299 - Robert Pape: Trump Is Making Iran STRONGER—and America WEAKER

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Robert Pape is Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. In this episode, Robert and Robinson discuss why the Iran war has become an escalation trap for Donald Trump, the United States, and Israel. More particularly, they talk about Pape’s argument that the war has strengthened Iran while weakening America’s regional position, Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, and how cheap drones and precision weapons are changing the balance of military power. They also discuss how the 2026 midterms could prolong escalation, the limits of predicting war, how AI could make political assassinations easier, and the risks of weapons operating without human oversight. Robert’s latest book is Our Own Worst Enemies: America in the Age of Violent Populism (The New Press, 2026).
Robert’s Substack (Prof Robert Pape): professorrobertpape.substack.com
Robert’s Substack (Escalation Trap): escalationtrap.substack.com
Robert’s YouTube: youtube.com/@ProfRobertPape
Our Own Worst Enemies: thenewpress.org/books/our-own-worst-enemies
OUTLINE
00:00 Introduction
00:45 Why the Iran War Is Nowhere Near Over
08:08 How Iran Can Defy a Superpower
15:22 How Cheap Drones Changed the Balance of Power
20:31 Is America Building Weapons for the Wrong War?
29:00 Why War Experts Must Risk Being Wrong
40:25 Has Pape Been Wrong About Iran?
45:33 How Time Shifts the Balance of Power
51:23 Why the 2026 Midterms May Prolong the Iran War
55:16 How a Leader’s Health Can Change a War
1:01:40 How Assassinations and Elections Can Upend the World
1:05:28 Is AI Making Iran’s Attacks More Deadly?
1:07:38 Could AI Make Assassinations Easier?
1:13:36 Could Hezbollah Shut Down Israel’s Ports?
1:18:25 When Weapons Act Without Human Control
Robinson Erhardt researches symbolic logic and the foundations of mathematics at Stanford University, where he is also a JD candidate in the Law School.