Why the Price of Oil, Beef, Electricity, and Everything Else Makes No Sense

0:02 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

0:18 Hello and welcome to another episode of the All Thoughts podcast.

0:21 I'm Tracy Alloway and I'm Jill wasn't Thal.

0:24 This is a very special live recording of the podcast. We were over in London for our first ever UK live show.

0:31 I love going to London. It was a little anxious putting on a live show selling tickets and stuff in London. You never really know who's getting show up in another city, but it is a great time. We had a great turnout, had some great conversations. It was great to meet some of the fans and listeners there. I really loved it.

0:48 And uh yeah, I really enjoyed the live episodes that we.

0:51 Record, absolutely and we had some great guests as well. And what you're about to listen to two of the perfect guests, really, I think for this topic. Obviously, commodities is still making all the headlines really, so we decided to get two of our favorite commodities specialists. Both of them have been on the podcast before. We spoke with Javier Blast. He is of course our colleague over here at Bloomberg. He's a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, author of the World for sale. And we also spoke with one of our former colleagues, Lorcan roche Kelly, who not only is a business editor at the Irish Farmer's Journal, but actually an erstwhile Irish farmer himself.

1:29 That's right, formerly one of our colleagues. Just to note, of course, because things change all the time. This was recorded on May seventh at Wilton's Music Hall in London. Take a listen, all right, So, Javier, the big question that we have to get out of the way. I'm sure it's on the minds of everyone in the room here is is Europe going to run out of jet fuel?

1:50 And will there be like should people take that into account when planning their summer holidays to Spain or wherever else?

1:56 I think that you are making a great impersonation of my father boys asking that question. And also when it's okay to refuel the car, I'm kind of halfway, it's okay now for gasoline and so on. As with that seven thirte in the morning, please ah, I mean, it all depends whether the straight or or most reopens or not and when, because it has to be a question of when we are okay with jet fueled for the next few weeks will until certainly the end of June.

2:23 Then it gets significantly tighter because demand goes up qualot during the summer.

2:28 But the market is working.

2:30 It's every refinery in the planet is maximizing get fuel production right now, and we are beginning to see that working and more companies coming on the record saying that they are okay for the summer.

2:44 I mean, I will say that some of my friends from university, and Joe makes fun of me whenever I say you need friends, But my friends from Uni we're talking about changing. There's summer holidays to ferries and trains, so there's real life demand destruction happening already. You mentioned all of this depends on when the Strait actually reopens, Like why don't we just ask you that basic question, when do you think the Strait will reopen?

3:10 I mean, typically you have a deal when it's painful for everyone in the negotiation, and it's not really painful for either side, or not painfully enough for either side to make the compromises needed.

3:23 Irani is feeling the economic pain.

3:25 For sure, there's unemployment, there's inflation, but the regime can impose a lot of penuries over the population, and you know it's the Atollahs don't face any imminent election. Christian Trump does face an election later this year. But the price of gasoline is going up. It's undeniable for and a half dollars a gallon. It's more expensive, but still if you look at American economics, it's still performing well.

3:50 Earnings are good, the SEMPI five hundred is near a record high. It doesn't feel for the US that really they are. The president is suffering a massive economic crisis that he's going to force his hand to concede to Iran.

4:06 So we are in a really kind of bad situation.

4:10 You are hoping for that reopening that is painful, but not yet really painful enough that everyone is forced to compromise. And that's what I'm worried that it's not getting painful enough. What I would almost want is that Iran was suffering a massive economic problem and that the president was facing one hundred and fifty dollars or high and then everyone has to agree.

4:33 And we are not there yet, so it may take longer.

4:35 Lorcan so again, for those who don't know, Lorcan not only a journalists but actually long practicing farmer, someone who actually, you know in the base, how are we doing on food here?

4:47 I suppose well, people look at this crisis right now and they say, we're back in twenty twenty two again, and I think we're in a completely different situation. And one of the big reason of a different situation is the world's food supply twenty twenty five, early twenty six.

5:00 It's been really strong. Like the world is.

5:03 There is a lot of food gown and wheat. It is swimming in milk. We have so much food out there. Well, they were short of is beef. We those that the US beef prices are gonna big prices around the world. But we've loads of chicken, loads of poetry. So there is loads of food out there. The real problem with having those food this is very liquid heavy said, there's no pressure in food price. We see some food price driven by transport costs more than the cost of producing food.

5:25 It's the cost of transporting food from the farm to the factory to the shop that's drive with the price right now. The problem's going to arise in six months and twelve months time when the decisions be made today about do I plant that field of wheat or do I read more cattle pecture, and farmers are gonna say, no, we're not going to do that. If you look at the US at the moment forecast, we have the lowest wheat plantation in the US total average. Ever, this is going back to day in nineteen nineteen, like, so there's a real squeeze on food. Not now, but in twelve months and maybe this time next year, you'll be looking at a burger and the price of the bone is going to cost as much of the price in the

5:59 meat is going to be. And that's kind of what we're looking at, and that's the real squeeze. But the pressure isn't there at the moment on there's their headline.

6:05 The price of the bun is just the price of the burger.

6:08 I have a farming question, a bit.

6:10 Of a this is about your Japanese, not with you. I have no answer to this.

6:13 Yeah, well I need advice on that. But setting that aside, farmers are always complaining about one thing or another, like they seem miserable. But when when we talk to you, you seem okay, Well.

6:23 That's because I stopped farming. At somebody else, I gave it up. As the farming is tough.

6:29 I think one of the big problems we see at the WONT and this is going to come back to my early point. The price the farmers are getting at the moment they're looking at it's very low. The price they're looking at for milk is very low. And they're saying what delis are going to make Like I can't turn around and say, like US farmers or Irish farmers, European farmers will go to say we need moremach from the government and they might get a baila from com.

6:48 If I'm a farmer in somewhere else sou Soun, Africa or in East Asia, they're really going to struggle in the next six to twelve months because where's the bailer come from, because they already are so subsidized with fertilizer and stuff like that.

6:58 Going back to the question, you know, it all comes down to the strait. So the war is over two months old right now, and I think, like, you know, again, when we first started having conversations about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, people were talking about two hundred dollars barrel oil in fairly short order, and you know, it's not it's not there yet explain this gap. How we have the you know, the nightmare scenario for the oil market. And it's obviously up a lot, but it's not a two hundred. It's still in the low I don't know what it is right now. We're in the low hundred. It's depending on what BENCHMARKT was.

7:30 It's about one hundred dollars a barrel for oil. I mean again, when you know, I was listening recently faty Bold ahead of the International and the Agency saying these crisis is was that nineteen seventy three, seventy nine, and twenty twenty two all put together. Then you look at the price of oil and I said, well, no really, and then you look at the price of natural gods, the price of electricity, the price of coal.

7:53 Because we have this obsession with with oil. First, you know, I raise my hand. I am obsessed with happens.

8:00 It is my fall ist the oil, crude oil and olive oil, those are my But you know, the energy wall is much larger than oil.

8:11 And for many you know right now.

8:14 Most of the energy that we are using is electricity, and electricity prices in Europe are on average about what they were on average twenty twenty five, so there is not a problem there. But you're right, people were expecting much higher prices. You have asked me a year ago, have year we have sixty plus days of the street or most close and this is all what has happened, and the war and the missiles and so on. Probably would have said, well, oil starts with a two handle and we are at two hundred and something, why we are not there? I mean bypass pipelines have done a lot of war. We have used a certainly petroleum reserves of everywhere other than China. We are drawing down inventories at a very fast pace.

8:54 And I do think that.

8:55 Perhaps what I underestimated is the amount of demand destructure that we have seen already. Somehow we have managed to reduce demand by probably about five million barrels a day. It is about five percent of the market without really creating a lot of economic pain. And it's a bit unkind to put it this way, but for the global economy, for the stock market, it does matter where the demand destruction is happening. It's not the same that it happens, say in Pakistan or Bangladesh.

9:31 That it happens in Germany. As it was the case in twenty twenty two.

9:35 So I think that those factors are but we are creating a flow of supply using a stockpile that cannot go forever, that is, at some point comes to an end, but it's lasting longer than I will have thought.

9:52 You know, you mentioned electricity prices not being as high as you might have expected given everything that's going on. It's come a cliche, I think, to talk about Europe always facing one shock or another, or Europe being the loser from whatever the latest crisis is. I'm sorry to our Europe based audience, but is there a difference between an oil shock versus an energy shock in Europe?

10:17 There is, because I mean, I think that we in some ways we have forgotten how bad twenty twenty.

10:24 Two was in terms of energy shock.

10:26 And take electricity and let's look at just a wholesale market and let's use the German contract as an average of europe pre.

10:35 Twenty twenty two prices.

10:36 Say there was fifty to seventy five euros per megaba hour, that went to one thousand euros per mega at hour. Now it's around eighty, so, you know, not far away to really the normal level, or let's just kind of take a step back, because I thought that to me, the defining kind of picture of twenty twenty two crisis.

10:57 You cannot really picture electricity other than the pylons or nuclear power reaction so on. But to me was the electricity bills that people will post on social media or some small medium enterprises will email to me. And I do remember a French baker sending me his electric you know, corner shop in the outskirts of Paris.

11:20 Typically his electricity bill came.

11:24 Around seven to eight hundred euros a month, and it just went from that to about seven thousand euros a month.

11:31 Wow, And we have not seen that.

11:33 But electricity is what really makes the world tick, and particularly in the service industry, which is really what drives economic growth these days.

11:44 And that's why the twenty twenty two.

11:47 Crisis was so destructive, particularly from an inflationary point of view, because a lot of businesses were receiving electricity bills that they were bandruptcy events. I mean either they increased prices and allot or they will be out of business. And we don't have that today, and that is that's a difference.

12:06 I'm not oil is very important because it permeates everywhere. I mean, as Lorca was saying, if we have a food price in the next few months, it's going to be more because everything is more expensive to transport. So you know, your grocer is go on attract to the supermarket. They may be on a on a plastic tray on the supermarket. That's going to be also more expensive. So inflation will be permeate. But electricity is a big deal and it doesn't really get the attention that it deserves.

12:32 By the way, we should mention that because we don't know exactly when this episode is going to come out on the feeds that this is all occurring. What's the day May seventh, seven fourteen, British summertime.

12:46 We had a request from someone specifically to say British summertime.

12:51 It is whoever made that request that was always summer.

13:12 Lorcan Haavia mentioned, Okay, maybe one reason that oil isn't as high as it wise because they're stockpiles. One of the episodes that we did, you know, sometime in early March they got a lot of people's attention was about fertilizer. I understand because I heard from someone that there is actually a fair amount of excess fertilizer right now. That's christening the blow.

13:34 Can you explain this to me.

13:35 In your particularly There is a nice bit of fertilizer right now, and this is you. This is such a Joe story. It's brilliant because it's got European environments.

13:43 Is the one who told me so, I'm stating maybe.

13:47 Outside, but so what we have in the or They brought in legislation a few years ago to support what's called domestic fertilizer in European producers. European producer very high cost producers, and one of their biggest costs they have to buy carbon credits for the energy that they use because it's huge energy intensive to make fertilizer, as we all found out in twenty twenty two with the gas crisis, So those carbon credits have to be bought in Uroine.

14:11 Things means that external producers outside of Europe having a competitive avantage because they don't have to buy carbon credits. So they bought in this pieceful legilation that's called the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Lovely acronema seabam because it hits you really hard. But we knew the first of January twenty twenty eighty six, this Seabam tax was coming in and it was going to put up to one hundred and twenty euros per ton on urea coming in Urrea's nitrogen fertilizer. So like all the farmers in Europe said, well, we're gonna buy a fertilizer in November and December when we'd never normally buy fertilizer. That is like the middle winter you're knox spend money.

14:43 It was a big boom and purchases in Europe a fertilizer in November and December of twenty twenty.

14:49 Five sixty two eighty percent. Wow, you know of what the normal would be.

14:52 So when we came into the January very March like farmers had the fertilizer or merchants had their fertilizer up till about May or June of this year sitting in the air. So the planting season has been thinking the UK being outside the you didn't have Seabam. It has its own thing, but it's not coming into first January twenty twenty seven, So the UK a bit late to the party there, I'm.

15:11 Sorry to say.

15:12 But in most of Europe, like that, so you seek the import numbers. December is the biggest number, sixty or eighty percent higher than normally will be. So it's been a hugely beneficial tax in the very short term. In the long term now, once we get through those stocks, will see that important fertilizer coming in and it's going to be more priced because Seabam will be there. But also if we look at countries that rely on a straight for most further nitrogen supply, they are now shopping in North Africa where Algeria, Morocco and Egypt where a lot of the European imports come from. And those countries like India particularly are buying put in huge contracts by that supply. So not only will there be SEABAM on

15:49 the imports, there will also be more expensive fertilizer as well. So again, as have you said, and I'm saying, this is not a crisis that's going away. This is a crisis that's delayed, and that's what we're seeing all the way through it.

15:59 So we see stories now that especially in the US, I guess maybe not so much here for reasons that you just outlined, but you see stories saying farmers can't buy all the fertilizer they want at the price they want.

16:11 Yes, what does that actually mean.

16:13 There is a global price for it?

16:15 I suppose if we step back to say pre twenty twenty six, the fertilizer spy for particular fertilized like for nitrogen, was a bit tight. So we see prices were creeping up. We go, okay, it's a bit tight. We'll get through next year. We need to get some more supply online. The fact you take thirty percent of it as straight away means there's a fight on for what's there. And US farmers generally like farming is an incredibly tight margin business.

16:39 Look at net marriages of like less than one percent generally year to year. So if you get priced to go by ten percent, is it worth planting this year? So when the farmers are giving out, complaining, as you say, like you're never happy, they have good reason not to be happy because they look at the hold it against No, no, no, but they've good reason to be unhappy. So I look at the farmers in the US. They saying they can get fertize, they wanted the price they want. Well, the price they want is free, and all of us is free.

17:04 Down but the price. They have a cost benef analysis built into their system. They can pay four hundred and fifty dollars for nitrogen, they can't pay seven dollars lights gen. And it's simple as that.

17:14 And it's almost an Everything in finance is a spread. Sure, you have the price of corn, you have the price of fertilizer, and you need to look at the ratio.

17:25 What is different in.

17:26 Twenty twenty two is that the fertilizer price increase a lot, but the price of corn also increase a lot. So you're a farmer, you were taking a hit on the cost, but you were benefiting from a high price. Fertilizers went more or less what you Lock was describing, say for four hundred to eight hundred dollars a ton, but con prices went from four dollars to eight dollars a bushel.

17:47 This time, com prices have barely moved.

17:50 They are are four and a half dollars a bushell, and the price of fertilizer has gone through the roof. So that that is spread is effectively negative to the farmer. That's why for American farmers this crisis feels very different to twenty twenty two because their cause is happ but their potential profit just down.

18:10 And I think it's worth just to bring back to my topic with farmers again because I love talk about farmers. The other products the farmers make, like dairy, farmers are in real trouble because we've seen global milk supply up I think it was five percent last year. We've seen some europe increries up seven percent so far this year as well, so the price of milk has gone below the price of production.

18:28 In the B side, we have huge beef prices, which are great, but cant farmers have cattle to cell.

18:33 The reason the price has gone so much because, particularly in the US, the cattle in the US is lowes has been in seventy five years.

18:38 Actually, can you explain that this is a source of a lot of controversy the cattle specifically, because some people want to blame the processors or whatever. The project is your diagnosis of beef prices.

18:49 There are too few cattle and too much demand.

18:54 Thank you Lork for that insight.

18:56 The lines on the chart Pat on the red meat, Yes, no, I think the first of all, I don't want to ever defend one of the big four meat processes, but they are losing money hand over fist processing beef at the moment. So Tyson results aroughut there your day. They lost one hundred and fifty million dollars in three months processing beef. So it's for hair to see how they're making a killing doing that, because clearly there is money.

19:17 But the problem is there are not enough cattle to be killed. The retail price hasn't gone so that everyone's competing for the cattle that are there to go to slaughter. The retail price has moved a lot, but hasn't moved enough. And we're get to the place now in a lot of markets where we're starting to see demand destruction happen.

19:33 So as the time between you're buying the animal and your the animal goes to market, they're going to be caught a little.

19:38 Bit in that.

19:39 But also I think it's very important for people outside the Industudent said, if you kill a steer, you don't have one coster for that, You've got twenty five different customers. Like the US is one of the largest importers of beef in the world and one of the world's largest exporters, So you know, how's that working.

19:54 Because the US people love to eat midst or ground beef.

19:56 You call it.

19:57 That's what you eat, Grumman.

19:58 The rest of world likes steaks, So your important export of difference to me. So the state business is a different price to the ground meat business. So you have all different kinds of things happening. But the fundamental problem is there are not enough cattle plying demand supplying the demand.

20:12 Haber.

20:12 I want to segue to a big recent headline in the energy world, which is the UAE leaving OPEK. And it's been a habit on the podcast to describe relations between the UAE and Saudi Arabia as frenemies for many, many years. However, I think we might be dropping like the fr part fairly quickly. What does this all mean?

20:31 I mean, this is the biggest challenge that I think OPEK has faced. I mean, typically it said that the four more dangerous wars in global finances.

20:41 This time is different.

20:42 I think that the three most dangerous wars in analyzing the oil market are OPEK is dead. I will say that it's not dead, really bleeding and bleeding badly. Many countries have left OPEC before, see if I can remember all of them. It was Indonesia, Katar, Ecuador and I'm missing I mean the UE and I'm missing one.

21:07 I know I'm missing one. I would come back to me Angola. Sorry, I was going to get that.

21:13 Sorry.

21:15 They were different for two three important reasons.

21:19 The UAE have the ambition to produce a lot more oil, and they have been very clear that about the capacity of four and a half million bars a day, they want to go to five million dollars a day and potentially higher. They have the geological endowment to produce that extra oil, and they have also the money to back the dreams that they have on producing more, with money to build the facilities, so they will produce a lot more oil. And I think that that really brings a big challenge to to Saudi Arabia. And if and when the Strada Hormus reopens, we can't have a situation in which for a while there's going to be demand for thestroil because global inventory is are going to be are going to need to be replenished because a lot of

22:02 countries are going to build larger to take inventories. But at some point you're going to see a race for market share. And if we have a race for market share, then everyone wants to produce more oil than the price of oil has.

22:16 To come down.

22:18 OPEK is as strong as their members ability to endure financial pain, but withholding barrels from the market, barrels that they can produce that they decide we are not going to put them on the market. And if you look through that Lens OPEK, the two most powerful members were Saudi Arabia and the United Arab EMI dates those were the members that they were holding. They were withholding the most barrels from the market and in a percentage spaces comparing how much spare capacity they were living aside to their production. When the UE was doing more, was taking more pain than the South is. That's why the UE living is so important. And also because you could have others.

23:04 I mean, if we do have elections in Venezuela at some point, and I hope that we see that towards the end of the year or the beginning of next year, and.

23:12 The opposition wins.

23:13 The opposition has been historically very hostile to OPEK, so we can't have another. And Venezuela is another country that wants to produce more oil, that has the geological endowment to produce more oil. Question is does Venezuela have either the money to do it themselves?

23:31 Probably not. Can it put the financial incentives.

23:35 For big oil to go there? At the moment they are not there, but you know, over time, perhaps they are.

23:41 Speaking of big sort of policy, earthquakes, whatever. Trason, We're here just about a year ago in London, right in the wake of a liberation day. How are the farmers feeling about American trade policy these days?

23:56 Morgan, you can't swear on this podcast.

23:58 Well, yeah, no, I think American trade policy has been not as bad as American foreign exchange policy. Okay, that's that's like if we look at like for European exports to the US, it's generally higher value stuff like wine, butter, stuff like that. We don't stray much meat with us because you feel the meatful of hormones. We don't want that, and we don't want nice, healthy meat. So it's like it's butter and wine is the two things we export over and they're higher end products. They can be sure with Kerry gold not to mention a brand and beat that up as well, but it's like three times the price of US borter and excels in US retail, and wine is French wine, French band is kind of the same.

24:38 So it's the FX rate that's done more damage, I think than because it has led to uneven demand, like US plus is going to do something, so people will buy stock for three months and then they'll have the stock and stock down and then you'll buy three months to stock again. So it's kind of led the difference to trade flows. But market shares in general market hasn't changed as much as the headliner suggests, but it has.

25:00 The thing that's left to mark is the back to the dollar is twenty percent weaker than the wall was a year and a better ago, and I guess they had the bigger problem. I think one of the biggest changes we're seeing is more on the consumer side than the policy side. Like we talk a lot about GLP one, so people are eating a lot less. They're in a lot less and also in a lot less in what we callt QSRs quick serve of restaurants. People are I'm buying pizza so much because pizzas of food. My drugs don' want that.

25:24 But what they are doing is they're tanking up in protein. Everything you see. I'm sure you've seen the advertise everywhere protein here protein. There a lot of dairy companies in the US, prickly and in Europe as well. See it. They're making dairy produm way protein. It's called in order to get Way. You produced cheese. Thirty years ago, we produced.

25:42 Loads of cheese, and the way was what we fed to the pigs because like, who wants to drink way?

25:46 Like now we produced way and the cheese is what.

25:50 We don't know what to do with this, but it still makes the best thing to do with a lead of milk or sorry, a pint of milk. For the US, if you have a point, you want to make money on it, you're split it into cheese and way. You get the way, you turn it into WPI, which is a high protein way, and then you sell that to anyone making any food in the world because they want to put twenty grams or tartar grams and portragrams away on their product because they can sell it for twenty and that's where the market is at the moment. And right now in the US, I think there's maybe four or five absolutely massive cheese plants being built. So you're going to be swimming in cheese in the UK, it's American cheese.

26:29 And then let's be clear and what you swim with it.

26:31 Yeah, but but that is that is face right now at the thought of eating American cheese.

26:37 It gets worse for.

26:38 Having it does get worse on it.

26:39 But my question is how you guys have surviving on just California and olive oil.

26:44 You never start on life in secan India.

26:46 So we're gonna see that in the next of yours there could be loads of cheese and those ways, lots of investments in that side of things. The work for the producers at the moment. They're trying to get their way, so their milk turned into way and cheese as quick as again. So this not making harder cheeses. Everyone's making soft cheese now because you can turn a soft cheese on the market very quickly. The price for cheese has collapsed and it's going to get lower. But you're not able to get an age cheese because no one's gonna at scale anyway, because no one's got to tie the capital up for six months or twelve months, I'll just market.

27:16 We're looking at markets falling down becau. Everyone's going to producing cheese. So if you want a nice age one year two year old cheese, buy them now because the harder to get them in.

27:25 Two years to this is actually a disaster.

27:28 Everyone's going to be making mozzarella and cream cheese and whatever they put in spray cans in America is all the cheese you're gonna really get.

27:36 Have you just going back to oil for a second, away from the cheese and curds and whey. One thing that you keep hearing from the Trump administration is there's an expectation that the US will be able to, you know, manage its own supply and that as prices go up, you're going to see that supply side response from the drillers, and we're going to be a wash in oil. Is that playing out at all?

28:00 We're going to have a response from the drillers.

28:02 I think that US production in twenty twenty six will be higher that we have expected six twelve months ago. I think that we are beginning to see some significant American companies talking about increasing production. I think that one hundred dollars oil, you were rising production at eighty or eighty five, certainly you are going to increase production more at one hundred. But we are talking about a couple of one hundred thousand dollars a day extra compared to a hole in the market of ten million.

28:31 It's not really going to move the needle.

28:33 But yeah, will I will expect to see US production by the end of the year to be higher than I had respected.

28:41 A question for the Americans what is the oil price? The gas price in America that actually caused political trouble? Like is it six eight ten dollars a barrel?

28:50 Where does that happen?

28:51 It's all relative.

28:52 I don't know.

28:52 I live in Manhattan. I don't I'm an out of touch New Yorker. But yeah, for for that's when you really get it, I think anyway, Javea and Lorcan thank you so much for coming and joining us at Oddlats.

29:05 Love.

29:05 Thank Breg, Thank you.

29:20 That was our episode recorded live in London on May seventh at Wilton's Music Hall. Shall we leave it there?

29:26 Let's leave it there.

29:27 This has been another episode of the aud Loots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

29:32 And I'm Jill Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Arman, Dashil Bennett at Dashbodkile Brooks at Calebrooks and Kevin Lozano at Kevin Lloyd Lisano.

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