School of War

America’s Coming Population Crash—and China’s, with Nicholas Eberstadt

Freitag, 8. Mai 2026 · 55 min

MP3

Shownotes

Nicholas Eberstadt, the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute, joins School of War to discuss global population decline. What does a shrinking and aging population mean for the United States? What does it mean for China, whose demographic crisis may be even more severe? How could population decline reshape economic growth, military power, and geopolitical competition? And what happens to the international order when the world stops growing?

Population decline in America

006:15 Deaths exceeding births in the US

Global birth crash

Grounds for optimism

Small family trend

GDP relationship with population size

Individual prosperity vs. National strength

Rise in human life expectancy

Ben Carson’s prediction

Ukraine’s military revolution

American bad habits

AI and the labor market

Chinese depopulation crisis

What would a world war look like today?

US Alliance relationships

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