The Biggest Aviation Disruption Since COVID

0:00 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm Dan and I'm Alex and welcome back to on-air we start with an apology for the fact that we are coming to you so late in the week we are recording this Sunday late morning the episode will go out shortly that Sunday late morning European time. [SPEAKER_00]: We're coming to you, I think you guys know, we're coming to you so late because of the massive monumental global developments over the last week.

0:26 [SPEAKER_00]: Now that meant we were unable to get to you sooner that was mostly my fault in in terms of my my lack of availability because everything has just [SPEAKER_00]: gone crazy. [SPEAKER_00]: For those of you that are potentially living under a rock, but we know that our listeners are very well informed.

0:41 [SPEAKER_00]: We are of course referring to the US Israel war on Iran that has caused global chaos, but specifically across the aviation sector because it has led to the longest suspension. [SPEAKER_00]: of this kind of operations at the biggest Gulf hubs Dubai, Dahlha and Abu Dhabi, there have been developments after development.

1:04 [SPEAKER_00]: It is continuing to evolve situation that has paralyzed the most significant portion of commercial air traffic. [SPEAKER_00]: and continues to do so with at the moment, no clear end insight with all of that at the way, Dan, how are you? [SPEAKER_01]: First of all, just a thank you to all our awesome on-air community who have been DMing us going, where is that episode?

1:31 [SPEAKER_01]: Where is the episode I need on air more than ever right now? [SPEAKER_01]: We hear you and we appreciate it. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so let's quickly, and overview of what's happened. [SPEAKER_00]: Of course, with airspace closures continuing across the region affecting the Middle East, we're talking about over the last week seeing the suspension of these massive golf hubs.

1:55 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, [SPEAKER_00]: You may have seen, of course, a lot of headlines or information about Dubai, Dubai receiving a lot of publicity here because, of course, they handle not only the most number of passengers internationally, but as a destination to buy is much more established than the other golf cities, but this has affected everyone, all the way starting from from kind of Jordan and then of course [SPEAKER_00]: And then down into the other Gulf states, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Oman, emerging as, I mean, Oman quiet throughout the year and now literally one of the only ways to get out of the Gulf for those who want to leave and specifically for those who were caught up in transit when airspace closed.

2:43 [SPEAKER_00]: So let's kind of, let's look at the numbers first before we look at a little bit of the story and what's happening. [SPEAKER_00]: combined daily traffic in an ordinary day from Dubai, Dahah, and Abu Dhabi, we're talking a big number. [SPEAKER_00]: It's about half a million passengers per day that they would handle in a 24 hour period.

3:06 [SPEAKER_00]: So if you can imagine half a million passengers and these harps were effectively shot last Saturday, Sunday, Monday and this went on and on, there has been some reopening to some extent soon will come to that shortly but to break it down. [SPEAKER_00]: Dubai is typically handling around 250,000 passengers a day in a 24 hour period.

3:30 [SPEAKER_00]: That's about 92 million years. [SPEAKER_00]: It's around 250 miles. [SPEAKER_00]: Sorry, I did catch myself at 250,000, not 250, but 250,000 passengers in a 24 hour period. [SPEAKER_00]: That's 92 million passengers. [SPEAKER_00]: Also, a year, it is [SPEAKER_00]: Doha is handling around 140,000 passengers a day that's about 50 million or so a year and is of course one of the most prominent transit hubs on earth.

4:04 [SPEAKER_00]: They have the highest share of transit traffic globally. [SPEAKER_00]: I would be a little bit less but still significant about 70,000 passengers that [SPEAKER_00]: That's up to about 30 million a year and they are on a rapid growth stream now with that new terminal. [SPEAKER_00]: So what we've seen in the global aviation system is the removal of half a million passengers per day.

4:29 [SPEAKER_00]: Now that's not because demand felt those half a million passengers are still there. [SPEAKER_00]: And they're waiting to be re-rooted, right? [SPEAKER_00]: And this is the situation that has crippled global aviation [SPEAKER_00]: the ability to accommodate what would have been half a million passengers on any given day.

4:49 [SPEAKER_00]: There is simply not enough capacity in all of global aviation to re-accommodate those passengers elsewhere, not least on the same routes and that has been arguably the biggest challenge so far right down. [SPEAKER_01]: 100%. [SPEAKER_01]: This is something that I noticed earlier this week.

5:08 [SPEAKER_01]: So if I check Malaysia to Europe tomorrow, Monday to 9th, there is one sea to London on Malaysia Airlines, but economy is not available. [SPEAKER_01]: The only thing available is business class, $5,500. [SPEAKER_01]: If I check tomorrow from Bangkok, for people, because keep in mind, the Gulf Airlines have not canceled their flights a week in advance.

5:34 [SPEAKER_01]: They're canceling one, two maximum three days in advance. [SPEAKER_01]: Really, if you're stuck, you're looking at, okay, I need to get home tomorrow or in two days. [SPEAKER_01]: So what are the options? [SPEAKER_01]: Looking tomorrow from Bangkok to Europe, there's two destinations with availability in economy.

5:53 [SPEAKER_01]: There's Oslo on Norse Atlantic $3,600 for one ticket or there's Vienna $4,500 for one economy ticket. [SPEAKER_01]: I guess actually that Austrian one is actually sold out in economy, so to the end of that was business is all that's available. [SPEAKER_01]: What about if we check Singapore, Singapore to Europe, we have no economy availability at all tomorrow, no business cost availability at all.

6:23 [SPEAKER_01]: So this is what, as you say, half a million travelers a day, [SPEAKER_01]: are facing. [SPEAKER_01]: So of course, you look at viral videos all over social media of, for example, Emirates tickets or offices in Call of Lumber in Bangkok. [SPEAKER_01]: The lines are hundreds of people long trying to get help in person because of course, if you try to call, these call centers are just completely overloaded.

6:50 [SPEAKER_01]: This is nothing they could have prepared for or anticipated [SPEAKER_01]: So, it's a really tricky situation for travelers all across the world, including not just in the Middle East. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and there is rhetoric I've had numerous people getting in touch. [SPEAKER_00]: I'm actually going to address some of the questions.

7:15 [SPEAKER_00]: So, so initially I've received questions about wire airlines putting up their prices, knowing what's going on in the Middle East and there is now this [SPEAKER_00]: US Israel war that's emerged very suddenly and it's affecting the entire Gulf and all these hubs where passengers would typically be transiting through perhaps from London to Bangkok, perhaps from Paris down to Australia and so on.

7:38 [SPEAKER_00]: It is the crossroads of the world and it is perhaps the most significant aviation portion of traffic, but definitely from a transit perspective, [SPEAKER_00]: these three hubs combined. [SPEAKER_00]: And this is why this is incredibly significant. [SPEAKER_00]: Elements are not putting up their price because they are taking advantage of the situation.

7:58 [SPEAKER_00]: They are putting up their price because, well, well, in fact, they're not. [SPEAKER_00]: If the fact that there are no seats available, right? [SPEAKER_00]: And the last seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, the seat, [SPEAKER_00]: fair that on many flights would never be for sale because the demand wouldn't push the airline to that extent.

8:23 [SPEAKER_00]: So it's being described to me everywhere that you can't get for example from Southeast Asia to Europe for a level of money. [SPEAKER_00]: It's incredibly difficult. [SPEAKER_00]: I know somebody and it totally hurt written to me to say that they had paid 10,000 British pounds. [SPEAKER_00]: to get from Bangkok to London in economy.

8:39 [SPEAKER_00]: That's for one person. [SPEAKER_00]: I think that's a bit of a record in terms of pricey. [SPEAKER_00]: It's incredibly difficult and then of course you touch on a very valid point and I'd love to explain this a bit further. [SPEAKER_00]: I've had people getting in touch asking why these airlines, for example, the Gulf carriers, [SPEAKER_00]: are selling tickets for four days time, and they've said why are they knowingly selling tickets that they're going to, why are they selling tickets that they're knowingly going to cancel?

9:07 [SPEAKER_00]: Now that's not the case, in this scenario right now, with the way that this situation remains so fluid and continues to evolve, these airlines from a flood operations perspective are only able to cancel in something like 48 hour blocks, because they are unsure if, for example, [SPEAKER_00]: And we all know who follow geopolitics that these things can end just as quickly as they start.

9:34 [SPEAKER_00]: And with that, they are not unilaterally taking the decision to cancel so far in advance, which causes confusion and passengers feel unsure when they open their booking, for example, for three days time and they say, [SPEAKER_00]: Why is the airline showing me my flight is on time? [SPEAKER_00]: When currently that airline's hub is closed and the S-base above it is closed.

9:54 [SPEAKER_00]: For example, by rain, which continues to have an S-base closure. [SPEAKER_00]: Qatar has a majority of its S-base closed. [SPEAKER_00]: UAE has switched to a pattern of on, off, on, off, and this is what it's doing. [SPEAKER_00]: And there is rhetoric in the geopolitical and also the aviation community that the reason why the UAE potentially could be receiving the type of attacks that they have, which seems to be targeting, for example, we've seen lots of videos of, of, of, of, of.

10:23 [SPEAKER_00]: It's targeting to buy airport and so on is maybe because of the rhetoric that they're putting out about trying to get back to normal We're not sure, but the UAE understandably so wants to move forward to be able to clear the backlog of those that were stranded and they They they're doing this with those repatriation flights at scale at the same time just yesterday They had had to declare that all flights were suspended again because of because of missile related activity [SPEAKER_00]: And this has been kind of a different picture, which brings me on to my next point about what airlines are doing because if we take a look at, for example, the European Airlines, did you see what the Finair statement had said regarding Dubai, Dan?

11:08 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, I know they've cut their flights for the remainder of the winter season, which they have the flights in March, currently anyway. [SPEAKER_01]: I didn't bring up the statement, though. [SPEAKER_01]: What did they say? [SPEAKER_00]: So this was following. [SPEAKER_00]: This was issued on Wednesday, and this was after Emirates had started to to fly in a limited way, and then other airlines were exploring returning to Dubai.

11:29 [SPEAKER_00]: despite the situation not being in the clear, and will leave that to Emirates as to how they determine if it's safe to continue. [SPEAKER_00]: But I thought this was interesting from Fineh, who put out a statement saying Fineh investigates the possibilities to get its customers home from Dubai, but the airspace and the regions currently unsafe operations.

11:50 [SPEAKER_00]: So they had a quote and they said [SPEAKER_00]: quote, we do not compromise on flight safety. [SPEAKER_00]: For example, yesterday, some of the Middle Eastern Airlines to Dubai were turned away, while airborne due to a missile attack. [SPEAKER_00]: We understand that the situation is really distressing for our customers and essentially going on to say but we will not be flying.

12:16 [SPEAKER_00]: Now that's, I found very particularly interesting because that doesn't mean that they've been on the receiving end. [SPEAKER_00]: of passengers saying well how are they doing it and you're not right and this is where it becomes there's a bit of an imbalance and fina declaring that it's not safe for them.

12:30 [SPEAKER_00]: Bruteshaw is taking a similar approach. [SPEAKER_00]: They said that destinations including Dubai, Dahlha and others were simply not safe enough to fly to at the moment because of the risks that they had because of their own risk assessments and various airspace closures in the region. [SPEAKER_00]: If we look at the same country, British Show is a UK, Virgin Atlantic, the other UK airline announced this big bold rear returning to Dubai and they put this out everywhere, they had said that this is Virgin Atlantic ready to return with scheduled operations to Dubai, it's something they pushed heavily and it was a breakaway from the rhetoric that their competitor British Show [SPEAKER_00]: If we look Nehel at what happened at that big return to Dubai from Virgin Atlantic, passengers were on board the flight from London to Dubai, which ended up reaching as far as Dubai, but not landing, turning around, coming all the way back, diverting to Budapest for a fuel stop, and finally returning to the UK after a 16 hour flight to nowhere.

13:47 [SPEAKER_00]: Arriving back where they started 16 hours later, and now Virgin admitting that they're going to continue to suspend operations, to Dubai. [SPEAKER_00]: Join the British Airways. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, well, actually before I go on, what did you think of that? [SPEAKER_01]: it's unbelievable even the virgin decided to return.

14:07 [SPEAKER_01]: I was shocked when I saw that out of all airlines from the whole world deciding to do it, virgin at Lane Tick was the one along with Emirates and Fly Dubai and Etihad that were deciding to fly to the Middle East. [SPEAKER_01]: I thought that was an interesting choice. [SPEAKER_01]: I, it seems like right now they're undecided on how to proceed, but in general, I just, I know you have another point, but I saw an interesting interview.

14:37 [SPEAKER_01]: And I've asked if you pilot friends as well, working at the Middle Eastern carriers about, is it actually dangerous to be flying there right now? [SPEAKER_01]: Once you're in the air, it's actually not dangerous because the missiles that Iran sends and the drones are visible on radar, so they know long enough in advance when those things are on their way.

15:05 [SPEAKER_01]: to for the aircraft to once they're in the air be able to clear UAE airspace and be out of there. [SPEAKER_01]: Or if they're landing to be able to go around and exit the airspace again. [SPEAKER_01]: So the risk of an aircraft being, uh, I don't even want to say it, but we hit by a missile basically.

15:23 [SPEAKER_01]: is extremely small. [SPEAKER_01]: The bigger risk, based on what I've seen, seems to be before you're in the air, when you're on the ground. [SPEAKER_01]: So, whether that's during boarding because that's a bit of a fragile time. [SPEAKER_01]: We saw yesterday a video of, what seemed to be a big explosion, very close to an aircraft at a gate.

15:43 [SPEAKER_01]: If you're in the terminal, for example, that could also be more risky, that this is what I've heard and read. [SPEAKER_01]: Is the does that match your understanding? [SPEAKER_00]: It does, and also I just want to again further, perhaps that aviation is the safest form of transport because it is so highly regulated.

16:01 [SPEAKER_00]: So typically, there are no risks taken in this scenario, right? [SPEAKER_00]: And the industry has had to find out the hard way that mistakes can happen. [SPEAKER_00]: As listeners will remember, the tragedy of the Ukraine International Airlines flight that was shot down shortly after departing to Iran.

16:17 [SPEAKER_00]: That was following a night of, [SPEAKER_00]: tensions and fire between the U.S. that was Trump's first admin, first time around, and Iran, and it was all playing out kind of in Iraq. [SPEAKER_00]: And Iran said that that was shot down by accident. [SPEAKER_00]: It's something that the IKO International Supervisional Organization of Montreal has been handling for a long time.

16:39 [SPEAKER_00]: It affected nationalities all over the world and was deeply, deeply tragic. [SPEAKER_00]: incident in Chloe Aviation MH17 of course, Malaysia Airlines, people will remember that and what happened there with the surface to our missile that was used for reasons that remain unclear as to not not that there is ever a reason but of course it's Malaysia that was the second tragedy in the space of months after the loss of MH370.

17:09 [SPEAKER_00]: So in Aviation [SPEAKER_00]: We trust that these airlines are not taking risks and and it is the safest form of transport because it is so highly regulated. [SPEAKER_00]: Understandably so there has been questions. [SPEAKER_00]: There are questions that's to, for example, how is Dubai doing it?

17:24 [SPEAKER_00]: That's definitely a sentiment and look no further than then the [SPEAKER_00]: chief operating officer, a fin air having to explain that he kind of disagrees with that in a statement and another airlines declaring the area as unsafe until they can gain further reassurances or until it calms down.

17:43 [SPEAKER_00]: If we zoom out of the map and anyone that has flight radar now can see this, [SPEAKER_00]: The ability to pass between east and west across this area is almost being cut off for a variety of different reasons, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Because north, many airlines are not over flying Russia since the war on Ukraine.

18:03 [SPEAKER_00]: And then now we have basically all of them at least as with no option for passenger airlines like those starting their journey in Singapore or in Australia to pass through to Europe and so on. [SPEAKER_00]: There is a now essentially a small corridor remaining, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia specifically have emerged as the corridor to be able to bridge from Europe across into Asia and then over Turkmenistan and then the stands, Tajikstan and so on.

18:43 [SPEAKER_00]: So this small corridor right now, as I'm talking to, I can see, is being used by Finnair, is its flight from Bangkok to Helsinki, Turkish Airlines to Istanbul, Quantus currently flying from Singapore to Heathrow, D.A. [SPEAKER_00]: Chao on a cargo flight to Shanghai, lot to Polish Airlines to Warsaw, British Airways from India to Heathrow, [SPEAKER_00]: This corridor is getting smaller and smaller, north of that corridor, north so much, south of that corridor, nothing currently, and so it's, this is, this is, it's a combination of all impacts.

19:26 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's a combination of things that we have been speaking about literally since the first episodes of this podcast. [SPEAKER_01]: I remember discussing aerospace closures and how airlines were getting very restricted in the first or second episode. [SPEAKER_01]: So these things keep coming and going and it is crazy to think what a narrow corridor remains for Europe to Asia flights at the moment, especially to Northeast Asia.

19:55 [SPEAKER_01]: So, this is, of course, a hugely developing situation on so many fronts, which we will keep tracking. [SPEAKER_01]: We're going to have a very in-depth analysis on Wednesday for you guys as well in our regularly programmed episode. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so we'll come on Wednesday. [SPEAKER_00]: We'll come back to you with a no more app in terms of duration.

20:22 [SPEAKER_00]: This is just a quick check in with you guys. [SPEAKER_00]: And ahead of Wednesday, we would like your scenarios. [SPEAKER_00]: We'd definitely like your questions to be able to support you. [SPEAKER_00]: And we're welcoming anything. [SPEAKER_00]: Perhaps you have booked to transit by the Middle East in a few months and you're unsure what to do.

20:39 [SPEAKER_00]: perhaps you have a success story of being able to obtain a quick refund or a rerouteing via one of these airlines and you'd like to share how to help other passengers. [SPEAKER_00]: Perhaps your stock, perhaps your stranded outstation, one of these airlines abroad or at their hubs and you want to get in touch, perhaps you were affected and you were able to leave via Muscat or React, which is a remained operational.

21:02 [SPEAKER_00]: Getting in touch, we want to hear from you, also we want to hear your thoughts on this and any questions that you have even if you're not traveling. [SPEAKER_00]: at any time soon so that we can help set the scene and navigate the way forward. [SPEAKER_01]: Once again, we really appreciate all your guys support and tuning in and we hope you're staying safe out there and until we see you next week on air, bye-bye.

21:26 [SPEAKER_01]: See you soon.