Researching Honesty: Can you trust the data? Part 1

A famous Harvard researcher. A blockbuster finding about honesty. Suspicious data, failed replications, and a $25 million lawsuit. Welcome to one of the strangest research misconduct scandals in recent memory. In the first of two episodes about the Francesca Gino case, we investigate a famous experiment claiming that signing an honesty pledge at the top of a form makes people less likely to cheat. We follow the trail from a failed replication to some extraordinary detective work involving an Excel spreadsheet—and conduct a little statistical sleuthing of our own. Along the way, we discover how suspicious changes to a handful of observations can alter the story a scientific study tells.
Statistical topics
• Statistical sleuthing
• Data integrity
• Data management
• Replication
• Sensitivity analysis
• Effect sizes
• Statistical significance
• Reproducibility
• Spreadsheets
• Conceptual replication
• Direct replication
• CalcChain
Methodologic Morals
• “There's cleaning your data, and then there's laundering your data.”
• “Good data record keeping is still sexy. Version control, baby.”
References
• Shu LL, Mazar N, Gino F, Ariely D, Bazerman MH. Signing at the beginning makes ethics salient and decreases dishonest self-reports in comparison to signing at the end. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2012;109(38):15197-15200. Retracted. doi:doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1209746109
• Kristal AS, Whillans AV, Bazerman MH, Gino F, Shu LL, Mazar N, Ariely D. Signing at the beginning versus at the end does not decrease dishonesty. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020;117(13):7103-7107. doi:doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1911695117?utm_source=cha…
• Retraction for Shu et al., Signing at the beginning makes ethics salient and decreases dishonest self-reports in comparison to signing at the end. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021;118(38):e2115397118. doi:doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2115397118

Data Colada investigations

• Simonsohn U, Simmons JP, Nelson LD. Evidence of fraud in an influential field experiment about dishonesty. Data Colada. August 17, 2021.datacolada.org/98?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Simonsohn U, Simmons JP, Nelson LD. Data falsificada (part 1): “Clusterfake.” Data Colada. June 17, 2023.datacolada.org/109?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Simonsohn U, Simmons JP, Nelson LD. Data falsificada (part 2): “My class year is Harvard.” Data Colada. June 20, 2023.datacolada.org/110?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Simonsohn U, Simmons JP, Nelson LD. Data falsificada (part 3): “The cheaters are out of order.” Data Colada. June 23, 2023.datacolada.org/111?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Simonsohn U, Simmons JP, Nelson LD. Data falsificada (part 4): “Forgetting the words.” Data Colada. June 30, 2023.datacolada.org/112?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Simonsohn U, Simmons JP, Nelson LD. Exhibits 3, 4, and 5. Data Colada. September 16, 2023.datacolada.org/114?utm_source=chatgpt.comhttps…
• Simmons JP. Harvard's Gino report reveals how a dataset was altered. Data Colada. July 9, 2024.datacolada.org/118?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Additional resources

• Lessig L. The Gino Case. Website and podcast series presenting arguments challenging Harvard's research misconduct findings.theginocase.info/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Gino v Harvard University. CourtListener. Federal court docket and publicly available filings.courtlistener.com/docket/67659904/gino-v-harva…
• Simonsohn U, Simmons JP, Nelson LD. Data Falsificada. ResearchBox. Research data, analysis code, and supporting materials accompanying the Data Colada investigations.researchbox.org/1630.34?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Kristal AS, et al. Research materials and data accompanying Signing at the beginning versus at the end does not decrease dishonesty. Open Science Framework.osf.io/4b7mu/overview
• Correction for Kristal et al., Signing at the beginning versus at the end does not decrease dishonesty. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2026;123(27):e2610441123. doi:doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2610441123
• Harvard Business School. Investigative report concerning allegations of research misconduct involving Francesca Gino. Harvard Business School Research Integrity Investigation Report. 2023. Accessed October 18, 2026.datacolada.org/wp-content/uploads/Harvard-Repo…

Kristin and Regina’s online courses:
Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding (online.stanford.edu/courses/som-xche0033-demys…)
Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis (online.stanford.edu/courses/som-xche0030-clini…)
Medical Statistics Certificate Program (online.stanford.edu/programs/medical-statistic…)
Writing in the Sciences (coursera.org/learn/sciwrite)
Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program (online.stanford.edu/programs/epidemiology-and-…)

Program that Kristin teaches in::
Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program (online.stanford.edu/programs/epidemiology-and-…)

Kristin’s manuscript writing course:
instats.org/seminar/from-data-to-discussion-wr…
Find us on:
Kristin - LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/kristin-sainani-642b5914) &Twitter/X (x.com/KristinSainani)
Regina -LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/reginanuzzo) &reginanuzzo.com/ReginaNuzzo.com (reginanuzzo.com)

• (00:00) - Cold Open: Two Frauds in a Paper About Honesty

• (02:41) - The Claim: Spreadsheets Are the Villain

• (05:43) - The 2012 Honesty Pledge Study

• (09:17) - Signing at the Top Wins

• (13:31) - Failed Replications: Five Conceptual Tries, Then a Direct One

• (17:39) - How Data Colada Got the Data and Found Car Insurance Fraud

• (24:52) - Out-of-Order...