What The Siberia Plague Scare Teaches About Uncertainty

0:02 You are listening to the Common Sense Practical Prepper, sponsored by Duct Tape, the real Duct Tape. It fixes everything except bad decisions. Good evening, Mr. and Mrs. America. From border to border, coast to coast, and all ships at sea. Here is your host, Keith.

0:20 Hey, all this is Keith, and welcome back to the Common Sense Practical Prepper Podcast, October the 7th, 2026. Give everybody a quick heads up. Episode 19 is almost ready to be recorded. And episode 20 for Lone Man on the Ridge is in the draft stage. So I hope to have both of those online by Sunday evening, next Monday at the latest.

0:50 Thanks again for all the emails I received over the last few days. I will definitely try to get a mailbag episode out as soon as I can. So for tonight's podcast, I almost didn't do this episode. I'm sure a lot of you have been watching the story out of Siberia with this plague. And I think it's important to understand exactly what's going on.

1:16 And normally, if there's not a lot of good information out there, especially about something potentially of this magnitude, normally that's a good reason not to record it if you don't have a lot of solid information that you can confirm. But the more I thought about it, the more I realized the fact that we don't know that much at this point might just be the reason to talk about it.

1:41 But this episode is not entirely about the plague. This episode is about uncertainty. And it's what you do when something potentially serious is about to happen or can happen. You get conflicting information, and normally you don't get enough information to know exactly what has happened. And I believe that's the stage we are with the situation in Siberia.

2:06 So as of Wednesday evening, October 7th, this is what I know. This is what I found out that I can confirm. A 28-year-old woman named Daria Shiplova worked at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute in Siberia. Yes, that's a real place. They research plague and other dangerous infectious diseases. Now, you would be surprised at the number of labs, either commercial labs, military labs, or secret labs, that the United States and other countries have all over the world.

2:42 They are there, trust me. So Daria got severe pneumonia, was hospitalized in a little town not far from where she worked. She was put on a vent, and last week, unfortunately, she passed away. And the people around her that she worked with and had contact with otherwise were put under medical observation.

3:04 That's about 200 of them by most reports, with more than 60 of those being staff at the institute that were also isolated. So that's it. That's all we know for sure. Then there's what everybody else is claiming, and I'm not even going down that rabbit hole. I'm not even going to give it the bandwidth.

3:25 But there are reports that she may have been exposed to Yersenia pestis. That's the bacterium that causes plague. And she apparently, allegedly, may have been exposed to it in a lab accident. But no one, including the Russians, has been able to independently confirm that. And then there's the Russian version.

3:50 The Russian health authorities say she died of pneumonia of an unknown origin. They say their testing did not find anything connected to her work. They said there was no lab accident. So I want you to notice what they said. Unknown origin means they're telling us they don't know what killed her. But in the same breath, they're telling us that they know what did not kill her.

4:17 So keep that in mind. And here's what the Russians are saying now. As of this afternoon, they're saying that not one of her close contacts has tested positive and that they're letting people out of quarantine. That's Russia's word for it. No one outside Russia has been able to check that. And I'm not taking anybody completely at their word because the question I would ask is if you sent 200 people into medical observation and you isolated some of the lab staff, what were you worried about?

4:58 I don't have an answer to that, but those are steps that you don't take unless there is a reason to take those. So let's be clear about where we currently stand. No one has confirmed a mnemonic plague outbreak in Siberia. No one has confirmed person-to-person spread. And no one outside of Russia has confirmed what actually killed this young lady.

5:24 Not confirmed does not mean it did not happen. And it doesn't mean that it did. It basically means we don't know. Now, the folks here in the States, the U.S. government is closely watching this. On Monday, Secretary Marco Rubio said the U.S. is watching it closely. And he said something that I thought was spot on.

5:48 I don't think it's a cause for alarm, but it is a cause for focus. He also warned that if something like this got out, it could spread quickly. So then the next day, he called on Russia to be more transparent. He has said multiple U.S. agencies are watching this hour by hour, but he said it's very difficult to get ahead of it without Russia being a little more transparent.

6:12 So think about the last part. Our own Secretary of State is publicly asking Russia for more information. You don't ask somebody to be more transparent when you think you're getting all the correct information. And you've probably seen the headlines where the WHO, the World Health Organization, is now calling it low risk.

6:35 So here's what we need to understand about that. The WHO isn't over there running their own tests. Its assessment is based on information that it has been given by Russia. So take that with a grain of salt. So when you hear the WHO say risk is low, what they're really saying is the WHO looked at the information that Russia provided them, and based on that, it appears to be low risk.

7:00 That is not an independent confirmation. That's the Russian story repeated by the WHO. I'm not telling you that the WHO is wrong. What I'm telling you is that one source repeated twice is still one source. But here is what has changed recently. Even the WHO is now publicly saying that it needs more information from Russia as well.

7:24 The head of the WHO said they've asked Russia to clarify what caused her pneumonia. What pathogen made the Russians start quarantining people in the first place? And there's reports of a second employee who may have died from the same pneumonia. But we haven't got confirmation about that either. So I went around, I poked around, and I traced the stories from the second employee.

7:53 And what I found was these reports lead back to a British tabloid, quoting unnamed Russian media. No name, no official confirmation. So again, I just set that one to the side. So no one has confirmed that. So I don't know, and neither do you. And it's getting serious enough that the U.S. has filed a formal diplomatic complaint with Russia, pushing them for more transparency.

8:22 Now, I'm sure a formal diplomatic complaint has probably as much teeth as a strongly worded email coming from the UN. I think that's just done for semantics. President Trump said he'll be talking to Putin about it. The Kremlin says they're open to a call, but nothing has been scheduled because they've yet to confirm anything.

8:44 We're living in an age where everybody wants an answer immediately. And if someone doesn't have an answer, the internet comes to the rescue and will happily manufacture all sorts of answers. In the meantime, most of them have no basis in fact. Now let's talk about the word plague for a moment. Because when most people hear plague, they think of Black Death.

9:09 They think of medieval Europe. They think about rats and fleas and plague doctors walking around in those silly-looking outfits. But the pneumonic plague is different. Pneumonic plague is an infection of the lungs caused by the Yersenia pestis. But unlike the bubonic plague, pneumonic plague can be transmitted directly from person to person through respiratory droplets, sneezing, coughing, saliva, that sort of thing.

9:36 It can become very serious if not quickly treated. But there's something else that is just as important. It is very, very treatable. You hit it with the right antibiotics early on, and you have an excellent chance of a full recovery. And there's another reason why I'm kind of keen on this story. In 1979, there was a severe anthrax outbreak in a Soviet city that I cannot pronounce.

10:01 People died, and the government said it was because they ate contaminated meat. Meat contaminated with anthrax. Very odd, but that was their story. There also was a secret military biological facility right there in the same town. And the pattern of illnesses pointed to anthrax spores in the air causing the illness and deaths.

10:26 The Soviets denied it for years. Then in 1992, after the Soviet Union fell, Boris Yeltsin said, Yeah, you got us. There was a secret bio lab there. It was weapons grade, and we accidentally released it. So now I'm not telling you that because it proves that Russia is lying today about this. It does not.

10:46 I'm telling you because it shows why independent verification matters. Governments have explained away biological incidents before, and the explanation turns out not to be the entire story. So, with all of that said, what do we do with all of this information? I don't automatically believe the most frightening version of this story.

11:08 And I don't automatically believe the least frightening version either. I don't know exactly what's going on, and I'm comfortable saying that. In fact, I think being able to say, I don't know, is one of the most useful skills a prepper can have because of this. Because if you cannot admit that you don't know something, you're going to make decisions based on assumptions.

11:35 And making decisions based on assumptions can lead to bad outcomes. And that's when things can get dangerous. It's important to say it could be this, this could be the root cause, it could be something else. Let's investigate, let's find out, and let's stay ready for either outcome while we look into it.

12:00 That is a skill, not knowing the answer, but being ready while you investigate and wait for the correct answer. Okay, so now let's take this back into a practical prepper type of conversation. Even if this particular story turns out to be nothing, it raises a legitimate question. What would you do if a serious respiratory infectious disease showed up in your town or city?

12:27 You wake up one morning and the local news, good evening, folks. There is a serious respiratory infection circulating in your area. Hospitals are getting very busy, they're nearly overrun. And you don't know yet how serious it's going to become. What do you have? That's where respiratory protection comes into the conversation.

12:47 I am not telling everybody to run out and buy a military gas mask. I'm talking about basic protection here. A properly fitted respirator can reduce your exposure to airborne particles. And I keep coming back to the word fit, and we'll talk about fit probably three more times. Because you can spend a couple hundred dollars on a respirator, put it on your face, and still not have the protection you think you have because it doesn't seal, it doesn't fit properly.

13:17 Air takes the path of least resistance. And if there's a gap around your face, that is a problem. You also have to think about eye protection in situations where respiratory droplets or splashes can be a concern. And then there's something that doesn't cost you anything. Your behavior. If there is a serious respiratory illness circulating, avoiding unnecessary exposure matters a lot.

13:46 Distance matters, ventilation matters, and if you're sick yourself, staying away from other people matters. We sometimes get so focused on gear that we forget that behavior is a very important part of being prepared. Now, briefly, we'll go into the different types of respiratory protection. You've got disposable respirators, you've got half-face respirators, then you've got the full face respirators, and you've got specialized equipment designed for people who work around specific biological hazards.

14:22 Let's start with the disposable ones. Most of us know them as the N95 mask. And here's the one thing I want you to remember about buying them. Look for NIOSH. That's the National Institute for Occupational Safe and Health. A real one, a real N95 or a real mask, will have that approval printed right on the mask along with an approval number.

14:49 During COVID, the market was flooded with these knockoffs. If it doesn't say NIOSH, don't trust it. Next step up is the half-face respirator. That's the rubber or silicon mask that covers your nose and mouth. Cartridges or filters screw into the sides. You've probably seen them at a hardware store sitting next to the paint supplies.

15:13 The mask itself is reusable, but you have to swap out the filters. So here's why I like a half-face respirator for the household chores. It seals better than most disposables, it lasts for years, and one mask with a few set of filters covers a lot of things. Then we have the full face respirator, which is what people think when you say respirator.

15:39 Normally everybody automatically thinks of the full face version. Same idea, covers your whole face and it protects your eyes as well. So that solves the eye protection problem in one piece of gear. They cost more, and for most families, a good half-face respirator and a pair of sealed goggles gets you most of the way there.

16:04 So we'll slow down for a second because this is where some people get it wrong at hardware stores. Every one of these masks and filters has a little code on it, a letter and a number. Once you know how to read it, you can walk up to a shelf and know what you're looking at. So let's start with the letter.

16:22 N as in Nancy means not oil resistant. R means somewhat oil resistant. P, P as in Paul, means oil proof. For germs, the oil part doesn't matter, so don't get hung up on that part. Now the number 95, 99, or 100. That's the percentage of airborne particles that it filters out. And 100% doesn't technically mean 100.

16:52 It means 99.97. Nobody gets a full 100 score. So the N95 and a P100 will both stop particles. The P100 stops more of them and it holds up a little longer. Now let's talk about cartridges versus filters because they are two very distinct items. A cartridge and a filter are not the same thing. A particulate filter stops particles, dust, smoke particles, germs riding on droplets in the air.

17:28 On most brands, those are pink or magenta colored, mark P100. A gas or vapor cartridge is different. They're normally black, yellow, or green. They have full activated carbon inside, and they're built to soak up the chemical fumes, paint, solvents, that sort of thing. So here's the problem. A vapor cartridge alone is not what you want for germs.

17:56 So picture this somebody hears there's an illness going around. They grab the respirator off the paint aisle with big black organic vapor cartridges on it. It looks serious, it looks legit, and they think they're protected, but they're protected against the wrong thing. If you want both, they make combination cartridges.

18:17 A vapor cartridge with a particulate filter built in or stacked on top. Read the label. If it doesn't say P100 or N95 somewhere, it's not doing the job that you need it to do here. One more thing on the mask itself. A lot of masks have an exhalation valve, the little round thing on the front. It makes breathing out easier.

18:41 But here's what people don't realize the air you breathe goes in through the filter. All right, fair enough. The air you breathe goes out through the valve. That air is not filtered. So a valved mask protects you. It doesn't protect the people around you. Now, if you're healthy, you're fine. But if you're the one who is sick or you're taking care of someone in your house who is at risk, you want the mask without a valve or cover the valve with a surgical mask.

19:12 And here's something that is very obvious, but I'll say it anyway because it's a safety thing. A respirator cleans the air you breathe. It does not add oxygen. So if you are somewhere in a low oxygen environment, a closed space, smoky house fire, a filter mask will not save you. That's why firefighters wear the tanks on their backs, the SCBA, self-contained breathing apparatus.

19:41 It's a completely sealed system. So don't ever let a mask make you braver than you really are and put you in a place that that mask is not built for. Last thing about filters, they do not last forever. Change it when breathing becomes noticeably difficult, when it's wet, damaged, or dirty, or when the manufacturer says you need to replace it.

20:03 And when you take one off after being around someone that is sick, treat it like it's contaminated. Because it might be put it in a bag, wash your hands, don't just toss it on the kitchen counter. So here's my rule of thumb. If you're not sure whether to change a filter or not, just change it. Filters are relatively inexpensive.

20:23 It takes a lot more to replace your lungs if they are damaged. So now let's go back to fit. Facial hair. A beard breaks the seal. Period. It doesn't matter how good the mask is, if there's hair between the rubber and your skin, the air is going around it, not through it. I know. So I have a beard. But if I'm counting on a respirator, I gotta be completely straight.

20:49 You need to have a plan. Having a plan, even if that plan is I will shave when I have to, or I'll shave when the event happens, just know that ahead of time. And I think that's probably gonna be my plan. I shave once a year, normally in the early spring. But I think if I'm actually going to be serious about this, I will probably at this point be in a position where I will tell myself if the situation comes to the need to wear a mask, I am just going to shave right then, get it over with so that I'm prepared.

21:26 Also, very important with your masks, do a seal check every time you put it on. Cover the filters with your palms and breathe in gently. The mask should pull in against your face and stay there. Then cover the exhale valve and breathe out. It should puff out a little bit without any air leaking around the edges.

21:46 If you feel air on your cheeks or your eyes, adjust the straps and try the fit test again. Also, try it on now, not when you get the bad news, not when you have just a few minutes or a few hours to prepare for whatever happens to be coming. Wear it around your house for 30 minutes. Find out where the straps pinch because they will.

22:08 If it fogs up, fogs your glasses. If you feel claustrophobic, at least you know, and then you can deal with that ahead of time. It's a lot easier to fix all these problems on a quiet Saturday afternoon than in the middle of a situation when SHTF happens. So, what does a reasonable kit look like? And here's a very common sense version.

22:32 For every adult in the house, one reusable half-face respirator with a few sets of P100 filters, plus a box of the NIOSH approved N95 masks for the entire family. Sealed goggles for each person, some nitrile gloves, plenty of soap. Now, for the kids, and this is important, most N95s and respirators are designed and certified for adult faces.

22:59 So if you've got little ones, look for products specifically made for children, or maybe talk to your pediatrician about something that would make sense. And for the youngest kids, the honest answer is that behavior does most of the work. Distance, ventilation, keeping them away from people who might be sick.

23:17 Keep your masks somewhere cool, dry, and out of the sun, not in the car, not in the attic, because heat kills the elastic and the rubber. Disposable masks have a shelf life. And I've put them on before. And when you start to put them on, if the strap breaks because the elastic snaps because it's so old, the mask is done as well.

23:36 Toss it and get one that works. So with this particular story, every day or two I'll keep an eye on it, I'll scrub the internet, I'll see if anything else happens to be coming. And I think this is a situation where we should start paying a little more attention. And again, get your information from multiple sources.

23:57 There's also news about the tropical storm that may turn into a hurricane down in the Gulf of America and head north, maybe making landfall Thursday or Friday, or maybe Friday, Saturday, I believe Alabama, Mississippi, around in there. We'll have to double check probably tomorrow to see if the track has tightened up a little bit.

24:19 So, folks down in that part of the country, we've lucked out for the past year and a half on hurricanes. We haven't had one make landfall, but if you don't have a hurricane kit, then it's definitely time to put one together. All right, folks, I appreciate everybody stopping by, practical prep podcast at gmail.com.

24:38 Check me out on the Twitters, prep underscore podcast. And as always, please be careful out there. Take care of one another, and until next time.

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