Middle East Crisis - Gulf Carrier Refunds, Reroutes & What To Do Now

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm Dan and I'm Alex and welcome back to on-air everyone, it's a new week, but it doesn't really feel like it, things are dragging on and not seemingly improving that much in the world of aviation, right, Alex? [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, this is definitely, you know, I think people are quite aware now, this is having global and a truly global impact across aviation extending right out into everything that aviation touches including tourism and travel hospitality and whatnot.

[SPEAKER_01]: We have airlines running to rewrite that financial forecast and outlook for the next six months. [SPEAKER_01]: There are airlines that are making big decisions to cut capacity that is affected or linked to the Middle East. [SPEAKER_01]: But also, I mean, this just flagged up now and this is worth mentioning given that it's so current and just for the record, we are recording on Wednesday this morning, European [SPEAKER_01]: are recording, so we're as current as can be.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thai airways have said down that they will raise all ticket prices. [SPEAKER_01]: by up to 15% to offset the surging fuel cost as the state owned carrier grapples with overwhelming demand from customers who are shifting their plans away from the Middle East but still need a way to travel either between Thailand and Europe or elsewhere in Asia via Bangkok to Europe.

[SPEAKER_01]: There are so many different angles to this crisis but I think it was become really relevant over the last few days in terms of [SPEAKER_01]: Public awareness is the process of oil right and fuel precisely. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, there's two questions that we're getting a lot Two different versions of the same thing the first is if I'm scheduled to fly through the Middle East in March for example What what should I do?

[SPEAKER_00]: What should I think about what should I prepare for and the other is? [SPEAKER_00]: If I'm scheduled to travel long haul at all, in March, is that even a good idea? [SPEAKER_00]: What should I think of then? [SPEAKER_00]: And those are obviously both very valid questions. [SPEAKER_00]: Definitely.

[SPEAKER_01]: So March, we are already 11 days in. [SPEAKER_01]: I feel it has flown because of the the way that the conflict has kind of encapsulated this time so far. [SPEAKER_01]: I think for anyone with a long haul booking that is east of Europe, so let's talk specifically fast about less assume a European market with long haul bookings east, so anywhere from Middle East to Asia, the Far East, Australia and so on.

[SPEAKER_01]: There will be a significant compulsion of those bookings that would have typically a travel via the Middle East, which [SPEAKER_01]: seemingly may be able to in a week or so or even in a limited capacity later this week, but it is shrouded in uncertainty and for most passengers for most people I get it, that uncertainty is just too much.

[SPEAKER_01]: Many of these people that have risen into us are saying that they have [SPEAKER_01]: been waiting and preparing and saving up. [SPEAKER_01]: And these trips were booked 10 months ago, a year ago, and so the timing is horrible because the last thing they want now is to be refreshing the airline app right up until check in time to figure out if their flight is actually going, or even if that second connection, that connection, that connection, that connection flight.

[SPEAKER_01]: will be operating. [SPEAKER_01]: So airlines are establishing some refund and flexible booking policies that cover most of March and these are the golf carriers that are predominantly doing this, meaning that if you are, for example, not traveling in the next five days or the next 10 days, but perhaps late March, most of the carriers are introducing or beginning to extend [SPEAKER_01]: for another day, but the problem with cashing out entirely, as you know Dan, is that good luck trying to find an additional option that is anywhere near to or close to the price that you had originally paid, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, 100%. [SPEAKER_00]: We spoke about that in our previous episode, it's basically impossible. [SPEAKER_00]: And that's the problem that the capacity that's omitted from the market [SPEAKER_00]: It's been interesting to see which airlines are adding additional frequencies. [SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, this is very difficult.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're on the tail end of the Ayato winter season. [SPEAKER_00]: And generally during the winter season, airlines are utilizing their long-haul aircraft specifically quite a bit less than they do in the summer. [SPEAKER_00]: So potentially for the coming weeks, there is some spare capacity there.

[SPEAKER_00]: We've seen the likes of British airways. [SPEAKER_00]: start flights, a temporary flights between Heathrow and Bangkok. [SPEAKER_00]: So they normally fly from Gatwick, now they're adding flights from Heathrow to Bangkok. [SPEAKER_00]: We've seen Kathy Pacific, put an extra frequency as we've seen Air Canada, sorry, specifically to London for Kathy Pacific, Air Canada doubling their flights to certain Indian destinations out of Canada because they would have put a lot of people through the golf hubs.

[SPEAKER_00]: previously Norse Atlantic. [SPEAKER_00]: I think also increasing certain frequencies to Southeast Asia. [SPEAKER_00]: So certain airlines are trying to let's let's say help out to be kind, but of course this is a fantastic revenue opportunity for Western Airlines or Asian Airlines even as oil prices increase.

[SPEAKER_00]: The real tricky question is, first of all, if you are traveling through the Middle East, throughout March, I think at this point it's very clear that you should be making some sort of backup plan if you can. [SPEAKER_00]: The real question is, and... [SPEAKER_00]: We often talk about how, you know, in the UK, especially when the media talks about flying and air travel, it's always framed as, oh, your holiday, your holiday, they never acknowledge the business travel is a big part of that.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's totally true. [SPEAKER_00]: Business travel is very important. [SPEAKER_00]: As we saw during COVID, business travel can be done remotely. [SPEAKER_00]: So there are ways that [SPEAKER_00]: might want to consider if that can be done remotely just because there is a risk let's say that your Thai airways flight or your British airways flight is canceled due to technical issues or something you might not be able to get a seat home to be re-booked on another airline for a long time.

[SPEAKER_00]: leaving you potentially stranded on a short trip. [SPEAKER_00]: Same thing, of course, goes for a vacation. [SPEAKER_00]: If, because just speaking for personal experience, I know when my Swedish relatives, for example, are going on a vacation to them. [SPEAKER_00]: It's very like, well, yeah, you know, [SPEAKER_00]: Well, we'll see if that they're they're very chill about it for some reason.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I know a lot of people view their vacations as oh it'll happen. [SPEAKER_00]: I don't really care where it is. [SPEAKER_00]: I just want to go somewhere sunny and that's enough for me. [SPEAKER_00]: Then if you have the option, [SPEAKER_00]: to look at going somewhere closer to home, perhaps in Europe, or if you live in Asia, staying in Asia, that's also a way to minimize the potential risks you're taking and it's horrible for people who are completely unaffected by what's going on to have to reconsider their plans as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I think just from minimizing things that could go wrong perspective, this is a time where it might be good to look closer to home if you have options to avoid any risk. [SPEAKER_01]: You're right. [SPEAKER_01]: And as you touched on just now, it is that uncertainty that is there. [SPEAKER_01]: Aaron has written in to ask us what are the, what are the three big golf carriers that are responsible for the sheer volume of global air traffic that we outlined in the last episode, that's sometimes up to half a million a day in terms of what they're handling as hubs, Delha, Delha, Delva, Abu Dhabi.

[SPEAKER_01]: Aaron is asking if we can outline what the three carriers are doing in terms of that policies during this current war. [SPEAKER_01]: So the quick rundown is that for all three carriers, Qatar, Etihad and Emirates, the refund eligibility option has been in place since the 28th of Feb when war broke out.

[SPEAKER_01]: They have different timelines though, so for example, Emirates is currently the longest you are able to refund if you were booked to travel any time until the 31st of March. [SPEAKER_01]: Qatar, tiny bit shorter, it's until the 22nd of March, currently I understand that's extending, and Etihad at the 21st of March a little bit behind Qatar.

[SPEAKER_01]: The rebook deadlines are different depending on when your flight was supposed to be, but crucial information here is that you can get a refund and they are actively processing refunds. [SPEAKER_01]: Some better than others, I'm hearing some negative sentiment regarding Etihad and the way that they are processing refunds.

[SPEAKER_01]: They had actually taken the feature off of the online capability to be [SPEAKER_01]: and I understand that calling was almost not an option because of their sheer volume and their suffering was being quoted as a call centre collapse, which many carriers are facing as well golf air in that same category.

[SPEAKER_01]: But you can get refunds from these carriers and I understand that many also will be looking as this seemingly drag zone. [SPEAKER_01]: at options that they introduced during COVID where by you were able to keep the money in the airline and obtain a credit voucher that was of a higher value than what you had originally paid with so many airlines pivot to that during COVID as a way to preserve cash but to also give the passenger piece of mind a rather longer period of time that if you have a booking let's say over the next three to six months keep your money in the airline but cash out with a with a [SPEAKER_01]: more of the original value of your ticket, meaning that you can spend that another time with that ally.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, of course, you might not want to, and understandably so. [SPEAKER_01]: It is very unclear as to when this is going to end how and so on. [SPEAKER_01]: And there are mixed messages coming from the guy in the White House. [SPEAKER_01]: We won't touch on that too much. [SPEAKER_01]: But the [SPEAKER_01]: The other little part that is linked with this question that I wanted to answer and Natasha has asked this by DM, but also many others have asked the same question.

[SPEAKER_01]: Is what happens if the flight is actually cancelled by the airline? [SPEAKER_01]: What obligation does the airline have? [SPEAKER_01]: So this is really, really crucial and I want to spell this out because [SPEAKER_01]: Now that we are so many days into the crisis, airlines are way more kind of on that feet in terms of the practiveness here than they were when the crisis first struck.

[SPEAKER_01]: And here's what I mean. [SPEAKER_01]: If, for example, one of these golf carriers has canceled your flights. [SPEAKER_01]: Let's say between Europe and the Moldeves and it's two flights. [SPEAKER_01]: And they've canceled. [SPEAKER_01]: When you open that up in that mobile app, for example, theoretically the option will be there immediately to refund and you can cash out and that's that's where your Relationship with the airline surrounded this booking finishes if you accept a refund.

[SPEAKER_01]: They no longer have any further obligation. [SPEAKER_01]: What I want to remind is that in almost all scenarios the airline still does have an obligation to get you to your destination, especially if there are alternative routes, even if it means [SPEAKER_01]: They're accurately sharing their experiences one by one in what they're calling rerouting success, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: So they were booked on, for example, Qatar to go to the more devs and they, through speaking with an agent on the live chat. [SPEAKER_01]: For example, have been able to see that because their flight was cancelled, they were rebuked the whole thing on Turkish Airlines. [SPEAKER_01]: Turkish Airlines is a competitor of Qatar.

[SPEAKER_01]: It has no working relationship, but Qatar is fulfilling its obligation there by doing so. [SPEAKER_01]: Emirates have been praised tremendously for the way that they were proactively re-booking and re-rooting on any other carriers, whoever was available in the market from the moment the crisis had struck.

[SPEAKER_01]: So there's limited evidence that Etihad is being as proactive but again they're facing a bit of an extended issue there. [SPEAKER_01]: It's something to be aware of in some scenarios if you can be flexible about it is worth waiting for the airline to cancel the flight if it's not going to operate because then you can start the conversation with them as to, okay, how are you planning or getting me there, can I propose to you, for example, this American Airlines flight or this flight that is via Ethiopian Airlines and Annada Sababa.

[SPEAKER_01]: and there is documented evidence everywhere that that is happening and I would recommend that listeners have that in their head if they do have bookings over the coming weeks. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean what you say is valid in terms of waiting to see if the flight is canceled and then getting better refund options.

[SPEAKER_00]: Of course, it's risky to assume your trip will go ahead. [SPEAKER_00]: Go ahead. [SPEAKER_00]: If you reach that point. [SPEAKER_00]: Do you think that, as I said, travelers should sort of get comfortable with the idea that their trip might not be happening unless they make backup planes now or schedule to do something else at least for the coming [SPEAKER_01]: And it's a difficult question, isn't it?

[SPEAKER_01]: Because it's how each individual person is going to perceive the uncertainty or the risk of closures. [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I know that just Dubai, Apple this morning, which Dubai is quite determined to keep declaring that they are back to normal. [SPEAKER_01]: And for what it's worth, none of these airlines right now are anywhere near to normal.

[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, many of them are operating on less than 10% of their regular. [SPEAKER_01]: flight operations to put this into perspective for you. [SPEAKER_01]: So let's look at the numbers. [SPEAKER_01]: So just before the crisis had struck, so the day before the 27th of February, Emirates had operated 531 flights on the 27th of February.

[SPEAKER_01]: 531. [SPEAKER_01]: On the 3rd of March, just a few days later, they were [SPEAKER_01]: less than 70 flights and they've gradually been building up 1-3-6 the next day, 214 the following day. [SPEAKER_01]: Let's bring us all the way up to speed. [SPEAKER_01]: Yes, the day, the 10th of March Emirates operated 309 flights.

[SPEAKER_01]: Interestingly, that was less than the day before, a few of last than the day before, 3-2-6 on the 9th of March. [SPEAKER_01]: So 309 when they were typically [SPEAKER_01]: definitely well on its way but still, you know, missing 200 or so flights that it would ordinarily be operating on A380s, remember, and A380s and the capacity of the A380 are talking 100s and 100s of seats in excess of 400 seats.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a very different picture for the other carriers. [SPEAKER_01]: Etihad just before the crisis were flying about 325 flights a day. [SPEAKER_01]: Yesterday, Etihad flew 56 flights only. [SPEAKER_01]: Qatar were flying close to 600 flights per day just before the crisis. [SPEAKER_01]: On the 27th February, they had flown 583 flights.

[SPEAKER_01]: yesterday it was just 66. [SPEAKER_01]: But but this is the nature of airspace restrictions in the region because there you know the if you look at the map of airspace and I encourage all listeners to do this it's not as equally distributed as you may think and Bahrain has disproportionately large airspace for such a small country and that's that's having implications for all [SPEAKER_01]: and there are still airspace restrictions with Qatar and Qatar's airspace by the QCA, the Civil Aviation Authority, by the same Civil Aviation Authority for the UAE, which is restricting movements, because of the risk to safety, that's affecting fly-to-by-ops, Air Arabia.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I guess the message here is that we're not out of the woods, not anywhere near and with that. [SPEAKER_01]: each individual passenger has to make up their mind as to how they want to approach their potential or current bookings over this next period. [SPEAKER_01]: And also forward with the rest of the year.

[SPEAKER_00]: The interesting thing is that I've seen Emirates tweet that if you have, let's say it to get from Bangkok to London, you can technically still take that, assuming they rebook you because they're operating enough flights that they will connect you from Bangkok to London. [SPEAKER_00]: But you might have a longer layover, and from what I see on social media, a lot of these flights are completely empty because obviously People are taking them up on cancellation offers and stuff like that, but theoretically with Emirates, it's not You might not get stranded given that they are offering passengers with [SPEAKER_00]: a confirmed tickets, not just to them from Dubai, but through Dubai, where both flights are not canceled, so they're clearly going to operate.

[SPEAKER_00]: They do allow you to take those still, which that is definitely a case where it's everyone's individual judgment, whether they want to do that, or not. [SPEAKER_01]: absolutely. [SPEAKER_01]: And airlines are having to get creative, right? [SPEAKER_01]: So if you pull up flight radar, I don't know many of our listeners live on flight radar like us, you'll see many airlines are operating outside of their normal schedule in order to pick up business and to repatriate and re-accommodate.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yesterday you will have seen that there were Qatar flights flying from Bangkok to Europe without stopping them at least. [SPEAKER_01]: So these were Qatar flights. [SPEAKER_01]: that are getting people out of Bangkok where there is a lot of passengers stranded and they're moving them to places like Paris where they were booked to originally go to and they had obtained the relevant permissions because you can't just do this in an almost narrow but because of the war they had been able to obtain the different permits to be able to fly those passengers [SPEAKER_01]: non-stop from Bangkok to Paris now in an ordinary world.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's definitely something that the Europeans wouldn't be accepting of in terms of they would cite competition fairness and whatnot. [SPEAKER_01]: You would have to go via the airlines hub. [SPEAKER_01]: These are hub and spoke carriers. [SPEAKER_01]: But it's war and there are passengers displaced and therefore airlines are getting creative in order to ensure that they can They can repatriate their customers as is necessary.

[SPEAKER_01]: There are also other examples of this. [SPEAKER_01]: There was a catman due to London flight Operated by Qatar always as well and again these are [SPEAKER_01]: really interesting routes that we would otherwise never see. [SPEAKER_00]: But we also kind of wish always existed, right? [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: But it reminds me of COVID, right? [SPEAKER_01]: When airlines were flying anywhere, and everywhere to pick up demand and governments were thanking them, left right in center. [SPEAKER_01]: So all bets are off in these scenarios as you have just imagine you there are so many examples of cruises there are cruise ships everywhere that otherwise were that passengers were ready to fly via these golf hubs back home and that's now not an option and so that they've been remained they remain on the cruise until the airline can accommodate or rather re-accommodate those [SPEAKER_01]: that all those hundreds of thousands of seats that would ordinarily be available are now no longer available, pushing up crazy demand to the few carriers who are who are financially loving this crisis, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: The the South East Asian carriers and so on and actually let's move into that. [SPEAKER_00]: I think it's interesting. [SPEAKER_00]: We've seen some statements from Tai Airways from Air New Zealand and Quantas have been very vocal about needing to raise prices and [SPEAKER_00]: do to increasing fuel costs, but what they're leaving out is that their ticket prices are probably more than making up for that.

[SPEAKER_00]: If someone needs to go to Australia, they have way more limited options now. [SPEAKER_00]: So, of course, these airlines that are quote-unquote needing to raise prices, fuel raising fuel costs is a valid explanation for that, but [SPEAKER_00]: more so I think it's just increasing demand.

[SPEAKER_00]: Another aspect to this is some other airlines that are definitely benefiting that always benefit in situations of turbulence and uncertainty is of course the charter operators. [SPEAKER_00]: The airlines that are called in by different governments, for example, to operate repatriation flights.

[SPEAKER_00]: So not only the likes of Qatar Airways are doing that, [SPEAKER_00]: the all over the Swedish media, my family was talking about how the Swedish government arranged a repatriation flight for specifically families in Dubai who needed to get home with kids. [SPEAKER_00]: So they sent an A320.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think it was in the other smart wings or check airlines' [SPEAKER_00]: to stalk on landing around five in the morning. [SPEAKER_00]: And there was a huge sort of scandal around this, because obviously, each government has a different approach to trying to repatriate their citizens. [SPEAKER_00]: Some like the US, say, get out of there.

[SPEAKER_00]: And of course, do absolutely nothing to help people. [SPEAKER_00]: Then there's the UK, Germany, France, which have been sending repatriation flights. [SPEAKER_00]: I know there have been quite a few flights to Muscat, taking Brits home. [SPEAKER_01]: where it's got how much of the hub of escape, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Exactly, especially from the UAE, of course. [SPEAKER_00]: Those airlines, or those countries, were asking their citizens who wanted to go back to their native countries to pay quite usual economy class fare for their tickets. [SPEAKER_00]: But then we have certain countries, ironically, some of the highest tax countries like Sweden and Finland, [SPEAKER_00]: asking their citizens to pay extraordinary amounts.

[SPEAKER_00]: If I'm not mistaken, I read the Finland, quoted the highest amounts, 2,300 euros per ticket for citizens that wanted to fly home on a government-repatriation flight operated by Finair. [SPEAKER_00]: which I thought was quite extreme. [SPEAKER_00]: Sweden, this I know for a fact, was charging, actually let me see the current conversion to make sure because the Swedish corona has been quite up and down.

[SPEAKER_00]: They were charging 1,100 euros for an A320 flight to get family's home, per person, and not only were they asking people, oh, you can pay by credit card, it will send you an invoice, and [SPEAKER_00]: They said, you need to digitally send us money from your digital wallets to this random number before you show up at the airport in order to get your ticket, otherwise you won't be allowed to fly.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just found this whole situation so bizarre because I really can't imagine that that flight is costing that much per passenger on a sold out A320 to operate. [SPEAKER_00]: And then to make the payment structure like that is also just quite strange in an emergency in my opinion. [SPEAKER_00]: And the representative of the Swedish government [SPEAKER_00]: who is responsible for helping sweeter citizens who are stuck abroad because keep in mind a lot of people obviously got stranded in the Gulf on vacation.

[SPEAKER_00]: He basically said, yeah, there are bigger problems in the world right now than people complaining about the price of this flight. [SPEAKER_00]: Of course, there are always bigger problems in the world, but you have one responsibility, this is your job to help people in a crisis, and now as soon as people criticize your actions in this situation, you just say, either a bigger problem is why you're complaining.

[SPEAKER_00]: So luckily, these families were able to get home. [SPEAKER_01]: That's not really in the spirit of repatriation to be honest. [SPEAKER_01]: There's governments are supposed to step in here, regardless to whether it's affecting a destination that people like to holiday at or not. [SPEAKER_01]: It shouldn't really be part of the conversation.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you have citizens that are caught up, [SPEAKER_01]: in a scenario where they are unable to leave by normal, in any normal circumstance because of, for example, extended airspace closure, then those governments have that obligation and it is funny, it's been a mixed picture, especially in mixed picture considering you would expect there, I mean, perhaps.

[SPEAKER_01]: Naively, you would have expected there to have been some kind of consistency across the EU in terms of what they were doing because there were some countries that were flying up their citizens entirely for free and there were some on the other extreme end of the scale which were pricing it as if it was a commercial business class booking.

[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, sometimes in some scenarios you can fly cheaper in an ordinary week on business life level of economy than what these governments were asking for [SPEAKER_01]: It's also interesting down to the speed that countries are able to work in. [SPEAKER_01]: I know that Spain were quite fast sending their government aircraft and bringing them back to a military air base.

[SPEAKER_01]: There are examples of Asian carriers who were doing all they could as well. [SPEAKER_01]: Sorry Asian governments were relying on Asian carriers to try and figure out a plan. [SPEAKER_01]: And ultimately, they're not sending those Asian carriers into the region. [SPEAKER_01]: Instead, there are British L.A.'s had been trying to rear-commodate anyone in the region with a BA booking, essentially telling them if you can reach Muscat, you know, will take you, and that sold out in minutes, literally.

[SPEAKER_01]: By the time BA told me that was happening, I then got a follow-up text message about 35 minutes later saying, okay, that's now, that's now four. [SPEAKER_01]: It's, and that's not necessarily because it's been a mass exodus of residents who live there. [SPEAKER_01]: I think people shouldn't confuse it, that's not what's happening.

[SPEAKER_01]: Most of these people that you're seeing and the kind of dramatic news reports that are relieved to have been out. [SPEAKER_01]: are either transit travelers who were caught up in the S-based closure while they were in transit or they were there on holiday. [SPEAKER_01]: And understandably, if they were there on holiday, you know, it's unlikely that they signed up for the idea of an imminent conflict in the region that would affect the rest of the world too, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I saw there were so many discussions in Sweden, so I just have to quote Sweden again, but I saw some people saying things like, well, if you're a vacationing three centimeters from an active war zone, what do you expect? [SPEAKER_00]: And I'm just like, people have such a warped view of the Middle East still, because obviously you and I, and I think most people listening to the podcast, [SPEAKER_00]: would think the opposite.

[SPEAKER_00]: We've always viewed or at least for, for, you know, a long time. [SPEAKER_00]: We viewed the Gulf as an extremely stable, reliable place to transfer. [SPEAKER_00]: When things are going wrong with airspace elsewhere, the Gulf has you covered, and it's a good place to do that. [SPEAKER_00]: So, [SPEAKER_00]: seeing people say, ha ha, you should have known all along.

[SPEAKER_00]: I find that extremely strange, not surprising, but of course, it's weird to blame anyone who is in this situation because everyone is here involuntarily. [SPEAKER_01]: And that sentiment is emerging from people that don't understand or don't know the Middle East. [SPEAKER_01]: So be honest.

[SPEAKER_01]: You can't loop in everyone into one bucket the same way you can't do that for other regions of the earth. [SPEAKER_01]: So I think we take that sentiment with a pinch of salt because it's emerging from people that are not so well-trailed or perhaps, you know, it was never on their scope.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's easy for them to just... [SPEAKER_01]: put it all in one and say, the Middle East or that's where there are wars. [SPEAKER_01]: Well, I think, you know, look a little bit closer to home and the type of things that are happening in the United States over the last few months and then we put something to perspective, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: So I don't think too much tension should be given to that. [SPEAKER_01]: The oil concerns and what this is doing [SPEAKER_01]: means that this is definitely going to be a defining event, as they call them, for allies going forward. [SPEAKER_01]: And I also see governments already hinting about how inflation is going to go up or has already started to tick up and this is going to affect the price of food and gas and so on as is inevitable, but also that's going to be weaponized, I think.

[SPEAKER_01]: we should we start a timer when are we having Michael O'Leary come forward and tell us how some affairs are going to be higher than ever before because of fill in the blank, right? [SPEAKER_01]: We always say that and that's that's inevitable but also if he does come forward and say that he's telling the truth this time around at least because [SPEAKER_01]: fuel is an airline's number one overhead in terms of operational costs and fuel is fluctuating all over the place right now because of the way that this conflict is unfolding and no clear pathway forward yet as to you know when there is going to be stability [SPEAKER_01]: First and foremost, for the people who deserve the stability, and that's the people everywhere across the region, including, of course, in Iran where some, you know, all the footage that's coming out there, including the military personnel, the United States, who are, who are sadly, you know, many of them have been killed already, and, and is that a war that the U.S. signed up for, this is a whole other conversation, I know, but the first and foremost stability for them, and then later stability for the markets, hopefully.

[SPEAKER_01]: Should we do something quick questions? [SPEAKER_01]: At least I'll join you for the first couple and then I might have to leave you to take Take the remaining as I have a broadcast to pick in shortly, but let's try and get to as many as we can. [SPEAKER_00]: Alright, let's jump into Q&A.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're actually going to go off a few comments here on YouTube from last week. [SPEAKER_00]: Sarah says, hi guys, I'm flying to Seoul on the 4th of April from Manchester with a day transit in Doha on Qatar Airways returning from Seoul to Manchester with a one day transit on the way back, traveling alone with my 10 year old daughter and need help trying to figure out how best to proceed.

[SPEAKER_00]: Have booked with a third party, but cannot access them due to a high number of calls they must be experiencing. [SPEAKER_00]: What should I do? [SPEAKER_00]: I have hardly any leniency and travel dates as I'm a teacher and this will be eased or break for me Thank you in advance for helping me out.

[SPEAKER_00]: Oh That's tough. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, we're so sorry to hear about this Sarah I think that For the future, although this is not helpful now This is one of the reasons we always recommend booking directly with the airline because third parties although they can be cheaper As soon as anything goes wrong and makes things more difficult [SPEAKER_00]: But if you can, I would, well, what do you see Alex?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, this is definitely the complexity with booking with third part of course. [SPEAKER_01]: But they do have that obligation. [SPEAKER_01]: It's incredibly difficult as you note that because you're a teacher, this is going to be a Easter break. [SPEAKER_01]: would try to get in contact with the company that you had booked with to see what your options are.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those dates currently are not covered by the flexible booking policy of today but this is changing hour by hour and so they may be soon you may be able to, for example, take a credit note or something like that but again it depends on who you had booked with. [SPEAKER_01]: The other scenarios that they may cancel this for an advance, but it's a bit too early for that now, and then you would have that scenario that we had mentioned regarding you being able to get reruited.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a difficult one, and there is that added complication because of the fact that you didn't book direct. [SPEAKER_01]: But keep us updated, send us another message if you are still struggling to get. [SPEAKER_01]: hold of anyone with the company that you'd booked with and we'll see what we can do to try to help there.

[SPEAKER_01]: There are a few other scenarios, some questions that we've had, that are of a similar sentiment which I think we've covered in the episode about what to do. [SPEAKER_01]: James here is asking if we think that this is going to lead to other airlines continuing to keep that price as high and justifying it as an extended increased demand.

[SPEAKER_01]: potentially. [SPEAKER_01]: That is the case. [SPEAKER_01]: Right now prices and fairs have shot up because all of that demand is now redeployed to airlines that simply don't have enough capacity to meet that demand, because you've removed all of the golf carriers and therefore you, you know, single-parallel [SPEAKER_01]: So that's why fairs are really high, but that could really continue, especially if we have big corporate decisions from the giant corps that say that actually they don't want that staff to be sent by the Middle East just in case there is no clear end in case there was always that chance of what happened and therefore they might introduce policies that root the [SPEAKER_01]: in real bookings, but if that sentiment picks up, then that's definitely going to keep fair prices high.

[SPEAKER_01]: Anyone with a booking that is unsure of what's doing, that bookings are for April, May, June, July and so on. [SPEAKER_01]: Well, let's say from May onwards, let's take it one out of time, as we'll always say, to down as well, because this is an incredibly fluid evolving situation, and there is very little known, even to the senior management of allies at the moment, [SPEAKER_01]: in what they're able to communicate to passengers.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we keep an open mind. [SPEAKER_01]: We take it day by day. [SPEAKER_01]: And also, you know, feel free to continue to check in with us if we can support in any way. [SPEAKER_01]: You can contact us on our Instagram at onair with Dan and Alex. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, very well said. [SPEAKER_00]: I have a question here from Diogo, who just shares something that happened to him.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think this is a positive conclusion. [SPEAKER_00]: He says, hi, Daniel Alex, love the podcast on the aviation topic of the week and how this war was about to ruin my holidays and brackets quite selfish of me. [SPEAKER_00]: I know, but I was looking forward to this for the past months.

[SPEAKER_00]: He says, I live in the Netherlands and I'm now in Malaysia, or I've yesterday on a drive flight with KLM. [SPEAKER_00]: My return flight, however, is in two weeks with Etihad. [SPEAKER_00]: After watching Dan's last video, I thought about canceling the entire trip and going somewhere else, maybe in the Americas, instead after much consideration and an entire evening on Google flights, I decided to book another term flight through China.

[SPEAKER_00]: So now I'm going back home with Air China instead of Etihad and landing in Frankfurt instead of Amsterdam, but at least I get to go on holidays and I'm loving KL so far. [SPEAKER_00]: Call the limper, not KLM. [SPEAKER_00]: This is, I hope you guys are well-staste safe. [SPEAKER_00]: So there you go, planning early, trying to find a solution before you even go on the trip like Diego did.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think is a great idea and now he can enjoy his trip knowing that in all likelihood his return will go well. [SPEAKER_00]: So I think that was good. [SPEAKER_00]: Here, we have a message from Claire who says hi to an Alex, I'm flying Emirates from Australia to London in early May for a bucket list trip.

[SPEAKER_00]: My instincts tell me to sit tight and wait and see, can I assume by then that Emirates will have found other routes as they don't want to be losing millions of dollars for months. [SPEAKER_00]: Thanks Claire. [SPEAKER_00]: This is really, really tough, it's impossible to predict what will happen, obviously.

[SPEAKER_00]: I doubt that Emirates will be setting up another sort of hub, like we're seeing, we've seen Gulf Air announced they're going to operate certain flights out of Dhamam, Saudi Arabia. [SPEAKER_00]: Obviously we had catcher airways as Alex said, operating some direct flights to Europe from Bangkok.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I do have a hard time envisioning this as a long-term solution. [SPEAKER_00]: I think Emirates might be operating in a similar way they do now. [SPEAKER_00]: They want to restore 100% of their destination soon. [SPEAKER_00]: So theoretically, as we also mentioned earlier, you will probably be able to fly Emirates regardless of whether the war is over or not.

[SPEAKER_00]: The question is if you want to, and if you feel safe doing that. [SPEAKER_00]: So, [SPEAKER_00]: If I were you, I would check if there's any refundable options, either maybe with points, or if you can find a fair where it's relatively cheap to cancel. [SPEAKER_00]: I know that sites like trip.com, sometimes like you add free cancellation for an extra $50 or $100.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you can book a backup ticket. [SPEAKER_00]: I think that might be worth it just for peace of mind so you can go ahead and plan the trip and know that whatever the airline you end up going there on, you have two options and you'll end up canceling one of those tickets. [SPEAKER_00]: I hope that helps Claire.

[SPEAKER_00]: Um, here's a message from Tasha and who says great podcast episode on the current situation, interesting to note about the safety and the air versus on the ground. [SPEAKER_00]: I myself was stuck in Dubai for two days longer than expected in brackets not the worst situation and route to Colombo.

[SPEAKER_00]: However, I got a flight to buy a rebooked flight and at that point my only worry was the fact I was on a 737 max. [SPEAKER_00]: Okay, in that case your worries are not too bad. [SPEAKER_00]: I, that is funny though, but yeah, we can trust the 737 and max these days. [SPEAKER_00]: I would say Another story here from Mati Mati.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, I'll say Matthias from Sweden who reached out say saying, Law and Time listener. [SPEAKER_00]: I've listened since the very first episode and it's always enjoyable. [SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for finally reaching out. [SPEAKER_00]: I reached out regarding the topic you mentioned about the flight disruptions in the Middle East.

[SPEAKER_00]: I was directly affected by this as I was booked to fly home to Sweden on Qatar on March 3rd. [SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, when I saw things deteriorate in the Middle East, I immediately started looking for other options going back from Kuala Lumpur. [SPEAKER_00]: On the first of March, early morning KL time, I had already booked another return ticket via Hong Kong and Helsinki on Cathay and Finair.

[SPEAKER_00]: As the time of writing, March 10th, I'm currently completing the loss like of this booking. [SPEAKER_00]: I guess, uh, booking somewhat early, I managed to snag my one way ticket for 10,000 crowns or about 1,100 US dollars. [SPEAKER_00]: QR was very fast to issue refund for my original booking once I requested it.

[SPEAKER_00]: No questions asked. [SPEAKER_00]: So again, fast action finding solutions is really the way to go here. [SPEAKER_00]: I'm so glad to hear the refund went well and that was efficient and I know that Alex will agree with that. [SPEAKER_00]: And finally, here, one last question from Ben for today, he says for airline staff traveling standby from Australia to Europe, where you only get on if there is an MTC, what routing usually gives the best odds as a solo traveler.

[SPEAKER_00]: Most people go via big Middle Eastern or Asian hubs with the current situation in the Middle East and political aerospace disruptions would actually be smarter to route somewhere less conventional like the US or even South America. [SPEAKER_00]: I'm thinking a few months ahead does that change the standby strategy in terms of load factors in hub connections.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, so obviously Alex and I are no experts at this and we can say specifically where you'll get good airline standby, but what we can say is that it doesn't sound like a bad idea to try to do it through the US [SPEAKER_00]: I, in my personal experience from what I've seen, it does not look like the U.S. carriers are always sold out on their ocean of flights, especially to New Zealand.

[SPEAKER_00]: I've seen a lot of available seats on United. [SPEAKER_00]: I think Australia could be the same case. [SPEAKER_00]: If you can get up to the US, obviously you have countless options to get to Europe, and they will not be nearly as affected as the rest of the world by what's going on in the Middle East.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that might be good to look at South America seems like a bit of a necessary detour considering that there are way fewer flights. [SPEAKER_00]: between Oceana and South America, sorry, and then between South America and Europe. [SPEAKER_00]: So my tip would be to check through North America if you can, and yeah, I'm sure the flights from Asia will unfortunately be pretty sold out.

[SPEAKER_00]: With that, guys, we have literally never received this many DMs or questions in a week. [SPEAKER_00]: We will try to do as many as possible next week as well because as much as we hope this will be resolved in seven days, I don't exactly know if it will. [SPEAKER_00]: But until then, as always, thank you for tuning in.

[SPEAKER_00]: We so appreciate you and we will see you next week on air. [SPEAKER_00]: Bye-bye. [SPEAKER_00]: Keep safe, everyone. [SPEAKER_00]: See you soon.

Middle East Crisis - Gulf Carrier Refunds, Reroutes & What To Do Now

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