OpenAI Could Go Bust by Summer, Says Financial Expert Sebastian Mallaby

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OpenAI says it will burn $280 billion by 2030. Sebastian Mallaby gives it a 50/50 chance of running out of money by next summer. So what happens when the world's most prominent AI lab goes bust — and does the US government step in?

Sebastian Mallaby — Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of The Infinity Machine, a biography of DeepMind co-founder Demis Hassabis — joins Sir Richard Dearlove and John Raine. They discuss the financial fragility of the leading AI labs, why open-weight AI models are too dangerous to permit, how a US-China non-proliferation deal for AI might work, and what a war game about nuclear submarines revealed about where this is all heading.

In this episode:

(00:00) AI Race Between US and China

(02:08) Sebastian Mallaby on AI Safety

(02:51) Is AI a Blessing or Curse?

(04:03) Who to Trust on AI Safety

(05:35) Demis Hassabis and AI Regulation

(08:23) Cold War Lessons for AI Safety

(11:42) Trump Administration AI Policy

(14:59) Private AI Safety Monitoring

(20:57) Open Weight AI Models Debate

(23:00) Does AI Replicate Consciousness?

(33:24) Is AI Investment a Bubble?

(45:39) AI War Game Nuclear Submarine Scenario

(54:37) The One Decision Open Weight AI

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies).

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