled up Harrison Barnes. It feels like to me, they're like, all right, now we got two of them. Can you guys play 82 games between the two of you? Uh, Harrison Barnes and Tobias Harris.

1:36:19 That's a low blow to Toby. He's better than Harrison Barnes. Toby can score.

1:36:25 Toby can score. He's 34 years old. He's on the downslope of his career.

1:36:29 Right.

1:36:30 Does he still have a little bit left? He played well in the playoffs at times and then he sort of fell off a cliff, but yeah, he's, Look, he's there. He's some size. He's shooting. You're out there with Wemby. You're always going to be able to hide a little bit. He's going to make up for a lot of defensive liabilities.

1:36:44 The number one storyline for me with the Spurs is these first couple weeks is what they start and how it works with Harper Castle and Fox, if they lean into that. Because if it doesn't, I mean, there's just still be so much like chatter around it.

1:36:56 What are you doing?

1:36:58 Keep one of them coming off the bench. Somebody's got to be the Ginobili. You know, that's just going to be a narrative around this team.

1:37:03 Yeah.

1:37:03 But if you win a bunch of games and everybody gets quiet.

1:37:05 I was even surprised to hear that they would do that to start games now. I thought it was still going to go with the same flow.

1:37:11 Well, maybe don't you think Harper and GQ articles and him saying like, I want to start, I should start. I am pretty damn good. Plays a part in this.

1:37:18 Yeah, I read that GQ article. I didn't buy a lot into that. He needs to start. They all like it. They all like the environment.

1:37:28 He don't like coming off the bench.

1:37:29 Yeah, I think that's all it is, man.

1:37:31 But he's good at it.

1:37:33 Yeah, but he's good at basketball.

1:37:35 He's really good at basketball.

1:37:37 He should start for sure. And I'm sorry, they should not start Tobias Harris. They should not orient their offense around Tobias Harris.

1:37:44 No, they should.

1:37:45 There's four other guys that need touches before this guy. Yeah.

1:37:48 But the guy who they take off is the question. I mean, is he an issue over Julian Champagny?

1:37:54 Is he bad in comparison? No, but Vassell will start. He's paid very handsomely to start.

1:37:59 Yeah, that's why I was surprised that they would even start Dylan Harper to start this season. I think they go back to the exact same thing.

1:38:06 Oh, that's what I meant. That's what I meant by watching early in this season what they do here, whether they stick with it. I mean, again, we didn't see it in preseason because Fox was suddenly like a last-minute scratch, so. Maybe we'll see in another preseason game or into the season. All right, 60 and a half. What, two of us over? Trey, the lone under? What do the people think?

1:38:24 68% are over.

1:38:25 Over, okay. So a lot of people think this could be maybe the best team in the league record-wise. Obviously very good, led by Wemby, and he'll be, they win 60-plus games, he's going to be in the MVP conversation if he plays to the 65. All right, we've done all the teams. Let's get to the locks. Who wants to get us started here with three Western Conference locks?

1:38:44 My three locks.

1:38:46 Start with the Denver Nuggets, over 47 and a half. I'm not betting against Nikola Jokic. After that playoffs he had, he is going to come back strong. I believe in the rest of the roster is good enough. Second one, Houston Rockets, over 47 and a half. Kevin Durant can play until he's 45 if he wants. You throw in Fred Van Vliet in there, I think everybody gets better.

1:39:08 And I'm taking the San Antonio Spurs, over 60 and a half as well. Got to buy in. To Victor Wambinyama one more time after what happened in the finals. I think they will bounce back like those 13-14 Spurs after they lost in the finals.

1:39:22 They're going to be locked in all the way until the finals. Will they get there? Who knows. But I think they win 61 or more.

1:39:28 Once again, task goes all overs.

1:39:31 He's optimistic.

1:39:33 Trey, your three locks in the West.

1:39:35 Unfortunately, we're going to be doubling up on.

1:39:37 Some blocks here. Yeah, okay.

1:39:39 It's okay.

1:39:39 It happens.

1:39:40 I'll take one that I know nobody else is on. Maybe nobody else is on. Tass is definitely not on because he just said his. The Lakers over are a lock for me.

1:39:48 Okay.

1:39:48 45 plus. Easy.

1:39:50 I'll also take the Mavericks under as a lock.

1:39:53 Whoa, now that one's interesting.

1:39:55 Okay. Yeah, that one's a risky boy.

1:39:57 That's a bit of a risky one.

1:39:58 That's a bit of a risky boy.

1:39:59 Sure.

1:39:59 That's a very little number. Wow. 33. Okay.

1:40:01 33 wins would be under.

1:40:04 And then what do I want for my last one? For me, it's between the Rockets and the Nuggets. Nuggets, Rockets. I'll go with Tass. I'm going to lock the Nuggets over as well.

1:40:16 Okay, this is interesting. We've got definitely some doubling up here. We don't talk about this in advance with each other. I'm going Rockets over 47.5. I like that, and they've just seemed better to me on paper with Van Vliet and Adams back, and they were a 52-win team. I don't know why they're going to get all that much worse.

1:40:32 I'm with Trey on the Lakers. 44 and a half. It's an NTL. Number's too low, baby. That's a 45 win plus team if Luka and Reeves are leading your offense. And Walker Kessler can hold it down in the back court. Or in the back rim, I was going to say.

1:40:47 That's not a thing.

1:40:49 And then I'm going to take an under. I hate to do it to my Phoenix Suns fans, but I'm going to take the Suns under 39 and a half. Rockets over, Lakers over, Suns under. Not hitting that 40 win mark. A little bit of regression this year after the 45 win year.

1:41:04 And there's not bad March, you know, where you can just roll over teams as well. So that changes a bit.

1:41:11 We don't know. Like the counter to like this whole draft reform and like it makes sense. Like, okay, teams are going to be competing more through February and March and April because you want to stay out of the bottom three and you don't want to hurt your chances to get a draft pick. But because of that, I wonder if teams are pushing more and not sitting guys down and all that, is there more risk for injury with some of these teams?

1:41:33 Yeah.

1:41:34 And rolling out guys in higher numbers and minutes in games. I don't know. Because they've had the ability to be like, your ankle's a little sore.

1:41:43 Don't worry.

1:41:43 Just sit down for two weeks. That actually helps our chances. Now, is your ankle sore? Hey, man, we'd really like you to play because we want to stay out of the bottom three. I'm just saying. I'm trying to think of what impact this could have.

1:41:56 A lot of sore ankles, I guess. Yeah, I hear what you're saying.

1:41:59 Just something to watch. We'll be watching throughout the season with No Dunks every day here at the Classic Factory. All right, let's hear your locks out there, everybody, in the stream team, in the comments. You can leave them there on YouTube or Spotify, your three locks in the West. Did you find this more difficult or not than the Eastern Conference? I'm fascinated to hear that as well. A reminder, No Dunks jerseys available for sale for the month of October.

1:42:22 That's it, baby. Limited time only sale. Get you and your rec league team all fitted there in the awesome looking No Dunks jerseys at nodunks.com. Got red versions and green versions with the reversible white. And if you're a Survivor fan, we did our podcast yesterday, episode three. Spoiler, we had a guy quit. Just straight up quit. Well, he said he was injured. Real bullshit. So we broke that down and then actually somebody did get voted out as well. So we had some fun on No Buffs Survivor recaps its own feed on YouTube and wherever you download and listen to podcasts.

1:42:59 I've started working Brody into my text messaging. Yeah.

1:43:02 Yeah.

1:43:02 I use Broski a lot. So it's, you know, a little sideways of that. I got a nephew named Brody, so. Unfortunately for me, it capitalizes every time.

1:43:10 I use it. I'm going to go back.

1:43:11 I'm not calling you proper noun.

1:43:14 Right, right. Because we know a Brody.

1:43:16 Yeah.

1:43:16 I think I dropped a Brody on you in an Instagram chat.

1:43:19 That's right.

1:43:20 It feels good.

1:43:21 That was the first time I've ever done it.

1:43:22 It does feel applicable. You're like, why weren't we saying this? He was on to something. Yeah.

1:43:28 Are you watching Survivor?

1:43:29 Yes.

1:43:29 Okay.

1:43:29 So you know of Brady saying Brody?

1:43:31 I do.

1:43:31 I do.

1:43:31 You know of Brady saying Brody?

1:43:33 Do you think you'll maybe add it to your lexicon?

1:43:35 It's interesting because my kids are watching. And my kids say bro a lot. I think it's right there.

1:43:42 Yeah, it's right there. Yeah, instead of broski, it makes a lot of sense.

1:43:46 Yeah, it's just bro to broski to brody. These are my brodies. I like it pluralized more for some reason than the one. So a group of broskis.

1:43:55 How do you spell it when you're spelling it?

1:43:56 I'm an IE man.

1:43:57 Yeah, so does Brady.

1:43:59 Yeah.

1:44:00 But your friend Brody. Yeah, he's a Y.

1:44:03 But that's why I like to differentiate. Oh, interesting. Like an Odie.

1:44:08 I just said that out loud and now I'm not a hundred percent sure. Oh, will my dad stick around this long into the podcast? Probably. Okay. Come on, Steve. Let us know.

1:44:17 Is it I E or Y at the end of this? What'd you say?

1:44:20 Nephew?

1:44:20 Yeah.

1:44:21 Okay.

1:44:22 Okay.

1:44:23 I mean, we can wait it out.

1:44:24 Do you think your dad looks like the guy running for governor here for the Republican Party?

1:44:28 Rick Jackson?

1:44:29 Rick Jackson.

1:44:29 How dare you say that?

1:44:30 No, no, no, no, no.

1:44:32 My dad looks like the coach for San Diego State University's basketball team. And a little bit like Ted Danson.

1:44:38 What?

1:44:39 No, he's got some dancing in him, okay?

1:44:42 There was somebody else I once told you, like, this guy is a doppelganger for you. I can't remember now.

1:44:48 A Danny Doppelganger?

1:44:49 I don't see Rick. I don't see Rick Jackson.

1:44:51 I hear you. Yeah.

1:44:53 All right, we'll call it there. Guys, we're back on Monday. The season previews continue. What? You got an answer? Brody with a Y. Oh, it is Brody with a Y.

1:44:59 So why was mine capitalizing? My Brody's. That doesn't make any sense. I don't get it, but shout out to you, Brody.

1:45:06 Yeah, shout out to all the Brody's.

1:45:07 Maybe because you do have Brody Paul in your contacts.

1:45:11 He's a Y, though, too.

1:45:12 He's a Y.

1:45:13 Oh, yeah. Who knows?

1:45:15 Brody listens to the show.

1:45:16 What's up, Brody?

1:45:17 He should be listening right now. He's your brody. Brody is my brody. He's been my brody for a very long time.

1:45:22 And the people are saying RIP Mike Ditka.

1:45:24 Mike Ditka died?

1:45:24 Oh, Mike Ditka.

1:45:25 Mike Ditka died.

1:45:26 Oh, that's not a fun way to end the show or the week. Nah. Rest in peace. I guess he was old.

1:45:30 How old was he? I don't know.

1:45:31 Couldn't have been that old.

1:45:33 I thought he was 80. No.

1:45:36 I bet he's 86 years old. Okay. Older than I thought.

1:45:39 Yeah, that is older than I thought.

1:45:40 Might have a Ditka sausage combo over at Skips today. The Bears.

1:45:45 Bears play the Packers this weekend.

1:45:47 Yeah, they do. Get a win for Ditka. Ditka versus the Hurricane. I'm taking Ditka. Hurricane, I say yes. No points.

1:45:56 Everybody stay safe out there and out in the Gulf. Yeah, the hurricane is coming. All right, we're back on Monday is what I was going to say. Season previews continue. I think we're doing our first time All-Stars draft. That's always a fun one. So we'll see you at 10 a.m. Eastern here in the Classic Factory.

1:46:10 Dad definitely looks like the San Diego State. Oh, yeah.

1:46:13 I just saw him.

1:46:14 Brian Dutcher.

1:46:15 All right, did we do Clipper Bros?

1:46:18 No, Clipper Bros.

1:46:20 You heard it here first. Have a great time. Turn up. Love you guys. Awesome.

1:46:24 Thanks for joining us.

1:46:25 And remember, we're doing these previews now, but you can come and Malu watch us all season long here.

1:46:31 All right. I don't know. Just needed a Malu watch. Needed one.

1:46:34 This was a lengthy podcast. Holy moly.

1:46:37 It was like 10 hours ago that you were singing. You forgot about it.

1:46:41 Praise the weekend, people.