OIES Podcast – The US Midterm Elections, the Iran War and the Outlook for Global Oil Markets

In this episode, Bassam Fattouh, Director of OIES, and Paul Horsnell, independent consultant and Chair of the Board of Governors at OIES, discuss the latest developments in global oil markets amid the ongoing US–Iran war and the approaching US midterm elections. They examine the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz, global oil supply and demand dynamics, and whether the market’s adjustment mechanisms are beginning to lose their effectiveness in the face of the biggest supply shock in the history of oil markets. The discussion also explores the implications for geopolitics, refining and product markets, futures trading and global oil trade flows, providing an update on the key risks and dynamics shaping the oil market outlook.

Key questions explored in this podcast include:

• Could the US midterm elections trigger a fundamental shift in the US–Iran conflict and oil market dynamics?

• Are rising flows through the Strait of Hormuz a sign of normalization?

• As the disruption continues, are the market’s adjustment mechanisms and buffers beginning to lose their effectiveness?

• Why has open interest in Brent and WTI futures continued to decline despite easing price volatility?

• Are futures markets becoming disconnected from physical oil market fundamentals?

• How will exceptionally wide refining margins and tightening product markets be resolved?

• How are higher freight rates and insurance premiums reshaping global oil trade flows?

• What explains China’s adjustment to the supply shock, and could a recovery in Chinese imports drive the next phase of the market?

• Will the global oil market shift into a massive surplus in 2027 and which indicators should market participants watch most closely?

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