Polysilicon supply chains may surprise you. US jobs data today!

Today, a look at how the market is positioned ahead of today's US jobs data and how a surprise - especially a negative surprise - might read across markets. Also, a brief discussion of polysilicon supply chains, which may surprise you, as China only dominates one of the key two production types. Also, a preview of the many interesting names reporting earnings next week. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Aakash Gupta points out the potential scale of impacts if this El Niño is as disruptive as the late 1990's one (x.com/aakashgupta/status/2085235419483181257), which he argues compounded to a cost of US 5.7 trillion over the following 14 years.

• An FT exclusive delves into how Google puts in place the financing pipeline to drive USD 200B of spending on Anthropic (ft.com/content/549f2e23-5aa2-49c7-9ea6-a9784ab…), especially to sell its own chips to the company.

• And Ed Zitron suggests that 70% of Microsoft, Amazon and Google's AI-related revenue is derived from the black hole of OpenAI and Anthropic unprofitable spending (wheresyoured.at/the-ai-demand-bubble).

• ChipTycoon, an info-animation, (laurentiugabriel.github.io/ChipTycoon) shows the complexity of semiconductor supply chains in the style of the Rollercoaster Tycoon game.

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack (johnjhardy.substack.com).

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