An Uncertain Future for Middle Eastern Aviation

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm Dan and I'm Alex and welcome back to on air please to have you with us as we continue to look at the state of the global aviation sector in light of what is happening in the Middle East that's having an impact globally but before we get into that Dan how are you holding up how are you?

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm fine. [SPEAKER_00]: I'm fine. [SPEAKER_00]: How are you? [SPEAKER_00]: Not too bad. [SPEAKER_00]: Not too bad. [SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, both of us are very much immersed into this heavy, heavy news cycle. [SPEAKER_00]: There is not only inflicting a lot of suffering globally on on on human lives, but also [SPEAKER_00]: in terms of other areas of impact is taking an impact economically, socially on the environment, but also on aviation, the sector that you and I are working and followed so closely.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think it's just interesting that the difference in impacts versus when we had recorded a week ago in terms of airlines adjusting to perhaps this being around for quite a bit longer, [SPEAKER_00]: and also airlines having to take some decisions in light of the continued conflict. [SPEAKER_00]: Where shall we start?

[SPEAKER_00]: Should we just, I guess, do a quick recap round-up of where we are as of now, middle of, that's to that. [SPEAKER_00]: middle of Tuesday, this episode will be with you guys Wednesday from the morning or ever you are in your feeds nice and early. [SPEAKER_00]: They may have been developments obviously throughout Tuesday afternoon that might not feature on this episode because of the way that everything is so fast moving.

[SPEAKER_00]: But as of now, if we look at the big golf hubs that are home [SPEAKER_00]: in a 24 hour period because there is no other area on earth with that handles such volume of transit. [SPEAKER_00]: These hubs do buy operational but having to take pretty regular suspensions due to safety concerns and their space closing before it reopens again and that's been a bit of a pattern.

[SPEAKER_00]: Etihad, again, with Abu Dhabi, they are resuming in a more gradual way, also I think, being cautious in terms of the global operation and Etihad's reach. [SPEAKER_00]: Etihad is the smaller airline of the UAE, so it hasn't been the big bounce back yet and understandably they can't, because there is still active conflict, including near to that territory.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then over in Dahlha, the same kind of picture as Attihad with Qatar, which is still subject to a cap imposed to them by the Civil Aviation Authority. [SPEAKER_00]: Again, citing safety concerns and protecting passengers, so the S-Base is closed with only a partial opening and that's keeping a cap on their operations there.

[SPEAKER_00]: They've been quite clever with a lot of outstation flights, so there are charter flights. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you've seen over here. [SPEAKER_01]: I wanted to talk about that. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so actually, let's go into that now while we stick to that subject, so which ones have you spotted?

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm in Thailand at the moment, so I've really had my eye on the number of unique routes that Qatar Airways has been operating from Thailand, seemingly most on a one single basis, just around trip to the likes of Copenhagen, Madrid, Madrid, got an E380, and there have been a lot of these [SPEAKER_01]: very COVID-era-esque flights.

[SPEAKER_01]: I can't remember if I said this, but my photos folder from March 2020 and April 2020 is just full of screenshots of all the random routes that airlines were flying. [SPEAKER_01]: I remember, I saw Qatar Airways flying from Pakistan to Manchester. [SPEAKER_01]: We had SAS flying to Buenos Aires.

[SPEAKER_01]: All these routes you never normally see. [SPEAKER_01]: And now, at least in some ways, we've been seeing that pop-up again, and specifically with Qatar, I thought it was interesting to see how they took quite a different approach to Emirates and Etihad. [SPEAKER_01]: And in this case, obviously one that I think passengers would prefer because they get to fly a limited number of passengers, but some get to fly the original airline they booked, maybe even get a direct flight as opposed to connecting, like you were originally supposed to, [SPEAKER_01]: and they get to avoid connecting somewhere where they maybe don't feel safe at the moment.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, a lot of these passengers were passengers that had bookings, for example, from Bangkok to the UK or Bangkok to Madrid via Doha, of course, given that's the hub and spoke module that these big golf carriers operate. [SPEAKER_00]: Instead of re-booking them or re-rooting them with Turkish airlines like some passengers were re-booked to or other carriers, if they were still at that point of origin, [SPEAKER_00]: non-stop direct chart of flights.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's funny because there are a lot of people that often ask, you know when we have casual conversations and this is moving away from the subject of war for the time being, you know when we have casual conversations with relatives and they ask things like oh, to [SPEAKER_00]: Do Emirates fly from Stockholm to New York?

[SPEAKER_00]: And we love because we find it preposterous, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Or like they say, Dan, I want advice. [SPEAKER_00]: I was thinking of flying from London to Miami. [SPEAKER_00]: And I'm just wondering if Singapore Airlines is something that I should look into. [SPEAKER_00]: And we're like, [SPEAKER_00]: You know, what?

[SPEAKER_00]: Because you're crazy. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, there's there's there's not really that understanding With the public that actually airlines are not given such approvals in almost all cases like 98% of cases you can't just rock up [SPEAKER_00]: from, in a whole different market and say, hey, you know, your passengers in your market, well, we're going to connect them to passengers in that market and ask from a totally different market, we're going to benefit with all the revenue from that.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's not how, that's not what's allowed in aviation. [SPEAKER_00]: Now to come back to the war, in terms of extraordinary circumstance, in the effort to repatriate those who have been stranded, those permissions are typically [SPEAKER_00]: And that's why Madrid pops up with a Qatar-O-380 from Bangkok.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's why we've seen Qataris operate flights from Kathmandu to London without stopping in about these extraordinary routes that in a normal period would be great if they existed, but would never ever get the go ahead. [SPEAKER_00]: But I think the most significant one that we spotted the other day.

[SPEAKER_00]: was London Miami, right, on a Q-Sweet A350 1000, which I mean, stuck with the situation that I'm serious. [SPEAKER_00]: Can you imagine the uproar if that was an actual route to continue with that would be phenomenal in the interest of the passenger experience in all cabins, but the U.S. carriers would never allow that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Nope. [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, we do have United spreading it some lovely friendly skies in Asia flying from Hong Kong to Bangkok and to Vietnam, but in generally, Hong Kong is like a city of fifth freedom market. [SPEAKER_01]: So you can fly to so many places in Asia on random airlines that don't have hubs there.

[SPEAKER_01]: So certain cities are more generous with that than others. [SPEAKER_01]: Bangkok is also actually in general in Southeast Asia. [SPEAKER_01]: I guess extending up to a level of this, not all that uncommon. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: Actually, we spoke about that in our Singapore episode, didn't wait when we were in Singapore and we was examining the number of airlines that had set up shop there, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Because it was easy to do so compared to other other markets. [SPEAKER_01]: I guess, you know, we're just having a random sprawling discussion, but one question that a lot of airlines are posing now as we were in the third week is [SPEAKER_01]: What happens if this continues long term? [SPEAKER_01]: How do we proceed?

[SPEAKER_01]: Because as we've said every week, it's chaos trying to get between Australia and Europe or Asia and Europe at the moment, because of the severe lack of capacity. [SPEAKER_01]: So airlines obviously need to start looking well how if this continues way longer than anyone hopes it does, how do we then adjust but how do we do that in a way that maybe isn't too big or risk considering the things could open up at any time.

[SPEAKER_01]: So an example is that we literally just got news of British airways confirming that they will return to Melbourne, Australia after [SPEAKER_01]: British Airways is obviously the UK and Australia have very strong ties. [SPEAKER_01]: So British Airways has been flying a London Singapore Sydney for quite a while.

[SPEAKER_01]: Virgin Atlantic used to fly that route as well, but cut it. [SPEAKER_01]: Now this new flight will be operating via Kuala Lumpur, so London Kuala Lumpur to Melbourne on a 77. [SPEAKER_01]: And I think they feel quite confident announcing that because [SPEAKER_01]: It's still such a profitable market with so much demand that for guardless of what happens, they figure, all right, we can start selling this and although the important caveat here is that this route is not going to launch for 10 months.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you might think [SPEAKER_01]: Well, things could be back to normal then, and that's definitely the case, but we've already seen a very strong shift all the way throughout the calendar of which airlines people are choosing to book with because of the uncertainty, even if someone's booking a trip in 10 months, they're thinking, well, you know what?

[SPEAKER_01]: I'd rather transit in Southeast Asia if that's an option, an affordable option than transit through the Middle East, which is why we're also seeing [SPEAKER_01]: A lot of feels weird to say, but good deals on Middle Eastern Airlines, which we'll get to in the Q&A, because we've got a lot of questions about those attractive prices and what you guys think we and you should do about that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no, you're absolutely spot on. [SPEAKER_00]: And that London, Kuala Lumpur, Australia, Melbourne, Australia, a route. [SPEAKER_00]: It's such a shame that it takes something like this for B.A. [SPEAKER_00]: to only then introduce it because it's something that their passengers were calling for for a long time.

[SPEAKER_00]: But also, it's yet another example that in order to survive such crises in order to maintain and British [SPEAKER_00]: that solid financial statement, airlines have to be agile. [SPEAKER_00]: This is all about agility. [SPEAKER_00]: Aviation and air travel is exposed to everything. [SPEAKER_00]: It is [SPEAKER_00]: inherently exposed to everything from weather, geopolitics, someone's angry tweet, airspace closure, the weaponisation of airspace routines, tensions, negative headlines, the price of oil, the rhetoric that emerges from one side of the political art to the other, all of these things end up shaping [SPEAKER_00]: Align operations every minute of every day even when you the listener perceive us to be in a state of calm even when there is very few obvious kind of louder conflicts dominating the news agenda even then there is always something and if it's not any of the factors I just mentioned then the lithium batteries are back the power banks are here to scare us and shape their travel again

[SPEAKER_00]: then it's also the legislation and the IT outages, the GPS spoofing, the constant rollercoaster that it is to be in airline and to have to navigate your way through this. [SPEAKER_00]: And so airlines have to foreplay significantly but crucially they have to stay agile. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, let me ask you this. [SPEAKER_01]: I was having a discussion with friends the other day about uh, remember when we were teenagers like the early 20-10s just seemed so peaceful and idyllic in comparison to this time we're living in now. [SPEAKER_01]: They're like, [SPEAKER_01]: No, what do you mean?

[SPEAKER_01]: Like the world has always been like this. [SPEAKER_01]: We were just too young to realize. [SPEAKER_01]: And that is true to some extent. [SPEAKER_01]: But I think I want to ask you, you know, looking at aviation, it certainly feels like it was a whole lot easier to be an airline in terms of operations airspace available and everything.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you look at 2013, for example, or the early 2010s. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I agree with that sentiment. [SPEAKER_00]: I do and I don't think it's because we simply didn't [SPEAKER_00]: hear about as much because we did and you know that was the financial crisis and you know seven and whatnot and there were there are different bits of conflict that would pop up here and there and and there was all of the fallout in the U.S. is long wars quote against terrorism and whatnot and there was you know there was these things did pop up but definitely [SPEAKER_00]: not at this.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like this, this is, this, these things come around so fast that I believe as a public we have de-sensitized. [SPEAKER_00]: from so much of what we would speak about in 2013 for weeks ends up being the news of that morning and then we move on because there is just so much that happens constantly and yes of course we are fed so much we are so globally aware of what's going on everywhere and we didn't know to that extent or we didn't have that as [SPEAKER_00]: in his clearer picture, well over a decade ago, more, but I still feel that when we look at the key big things that have happened that have shaped aviation and another area of life, it definitely seems all be crammed in in the last kind of ten years.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's just a lot and it doesn't help the social media rage and the the the the [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's the erraticness as well of how politics has shaped all of this and the earth. [SPEAKER_00]: I always, and I don't want to talk about this subject, but I do feel, and this is not me endorsing it either side, but I do feel that since Brexit, [SPEAKER_00]: not that it has anything to do with Brexit, but I pinpoint that as like Brexit and Trump's first term and then shortly after this and then the pandemic and then the Afghanistan withdrawal and then that that's just [SPEAKER_00]: there's a lot in in that bit and I was in my head, I don't know, I can benchmark the pre Brexit.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't feel like there was this crazy endless news cycle that directly shaped aviation and I was always involved with news and knowing what's happening in the sector and as I said, I mentioned what did happen prior to that but it doesn't feel as much as this. [SPEAKER_00]: Do you agree?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, 100% and just thinking about what air space was accessible. [SPEAKER_01]: We always talk about where can airlines fly over? [SPEAKER_01]: In 2013, you could fly over Russia. [SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, that's a massive one for Western Airlines to be able to fly over Russia. [SPEAKER_01]: They could fly over Ukraine, which even passed 2014 certain parts of Ukraine were avoided toward the East, but in general, you could fly over Ukraine after that.

[SPEAKER_01]: So in 2013, that was a big one. [SPEAKER_01]: The Civil War in Yemen began in 2015, so you could still fly over Yemen at that point. [SPEAKER_01]: So, and of course, now we're avoiding most parts of the Middle East, so that really, as we've said many times, airlines are left these days with a tiny little slither a corridor that they can go through to get from east to west if they're using an orderly route.

[SPEAKER_01]: So if they're going to Korea, [SPEAKER_01]: or China, it really isn't much left compared to what was available back then. [SPEAKER_01]: Of course, aircraft have gotten more efficient, so that's what offsets that. [SPEAKER_01]: But the longer flight times, the in certain ways less choice is quite crazy.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm interested to look at the data to try and figure out if [SPEAKER_00]: you know, if it's just a feeling or if categorically there has just been so much more that is determined and shaped aviation in the last 10 years than the 10 years before that. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, if we go back even further 2001 and 9-11, they said that nobody would fly after that.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, they said that's in for a travel. [SPEAKER_00]: You know, no one's going to fly domestically or internationally with the fear of what had just happened. [SPEAKER_00]: And [SPEAKER_00]: Like it always does thankfully, air travel recovered and the sector recovered and it was a long build back, but it had to take place and matured and during that period, new aircraft arrived, new technologies, Airbus and Boeing went further.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it does, it never stopped innovation or progress or, you know, progression within the industry and so the industry is Yeah, only two familiar with a crisis or two second point on that little slither that you were talking about now. [SPEAKER_00]: I'm just I've just opened it up on flight radar [SPEAKER_00]: It is packed.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you just go on flight radar now and you have a look at the corridor over Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia, which is on one side you've got as well as now. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: So if you're on one side you've got the the Kaspian sea to the to the east and then on the west that they're coming up just off of the coast of Georgia heading more into Europe.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's a small corridor and right now I'm looking at [SPEAKER_00]: Every British show is Arastana, FedEx, DHL, Singapore Airlines, Turkish, Pegasus, Air France, Malaysia, Uh, who's this? [SPEAKER_00]: I can't see that name. [SPEAKER_00]: Atlas, China, Eastern, Virgin Atlantic. [SPEAKER_00]: They're all there.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is just in this version of Atlantic, another version of Atlantic about crossing coming from Bombay. [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe we should just have a whole episode where we live, commentate as if it's like a horse race. [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, British airway. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: I could see that. [SPEAKER_00]: I could see that would be fun. [SPEAKER_00]: I would watch that in a thousand show. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, Korean air coming in fresh from in China. [SPEAKER_00]: Here we go. [SPEAKER_00]: Look at that. [SPEAKER_00]: Wow. [SPEAKER_00]: With the beautiful new delivery.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it's the anniversary of the event that we went to with some cool friends this week, isn't it? [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it is. [SPEAKER_01]: But that corridor is a life line right now for airline. [SPEAKER_01]: Yes. [SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, we can just hope and pray that nothing happens there because [SPEAKER_01]: If that also closes, then we're truly in deep, I mean, in that case, we're kind of in World War three, I guess, at that point, but in terms of airlines and the airline industry, that would have enormous implications.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we should be grateful that airlines still have that. [SPEAKER_01]: over time these things always evolve for good or bad back before 2013 airlines were of course and we know until very recently until 2024 all airlines were avoiding afghan airspace so that is now being used by pretty much everyone maybe not because it's the safest but because it's one of the only options left and it's better than the alternatives.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's fascinating because, you know, Afghanistan, let's just remind ourselves under Taliban rule, right, at least for most of it. [SPEAKER_00]: And so we have the airspace now being perceived as to be [SPEAKER_00]: safer, the most parts of the Middle East that would ordinarily be handling, you know, thousands of flights a day just because of the way that the situation is evolving.

[SPEAKER_00]: Ukraine was also, of course, a key overflight area, a major one, in fact, between East and West and pretty 2014, that was, again, losing Ukraine from an aviation perspective for overflight. [SPEAKER_00]: was costly for airlines in difficult and then it caused Russia to go to a greater extent for so many airlines, the little finair, the finisher line that was suddenly left with loads of capacity and had built the fastest way to Asia based on Russian overflight.

[SPEAKER_00]: Syrian airspace pre 2011 of course that was really really well utilized and then not so much after due to the Syrian Civil War and now again I'll answer back there Iraq has always been a case of kind of on-off on-off Libya we didn't mention Libya but Libya again was a very [SPEAKER_00]: a very key transit route that pre-2011 was used constantly for flights between Europe and Central Africa but also Middle East in some scenarios and that was massively restricted in 2011 due to the Civil War again there.

[SPEAKER_00]: Iran has been open and closed throughout all these years. [SPEAKER_00]: North Korea, maybe worth a mention, doesn't really get used to it, but it's not that big, it's not that big, so No, not really, it's not that like narrative. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, yeah, let's let's let's quickly again pivot to these elements that are having to stay at your own what they're doing So British Airways, we always refer to them.

[SPEAKER_00]: We often refer to them rather as Very very very cautious in terms of their approach to their network, right? [SPEAKER_00]: They definitely take moves [SPEAKER_00]: a little earlier to withdraw or to just kind of not wait around. [SPEAKER_00]: They tend to act first right that the first mover.

[SPEAKER_00]: They have cancelled all flights into Dubai until at least June, and the Alan has also said just yesterday that it won't fly, nor went flying to Amman, Bahrain, Tel Aviv, [SPEAKER_00]: until after May 31st, so in June, Qatar, they've got plans for May, but let's see if that goes ahead. [SPEAKER_00]: I would have been cancelled until later this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of people read into that, like, because it's what it seems to be, you know, why are they not going to Abu Dhabi for the rest of the year? [SPEAKER_00]: That's definitely to do with the fact that they are. [SPEAKER_00]: mitigating risk and recognizing that I don't need to fly to Abu Dhabi, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not Abu Dhabi has since it was launched. [SPEAKER_01]: It's been seasonals. [SPEAKER_01]: So now at the end of March, they were [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, wait. [SPEAKER_01]: Actually, maybe I'm, you know, correct. [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think it. [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think it. [SPEAKER_00]: I think it wasn't only season.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that this was a route that was planned for year round for this year. [SPEAKER_00]: And has now been postponed, should not return until later in the year, much later in the year. [SPEAKER_00]: And again, that's, Abu Dhabi is not the, it's not the most [SPEAKER_00]: But it was a profitable, but it isn't really a busy route for BA, basically, and it's not that part.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we often see BA do this way. [SPEAKER_00]: It doesn't mean that other routes are necessarily performing better than Abu Dhabi. [SPEAKER_00]: But what we tend to see them do is take a stance where they mitigate, reduce their risk by removing something out of the equation. [SPEAKER_00]: So they assess where they need to fly, and then OK, if we don't absolutely have to fly to Abu Dhabi, but we're still going to be flown to Dubai just down the road, then let's take Abu Dhabi out of the equation to again mitigate that risk.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's what we're seeing there. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, I think you're right. [SPEAKER_01]: What about Riyadh? [SPEAKER_01]: Have [SPEAKER_00]: the flights to read, because there are, I mean, that's a kind of defiance. [SPEAKER_00]: Yes. [SPEAKER_00]: So, no, but it will continue to fly to, um, to, to read the from to read and together, yes, which have obviously been less affected.

[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, I see those closures. [SPEAKER_00]: They are flying. [SPEAKER_00]: They are operational. [SPEAKER_01]: They are flying. [SPEAKER_01]: That's interesting because version is not. [SPEAKER_01]: badging is not right so so virgin was the remember guys when we spoke about virgin being the ones to return to Dubai when everyone was like what after just a few days then they stopped because they ended up having to turn around so they stopped Dubai and re-ad now apparently BA isn't re-ad and virgin is not so a bit of a you know swinging back on fourth on the strategies there [SPEAKER_00]: Somebody asked me recently, just the other day they said, oh, how are all of the golf airlines working together?

[SPEAKER_00]: Are they kind of having shared meetings and discussing their approach together to navigate the crisis? [SPEAKER_00]: Are they taking the same kind of stance? [SPEAKER_00]: And I kind of looked at him like he was mad and said, [SPEAKER_00]: you must be joking, they don't. [SPEAKER_00]: That's not how works.

[SPEAKER_00]: These are separate airlines of separate countries of separate sovereign wealth funds with separate governance. [SPEAKER_00]: There is no link. [SPEAKER_00]: And in fact, in this scenario, these islands do not communicate their plans to each other. [SPEAKER_00]: They find out as we find out just once things are established and done.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it's again, just these are things that maybe are so obvious to us. [SPEAKER_00]: And we don't even want to mention, yeah, we don't even bring up. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: But that worth mentioning because people, you know, crosses their mind. [SPEAKER_00]: Let me take a couple of the comments that we had on last week's episode.

[SPEAKER_00]: Someone had put, um, there was quite a bit of sentiment about the, [SPEAKER_00]: fact that flying from Australia to Europe is now quite difficult, at good energy under Scott 50 writes, I just arrived in Melbourne this morning after flying with Singapore Airlines from Heathrow. [SPEAKER_00]: I was expecting the flight to be full and was very surprised how many empty seats there were on the plane.

[SPEAKER_00]: There were spare seats across all classes, this was not [SPEAKER_00]: what I was expecting at all. [SPEAKER_00]: I can see you replied saying that was surprising and another person, another listener commented saying that I'm checking in for BA's Sydney flight now which also operates by Singapore and it's showing at 99%.

[SPEAKER_00]: So perhaps that was just an unusual one off but definitely we're seeing that the loads between Europe for example and Australia are really high because of all this capacity that's just not in the market anymore, right? [SPEAKER_01]: precisely, and I guess there's always the possibility that Singapore Airlines severely messed up its pricing, for example, last minute, they were trying to catch people, they went to high and everyone who had an option rebooked elsewhere, but yeah, that of course that is surprising.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I imagine that was a very lucky situation out of all these very full flights. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, then we have another comment from a listener who and I think many will resonate with this because it's just that. [SPEAKER_00]: But you know, it's late May. [SPEAKER_00]: Let me read the question and then you're going to.

[SPEAKER_00]: So she says, [SPEAKER_00]: I have so much anxiety over the fact that I'm supposed to fly Emirates on a flight from Melbourne to Munich via Dubai of course on the 28th of May and the uncertainty about the layer that is so frustrating I feel like I am in limbo. [SPEAKER_00]: I wish I could just fly Singapore or Cafe if only to have the certainty and I think so many people have been in touch with us with that where perhaps it's not even the worry of being caught up in the situation itself.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's the fact that these are big trips that people have saved their money for, that have planned ahead from what not, and now they're looking thinking because of luck of the drawer and they didn't book an Asian carrier and at the moment there's [SPEAKER_00]: and they have a book and with a golf carrier, late May could be, I would love to think that things were perfectly normal by late May of course, but at the same time, she just has to wait and see and that's not, you know, that's just, that's not what you want is it in the build up to a big trip.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, let's talk about, I've spent the past week advising [SPEAKER_01]: So many people I know, everyone I've met has some sort of trip that is affected by this. [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe not. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, affected right now, but has the potential to be affected by this in a few months.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I imagine it's the same for you. [SPEAKER_01]: What type of advice are you giving people, let's say, with a trip in June? [SPEAKER_00]: at the moment. [SPEAKER_00]: So with the trip that touches the Middle East, for example, a layover, like an hour, five minutes and so on. [SPEAKER_00]: So I'm trying to reassure in that typically over very recent history the last four or five years.

[SPEAKER_00]: These situations, specifically those that are led by the current president in the US, we have seen time and time again that we have seen time and time again that these things can just finish and go away just as fast as they came around and that things come bounce back. [SPEAKER_00]: to normal just as fast as they deteriorated and I think this is especially true when trying to analyze anything that involves Trump because the reality is that you know there's a reason why they're asking him every day are you going to end it today you're going to end it today he is very much in control of the situation but but also this is not [SPEAKER_00]: You know, this is not for the typical defense and war and a list to make their projections on.

[SPEAKER_00]: I was reading an assessment that their projections are simply to astute and simply to consider it of ordinary governance. [SPEAKER_00]: Instead, we're talking about someone who's very, yeah, of rationality. [SPEAKER_00]: Instead, we're talking about irrationality, right? [SPEAKER_00]: And no one really understands what's in the head of Trump and therefore, when we look back [SPEAKER_00]: these kind of things are bit with Venezuela, bit with what happened with the 12-day war as he refers to it with Iran last June 2025, with different things that have fled up.

[SPEAKER_00]: When he and history has decided it's over, subduing it ends. [SPEAKER_00]: And it disappears from the new cycle the next morning, and it takes a couple days to get back to normal and suddenly the airlines are back to normal. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, I don't see that being exactly the case here because so much damage has been done.

[SPEAKER_00]: We are three weeks into it. [SPEAKER_00]: It has been incredibly, just think of all the cash that aligns a burning through and that burning through, which we're talking three figure millions daily. [SPEAKER_00]: And with that, [SPEAKER_00]: It's not going to be the clean bounce back that we have seen previously, but it doesn't mean that the damage is done and that's why I've been reassuring.

[SPEAKER_00]: keep an open mind. [SPEAKER_00]: Try to determine some backup options if you really, really want certainty, and you don't want to wait and see, then hopefully your airline or your dates are within the period of flexibility for your airline whereby you can cash out such as a refund, for example, and rebook with an, for example, an Asian carrier and that gives you certainty.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you are more [SPEAKER_00]: most likely will be better by then. [SPEAKER_00]: And you understand that the bounce back will happen to to quite an extent, maybe not fully, but to quite an extent, then I would say, let's have patients less weighted out, and we hope for the best. [SPEAKER_00]: But for many, that's not good enough, and I get that.

[SPEAKER_00]: absolute certainty especially when it's these are bookings that they have paid for they're not talking about their corporate work trips they're talking about connecting with loved ones something they planned a year ago and for them now they're thinking the timing of this is just horrendous right?

[SPEAKER_01]: I like that optimism and I want to agree, I hope you're right, my advice to people who really want that certainty that, okay, I can go ahead and book hotels, I can book tours, I can book whatever I want without wondering, will I suddenly not have a flight and other plans that are maybe non-refundable.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, [SPEAKER_01]: What I've been telling most people is look, if you're willing to book a backup, that maybe is refundable for a $100 fee or at most $200. [SPEAKER_01]: Are you willing to pay at most $1 or $200 as a loss for the certainty that your trip will go ahead? [SPEAKER_01]: Because if you check the terms on even a lot of economy tickets, [SPEAKER_01]: Usually, if you're unless you're booking the most restrictive fair, it's around $100 each way between Europe and Asia to cancel.

[SPEAKER_01]: Sometimes it can be way more, so make sure you check. [SPEAKER_01]: But for the people I've spoken to, I've said, just book something through Southeast Asia or whatever it might [SPEAKER_01]: So that whatever happens if you're a original flight through the Middle East gets canceled You can read you can take your backup option and you get a free refund if you're original ticket doesn't get canceled And you'll you'd still prefer to take that then you can cancel your backup for one or two hundred dollars.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's fair All these airlines won't like me giving this advice, but I think that you know from a consumer perspective This is what makes most sense [SPEAKER_00]: And there will be many that will wonder, okay, but what about if they don't have the money to be able to book a backup booking, for example, because that's saved for the original booking, so what then?

[SPEAKER_00]: Mm-hmm, and I guess then you have to hope that your booking is within the period of flexibility with the airline, right? [SPEAKER_00]: And so it's actually 22 situation is if you determine that it is necessary for you to cash out from your existing booking, for example, with Etihad, let's say, and you don't want to fly via the golf, the problem that you may find yourself in, that is likely, but it's starting to stabilize [SPEAKER_00]: is that understandably so fairs are higher on the competitor alliance.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you're now probably going to pay more than you originally paid because all of that capacity no longer exists in the schedule and fairs have been extremely high. [SPEAKER_00]: Everyone has been sending me screenshots of how much it is to get. [SPEAKER_00]: from, for example, Thailand to London, for example, and it's just an extortion at which we touched on last week.

[SPEAKER_00]: I do see it starting stabilise though as that immediate group of passengers who were originally stranded, tens of thousands of people have been now re-accommodated. [SPEAKER_01]: That's right. [SPEAKER_01]: So, if someone can't afford the backup, I would say, if you haven't already, 100% just avoid making non-refundable plans and know in the back of your mind that this trip might not go add.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's a risk it might not, it could, but don't [SPEAKER_01]: planning everything toward it going ahead and making on refundable plans if you cannot get a backup flight is is very risky in my opinion. [SPEAKER_00]: I agree and this is yet again another way they remind out of [SPEAKER_00]: If you have the, if you are booking different parts of a, of a trip, just make sure that you're, you know, if you're able to, it is worth it in these volatile times to just go for the refundable options.

[SPEAKER_00]: They're free cancellation options and so on and keeping on top of that because they, they come into play with such great importance times like this and [SPEAKER_00]: And this is something with the global reach. [SPEAKER_00]: This is not something that, okay, well, I'm not going to the Middle East, so it doesn't affect me.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's not the case, especially when it involves massive carriers that are also having to adjust to the fact that they now have longer routes. [SPEAKER_00]: So, there are many carriers that have nothing to do with the Middle East. [SPEAKER_00]: They don't even fly there. [SPEAKER_00]: but because they use the airspace to overfly for overflight and instead they are now routing in different ways to move around the airspace they're having to take decisions in-house at their airlines to free up aircraft for longer routes to load more fuel there is a financial burden there and so other areas of the network are being squeezed to accommodate for example to prioritize the kangaroo route at the reach of Australia and this is why we keep going on that

[SPEAKER_00]: This is so important, it's so important that people are aware because this is something that is truly a global aviation story that yes is relating to a conflict in a particular region, the Middle East, but it's having that global impact. [SPEAKER_00]: Do you know, I've now had it confirmed, ten percent, it's a bit more, but ten percent of global air traffic.

[SPEAKER_00]: International passenger air traffic when this complex started on the 20th of February had gone suspended immediately. [SPEAKER_00]: Now that's a significant number, a significant percentage point for an industry that is completely made up on moving passengers from A to B via a plus and so on.

[SPEAKER_00]: So this is the other point is the supplier that this is having an effect on. [SPEAKER_00]: If you think about [SPEAKER_00]: airlines that are understandably worried now about if their services such as the vast catering agreements or the different things that feed into passenger experience.

[SPEAKER_00]: If that's still going to go ahead, are these airlines still going to be placing that big orders for luxury cabin interiors or will they find themselves in a different world, once this conflict is over, where perhaps maybe first class is not, you know, on the cards again for a golf carrier because there may be a sentiment of golf avoidance, we simply don't know that these are conversations [SPEAKER_00]: that airlines are planning for, and that's why we're seeing BA set up quite a limper to Melbourne, despite them being a partner of of catering dot heart.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's why we're seeing Abu Dhabi Kart, that's why, because they're having to make sure that these decisions keep them afloat, of course, but also reflect what the aftermath might be like and the sentiment around journeying via the gulf, because [SPEAKER_00]: I do believe that to some extent and perhaps in quite a significant way in the first six months, we will see a sentiment of golf avoidance for transit because people will not be trusting enough of the end whenever it comes.

[SPEAKER_00]: Is this genuinely the end of it or could this all flare up again out of nowhere as they perceived it did on February 28th? [SPEAKER_00]: Do you agree? [SPEAKER_01]: That's right. [SPEAKER_01]: I told you this on our call the other day that I think there will be avoidance until flying through the Gulf as the cheapest option because at the end of the day people are always looking for a deal and you know if you see you have a 90 minute connection things have calm down.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't personally think once things come down, it will be as bad as some people predict. [SPEAKER_00]: It could be as well as, of course, it could be a good advice. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_01]: But I think once things come down, airlines have the opportunity, assuming they're able to grab people with an attractive price to rebound quite quickly.

[SPEAKER_00]: um we have some questions here from just before we do okay just before we do on the theme of it being a truly global story you would have seen what's coming out of your the region where you are now just in the last few hours Sri Lanka has declared that Wednesdays are now off [SPEAKER_00]: as a work day.

[SPEAKER_00]: Wednesdays are now off across the country of Sri Lanka in order to conserve and protect fuel because of the impact of the war. [SPEAKER_00]: This is the latest in ultimately what has become a series of belt tightening measures that have been undertaken by many Asian countries, not just Sri Lanka, of course, since the war has [SPEAKER_00]: choked this straighten of horror moves and and and and all of the impacts there.

[SPEAKER_00]: The president let me just read you what the president Shalanca said The president Shalanca stating we must prepare for the worst But also we hope for the best. [SPEAKER_00]: I guess that's kind of been the theme of the advice we've been giving, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Reminding them not nearly Nearly 90% of all the oil and gas flowing through the straight-up homo's last year was of course Bound for Asia which is the world's largest oil importing region and [SPEAKER_00]: Thailand where you are now the government is urging people to swap that suits for short sleeve T's to reduce the reliance on air conditioning and Myanmar private vehicles are only allowed to operate on on alternate days depending on their license plate numbers.

[SPEAKER_00]: Bane Gladesh has brought forward Ramadan holidays in universities and introduced planned blackouts across the nation again to conserve energy and in the Philippines some government offices have mandated that staff work from home at least one day a week while President Froden and has banned non-essential travel in the public sector.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is touching every country in different ways and that's [SPEAKER_00]: truly a Middle East rooted story with such a global impact. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, pretty crazy. [SPEAKER_01]: So here we have some questions. [SPEAKER_01]: This question is sort of related to the situation now that Omanair has suddenly really been blown into the limelight.

[SPEAKER_01]: Paul asks us, have you discussed the weird choice of Omanair to opt for narrow bodies on medium and long haul flights? [SPEAKER_01]: And this is, you know, it's interesting here is that obviously Oman has become an easy way for people to exit the golf, because their flights are pretty much as normal.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're avoiding some aerospace, but it's not as disrupted as a lot of other places in the golf. [SPEAKER_01]: So Oman Air has really, [SPEAKER_01]: stood to benefit from this situation, ironically, and they've been putting in quite a few extra flights to London, to Bangkok, and to several European cities using narrow bodies.

[SPEAKER_01]: So they've been using narrow bodies to Europe for quite a while, but the benefit, I see of them preparing for that through the past year or two years of doing that is that now, [SPEAKER_01]: Any aircraft that is available, whenever it is available, they can send where it needs to go. [SPEAKER_01]: They've been sending a 737 to Rome on an extra flight, for example.

[SPEAKER_01]: I've seen that because I had a friend who took it. [SPEAKER_01]: So this is something a situation where just deploy every resource you have. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and agility is key, and that's what that's what I want us to need. [SPEAKER_00]: And I am pleased to see Oman Air find its feet with its agility in this crisis, because they've been so quiet for so long in trying to restructure and write size.

[SPEAKER_00]: And they're working quietly for this time behind the scenes to try to, you know, to try to begin that journey towards profitability. [SPEAKER_00]: And this, you know, that they are demonstrating the agility in this crisis, and it's good to see. [SPEAKER_00]: And they've also been a bit of a lifeline for a lot of people who have wanted to leave.

[SPEAKER_00]: and haven't been able to because of airspace closures also in the region so yeah they're doing awesome they're doing well Aaron comments on our YouTube video of the episode last week that Turkish and Ethiopians are now the only good options left connecting Asia and Europe with the Americas again kind of that sentiment that that feeling uncertain over the reliability of [SPEAKER_01]: Kevin has a series of questions that we could spend in a whole episode discussing.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's almost to the point where I want to spend next episode discussing this, but I just want to give you a preview because I think there's so much material here if this goes on. [SPEAKER_01]: So he says, long time listener, I'd like to know your speculative speculative takes on the positive on the possible aviation trends that might come from this crisis should it God forbid [SPEAKER_01]: So then he has a list here of potential trends or effects.

[SPEAKER_01]: So the effect on polar flights, the effect on rejecting the prohibition of Russian airspace, the potential for Emirates or Etihad to join an alliance. [SPEAKER_01]: fifth freedom routes and two stop itineraries replacing the Middle East by moving the hub and spoke model to stable regions and investments in high capacity or ultra long haul aircraft.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think several of these are such good discussion points that I really would like to save it for next week because it's, let's do that. [SPEAKER_01]: And interesting, you know, starting point, but just a little teaser because I think some of those will be fascinating to discuss. [SPEAKER_01]: Um, we have a message here from, uh, Garrett.

[SPEAKER_01]: Actually, we have several here that are not related to the crisis. [SPEAKER_01]: We'll take them just just to do something else. [SPEAKER_01]: I'm Garrett says, I've always been curious why more aircraft like the 77. [SPEAKER_01]: don't have more 242 configurations in economy versus 333.

[SPEAKER_01]: Do airlines have much of a preference or choice when ordering aircraft to select sea configurations? [SPEAKER_01]: As an avgeek that loves a window seat, but hates asking two people to get up to use the lavatory, I would much prefer a 242. [SPEAKER_01]: Which is why the A330 is so great in economy, right, Alex?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_01]: Fortunately, you know, 333 gets you one more seat per row than two, four, two. [SPEAKER_01]: Japan Airlines famously in some situations has done two, four, three, I think, or two, two, four, two, five, three, something along those lines in order to offer more seating options for more configurations of people, which I think it's quite a cool idea.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I agree. [SPEAKER_00]: And also, I was just kind of daydreaming at that point at, you know, those smaller aircraft where people think that they're booking the first row, but it turns out that on these regional aircraft, especially across Africa, really, really small turbo props, for example.

[SPEAKER_00]: And the first row is like a train where it's a four. [SPEAKER_00]: It's a quad seat. [SPEAKER_00]: You know, those videos always go viral. [SPEAKER_00]: That's the sort of thing you were discussing different the seats are facing each other, like a train, like the four seat with a table in the middle.

[SPEAKER_01]: Which honestly is not bad if you're traveling with people you know, but terrible if you're traveling with strangers also, or everyone else, it's bad for everyone else on that flight because suddenly there will be some very exciting people in the first two hatching arrive. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: you're just looking forward and then like you keep catching the passenger's eye. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that's true. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, look, there's so much more that we could be discussing and there's so much, so many other areas, not least the fact that Aegean have cancelled their rates of 21x11 against their advice.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're banned, but they're no idea. [SPEAKER_00]: They have literally abandoned our idea, we will explore that as well next week, what that means, why they're doing that because that's significant for an airline set on being a bit braver and then now backing out, why we're looking to that, we're looking to some other things as well, we'll probably have more updates, some quite short regarding what's happening.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and we'll dive into Kevin's topics as well. [SPEAKER_00]: And we'll look at Kevin's topics as well. [SPEAKER_00]: Lovely. [SPEAKER_00]: Okay. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, thank you always as well. [SPEAKER_00]: To the listeners, thanks guys for joining us. [SPEAKER_00]: Remember that you can send questions directly to our Instagram.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's at on air with Dan and Alex, which is all one work. [SPEAKER_00]: That's the Instagram username. [SPEAKER_00]: You can also leave a comment if you're listening to this episode on YouTube. [SPEAKER_00]: We will, we'll, we'll, we'll read your, your comments and your questions on the coming episodes.

[SPEAKER_01]: Precisely on that note, stay safe everyone and we will see you next week on air. [SPEAKER_01]: Bye bye. [SPEAKER_01]: See you soon.

An Uncertain Future for Middle Eastern Aviation

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