Why Nobody's Flying to the World Cup (And What That Means for Fares This Summer)

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm Dan and I'm Alex and welcome back to on air. [SPEAKER_00]: How are you Alex? [SPEAKER_00]: You're always laughing I see as we go to record. [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I take it as a compliment because it means I've just been on a streak of I don't know so I'm kind of yep. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, but usually it's just roasting you before we press record [SPEAKER_00]: Like the thing is, guys, that I'm so sad you don't get to be a part of, as listeners, is that here we go.

[SPEAKER_00]: You start almost every week, but I do, I swear I was like, skip, with the music, little, little, little, you're not saying the same property. [SPEAKER_01]: No one is understanding you right now. [SPEAKER_01]: But it is true that while we wait for you to connect and plug the mic and so on, [SPEAKER_01]: kind of off air segment that comes before on air is probably something that we need to monetize.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's probably some kind of like bonus. [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe we can explore it as I'm kind of bonus episode or something, but let's see. [SPEAKER_00]: It is a joke every time, if you like desperate housewives shout out, obviously it's been a while since we've watched it, but there is something that Alice said.

[SPEAKER_01]: Dan crying. [SPEAKER_01]: Still nobody has any idea what you are talking about because this is very, very specific thing that you crack up about. [SPEAKER_01]: But allow us to move on and let me ask you, what are you up to this week? [SPEAKER_00]: Okay. [SPEAKER_00]: Good question. [SPEAKER_00]: I am going to a destination wedding.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm actually emceeing a destination wedding. [SPEAKER_00]: So it's a big responsibility. [SPEAKER_00]: How do you feel about destination weddings? [SPEAKER_01]: So, well, so... [SPEAKER_01]: to clarify, you mean, a wedding just not in the home town of the bride and groom, right? [SPEAKER_00]: That's exactly what it tends to be where I am, of course.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think, I mean, in aviation and in travel, this is a huge driver of the aviation sector and kind of travel economy, personally. [SPEAKER_01]: I love attending weddings that are of friends and family that are abroad in inverted commas aka like not specifically where that from and also there is it's nice that [SPEAKER_01]: it kind of forces together in a nice way a group that otherwise wouldn't be in that climate or by that beach or you know so so you can it is definitely there are definitely pros to it there are also definitely cons as well to it you know depending on for example if you're not very close to the couple or it's not a family member or so on then flying out and then

[SPEAKER_01]: but usually it usually turns out fine. [SPEAKER_01]: Otherwise there are those that are kind of less routine in that you know when the wedding is and it's at this place at this you know hotel for example on this date and that's the only thing you show up for while you are at that destination.

[SPEAKER_01]: So then that becomes your own trip. [SPEAKER_01]: and then while you're there you have it. [SPEAKER_01]: So yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: What I think a lot of listeners will really to obviously this is a different scenario this wedding since we're very close to these people and we'll be emceeing it but the number of deaths well I don't even want to say destination wedding just the number of [SPEAKER_00]: international global weddings that you get invited to when you are that friend who seems to always be everywhere and fly everywhere.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's like the expectations that you have as that friend to show up anywhere, even if it's like someone you don't know that well. [SPEAKER_00]: Is it more like a [SPEAKER_01]: Dan and Oscar can rock up on Tuesday to bore a borrower for a way to get someone they met in, you know, in the lounge one time.

[SPEAKER_00]: Look, well, I mean, kind of not quite that, but I do think that, you know, as both of us are that friend to everyone we know who seems to be able to go everywhere all the time and takes the plane like it's their car, which, I mean, that is true in a way, but it is true in extent. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, when you are on the move, for example, as much as we are, [SPEAKER_01]: It's very very difficult to then receive that save the day, especially for somewhere that's you wouldn't typically be.

[SPEAKER_01]: So if it's not in your home market. [SPEAKER_01]: So for example, it was a very different experience if Dan you get invited to a wedding. [SPEAKER_01]: Let's say in Sweden that's next summer versus a wedding that they say we invite you to this in Cape Town in South Africa, for example. [SPEAKER_01]: because in your head you know as well as I do that you don't actually know where you're going to be next year that would eventually become clearer as the months broke progress, work, travel commitments and so on.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so it does seem like a quite a heavy commitment when you know that on this specific weekend on that specific day you have to be there. [SPEAKER_01]: Now I would argue that for others that's perfectly normal to know that yeah that's good [SPEAKER_01]: but with scheduling and also, as you say, we're kind of running around the world in aviation and air travel while it seems that that should then be easier.

[SPEAKER_01]: I would hug you that it's probably harder to ensure that you fulfill that commitment. [SPEAKER_00]: Precisely because it could be like, oh, please come to our wedding in San Francisco and you're like, yes, that would be fine if I knew I would be in the US. [SPEAKER_00]: But what if for other reasons, I happen to be in Africa then suddenly I can't just say yes to this and it's a very, very unrelatable struggle.

[SPEAKER_00]: an honor every time someone invites you to their wedding. [SPEAKER_00]: It's beautiful, but it just makes me sad and frustrated because people think that where those flexible people that can go anywhere, but I feel like in a way when you're traveling as much as we do, it makes you less flexible and less likely to be able to attend.

[SPEAKER_01]: Why would you not want? [SPEAKER_01]: You know, where would you dread opening the envelope? [SPEAKER_01]: Is it it's a couple that you love maybe your family friends or whatever You're close with them, but then you see the destination and you think oh God, where is enough to kind of put your going?

[SPEAKER_00]: There isn't a destination that I don't want to go to or just [SPEAKER_01]: Well, there's a difference, because there are destinations that we don't want to go to. [SPEAKER_01]: We all have those, that destinations that are at the bottom of our list, we don't want to. [SPEAKER_01]: And then there are those that, you know, you don't want to be there, especially not for a wedding.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, let's be realistic. [SPEAKER_01]: No one has ever opened up an invitation. [SPEAKER_01]: And it says, you know, the happy couple will be delighted if, you know, you join them in the trouble. [SPEAKER_01]: And I've got to climb it off, you know, a car ball or, I mean, not because, as far as I'm saying, Gothamburg.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right. [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know the time. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_01]: See, that's your hometown thing. [SPEAKER_01]: No one's actually flying there to get married there. [SPEAKER_01]: Let's be real. [SPEAKER_01]: No. [SPEAKER_01]: Okay. [SPEAKER_01]: But then I think, specifically, the idea to my question is, [SPEAKER_01]: It's also a very big commitment like I was slightly would slightly dread it if it was, you know, we're getting married in Fiji.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're getting married in the whole course. [SPEAKER_01]: Of course. [SPEAKER_01]: Of course. [SPEAKER_01]: You know, even though the more these are dearly beautiful stunning, then I'd be like, dear God, that's that's the heavy commitment as well. [SPEAKER_00]: Right. [SPEAKER_00]: That will be $10,000 to a [SPEAKER_01]: do you really want to type someone else's wedding?

[SPEAKER_01]: I would argue no. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no, exactly. [SPEAKER_00]: I feel like it's, we're both European, right? [SPEAKER_00]: So we are. [SPEAKER_00]: Even though we don't necessarily live or spend much time in Europe, we still, I still feel that getting invited to a wedding somewhere in Europe.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, okay, that's fine. [SPEAKER_00]: But even if I spend most of my time in Asia, I get into a wedding in Asia. [SPEAKER_00]: I'd be like, hmm, that's a bit more inconvenient, just because Europe is like, okay, that's acceptable destination wedding for us because that's where [SPEAKER_00]: That's what we're Europe is where our roots are from.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you're just completely ignoring the fact that you're, you know, half American, if not more But I know, but that you join me on the Europe bus. [SPEAKER_00]: I was gonna say that one place where I what I want to get invited to a wedding is the US because I'm just like [SPEAKER_00]: it just feels so far.

[SPEAKER_00]: I know, but like if I'm there, I'm visiting my family, there's no other reason. [SPEAKER_00]: So if you're so far to get there and then hotels are so expensive, unless you want to stay in some place, that was renovated 40 years ago, and has rats, and it's just like, this is, this is just so such a thing.

[SPEAKER_01]: You said in the US, well, isn't he just on the, on the eve of that world cup? [SPEAKER_01]: Yes, you guys, those $3,000 tickets will be, [SPEAKER_01]: those hotels are empty, we touched on it, previous episodes, but all of the dead shows that hotels are well below what they should actually be.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I don't know anyone who's going for that. [SPEAKER_01]: And you know, I'm in quite a crowd that especially, you know, a lot of friends of mine, international friends, [SPEAKER_01]: were really keen and traveled to Qatar for the World Cup. [SPEAKER_01]: And I'm not talking about friends that have links to the Middle East, work, links, family, links, friends.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm talking about friends that had never been to the Middle East until they had visited for the World Cup. [SPEAKER_01]: I have not heard, you know, I'm checking in with neighbors, dotted around different places that I know are very, very football, football mad. [SPEAKER_01]: Nope, they're not going.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm talking about cousins that are based in London, they can just hop over the pond as they say. [SPEAKER_01]: I know they're not going, and it is funny because that sentiment is backed up by the data that shows that no one's going. [SPEAKER_00]: Precisely, that's the hotel's, but even, I mean, for example, I noted with a lot of interests that just in May, so this month, level, the low cost long-haul airline of IAG based mainly in Barcelona, [SPEAKER_00]: Decided last minute to cut its frequencies to the U.S. this summer, Barcelona to Boston down from 7 to 3 weekly, Barcelona to LA, down from 6 to 4 weekly, Barcelona to New York, down from 7 to 6 weekly, so this is peak season not only for U.S. tourists to come to Europe.

[SPEAKER_00]: But also for Europeans to be going to the World Cup and last minute, this airline is deciding to cut flights. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, look at what's going on also geopolitically as well. [SPEAKER_01]: We're just out of another weekend where it was very unclear if Trump was going to resume heavy fighting as part of this ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

[SPEAKER_01]: also rumours about him going into Cuba and doing the same over the last 48 hours, just messy. [SPEAKER_01]: And I still think that it is likely, I still think there has been this pattern with him that is a very term time, and I don't know if I've mentioned this before, sorry for having on repeating it, but I feel that Trump isn't going to and hasn't done anything, he's not going to do it while the world cup is on.

[SPEAKER_01]: and then it's going to be August and typically he's just playing golf and that's it. [SPEAKER_01]: So then nothing happens and then September there's this kind of back-to-school vibe for the U.S. government and other governments where [SPEAKER_01]: There are also going to be elections in Israel, and so then perhaps it's going to ramp up then geopolitically and it's mad because now global travelers will tell you that previously they use the check weather forecast and now you're checking these specific minute-by-minute [SPEAKER_01]: developments to figure out if geopolitically it is okay to transit in X destination on the way to Asia or to fly here and know that you might not be able to get back and so because of the way that everything that is messy with geopolitics right now determines S-based access and whether routes are going ahead and whether transit is feasible then, whether you're travelling

[SPEAKER_01]: plus a world cup in a matter of days, not even a week's but days. [SPEAKER_01]: That's, you know, no one deaf people are not feeling that certainty to say, yeah, sure, let's book those roots that level the low cost arm of I.e. [SPEAKER_01]: a cutting back. [SPEAKER_01]: And what's, what I've just noticed now is, [SPEAKER_01]: You mentioned those routes.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're literally games. [SPEAKER_01]: They're literally, you know, football games. [SPEAKER_01]: There's like, there's a host city as well. [SPEAKER_01]: So it's not like it's not like it's just somewhere off the beaten track that they're redeploying to pass Teter to other areas. [SPEAKER_01]: They're not redeploying.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're just cutting. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's, it's really, really crazy, but with that, let's start our Q&A because we have yeah, there's so many questions from you guys and we'll be through one and go through them. [SPEAKER_01]: So Sebastian writes from Madrid and he's asking, um, United CEO is saying that Faire's could rise up to 20% this summer.

[SPEAKER_01]: Is this actually going to happen or is he managing expectations? [SPEAKER_00]: Well, fairs have already risen in the US by over 20% from what I've seen since February. [SPEAKER_00]: So prices are up. [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not sure if he's saying it's an additional 15 to 20% which would be pretty terrible, but the the interesting thing I always think is that.

[SPEAKER_00]: were very unaware when the price seems to go down of flights, but very aware when they go up. [SPEAKER_00]: And if you look at those historical inflation adjusted graphs of flight prices, flight prices are actually still lower than they have been at some points in the 2010s, and even if they go up a bit more inflation adjusted, [SPEAKER_00]: they'll still be lower.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I try to keep that in mind when I start freaking out of our prices going up. [SPEAKER_00]: What do you do? [SPEAKER_00]: What do you think? [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah it's true and it's not going to be everywhere but but fairs are creeping up on the whole that is true and fairs are up versus last year that is also true.

[SPEAKER_01]: I do think it should all dip again once or over the kind of that [SPEAKER_01]: And there is new data out that confirms that people are staying closer to home this summer compared with previous years. [SPEAKER_01]: And that is again because of the uncertainty. [SPEAKER_01]: It's just the way that geopolitics and the economy has made people feel.

[SPEAKER_01]: So even if you can't touch it, even if the individual is just simply not affected at all by what's going on really far away in the Middle East. [SPEAKER_01]: Or perhaps you know that they're just not [SPEAKER_01]: or whatever, even so there is this feeling globally that has translated into behavior of passengers and the data for this summer by Ayata already confirms that more people are staying closer [SPEAKER_01]: to where they are currently living, people are saying closer to where they're currently living, compared with previous years.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's staycation plus. [SPEAKER_01]: So it's either staying in that market where they are living, or just staying in the same region, but not traveling out of the region. [SPEAKER_01]: And they link that to the fact that the [SPEAKER_01]: a few prices high, there is this feeling of things being expensive, maybe they're thinking, you know, it's too uncertain to fly a long haul with everything that's going on in the world rather than just in a specific region.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe they feel it's people who are bigger than it actually is, you know, not just something that's tied to one region only. [SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, it's, and also people feel that, and know that things are more expensive. [SPEAKER_01]: A lot of people have been in touch to demonstrate [SPEAKER_01]: those that go on the same trip, they like to repeat the trip year after year, are paying much more this year compared with last year and the year before in most scenarios.

[SPEAKER_01]: I say that there are examples, somebody put a booking in front of me the other day and said look it's 1,200 euros less compared with last year for a copy-paced holiday, same dates, same flights, same everything, same hotel, the lot is just so much less because what happens is we are now in [SPEAKER_01]: approaching June and this is where airlines and travel companies worry that they haven't secured the bookings that they had expected and so actually now we see an artificial dip which is not actively reflecting market movements but instead are airlines and hotels.

[SPEAKER_01]: cutting and trimming the prices of everything they're selling in order to just fill the last minute booking category with as much as they can to boost revenue hopes. [SPEAKER_01]: So it is likely that you probably in some scenarios get a better deal now for something that's in four to six weeks then if you had booked for example in February or March which is when a lot of people book in [SPEAKER_00]: Yep.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, exactly. [SPEAKER_00]: What I find so interesting, you know, we have a hotel booking service, where we help clients book luxury hotels. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: And a lot, I mean, there's really two camps. [SPEAKER_00]: There's people who book a year in advance or people who book last minute, but [SPEAKER_00]: when booking year in advance, I always always find that the price is higher than if booking closer to the date.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you're completely right that people, a lot of people have overpaid for something that the people in the room next to them or in the seat next to them are going to have ended up paying less for due to the world's situation. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's true. [SPEAKER_01]: We've got a question from Kiara and it's about Lufthansa canceling the 20K flights.

[SPEAKER_01]: She says that with them canceling those 20K flights should people be avoiding booking with Lufthansa group this summer. [SPEAKER_01]: Are those constellations going to continue? [SPEAKER_01]: I think actually it's important for us to clarify that at 20,000 figure across the Lufthansa group that's something that's been initiated already.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's not that they're not rolling constellations [SPEAKER_01]: week after week, there will be a fresh batch and you'll be affected. [SPEAKER_01]: Instead that's something that what they did, they said right, they have to bite the bullet because it's saving 40,000 metric tons of fuel, which is very, very important as they can't absorb the fuel cost currently.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so what they've been able to do there is [SPEAKER_01]: protect themselves from that extremely high fuel price but also provide passengers with some such as the because the the cancellations already done. [SPEAKER_01]: So you don't have to avoid is the key answer to your message there.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's completely right. [SPEAKER_00]: Priya asks, is it actually worth buying travel insurance or is it just money for nothing? [SPEAKER_00]: I find this so interesting, I think we've spoken about this, how there's really two camps. [SPEAKER_00]: There's people who view travel insurance as a complete necessity.

[SPEAKER_00]: You can't go anywhere without it, and then people are like, what, you buy travel insurance? [SPEAKER_00]: Who uses that? [SPEAKER_00]: Which camp are you? [SPEAKER_01]: I think it's a, sorry, I was laughing because I was thinking of the, in the movie, where the millers have you seen? [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, love that movie.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, and then he says kind of looks at them and he's like, you guys are getting paid? [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's what that sounded like. [SPEAKER_01]: Um, the, I travel insurance is important. [SPEAKER_01]: It's important because you never know, right? [SPEAKER_01]: And so I think it's just something that you should have.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think most people, if you looked into, [SPEAKER_01]: what your credit card includes, you're probably covered to an extent there. [SPEAKER_01]: And so I would, you know, I mean, your other credit cards, guys, actually, is that valid? [SPEAKER_00]: Well, some credit cards, but more, I mean, more often, I would say, especially if you live in Europe, check your home insurance, because a lot of people get some sort of 30 days, 60 days travel insurance included with their home [SPEAKER_00]: Also, travel insurance in my experience is shockingly cheap.

[SPEAKER_00]: Every time, I pay maybe $250 a year for my travel insurance, that I always recoup that cost through some stuff. [SPEAKER_01]: Do you select the options for, okay, wait, I'm going to ask you about that about how you get it back. [SPEAKER_01]: Just quickly, do you select the option that covers [SPEAKER_01]: your device says lost theft and so on, or no.

[SPEAKER_00]: No, I'm not so concerned about theft personally. [SPEAKER_00]: It's more medical and just like disruption. [SPEAKER_00]: So a canceled plans do the sickness or a canceled flight that leads me to missing a non-refundable hotel. [SPEAKER_00]: But all those things, [SPEAKER_00]: Generally from everyone I've helped get travel insurance.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just feel like it's so cheap one Thing one incident will almost always recoup the entire cost you've paid for not only a trip, but sometimes a year of travel insurance [SPEAKER_01]: And you end up using, you end up putting a claim in almost a year. [SPEAKER_01]: No, not a claim, multiple claims because when you travel as much as we do, there is always things that are going to happen.

[SPEAKER_01]: So then do you do you renew with the same provider? [SPEAKER_01]: And does your premium not just increase significantly because you've put in multiple claims? [SPEAKER_01]: no that's not how insurance works you know it's it's an average of everyone making claims and luckily for the insurance provider most people are not flying around as much as we are when i'm but happy i asked that specifically because it is a common misconception people are worried to claim on that travel insurance because they think that you know when they cut you know when an individual claims wants on their car insurance then that's it you know there were new is just horrendous after that because you you did what you weren't supposed to do and you claimed

[SPEAKER_01]: that that that doesn't actually happen with with with traveling insurance and it it's not structured in the same way and therefore people shouldn't be off claiming what they are rightfully entitled to right precisely and I will say that I've had three different travel insurances in my life and [SPEAKER_00]: Every time that agents seem very keen to help you get your compensation.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's not like medical insurance where they're always trying to wiggle out and find what are they cover, what are they not cover, what's the deduction. [SPEAKER_00]: Here it's just like, yeah, I find travel insurance is one of the best investments you can make to be honest. [SPEAKER_00]: If you travel, I mean, even for one trip, you can buy insurance that covers just one trip and even that is pretty worthwhile.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that's that's true. [SPEAKER_01]: There are a lot of people that've been looking into it because of the advisories at the moment with the occurring conflict in the Middle East. [SPEAKER_01]: The travel insurance is probably not valid if you are traveling somewhere where your countries are [SPEAKER_01]: Ministry of Foreign Affairs or Foreign Office, however, refer to it, is advising you against travel there.

[SPEAKER_01]: So for example, so the Australia, the Smart Traveler Advisory says don't go here, that immediately means the travel insurance is invalid even if you do end up going because the flights are operating, for example, so it's something to be aware of. [SPEAKER_00]: And that's the case in most of Europe as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: So precisely, and that's even if you're on trains it, that can be a risk, because then your insurance does not work, even if you know if your planes were to get disrupted while on trains it, for example, [SPEAKER_00]: And war is always an exception. [SPEAKER_00]: So even if there is not a travel advisory for where you're going, for example, people who were in the Middle East on February 28th when everything started, would have noticed that suddenly their entrances are not very helpful because war is a typical exclusion for those policies.

[SPEAKER_00]: So is yours a global policy? [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, yes, but it doesn't cover war either, unfortunately. [SPEAKER_01]: And do you opt for the extras like, you know, skiing and things like that? [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, no, that's where you draw a line. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it covers injuries when you're not doing like reckless sports.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think skiing counts as a reckless sport. [SPEAKER_00]: So I think it's fine. [SPEAKER_01]: But they're all jumping a reckless sport. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think so either, but for example, I mean, if I'm just picturing that thing where you jump off a cliff with one of those bat suits, I'm pretty sure that would not qualify, but I'm, I don't know, insurance expert.

[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, it covers normal person activities and most things that I would do. [SPEAKER_00]: Most people don't jump off clips in bats suits, as far as I'm aware. [SPEAKER_01]: I, those videos are amazing. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, actually one of my friends has this, I think it's good flying scroll.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's this animal that does that. [SPEAKER_01]: You throw up in the air and then it comes down with like bat wings. [SPEAKER_01]: It's, yeah, it's weird. [SPEAKER_01]: Anyway, um, on a more serious note, we've got a question from James, and of course, it is about the verdict that came through after 17 years of the ongoing air France.

[SPEAKER_01]: Airbus case, this is in relation to the accident, AirFronts 447. [SPEAKER_01]: 17 years later, a few days ago, there was a verdict that has determined that both Airbus and AirFronts are guilty of corporate manslaughter. [SPEAKER_01]: find 225,000 euros each, which of course is something, you know, I mean, that's nothing that they make that in a couple minutes, but it's more about the principle.

[SPEAKER_01]: Both companies are going to appeal to France's top court, and so this is ongoing. [SPEAKER_01]: This ruling is mostly about, I guess, the court's being willing to examine, you know, internal corporate decision-making [SPEAKER_01]: And actually perhaps is helpful to just recap on this ruling that has found Airbus and Air France guilty, which they are appealing, is in relation to what was a very very high profile accident with Air France.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was on the 31st of May, a night flight in 2009. [SPEAKER_01]: when Air France 447 departed Rio, destination was Paris and it should have been a routine long-haul flight on an A330. [SPEAKER_01]: A330 is of course very, very well used and a good safety record all over the globe, and 216 passengers on board 12 crew.

[SPEAKER_01]: and the aircraft disappeared over the southern the South Atlantic in the early hours of the morning and then wreckage was found some days later but it did take two years to find most of the fuselage and also the flight data recorders which are known as black boxes and until those black boxes were recovered in 2011 to years later there was pretty much [SPEAKER_01]: nothing known about what had actually happened in the cockpit that night.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was incredibly uncertain. [SPEAKER_01]: And then the later understanding as to the technical aspect to it and the tubes that are the small probes on the outside of the aircraft that measure air speed that were filling up with ice crystals. [SPEAKER_01]: which then led the air speed indicators inside of the cockpit to provide incorrect readings, so they became invalid.

[SPEAKER_01]: This was all contributing to a scenario in the cockpit where at the time that the autopilot disconnected and the two senior pilots were both resting, which is normal. [SPEAKER_01]: The aircraft ended up suffering with of course autopilot disconnected with false readings [SPEAKER_01]: it was very very problematic and then there were difficulties in handling the aircraft and then ultimately it stalled and the stall warning sounded for a good minute and then the aircraft crashed into the ocean.

[SPEAKER_01]: This, as I said, one of the worst air disasters in aviation history [SPEAKER_00]: Makes and yeah, what do you think the impact of it is and and I know that that both appealing well as I understand it This is really bad news to Arab us and to Arab friends not necessarily because of this Vertic specifically, but because of the precedent its sets of holding Well the aircraft manufacturer and the airline liable [SPEAKER_00]: for an incident that doesn't, on the surface, seem to be their fault.

[SPEAKER_00]: And of course, the airbus has made loads of changes to the E330 and to the way they do things since this incident, since it was, as you said, 2009 so quite a while ago. [SPEAKER_00]: It's significant for the families of the victims in the sense that there is finally some blame being put on these corporations at the same time, both companies will of course appeal because they don't want, they don't want these types of rulings to become a thing, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and ultimately to really keep it simple, what the quote, you know, what they were found guilty [SPEAKER_01]: in simple terms is that basically the court claims that Airbus knew that these sensors could fail in this very specific way and didn't act quickly enough and didn't communicate to the pilots clearly enough about what to do if that were to happen.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's the Airbus side of it. [SPEAKER_01]: With Air France, the court has determined that Air France didn't train its crew adequately [SPEAKER_01]: something like a high altitude stall and the recovery and the procedure involved in that. [SPEAKER_01]: And also failed to properly train them on unreliable air speeds scenarios.

[SPEAKER_01]: So there were real learnings from this incident. [SPEAKER_01]: but that's kind of to compartmentalise that's the two sides of the coin. [SPEAKER_01]: It was that Airbus to an extent knew that sensors could fail that way and therefore didn't do enough to prevent that or to inform them at least to communicate that.

[SPEAKER_01]: and their friends with the similar thing, not providing the trading on those specific scenarios, which again has links to all those years later, the 737 Max crisis, right? [SPEAKER_01]: We barely talk about it now, but at one point it was just a week after week, headline after headline to do with the 737 Max.

[SPEAKER_01]: and part of the findings once the aircraft had been grounded and remember it was only grounded after it crashed twice. [SPEAKER_01]: You know, something quite unbelievable in modern aviation. [SPEAKER_01]: And part of the part of the fault of Boeing was that not only did they know that the aircraft could have entered a nose dive in X, Y, or Z scenario.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's why there was something known [SPEAKER_01]: but they failed to train or communicate the presence of that system. [SPEAKER_01]: to the industry, to the airlines, and crucially, to the pilots. [SPEAKER_01]: So there were many pilots that were completely unaware at the time of this system that was designed to try to counterbalance the aircraft, knowing that it might do this when it shouldn't, and therefore this will kick in at the time.

[SPEAKER_01]: So again, it's that communication part is so key, and the Air France incident is something that the industry allowed a lot from. [SPEAKER_01]: but also it's why it's still, it's still ongoing. [SPEAKER_01]: And this is not about the money, as there's a 225,000 euros, it's pennies for these corporations.

[SPEAKER_01]: But rather, it's symbolic. [SPEAKER_01]: It's about ensuring that something like this never happens again. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, well said. [SPEAKER_00]: Nadia asks, is there still value in signing up for an airline loyalty program or has the whole point some miles game basically been ruined?

[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's only those to you. [SPEAKER_01]: Well, there's two parts that they're asking is the same question. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm interested. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, I wanted to discuss a part of this with you because one side of it is is earning miles and points worth it to redeem yes absolutely that is still worth it [SPEAKER_00]: The other part is, is it worth trying to do that in order to earn airline status?

[SPEAKER_00]: And that is where there's this paradox of if, if you fly economy a lot, the status benefits will be extremely beneficial to you. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, make your experience much smoother. [SPEAKER_00]: You get priority check in, extra luggage, a lounge, etc. [SPEAKER_00]: But earning status while flying economy these days is almost impossible to earn any sort of significant status unless you're flying your long-haul economy every single week.

[SPEAKER_00]: Meanwhile, it is easier to earn status if you're flying business or first class. [SPEAKER_00]: but then the typical benefits that airlines are giving are basically worthless at this point. [SPEAKER_00]: You don't need priority checking. [SPEAKER_00]: You don't need a lounge and all this stuff because you're already getting it.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that's the paradox where in these days when learning statuses becomes so difficult. [SPEAKER_00]: And I'm curious how you think around that, what you're, what you're reasoning is. [SPEAKER_01]: I think I agree with you. [SPEAKER_01]: It's further for the many right for the wider traveling public that are not frequent flyers.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's almost just becoming pointless because it's going to be extremely difficult to be able to get anything. [SPEAKER_01]: You only really benefit through frequent travel and through frequent travel that includes a lot of premium travel. [SPEAKER_01]: And there are still ways to ensure that you can make it each year in qualifying and so I'm but it's getting harder, I would say it feels like it's getting harder every year and I think that's the sentiment shared amongst a lot of uh...

[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of people that are not heavily, you know, business travel has not come back in it's in the same way that it was pre-COVID, for example, it's still down because there's more video conferencing and so on. [SPEAKER_01]: And all of this is impacting whether or not people actually need to be flown around the world for X, Y, or Z conference or meeting that can probably be done just virtually with very little fuss.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I would say all of this is fueling a [SPEAKER_01]: a worsening game of collecting and earning miles and points, and so while these airlines are devaluing their programs and for the public, it's just become more difficult than I would say yeah, it's slowly in some markets becoming less relevant with the exception of those that are tied to credit cards like the U.S. where it's, you know, the U.S. loyalty [SPEAKER_01]: and American and United in some scenarios, the value of those elanlogic schemes, the valuation is greater than that of the valuation of the airline itself.

[SPEAKER_01]: It is worth more and makes more money than actually the airline core business does. [SPEAKER_01]: So it's a big game still in some markets. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think, you know, this point says that airlines, the airline industry in general, we know this is so slow to adapt and modernize and loyalty is another area where I'm afraid outside the US, we're also seeing such a slow development when really what people want these days is customizability.

[SPEAKER_00]: They want to be able to choose the [SPEAKER_00]: what type of perks they get that are useful to them. [SPEAKER_00]: So if if I were running an airline loyalty program, I would set the bar very, very low for entry level status to get a lot of people to feel like they have some sort of loyalty or obligation toward an airline.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because, oh, look, I'm getting these benefits very quickly even if they just fly economy. [SPEAKER_00]: And then I guess. [SPEAKER_00]: Let them choose among a list of very valuable perks, but just one or two of those perks that they will find best. [SPEAKER_00]: So maybe 10 kilos of extra luggage or fast track security, and then they once they reach the next.

[SPEAKER_00]: milestone, they can add an additional benefit. [SPEAKER_00]: So the same goes for people who fly business, exclusively for example, let them choose benefits that are actually useful to them, like getting access to the first class lounge. [SPEAKER_00]: If that's what they think they'll enjoy most, but you don't have to give them everything so that it becomes [SPEAKER_00]: overly rewarding from an airline perspective where you're giving too much away and things are becoming too crowded, but just allow people to do what they find best and don't just give these cookie cutter rewards and benefits that ultimately to me end up making loyalty like lose its appeal at the end of the day.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's really true. [SPEAKER_01]: That's really true. [SPEAKER_01]: A nail has written in to ask about bonus and how common it is for staff to receive a bonus in the aviation sector. [SPEAKER_01]: And this is on the back of news that Emirates and Singapore Airlines are paying pretty large bonuses to every, uh, to each and every staff members because on the back of record profits.

[SPEAKER_01]: But also there is the news over the last week that Qatar [SPEAKER_01]: has had to take the decision not to pay staff bonus this year to all staff. [SPEAKER_01]: And so and we now wait to see what Etihad are going to do. [SPEAKER_01]: Well, that results will look like. [SPEAKER_00]: But the funny thing there is that Etihad and fly Dubai paid their bonuses already the last week of February.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, yes, so they were very lucky with timing. [SPEAKER_01]: Sarah, I stand corrected you all right. [SPEAKER_01]: Eddie had an afloat about were able to obviously nobody knew the start date of the war so just by chance, you know, through their home, their counting calendar, they were able to pay the bonus before the war started and so yeah, that that's why it's a bit of a mixed picture I guess so let's look at it specifically from a golf carrier lens.

[SPEAKER_01]: The whole concept of bonus [SPEAKER_01]: for staff is still very very new. [SPEAKER_01]: It's not something and it's always funny that a lot of attention is is paid to this topic as if it's been around for decades that it's common place that if you work for, for example, an airline in the Middle East, it means that every year you're going to be given bonuses.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, for example, Qatar always, it's only been the case for [SPEAKER_01]: There were never any bonuses paid in the 20, 728 year history of the airline, right? [SPEAKER_01]: And that was similar and also true of Emirates who also only started in the last few years to on the back of record profit, say, okay, let's share some of this as a bonus with staff.

[SPEAKER_01]: Singapore Airlines have been doing it a bit longer, but also it's really been after the rebound [SPEAKER_01]: and awarding bonus to staff. [SPEAKER_01]: Now, the interesting sentiment here is that there is, the people that I've been speaking to have been seeing it completely, you know, I get two very, very kind of polar opposite views.

[SPEAKER_01]: On one side, people understandably believe that it has been a very, very complex, difficult year for airlines in the Gulf, and I don't mean financially, they've had a great year, financially, almost all of them. [SPEAKER_01]: But it's been difficult with geopolitics and airspace restrictions and the event that happened last June and then also in September and I won't go through it.

[SPEAKER_01]: But there's, you know, the Middle East has been through it, right? [SPEAKER_01]: And with that, the staff members who have been showing up every day have really, really put in that commitment versus if you're just somewhere where there was a geopolitical risk. [SPEAKER_01]: So they're taking those, you know, that being there, that staying loyal and also that they're really delivering.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think everyone would agree that anyone who is showing up for work and working hard deserves if there are bonuses available, if there's excess profit to be shared, a bonus, right? [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think anyone would ever disagree with that. [SPEAKER_01]: On the other hand, this ongoing conflict right now is wiping off.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, for the bulk of the crisis, that first part it was wiping off in excess of a hundred million US dollars a day from these airlines. [SPEAKER_01]: These airlines were pouring out bleeding cash constantly. [SPEAKER_01]: And that is not something that has recovered in any significant way at the moment, because the conflict is still ongoing, airspace is still restricted.

[SPEAKER_01]: And these airlines, Emirates, Qatar and so on, are still not at 100% of that capacity. [SPEAKER_01]: In fact, I noticed that Emirates have just trimmed that capacity again for over the summer, so there will be a fresh wave of cancellations with Emirates, because where they had announced they were almost at 100%.

[SPEAKER_01]: I note that in the GDS now, from around June time, mid-June is heading back down towards 85%. [SPEAKER_01]: And that's because of the ongoing situation. [SPEAKER_01]: Cata Roe is climbing towards 70%, so they've still got quite a bit of a way to go. [SPEAKER_01]: So there was this conversation in the industry of the last few days, because Cata Roe is on the back of their financial results in form staff that because of the ongoing conflict, because of the uncertainty of the conditions [SPEAKER_01]: and Qatar is geographically a different situation to that of the UAE that they wouldn't be able to pay a staff bonus this year as they had been able to enjoy and pay last year and the previous year which were considered normal years but again before that it wasn't a thing and so that's I think has been a very difficult that's been difficult.

[SPEAKER_01]: uh, for the staff who were expecting it because of the expectation now of bonus. [SPEAKER_00]: That was tough. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and everyone can sympathise with that. [SPEAKER_01]: And at the same time, I would say that if you were talking to a random, a random lady in New Zealand, and you said, hey, you know, those Middle East carriers, and she said, yes, and you said, you know, Qatar, and she said, oh, that's very close to Iran, and that's in the centre of, over at all, and yeah, and they had their [SPEAKER_01]: open yet and she would say yes and you'd say they they're only at 60 or 65% of their total flight capacity at the moment you know that pre-war flight capacity and she would say okay you know that sounds difficult and you'd say yeah and they're building back and restoring where they can but this year as a result of what's still ongoing

[SPEAKER_01]: they're not going to be able to pay their staff bonus on top of their salaries. [SPEAKER_01]: I feel like an individual outside of the aviation world would think, okay, well, that sounds logical, no? [SPEAKER_01]: Doesn't that sound fair? [SPEAKER_01]: And so you have to remove the emotion out of it, and remember that for these airlines, Emirates, Etihad, fly Dubai, Qatar, Kuwait, Gulf, Saudi, the low-cost and Saudi, all of them, [SPEAKER_01]: This situation has not ended, there is no meaningful end yet, so that operating environment is just a constant of is just prevailing uncertainty and how when they were hammering a hundred mil plus a day, are they going to be able to protect themselves from

[SPEAKER_01]: potentially it'll flaring up and getting much worse again as Donald Trump keeps hinting at as he did last week where he said that last Tuesday he was supposed to wipe out Iran again, you know, what's that? [SPEAKER_01]: How? [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, what are your thoughts on that? [SPEAKER_01]: I've tried to set the scene as best as I can.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so my my perspective is we understand there is you know extraordinary circumstances [SPEAKER_00]: I think this puts even more eyes on next year and whether there is a bonus then because Emirates has no obligation to pay a bonus obviously. [SPEAKER_00]: They did that anyway. [SPEAKER_00]: And Emirates as we know is the first, generally the first choice for people applying for an airline in the Middle East.

[SPEAKER_00]: So people will apply for Emirates and then they apply for it. [SPEAKER_00]: And a lot of that is to do with Dubai, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Exactly. [SPEAKER_00]: The appeal of living Dubai. [SPEAKER_00]: Yes. [SPEAKER_00]: So, people will apply for Emirates and then go to the other carriers depending on if they get the job at Emirates or not.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, the fact that Emirates staff got this bonus, you could say, is a great way to continue to attract the best talent and to be the first choice for people's applications. [SPEAKER_00]: On that note, guys, thank you for joining us today on Air. [SPEAKER_00]: We look forward to seeing you next week on Wednesday as always.

[SPEAKER_00]: Bye-bye.

Why Nobody's Flying to the World Cup (And What That Means for Fares This Summer)

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