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RenMac Off-Script: Lack of Conviction
RenMac discusses the Fed’s risk-management cut and the political dynamics shaping Powell’s next moves, why the internal divisions on rate cuts matter for markets, and what the latest housing and construction data signal for jobs andgrowth.
RenMac Off-Script: Market Highs with Fed at Crossroads
RenMac discusses how Fed politics and the upcoming FOMC decision are colliding with market expectations, why shutdown risks remain elevated despite hopes for cooler partisan tensions, and how tariffs with China, Mexico, and India are evolvi
RenMac Mailbag Question Introduce
They say some people have a face for radio. You? You've got a face for Off-Script. Send us your question via video or audio clip for the RenMac Mailbag. Fame optional. Hats guaranteed. https://start.renmac.com/renmac-mailbag-video
RenMac Off-Script: Jobs Stumble as Gold Runs
In Today’s Report: RenMac unpacks a payrolls miss that highlights rising slack in the labor market, why consumer sentiment has flipped from bullish to a bearish contrarian signal, and how government shutdown odds are climbing well above nor
RenMac Off-Script: China Breakout & Fed Shakeout
This week on RenMac Off-Script, Steve, Jeff, and Pavlik are joined by special guest Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The team digs into the Fed shakeup after President Trump’s firing of Lisa Cook, the implications for market s
RenMac Off-Script: We’ll Take Your Money, Not Your Two Cents
RenMac unpacks why Asian and frontier markets are rallying despite tariffs, how Trump’s industrial policy is morphing into “state capitalism,” the risks of politicizing Fed appointments with the Lisa Cook scandal, and why stagflation fears
RenMac Off-Script: Money Illusion
RenMac discusses the latest in economic data, including how prices are flattering retail sales; the leap to get the FOMC to support a 50bp move; market leadership from small caps to Asia and the improvement in consumer discretionary relativ
RenMac Off-Script: Trump/Powell Play Chicken
RenMac breaks down the sharp rise in effective tariffs and who’s really paying for them, how firms may react to margin pressure with layoffs or price hikes, the macro regime shift that’s pulling markets back to pre-GFC behavior, how game th
RenMac Off-Script: Summer Soft-Patch
RenMac unpacks the sharp job revisions and weakening prime-age employment suggesting contraction, explores the Fed’s credibility crisis and potential for a September-to-December rate cut cycle, critiques Trump’s strategic positioning on the
RenMac Off-Script: Don't Fist Fight the Fed
RenMac talks tariffs and who really bears the burden, Trump’s Fed site-visit and true objective, the narrow market excuse and why it’s more bearish propaganda than insightful utility, and the negative global liquidity story imbedded in JGB
RenMac Off-Script: Shutdown Surprise
RenMac discusses the Fed Chair race and Trump’s strategy, NVDA-led chip diplomacy with China and crypto legislation, markets ignoring rising shutdown risks, seasonal patterns shifting the beta/momentum trade, and the unusual dynamic of risi
RenMac Off-Script: Tariff Tangle Reignited
RenMac’s crew dives into recent tariff announcements, the unpriced probability of a U.S. Govt shutdown in October, Momentum vs Beta, Fed’s stance on interest rates and surface level employment data, Bitcoin’s breakout and vacationing in Med
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls, PMIs & Poolside Predictions
RenMac dives into the July 4th weekend with a fresh look at the payroll surprise, Fed expectations, the global PMI paradox, and whether the market can stomach high rates. Neil unpacks sluggish job growth beneath the headline beat, Jeff outl
RenMac Off-Script: The Apprentice: Fed Edition
RenMac discusses the case to be made for the next Fed chair, the latest on crude oil, the Middle East, July’s seasonal strength, the perceived disconnect between markets and the economy and the reality of that perception, along with a sugge
RenMac Off-Script: Is Tehran About to Eat a TACO?
RenMac walks through this week’s Fed decision, Iran’s exit ramp, weakness in housing, the Byrd Bath, RMs 20% allocation to commodities, the overbought condition in oil and the momentum in financials.
RenMac Off-Script: TDS Gives Way to IDF
RenMac Discusses TDS (Tariff Derangement Syndrome) giving way to IDF (Israeli Defense Forces), message out of real-rates, the employment picture, trajectory of the Fed, breakout in precious metals and Tuesday’s Senate bill on stablecoin.
RenMac Off-Script: Caught in a Bad Bromance
RenMac discusses the latest payroll print and why the Fed may use it to stay on the sidelines, the improvement in small-cap performance, the call between Xi and Trump, and the implications of the fallout between Musk and Trump.
RenMac Off-Script: TACO: Tariffs Are Constitutional or Not
RenMac discuss the latest developments on the tariff front, the administration’s multiple avenues to pursue their trade agenda, the slowing in the labor and housing markets, and the nuance behind the adage of “sell in May and go away.”
RenMac Off-Script Podcast: More to Rates than U.S. Fiscal
RenMac talks government bonds, the divergence in the $ and rates, the global repudiation of government debt, and the implications, Bitcoin’s new high, Trump’s tax bill, and the importance of momentum from this point forward.
RenMac Off-Script Podcast: GOP Bond Boo-Boo?
RenMac double-clicks on bond market’s message, GOP reconciliation, deGraaf’s Thrust and implications, Gold’s seasonality, energy implications and Knicks vs Celtics
RenMac Off-Script: Holy Smokes
RenMac dives into the latest on tariffs, Powell’s position, the RenMac Retest Rule, Communion suggestions for the new Pope, how the markets and the economy are similar but different, and the definition of a Knickerbocker
RenMac Off-Script: Strategic Uncertainty
RenMac unpacks the latest employment report, the discrepancy between soft and hard data, the importance of considering “what can go right vs wrong” when bearish sentiment is at an extreme, the potential for thawing trade negotiations, the l
RenMac Off-Script: Clock Ticking on Trade
RenMac discusses Trump backing off on Powell’s firing, why a slower growth environment could mean a more consensus Fed pick, the latest in trade negotiations, what areas to watch to see how survey-data and hard-data reconcile, what tactical
RenMac Off-Script: “You're Fired”?
RenMac discusses the importance of the Fed’s independence, the likely options, the dark-cross in the Mag-7 and the implications historically for alpha generation, the latest on trade, the cards other countries may be able to play against th
RenMac Off-Script: Bond Market Takes Hostages
RenMac walks through the turmoil in bonds, China’s alternatives to creating negotiation leverage, deleveraging vs system risk, increasing recession outlook, tariff miscalculation, rising correlations, and the implications of the 10th best s
RenMac Off-Script: Obliteration Day
RenMac discusses the difference between trade deficits and tariffs, the “escalate to de-escalate” strategy, today’s payroll numbers, how the Fed is thinking about rates, the spike in capitulation measures, and having a mind-set of “what can
RenMac Off-Script: Bad News Priced
RenMac discusses the upcoming “Liberation Day,” why much of the bad news might already be priced in, the strike price on the respective Trump and Fed put, and how economic conditions were already slowing before Trump was sworn into office,
RenMac Off-Script: Tariffied
RenMac unpacks the FOMC meeting, Trump’s conversation with Putin, the deteriorating transportation names, tariff uncertainty, the likelihood of a downside economic surprise in coming months, Schumer’s unwinnable position and how moving aver
RenMac Off-Script: Eggs-cellent
RenMac discusses the potential strategy behind Schumer’s decision to avoid a government shutdown, the contribution of egg prices to CPI, the deteriorating news flow with the spike in bearish market sentiment, the potential Canadian tariff s
RenMac Off-Script: A Weak Outlook Trump's Making Worse
RenMac dissects the payrolls, the latest tariff moves, the importance of credit indications and the complete unwind of beta as well as this weeks mail-bag.
