Sharp or Square - NFL WEEK 7 BETS: Patriots-Bears, Chiefs-Seahawks and more

0:00 Welcome to Sharper Square presented by PolyMarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co-host, my BFF, my compadre, professional batter, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

0:25 Chad, how we doing? Brother. Brother.

0:29 We are off a four-in-one week in the contest. Great week for the show. We lost our brass balls with the Los Angeles Chargers. We hit on Chad's choice, which was the Raiders, on Simon Says, which was the Browns. Our Discord grouper, join it, readthenumber.com, because we won with the Browns. We won on our closing time. Thank you, Washington Commanders, for your furious second-half comeback. And we won both our sharp versus square picks. Outrageous. Outrageous. Do you remember when we talked about this on Sunday's show? Week six saw 11 of 14 games decided by one score.

1:21 So I went back because it feels like a lot of blown leads this past week. Several double-digit leads were blown and teams either scrape by on the cover or they outright lost, looking at you Colts, Ravens. There have been 80 games this year, Simon, in which a team had a double digit lead, 17 of those games. The team leading lost plus one tie, you know who, Washington Commanders.

1:54 31 other of those games ended with the team that was leading by double digits only winning by one score. I quantified that as eight points or less. So look, that's.

2:07 48 of the 80, I think, games, more than 50% of the games in which double digit leads have essentially been blown or potentially backdoored.

2:21 What do you think of that?

2:21 I think, if you're following people that are on social media or anything complaining about that and losing their bets that way, you are fine. An amateur better and a loser, a long-term loser. If that it's totally irrelevant. If games come back, you're literally, your bet doesn't cash until the game is officially over. So your team could be up 21 at the first half. It's totally irrelevant to anything you bet. So like people that complain about that stuff, I would say you're telling on yourself. It's amateur, honestly.

2:50 So for someone like me, yeah. Would it suck to have someone come back on me and me lose a bet? Sure. Vice versa. Like you just said, it happens the other way all the time.

2:58 All the time.

2:59 You really can't complain much. And if you are, you're telling on yourself. You're an amateur better, honestly.

3:04 Well, look, we benefited from it.

3:09 That's what I mean. It's like, yeah, we benefit from it. We also have been burned. You just said that Giants-Washington game, we got burned.

3:15 Yeah, and this weekend we had the Browns. These games, it's almost becoming to the point where you're betting two separate games. There's a first half bet. There's a second half bet. There's a full game bet. We benefited from the Commanders. We benefited from the Browns. We benefited from the Steelers. It doesn't always work that way. I just think it's interesting that there's so much variance in so many swings, regardless of the betting. To me, the fact that no game is ever truly over because so many teams are finding ways to have their teams give up leads or other teams come back, that speaks to the volatility in football, which is just interesting to me. It's got nothing to do with winning or losing.

4:09 I just had people messaging me about it, and I was just like, fuck. watch the full game. Never message me at halftime. Like you talked last night at 49ers game. Don't make a bunch of people message me. Great bet. You're an idiot. You're a sucker. You thought this team was going to be 49ers. I totally get it. They're, they're looking terrible at a halftime, but it's like, I didn't, it wasn't a halftime bet. It's a full game bet.

4:31 And we've talked about this ad nauseum, but the kickoff rules has changed. These, Teams, if you go three and out, a team scores a touchdown, they get the ball back and they score another touchdown. Just like that, 14 points evaporated. So that's my whole pushback. I'm not talking about you specifically.

4:46 I'm just saying like people who go online and be like, man, I've been so unlucky this week. I had all these bets. I was up by double digits and I lost. It's like, what is this, your first time betting football? I mean, this is just– this happens. But, yeah, like if you want to be sick about the Rams and you had the Rams in Survivor Contest, Those ones I understand. If you want to complain about McVay not burning 40 seconds off the clock and giving all that time to the Cardinals, that I get, but losing double-digit bets, I mean, it's just another day at the office, man. It's just, it's brutal.

5:17 Football is a brutal sport to bet. I say it all the time. If you want to make money, go bet college football. There's 162 teams, whatever it is, to pick from. NFL, we have 32 teams, 16 games if we're lucky per week. It's very, very tough to make money betting this sport, so I try not to get too high, too low and stuff, but yeah, like that Cardinals Rams game, it's going to stick me for the rest of the week. Usually games don't, but survivor games like that, that I lose. And it's just such, it's such coaching male practice. Yes. Those stick with me, but yeah, blowing double digit leads, Chad, it's sickening, but you just gotta, gotta roll with it, man. It's just part of the business.

5:53 All right. It's our NFL week seven show. We're going to talk about Chad's choice. Simon says we'll review the entire slate for the $ 25, 000 pro football pick them contest. Sign up, sharpersquare.thevolume.com. Top 10 listeners get paid $ 10, 000 for first. Top 10 listeners get paid $ 10, 000 for first place. Watch the shows, Sharper Square on YouTube. Subscribe and like this video while you're at it. You can also follow us on Insta, TikTok, X. Subscribe to Sharper Square on Apple Pods, et cetera, et cetera. Hey, Simon, before we get into the week seven games, a lot of listeners asking about updated futures bets. Anything from your point of view worth taking?

6:42 Any hedges from the summer? New long shots? I mentioned Kenneth Walker, Offensive Player of the Year the other night. What is on your mind right now, if anything, for futures?

6:59 I'll have more on our authorization. I would have to go through my binder and see all my tickets because I don't, all those bets I don't do online. I bet all in person for future bets like that. So I'd have to go through all my tickets, but yeah, right now I would say my biggest adjustment would be, I made a ton of bets tied to the Eagles and the Seahawks for Superbowl futures. Not looking great, Chad.

7:23 Not good. Yeah. Both might already be dead and, um invested no money into a team like green bay where if parson comes back they might be an absolute juggernaut so maybe that's a team like i might take a position on green bay or something like that in the future but um yeah right now the nfc east or nfc i should say is just wide open in general same with nfc east it still could be dallas eagles could still trade for mac jones to get a quarterback like who knows what these teams are going to do in such a terrible division so yeah right now that's going to be my biggest focal points nfc where AFC, not saying it's going to a plan, right? We have the Browns leading the division. AFC is kind of wonky.

7:59 But it's also your one-third way into the season, and the Mars missed a couple of games. I mean, how could you not be all in on the Chiefs, right? Yeah. I would say futures market, I'm definitely going to make adjustments. We could talk about Thursday. We're sitting here right now. No, I haven't really dived into it too much.

8:16 All right. Thursday night football from– Chicago, 8.15 p.m. Eastern on Amazon Prime. New England Patriots visiting the Chicago Bears. The Bears are currently three-point favorites at home. The line opened at two and a half. It was immediately something that we pegged to play. The line did go up. That was professional money that moved it up. Caleb was on one on Sunday. against the Falcons, no doubt about it.

8:49 And Drake was good enough against the Jets. A.J. Brown, terrible against the Jets. He probably cost the Patriots betters the cover. The problem for the Patriots, they're basically playing all backup linemen. And Will Campbell, if he does play, is playing on one leg. To me, the real difference for the Bears on Sunday, in addition to Caleb, Their defense, mostly, except for a five-minute sort of brain-dead moment, was very good.

9:23 And Kyler Gordon was amazing. The guy played 17 snaps, three sacks, two forced fumbles, 14 tackles, his first game of the year. They were just a different defense with him. I'm on the Bears. I'm assuming you are too. It does scare me a little bit that we're betting against Vrabel as an underdog. Because that used to be a smash spot for us back in the Tennessee Titan days.

9:51 Yeah, all about line value, though, in this one, for sure. Two and a half, it's obviously a Bears play. If you still want to take Bears at three, I get it, but this keeps getting hammered because of all the injuries, and this gets up to three and a half. Yeah, you're right. At that point, you have to take Vrabel with the hook. Even if the Bears blow this team out, Patriots by 20, it's still, like you said, you're getting Vrabel with a hook as a dog. It's a long-term winner.

10:14 It's a position you want to be on. Yeah, game Sunday night, we talked about two and a half to just flag a Bears line. easy to bet that we knew all the injuries on the Patriots side. You know, flip side of this is we've seen Caleb be inconsistent. We just saw him. He's coming off an 80, 80% completion percentage type of game, right? Like there's just, that's not who Caleb is. Even he was shocked to hear that number. It's his highest completion. So, okay. We take away a couple of completions. You know, it's the turnovers.

10:44 We keep talking about that, but you look at the Patriots, they've had turnover issues this year. They've turned the ball over the running backs. I've had fumbling issues. So yeah, this matchup, I feel like it predicates a lot with the bears when I do. And it's really nice. You get to face the Patriots on a short week at home where, you know, obviously we've seen this Patriots team with Vrabel a ton of time prepare. They've been really good defensively this year. So yeah, minus three. If you still want to take bears, I get it. I probably would too, but I'm invested two and a half. I'm going to be having more heavily invested. If this gets a three and a half on Vrabel, not going to lie.

11:17 Like that's where I want to be positional wise. It's just, As much as I like this Bears team, I'm still like, man, there's still some things about this team I just do not trust. And it really starts with that defense. If Caleb goes three and out, it's just terrifying. And we saw that in the second half against Atlanta. They were in this crazy flow. Couldn't be stopped, this Bears team.

11:38 And basically, halftime came and went. They kind of never got into the rhythm the second half. And all of a sudden, it was a close game. And they needed another turnover to kind of save them the end of the game. So, yeah, this is... To me, a big game for the Bears. Like, this is a playoff team. You want to show how good you are. Caleb as well.

11:56 And that game was so impressive by Caleb. It's like, we've seen him play three games this year.

12:03 Yeah.

12:04 Carolina dominant. Vikings in the rain. Can't really hold it against him. This other game against, you know, you can say what you want about that game against Atlanta. Atlanta's been pretty good this year overall. And he beat the hell out of them that first half. So, Yeah, I'm really excited to see what Caleb does in this game because it's a true test against a really good defense.

12:22 I agree with everything you said. There's going to be a regression from Caleb. We know. I'm most curious about the defense. If Kyler Gordon, who the Bears are always annoyed with because they gave him a big deal and he's always injured and can't stay on the field, if he actually can be on the field for a significant amount of snaps on Thursday night, what will that do to the rest of the defense? Because despite not being the biggest guy in the world, He gets great leverage and he can play from multiple spots on the field.

12:50 Like he was a blitzing machine the other night, especially against a depleted Patriots line. What will that mean? So that's, as a fan, what I'm most excited to pick up on. But yes, I got the Bears at two and a half. Pittsburgh at New Orleans. This one's in Paris, despite the riots. They're playing the game. Big move. Went from Steelers minus two and a half. to Steelers minus three and a half.

13:19 Seems like the wise guys are on the Steeler side more than anything, because most of the tickets, at least from what I've seen, are coming in on the Saints. I feel like it's similar to the Bears-Patriots game. Whatever value there was, was probably on the Steelers at two and a half, maybe at three. At three and a half, I think you start to lose sort of, you're all of a sudden in this day and age of getting harder and harder to win by margin. Four points starts to feel like margin. If you're going to be betting on the Steelers at three and a half, which I'm not sure that's a prudent thing to do right now.

13:58 Yeah. We had the weird buck of the trend where basically you just blindly bet these favorites international games.

14:04 Yeah.

14:04 Done well coming to the year. It's gone the other way. Dallas covered in Brazil. Jaguars didn't cover any games, right? They didn't cover against the Eagles, didn't cover against Houston. Um, that's something I am noticing here where it's like what used to be something I hated, which was just everyone blindly bet. The favorites has not been hitting this year.

14:22 And how can you not look at this line is inflated. Like the Steelers. Yes. They're the better team. They played better this year, but you've seen this saints team. And what I talked about last week, like Chuck needed to use his legs. He finally did. And it looked way better. I mean, it looked way better at him running with running the ball. Cause it's like, dude, you're not getting QB spot. You have these open lanes, take the lane, stop trying to always make the throw. And, it paid out for the Saints. They were killing that Giants team until the second half where they almost had another insane comeback because they just couldn't get, you know, back into it after putting backups into the game, which, you know,

14:56 I get why he was doing to kill him more because they have this international game here, right? And it's, he's trying to arrest guys where he can. Pittsburgh, normally, like we talked about, like, I want to fade them. I've rode them, I bet on them heavily for the last two weeks. I knew this line would eventually catch up to them, right? The public would just start coming enamored with the Steelers team and At this point, how can you say they're not? This is crazy for this to be 3.5-3. Maybe I could talk myself into the Steelers, but it's another one where the books know what they're doing.

15:24 They're getting guys like me to come in on the Saints once they give us the hook. This is an interesting game where you could bet this one and it could change venues and the bet cancels out because there's so much unrest right now in Paris. We'll see what the NFL does. I don't know if they want to go somewhere that's mad because of American influence on their country and their government and The books are kind of taking a hedge here a little bit, moving this to 3.5 because they are getting Saints money. Like Chad said, this is a lot of really respected professional money betting the Steelers team. It's not like it's all the public, everyone hammering the Steelers team. It's pretty split. So it's

15:59 another interesting line to see what the public does with this one. I'll throw a little on the Saints plus 3.5, but not a game I'm too confident in betting.

16:07 Me neither. This next game, however, there's always a game every week when I start doing– the research sort of Sunday night, all day into Monday, that surprises me. And this one surprised me. The New York Giants visiting the Houston Texans. Texans are nine and a half point favorites. Started at nine, got that up to nine and a half, even 10 in some spots. I'm pretty sure that was professional money, betting the Texans that early in the week.

16:40 But are we sure the Texans defense, is good. They give up a lot of points every week. They miss a lot of tackles. They have a lot of blown coverages. So then I looked at the stats. The defenses are basically even when it comes to EPA per play, sort of the advanced metrics. Giants are much better in EPA per pass. It doesn't matter what either of them do, EPA per run, because neither team can run the ball.

17:14 The Giants don't know who their running back is. The Texans are one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL. They do not blow teams out, the Texans. Even that win against the Titans was a slow roll to 26-3. Their running game is terrible. They're terrible in the red zone. And we know the Giants, they can be down by double digits. They can be up like We know that they're going to sling it in the fourth quarter. Why are we not taking the Giants seriously here? Why is the professional money coming in on the Texans? Per Evan Abrams, six-plus-point favorites, 8-18-3 this year against the spread. Worst since 2000.

18:02 Why are. I kind of love the Giants here.

18:15 Yeah, and that's what the books want you to do. Because why else would they hang a number this large? Everything you just said is very true. Why is this number this big, right? The books, I feel like, are telling themselves a little bit here with their position because this is going to be the most public dog, I think, this week, the Giants. Especially if it gets back to 10.

18:34 The general public will see that and just absolutely hammer it. And I want to just give a little grace to this Texans defense, right? A defense that we had high expectations for, and we've been beating them up. But if you go through it, okay, they gave up 36 to Buffalo in week one. Yes, brutal. Had a pick, dropped it.

18:52 So maybe that shouldn't even be considered giving up over 30, but they did. That happened. Dallas, they gave up 34. I mean, that's a bad look. Jacksonville, they gave up 31. Can we agree, though, those are three top ten offenses? I know, obviously, Dallas hasn't looked the last two weeks, but, I mean, those are some really good offenses. The Bengals, they only gave up 20. Colts, they gave up 19. Tennessee, they gave up three. So they've had moments where the defense has been good, but you're right. It's not what we expected this year. We thought they'd be so much more dominant, and that's what the sportsbooks are saying right here.

19:26 They're saying... This defense is what they're going to do, what they did at Tennessee, which is that's that's the position they're taking here. Like to me, I'm right there with you. My model had this at seven and a half. So I'm like, oh, my God, Giants free money this week. Books are way off. But like you said, really smart professional money came in, hit it up to 10. I'm more often not going to ride with the books and the sharp money. It's just they they. clearly have a position here that this defense is going to step up and shut down this Giants team that, you know, people actually think J.J. McCarthy is this incredible quarterback because he came in the second half, right, threw for 400 yards.

20:00 And people are like, see, everyone was so wrong about him. It's like. This is the exact game they started J.J. McCarthy. He throws three picks in the first half. Yes, 100%. And then they have to go back to Jameis Winston in the second half.

20:10 And that's when Jameis lights it up. And then you get the first half of Jameis against the Saints, and you get the second half of Jameis against the Texans, and you're screwed. This game just feels a little bit like last week we had this conversation about the Cardinals. We love the Cardinals. And then we got sort of mind-played.

20:34 the professionals played with our minds and moved us into the Rams. And I just wonder, like, what are the professionals doing here? I know why they're betting the Texans. I know it's the professionals that move the Texans. But I don't know that they're right here. It just feels like someone's fucking with us, Simon.

20:54 Like I said, they might not be, but the only, like, the games they've lost and the games they've gotten a ton of points in, have been against really good quarterbacks and offenses. The Giants, none of us view them that. We view them as fool's gold. It's just, we have no idea what they're going to be week to week, this Giants team. That's the honest truth. That's why, like, people are killing me about taking the States. Like, you just love to fade this Giants team. It's like, listen, you're asking Jameis, you're asking Lightning to strike twice. That's what you were looking for with Jameis. It's like, you're betting on Jameis to have back-to-back insane games. And it's just not possible. And He kept doing it. He kept

21:30 having these quarters or whatever, having these incredible games. And you saw last week, that first half, he couldn't do anything against the Saints. And that's my policy. Are we really going to invest heavily into J.J. McCarthy or Jameis Winston against what we view as one of the better defenses in a get-right spot? Tennessee, they're not a good team.

21:48 They beat the Colts because the Colts beat themselves. We know that. The Texans have been really good, I shouldn't say this year, but in general, where C.J. has played really well, It has been the defense that's let them down disappointed. And that's the hesitation here. I think we both just don't trust their defense. And I think the pros who are betting this, they do. They're just like, this is the exact spot you back the Texas defense, just like we did against Tennessee. So that's my point.

22:11 It's no different when you really break it down and look at it that way. But I think we're both the same feeling. It's just like, we know what's going to happen to us. We know this one's going to burn us if we don't win 30-3 or something like that. So, yeah, tough, tough read on this one. But I'm probably going to be betting Texas, especially– We'll see what the phone calls say, but I just have a good feeling a lot of pros are going to be all over this Texan squad.

22:32 Very interesting. Also, Texans coming off an international game, so they might be a little sleepier. Simon, Tampa Bay is visiting the resurgent, the brilliant, the amazing Carolina Panthers. The number is three and a half. Do you have something you'd like to say?

22:56 Simon Says, give me the Bucs plus three and a half at Polymarket.

22:59 This is Simon Says presented by Polymarket, the Tampa Bay Bucs trading at three and a half at 47% at Polymarket right now. It's moved up a tick since we first identified it Sunday night from three to three and a half. If you like the Bucs, that's good. Panthers offense is remarkably good. And very well balanced top 10 and rushing across EPA and success rate and rush yards over expectation top 10 and passing yards for play top 10 overall and all the advanced stats. I think we can agree the bucks are not a very good team.

23:43 So we're asking ourselves about like, do we play the number? Do we think there is value division dogs this year, 20 and eight against the spread. Is there a regression coming? Is there a new paradigm? You're on the bucks. Three and a half at Polymarket, trading at 47%. We both liked him on Sunday night, but I can't figure out why we like him.

24:09 I mean, you're right. Regression could be coming on that number. I didn't know it was like that this season. That's pretty impressive. Division dogs have done great, but my whole view is just the history of these two teams and what they've done divisionally. I mean, even when Baker has been dying on the field he's got no strength in his arms or his legs he would still always keep bucks in these close games when you've seen now their offense with a quarterback that can move you know can't push the ball downfield and yeah he's up and down we knew he was going to be that way he's a rookie quarterback could we easily get burned here of course this carolina team's way more established they're better team

24:43 but just going through these two teams divisional matchups I mean, even last year, you think about it, the Bucs beat them 16-14 the last week of the year, even though they didn't make the playoffs. The Carolinas still made the playoffs anyway. The game before that, Carolina beat them 23-20. Another very close, three-point, less decided type of game. That's what I'm expecting here. It's just two teams that know each other. And despite all the injuries to the Bucs, the Panthers have their own injuries. They have their own injuries to their offensive line. They have their own injuries to key positions on defense. And I've just seen this Bucs team be– you know, gritty. They just don't give up.

25:18 They're a tough team. Even last week, you know, that's a brutal loss. They kind of let that one get away, but you expect them to bounce back, right? With Todd Bowles and a veteran team like that, you expect them to bounce back. So this is really just about the line. Like you said, if this was still three, maybe I wouldn't be so enamored with it, but it's now that it's up to three and a half, you know, it's going to be a tough divisional game. I just got to take the points there. These two teams just always play so close. So yeah, could this Carolina team blow them out? Are they really cooking? Are they going to have back-to-back weeks of blowing teams out? It's a possibility, but I just view this as too many points, too

25:52 much respect. And on the flip side, the Bucs team, they let one get away last week. That was their win. They blew it. Now the public's overreacting because everyone's mad. That was another reason I really liked Pittsburgh last week because I knew a ton of pros and general public, I should say, that were just all over the Bucs team where they thought it was an easy bet, easy money.

26:10 It looked that way through the first half, and then it just came back around where This Bucs team, as good as they are, they are inconsistent offensively. Matchup-wise, I don't know if I'd take the over here, but I would definitely take the points and take the Bucs.

26:24 Public is all over the Panthers. The public is coming around to our feeling that the Panthers are a legit team, but we've never done well betting on the Panthers' favorites. That's always been a discrepancy for us. I need to tell you about this new Prediction Market called Polymarket the best new way to trade in sports in the past.

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27:28 SHARP when you sign up. That's SHARP to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. San Francisco is visiting the Atlanta Falcons. Falcons are three and a half point home underdogs. They just got destroyed at home by Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears. You know what, Simon? Atlanta Falcons plus three and a half. That is going to be Chad's choice. Slight edge trend wise to the Falcons.

28:04 Like the Niners are always going to be inflated at this point. Fading teams that have been covering by margin, forget about what happened with the Commanders last night, although that's a big reason why. Fading teams that have been covering by margin covers at a 55% rate the past 20 years. Will Mike Evans play? We don't know. But they were a decidedly different team after he went out last night. And he was the only reason they were moving the ball down the field in sort of high leverage spots. against the commander.

28:39 So I'm.

28:41 Going to go back to the well with the Atlanta Falcons. We were off him last week. We'll get back on him this week.

28:47 Totally fair. Yeah. You're right about the Mike Evans stuff. And at some point, what can Brock Brady do? He's down to these guys or his fourth and fifth receivers, right? I mean, tons of injuries to the wide receiving core of that team. And it sounds, it sounds like a dodge a bullet. It sounds like it's not an Achilles tear.

29:02 It was just Achilles soreness. I believe she had said so. Yep. possibility he comes back and maybe that does move the line who knows but um right now the pro money is hammering this falcon side and it's down to three at a lot of shops so uh my my only hesitation here would be penix who knows how he's affected by the ribs we don't know if they're broken if they're cracked what the deal is but you can watch that game last we can say it affected him like that first half he couldn't do a thing until the second half where you guys basically played prevent defense against him.

29:33 That's when he started tearing you guys up, which, you know, we've seen Penix where he's got time and open guys. Yes, he can do work, but he looks so uncomfortable moving in the pocket last week. Just any type of pressure the Bears were getting, especially in the first half, he did not want to take a hit. You could just tell.

29:47 He was just like, I am not taking hits right now on this side of my body. So I like the idea of the bounce back. We've just– You know, we've seen this Niners team. It's tough to say because they're obviously 6-0. And like I said last week, they're due for a loss. It's just the way the league is. Like, can they go perfect? Yeah, they're going to need so much luck, though. And you saw against the Washington. They were begging to give that game away. Like, they were absolutely begging for it. Couldn't pick up a first down to close the game out, which is just not characteristic of that 49ers team where it's just, oh, Shane has called his three best plays to get a first down to end this game. He couldn't do it because they

30:26 don't have the weapons. Like you take away Mike Evans. Now he's having to pass the Matt Christian McCaffrey more than he wants to have the backfield. It's just, it's all, it's all predicated on Mike Evans, in my opinion here. So he's out and we're still getting three and a half. Oh my God. Is this a great, great spot to be on the Niners? If he comes back, I think the numbers warranted. I think that is the 49ers deserve to be a three and a half point favorite on the road here, just because they've been that good offensively and defensively. I mean, this is kind of a revenge game, right? So, Yeah, it's a tough one to handicap. I'm with you, though.

30:57 It's just the value to me feels like it's all on the Falcon side. And offensively, I think they'll be able to move the ball against the 49ers team. So bounce back spot at home. You're right. It all points to this Falcons team. And I'm interested what the public does with this one with the 49ers, just because, you know, they won. And once again, they're still 6-0. I know people didn't cover on them, but they've just been an absolute machine this year on the flip side of the Falcons.

31:20 They looked so bad last week. I know they got a little bit in the second half, but. I just think coming to that game, people were so high on the Falcons. Like you said, there was so much professional money on the Falcons last week, and they were dead in that first half being down 21-7. So, yeah, another interesting line this week for sure.

31:39 Massive pros, Joe's game. About 70% of the bets on the Niners right now, and I'm looking at 60% of the money on the Falcons. So it will move to three. If it is confirmed that Evans is playing, Even then, he was confirmed this past week. And one of the reasons we liked the commanders this past week was because we didn't know about Mike Evans' health situation. And I do think, given the ribs, given the Achilles, he's not practicing during the weeks. You don't know if he's going to be able to finish a game. We saw it last night. So I'm choosing. I've chosen. I'm there. Atlanta Falcons plus three and a half. Oh, Simon. Our beloved Cleveland Browns. visiting the Tennessee Titans. The Titans are one

32:27 and a half point home underdogs. It moved down from two. So there was some sharp money coming in on Tennessee. Look, I know the Titans won that game, but I think more people, the public sentiment is going to be on the Browns who are in first place and they came back from double digits and people are excited and Some people are making Deshaun Watson their heroes of the week, and that's totally fine. But I don't want to bet on Tennessee here. I got no desire, and I can't bet on Cleveland. So can we just not do it?

33:05 Can we just not have to have a conversation about this game?

33:09 Yeah, you can skip it personally. I have to bet Tennessee, unfortunately. It's no different than last week when I talked about taking the Saints. You're buying in on teams that, People are super low on still. Doesn't matter if they won or covered. On the flip side, everyone's in love with this Browns story. Yeah. They're another team that people weren't really on last week. A lot of Ravens money despite Lamar being out. And now I feel like these people are trying to play catch up, trying to back this Browns team. The books are telling themselves once again where it's like, why is this not Browns minus three? They've been good enough, respected enough to be that this year against this Tennessee team. On the flip side of that,

33:48 we talked about the numbers. I think they had like 180 yards of total offense and still somehow won that game against the Colts who had like over 300 yards of offense. They just, they live and die by the turnovers. That's what Daniel Jones was giving them. I'm with you or I'm always so wrong with Tennessee. Like my view of this one is I'm just, I'm trying to listen to the smart people smarter than me who tried to save my ass last week. I'm talking me out of taking the Colts and my survivor pools and didn't matter.

34:13 I still got caught taking the Rams. Anyway, they're same group. Same guys, they're back on Tennessee once again. They're really happy to get Tennessee plus two and a half, and they just think Tennessee should be favorite. They're a better team than the Browns. When they say this stuff, I can't rub my head around it. But it's Cam Ward.

34:30 Yeah.

34:31 How do you have faith in Cam Ward? And that's my tough part. So you're right. I think we know what we're supposed to do here. Maybe I'll grow a sack come Sunday and make us better. But as we say right now, I'm right there with you where it's like, I'm happy to avoid this game.

34:43 Yeah, come on. How many times have you told me someone needs to be the grown-up in the room when it comes to the Tennessee Titans? People can't be saying that the Titans are better than the Browns. What they can be saying is that maybe there's a little bit of value on the Browns. The flip side is we know the public is going to continue to hammer the Browns, especially as the game gets closer. It's already 75% of the tickets coming in on the Browns. Maybe this goes back up. Maybe there's such a deluge that it goes back up to two, two and a half. Or the flip side. And so then you take the Titans then.

35:18 The flip side is, if the number stays where it is, do you just say screw it and bet the Titans on the money line?

35:26 Sure. But this number, I'd be shocked about budgets. We know the deal. $ 10, 000 from a sharp group is worth more than a million dollars in public money. Yes.

35:34 Totally true.

35:35 Yeah. For this number to go back up, you would need a very smart group to get a position just because so much smart money is taking a position on Tennessee. And as much as you want to mock them, I had guys, pro groups, sending me the clip of me and you laughing at them, saying, who the hell is betting Tennessee against the Colts this week? Why is this number moving? So that's why I'm trying to be the adult in the room, Chad, where it's just like I'm not trying to look like an idiot with an egg in our face, once again, mocking this Tennessee team where we know this is a Tennessee line. That's what the books are. They're taking a position. Usually we take a position with them and it's been very profitable for us

36:06 to take that position.

36:08 Brother, we get 16 opportunities every single Tuesday to get egg on our face. I don't think this will be the only one. Cincinnati at Baltimore. Baltimore is now a two and a half point favorite. Pretty big line move from this. I think the books opened a mistake on Sunday night. We talked about it when it was three and a half. Immediately got that down to three while we were on the air. talking about that this seemed like an odd hook to offer for the Bengals. Now it's a two and a half at most shops. If Lamar is back, is he fully back? Will he be hesitant to run? Will he be rusty? Will he be rested?

36:51 I guess the real question is why were the Ravens even graded as three and a half point favorites? They haven't really proven themselves to be a notch above the Bengals. or anyone else in the AFC North.

37:07 That's fair, but the Bengals also have been inconsistent this year as well. I think maybe that's why they've hung this number, and you just think divisionally, if it is Lamar, you can't put this at a pick if it's Lamar. You have to give Lamar that respect. He's earned that respect where he does play. Coming off an injury, yes.

37:24 I think they're being super cautious with him. That's why he missed last week, but we never know with Lamar. That's the toughest part where it's like, we think their teams are just being cautious when all of a sudden he's out for eight weeks. And we've had that happen in the past where they don't put them on the IR, but he just does not play the rest of the year.

37:39 And it's just something that never gets better because, you know, pulled muscle hamstrings are just really a tricky injury, especially for a guy like him. So this is another number I think we handicapped, right? We both couldn't understand Sunday night why this was plus three. And it's nice to see the pros coming in with us because it's just, I agree. The Bengals, you know, not the best team this year, but at least they're healthy. They've been consistent, too.

38:07 You want to say, like, you know, as bad as they've been, they went and beat Miami. They should have covered it. Obviously, they had a bad backdoor. They could have beat Jacksonville, and that fell on Joe Burrow. They could have beat Pittsburgh. That fell on Joe Burrow. So maybe it's a Joe Burrow problem. Maybe that's what we're overlooking here, where we're giving too much faith into Joe, where this season– They beat the Bucs. They beat Houston, where Houston put up six points against Cincinnati's defense. And they beat Miami. So it's really tough, too, to handicap a Cincinnati team where it's like, are they for real?

38:40 Are they a good team? Or is this still an inconsistent offense with a defense that's still getting better than where they play together? But they have a lot of new guys there. So I get why they hung the number they did. But I totally agree that the value was easily on the Bengals. Like, if you can still get the plus three, That's where I want to bet. Now, we'll wait. Not going to bet anymore in this game.

39:02 If Lamar comes back, maybe I can talk myself into taking a position on the Ravens here. But I think we both want to be in the Bengals. That's going to be hard for me to do, honestly.

39:10 Yeah, totally. I was thinking about this game yesterday. You know, we're both in the Northeast. And the last two weeks of October for me are 100% my favorite time of year. It keeps me in the Northeast because the fall colors are so... Vibrant and beautiful. It's like I'm living in a kaleidoscope. I just love it. All I do is take the pictures and then send them around to my kids and say, head on a swivel, check out the beauty, be alive. While I was doing this walk, looking at the beautiful colors here in central Connecticut, I thought to myself, how often have we been in this position with Joe Burrow and he throws that stupid pick six or just an interception driving into opponent's territory that kills us in

40:06 games like this? Because that's what I thought about. I'm like, I love the bangles at three. I love the bangles at three and a half. But dude, this guy kills us all the time. He is the problem.

40:19 He kills us, but yeah, we're in totally different worlds right now. I literally, I truthfully have basically lived in a hole. I've gone out to leave my house and bed at Sportsbooks. I've been in a hole for two weeks just because Throwback, Halo 3, a game you probably never played in your life.

40:35 No way.

40:36 Has come back from the dead. These modders have basically turned this game I used to play into 100 versus 100 type of game. And my God, have I been playing. I mean, minimum of 13 to 14 hours a day of Halo 3. And anyone that knows that game, I'm a gamer, but not the biggest gamer. I was a brigadier general in this game back in the day. I get after it, Chad. I put in work on that game.

41:00 So I'm not going to lie to you. I was worried it was going to affect my job. We've had back-to-back two winning weeks since I picked up this game. Don't put it down. Now Modern Warfare comes out today. So I am full-on nerd mode, just gaming my ass off. And basically... Grand Theft Auto 6 comes out in less than a month. I may never leave my home ever again.

41:21 Like if I can make this work at Polymark and I don't have to shop around all these different shops, my God, I have no reason to leave my place right now. It's just gaming nirvana. But I will leave to watch the leaves change. Like Chad says, I need to get out. But it hasn't really happened here yet in South Jersey. It's still a little too hot, but it should start happening this week.

41:39 Simon, Matt Mitchell was also a huge fan of the changing of the leaves. I'm going to send you both all the pictures I took yesterday. Yesterday, I was walking around the corner with my dog onto my block and I had my camera out. I was taking a picture of a tree and my wife drove by. She was leaving the house. She goes, are you taking pictures of trees?

42:01 I'm like, I am taking pictures of trees. I'm going to send this to you in about five minutes. I'll send it to you. Send you all the pictures I took. Do not stop playing these games, Simon, because clearly whatever you're doing is working. We got to go with that. Miami at the New York Jets. Look, Jets are four and a half point favorites. The number of trends, brother, that back playing the Dolphins in this spot is truly concerning.

42:27 I'm not going to list them all, but basically every system you can think of says you got to back the Dolphins in this spot. Similar to the Titans conversation. Are we adults who make the right play? Are we adults who don't make this play?

42:46 No, you're right. It's a no-brainer. You have to bet it. We both hate it, but we know what we're supposed to do here. It's inflated. It's another line that's inflated. The Jets are a better team. They should be minus three. You're getting four and a half. It's a key number. It's a good number. You have to bet Miami. I know why people are hesitant about it, and we've joked about it. We're Miami players. they're so boom and bust offensively.

43:10 They either drive the field, get these crazy long touchdowns or the running back breaks one off because of touchdown or they go three and out for eight straight drives. There's just no in between with this Miami offense. They're just, they're putrid. We get it. But this Jets team, if you really dive into their numbers, they're not that much better offensively compared to last year with Justin Fields. And I know they've won games this year. It really is about matchups and, you know, their defense has just been better this year, this Jets team. So, um it's interesting that the public has taken such a large position on the jets and on the flip side some pro mates come in the jets like this number at a couple

43:46 shops has gone up to five so can we be patient like throw i'll throw a little on miami here but is there a world where this is the biggest bet and the biggest need of the shops this weekend and this gets up to six because there's just no money back in this miami team yeah it's a possibility but I would honestly be shocked. It just feels like another pro show game where the pros will come in heavy on Miami. This gets bet down to four and a half, four, down to three and a half, potentially by kickoff. So I hate it. As soon as I saw this game, I was like, my God, this is one of these games me and Chad are going to have to have one of our five. And we know for a fact it's going to burn us. But we're

44:22 playing the number, playing the situation. And you expect Miami off a bye week, facing a team off a road game, a tough game against the Patriots. This should be much fresher. This should be such an advantage to the Miami team in so many ways. So, yeah, this is definitely an interesting line, the one that jumped out right away, Chad.

44:40 I'm happy you're saying we have to bet it because I agree with you. I was just hoping we could maybe avoid it, but it doesn't feel like it's going to go that way this week.

44:48 It is trending to be very much a pros-Joes game. You can see a little bit of discrepancy. Majority of tickets, close to 60% on the Jets, but the money is– edging closer to being evenly split. So that tells you the wise guys, they are coming in on the Dolphins. Indy at Minnesota. Interesting number. Minnesota is a six and a half point favorite. It's moved up. It started at six.

45:15 It went to five and a half. It got back up to six and a half this morning. It will not get any lower for the Colts, right? You lose to the winless Tennessee Titans who have been a laughingstock. you fire your GM, which is a little bit of a coward move, like just clean house at this point. And doesn't that say, take the Colts now, like at plus six and a half, the flip side is, especially when you're going against a team like the Vikings, undefeated, dominating against the spread, similar to our game with the Commanders and the Niners, like, you kind of feel like the edge here from a number perspective is on the Colts.

46:01 Yeah. Another game where I thought it'd be all pros all over this Colts team, but you're right. There's some really smart money on Minnesota. This game went from five and a half up to six and a half. I get the argument, right? It's Kyler Murray after a bi-week should be more comfortable in the, in their offense on the flip side, Daniel Jones. Now he's going to get into one of the best defenses in football. That all they do is blitz. This is like, Worst case scenario, Daniel Jones, if you go back last year on that win streak they had, he was 75% completion percentage against the Blitz when they had that insane run, right? When they were 8-1, he was incredible. You've seen since then, he is horrible against the Blitz. And it goes right

46:41 to what we've talked about, right? The Achilles, his movement in the pocket, it's all different. I mean, even in that game last week, he was trying to run outside the pocket. And he had one run where he looked all right, but he still looks very slow and sluggish. It's bad. It's bad here where I get why they're firing the GM. And like you said, they just need a clean cut, clear house, trade Jonathan Taylor, trade the Forrest Buckner, like move all these assets you have. You don't have a first round pick. You're a dumb GM traded to two first round picks for sauce Gardner. And you have one of the worst secondaries in all football.

47:13 So yeah, you rarely, you will find a team that keeps a GM that hasn't won their division in 10 years.

47:20 I mean, it's just two playoffs appearances.

47:23 Yeah, like I've just been bashing this Colts team. I remember Colts fans would keep stepping in and be like, you're too hard on Jim Murray today and you're too hard on his daughters. And it's just like everyone outside your fan base looks at your front office as a complete joke. Your ownership as a complete joke. Like it's just, that's what people need to come to realization of. Like, am I happy that your owners are the sideline wanting to get better, taking notes and trying to get better?

47:47 I guess, but I still think it's a weird look where why do no other owners do that, right? Like, it's just the best owners in football are the ones you don't really know. The ones who aren't talked about aren't on the sideline. I mean, even that Atlanta Falcons owner who was a freaking idiot, used to always come on their sideline in close games. He is so scarred from that 28-3 loss. He's never touched the Atlanta Falcons sideline ever since. It's like these people need to learn, and she needs to learn, where they're going to fire Shane Stike, and I'm an Eagles fan. I'm praying to God we get rid of Nick Sierrano and we hire Shane Stike. He was amazing. Yeah. And he was great for the Eagles. And I talked to people in the organization.

48:27 They still love him. They still talk to him. So could that be another mistake? Dinnership makes getting rid of a good coach where it's like, is this his fault? Has he made bad decisions? Maybe you've never given him a quarterback. Like it's just it's impossible in this league to win without ever having a quarterback. So getting back to this game. It's another game where I wanted to be on the Colts, and the more I look at it, the more I read and look at the data, it's like this actually might be a Minnesota spot. This is such a bad, bad matchup defensively for the Colts. If Jonathan Taylor can run for 150, yeah, this is a great game for the Colts. That's the only way this works out for them. If you're asking Daniel Jones to

49:04 drop back 35 times to throw to Keenan Allen, you're done. You are totally done. If Tyler Warren's not in this game, you don't have your best tight end in this game, I mean, we talked about it last week. That was another thing that scared me totally off of the Colts. Yeah, it was a big deal. You saw that. Total difference to their offense. So, yeah, I really thought I'd be all over this Colts team. The more I look into it, it's like, man, maybe I need to skip to 7-7.5 before I take a position on this Colts team. Because, unfortunately, I did better at plus 6, and I was wrong.

49:32 The pros are all over Minnesota. So, another game I'm going to wait and see what the line does here. Maybe I'm overlooking this Minnesota team too much.

49:40 Well, look, I think the big difference here is last week, Kyler Murray finally looked comfortable before they went into their bye. So when they come out of that, is that, okay, Kyler Murray is getting into his second, third, fourth game of the season and finally getting some of that KOC magic. I think that to me is what's holding me up from going all in on the Colts is, look, it's always about catching the falling knife. You want to get ahead of the wave. And are we getting ahead of the wave on the Vikings all of a sudden becoming a dominant team because Kyler Murray and KOC have a little bit of momentum behind them?

50:19 Interesting.

50:20 Interesting.

50:20 I don't know if you remember. It was one of my favorite bets we ever had on the show ever. We had the Colts plus three and a half. and I think they were up like 36 to 10 or 36 to 14. I don't know if you're against the Vikings. Yeah. And the Vikings came all the way back and won 39 to 36. We still covered, but it's like, I just, when I think of these types of games, those things pop in my head, like these old matchups for these two teams. And yeah, not saying the Vikings have always owned them. I think the most recent time they played was 24. I think they won like 21 to 13 or something like that. So it's like, those things don't matter because it's different teams, obviously, but, Brian Flores has

51:00 always been coaching this defense since then. So him only getting up 13 points in the Colts the last time he played, that doesn't matter to me. It just shows he's played well Flores' defense against Steichen's offense. So that's just another piece to this puzzle.

51:14 It's amazing, Simon. You'll see this one day. A lot of our listeners can understand this. What your kids remember about certain places, times, and moments– My son and I, who's at Maryland now, he's a sophomore, we went to Dick's Sporting Goods over the summer to get something. And he said to me, hey, I think the last time we were in this parking lot, do you know what happened?

51:35 I go, I know exactly what happened. The Colts blew a massive lead to the Minnesota Vikings and Kirk Cousins came back and won that game against Matt Ryan. He goes, that's exactly what happened. We were listening to that game on the radio and we didn't want to leave the car. until we knew what happened in that game. So you remember it. I remember it. My son remembers it. It was unforgettable. You know what's kind of forgettable? Denver, the Broncos offense, they are going on the road to play the Arizona Cardinals. The line is four and a half.

52:14 I don't get this line, to be honest. I need some guidance here. Is this a game where they're projecting the Broncos offense to get healthy? Like was the car's defensive dominant against the Rams, just an anomaly, not a trend. I'm seeing professional money come in on the Broncos and I don't really get it.

52:35 Yeah. I think what you said is true about the defense, right? Broncos wise, you'd think this would be a nice guy, right spot, but I'm right there with you. You just, could we get burned by Bo Nick? Sure. But everything, all the underlying numbers, everything you see, he is not the same quarterback. He was first two seasons. And, He looks like he's lost a step. He has zero confidence pushing the ball downfield. He's playing to not lose the game rather than try to win the game. And why would anything change in this matchup? I feel like it's the same thing we saw last week. A coach will be in his ear. It's like, hey, just don't lose this game for us, Bo. Just play safe where Cardinals, they let it rip and they're coming off a game

53:16 where they didn't score a touchdown. So as great as a win that is, I don't know how they're going to treat that in practice where it's like, We got away with one against the Rams, if anything. It's not so much they dominated and won that game. So, yeah, very tricky line where we're both on the same page where it's automatically you want to just bet the Cardinals, especially at plus four and a half. That's where I guess I'll put my early money, but it's a game I don't have a good read on because I don't get the line at all. I don't know who has faith right now back in this Denver team and Bo Nix.

53:46 It's just offensive. They look so lost and defensive. They have so many injuries where it's just, Yeah. Are they the better team on paper in every way? Of course. Like we know how much better this Denver's team is, but as they're playing right now, I don't think Cardinals are four and a half points worse than Denver. I don't even know if they're three and a half points.

54:04 Like to me, this should have been a three.

54:06 So yeah, that's what I don't get.

54:08 Yeah. I'm looking, I'm looking forward to talking to guys, especially different shops and bookmakers. It's like, why, why are you hanging this line? Because you know, they're going to still get Denver money. Like it's just not going to be all Cardinals money. I think a lot of people, You know, pros were on the Cardinals last week. That wasn't really public settlement. So, yeah, another line I don't know really much to do with as we sit here on Tuesday. I'm confused by it, honestly.

54:31 Green Bay at Detroit. Detroit's a three-point favorite. Packers are a huge, huge public dog 48 hours into the week, which is interesting to me because I think the line is trending towards three and a half. Micah Parsons, not practicing, not going to be playing this game. Josh Jacobs may play. Lions may get safety Brian Branch back. They could get starting center Cade May back. The biggest weaknesses for this team heading into their bye week, the Lions, has been their defensive backfield and their offensive line. The two QBs in this game are second and third in the league in most passing yards. And I kind of keep track of Jordan Love just because I bet him a 22-1 to lead the league in passing yardage because he's become

55:22 the analytics community's favorite quarterback. I mentioned division dogs are 20-8 against the spread. I think it's the wise guys moving this number.

55:32 Yeah, you're right. I know a lot of really smart guys that immediately went on the lines, but it's another game where maybe it's just because I mean so much crow from being so down on Green Bay's defense, but I couldn't believe the game plan Jonathan Gannon put together in that game. I mean, yeah, they had luck, right?

55:48 CeeDee Lamb slipped and Dak threw a terrible pick, but Dak looked uncomfortable that whole game, and Schottenheimer looked totally outclassed. I know Coward's been calling for his job for weeks now. I think Coward's right, where it's just like, you've spent all this money on this team and the Cowboys. You've traded all these picks away. You went cheap on the head coach. It does not make sense. And Green Bay here, I look at this team offensively, I feel like they could have won by so much more against Dallas. They had so many bad drops. Golden had bad drops. Watson had some bad drops. I mean, our question is the offensive line. Can the Lions take advantage of that? Do the Lions have a defensive front to take advantage of

56:32 this Packers, you know, struggling offensive line? In some ways they do. That's the only thing they really have is Hutchinson up front. So that is another thing you're going to exploit, but– Even before this game, I went back and watched their last year's matchups to see. Because to me, not enough has been made about the Ben Johnson move.

56:51 And last year, they were all right, Detroit, against this Green Bay team. I think they had one game they put up 24, another game they put up 13. Now, they lost both those games outright. Green Bay swept them last year. We know Detroit a year from hell. But I just look at this matchup where if it's three and a half, how do you not take Green Bay?

57:10 That's my problem with this one here, where Yeah, two and a half, three. Yeah, you can talk me into taking the Lions here coming off a bye week. Good matchup for them. Obviously, we've just talked about that offensively and defensively. There's some things you can exploit on Green Bay. But when I look at this Green Bay team, if you're giving me three and a half with Jordan Love, who's playing just like Brock Purdy at MVP level right now, it's hard to pass on that number. So we're split on this right now, brother. I want to be on Green Bay. I'll be patient and wait to see Cause right now it's like two shops have gone to three and a half. And that's like Chad saying the pros are backing them with it. So maybe I'll get some

57:46 calls about it. Maybe I'm missing this one, but right now, yeah, I'm, I'm fully drinking this green Bay cool. Cause last week that was like, we always talk about trap games. That was kind of a trap game where it's like, okay, green Bay is legit team, a, a, a playoff team. They win that game. I, in my mind, I was like, this is not a playoff team green Bay. They just, they're not good defensively. My God, was I wrong? They were so great defensive in that game. And, But offensively, they're not missing a beat right now. Even that game, which was a down game, they still put up whatever it was, 23 points. So, yeah, tough, tough game here to handicap where it's like I want to be on Green Bay, but I get what Chad's doing here. It's

58:24 like the Lions feel like they're sharp side. Maybe I'm overreacting too much to a primetime game.

58:29 Well, we'll get some feedback on it. There's no doubt about it. Like this is a game where it's definitely a public perception versus sharp play. But I'm with you on the Packers. When we talk about futures on Thursday, I feel like the Packers are 100% a team that needs to be invested in thinking ahead to when Micah Parsons comes back and Josh Jacobs comes back. And if their offensive line can get healthy, they become a sneaky, sneaky powerhouse in a depleted NFC. So I don't disagree.

59:01 I just wonder if it's a week too early against the wrong team. I'm very curious to see if we're split on this one too. Awesome. Angeles Rams versus the Las Vegas Raiders. I want to be on the Rams here. And I think the questions I'm asking myself are, do we think the Rams are a good team? Their record doesn't say they are a good team. Their coaching staff is good. Their quarterback is good. Their skill positions are good.

59:34 But they are obviously not playing very well. We know the Raiders are a competitive team. This has ticked down six to five and a half, now to four and a half since Sunday. I don't like betting against the Raiders, man. Like, we've done so well with them. But I think the perception of them is kind of almost like they almost won that game against the Bills. and we know how low the perception is of the Rams right now, weirdly similar teams. Even on like an EPA per play overall on offense, Raiders are better with the pass, Rams much better with the run, obviously. Rams very good defensively on EPA per play and EPA per pass. Terrible against the run, doesn't matter. The Raiders are terrible on the ground. So like...

1:00:28 It's tough, man. I feel like the side is the Rams, and I hate betting against the Raiders.

1:00:34 Yeah, you're right. The Rams probably are either side, but.

1:00:38 Oh, no.

1:00:39 I know. It's like another game I have to work on because it's just the books are trying to make us take the Rams. That's what it feels like here where they're going to keep dropping this number, right? I'm seeing a couple of shots already go to four. So the public, the pros are all hammering the Raiders. I hammered them at plus six. I couldn't believe they hung that number on Sunday night. The Rams are bad, man.

1:01:02 It's not like you can say they're simply poorly coached. In some ways, they are. To me, it's Stafford does not look to write all season. Now Devontae Adams is going to be out six to ten weeks. Their bestie tackle is out, and Aaron Donald is a shell of his former self. I think he has two solo tackles this season, nothing else. I mean, that's Aaron Donald. That is mind-blowing when you look at his– His line is chart right now this season. It's like I know he took two years off and your body needs to adjust.

1:01:32 He is truly a shell of his former self. He is the 94th rated D tackle in football right now, which I just can't wrap my head around that. It's just he's fallen so far from grace. So now you have your best D tackle is out. Aaron Donald is not who he used to be. Your best D end is out of Miles Garrett. I mean– this shouldn't the Raiders do whatever they want offensively. And the Raiders have been playing really well this year. They had one hiccup game against New England. I just, I don't get the spread.

1:02:02 It just, this, this feels like the books are still telling us as Rams team is the dream team. They're a great team where we've seen the evidence this year. It's totally the other way. So yes, Rams, if we're just going based off what we know, long-term betting angles, This is a Rams spot. This is a total bounce back spot for the Rams. But we talk all the time about the human element of this team. Are they just totally dead inside? I mean, that was a brutal, grueling loss they had last week. Now you want to get benefit to Matthew Stafford and him bouncing back. And it's like, he's a veteran quarterback. They should bounce back.

1:02:37 But now you're down to multiple weapons offensively. It's just so bad. It is so bad right now for the Rams. So I think your read is right. Like it's just, it's no different than Arizona Denver game where our brains are telling us Something's off with this line. The books are trying to tell us here. But I still think the line's too inflated. Like, get us down to three, three and a half. Then I start thinking Rams. But four, four and a half? No, this is still, to me, a Raiders line. The Raiders have been a better team this season. They're healthier. Their offense has been more consistent.

1:03:05 It's just that's my view of it right now. So, yeah, this Rams, I know what the books are trying to do. They're trying to get us to be on this Rams side. So maybe we will. But as I sit here right now, I would, if I had to make my picks up, turn them in today for my pick pools. I probably would take the Raiders at plus four and a half. Wow.

1:03:22 So interesting. It's going to be an interesting Thursday. Sunday Night Football, Kansas City at Seattle. Seattle's now a two and a half point favorite. On Sunday night when we did the show, we both love Kansas City. I bet them at one and a half. I think we thought the line was going to flip, and it was actually juiced like it was moving in that direction. I don't know if you know. Some wise guy group came in and hammered Seattle. And the truth is, like, the trend's back playing Seattle here. But did we jump the gun?

1:03:54 The Chiefs are a very public dog right now.

1:03:59 Yeah, never good. Like we said, back-to-back, Raiders public dog, Chiefs big public dog. To me, it's another view of are we smart in the books? And we know we're not, right? The books are billion-dollar organizations. They know exactly what they're doing here. So another game where, yes, maybe I'll just do the coward route and just tease them up. There's no world Mahomes loses this game by more than a touchdown, and now you're getting eight and a half, and it's easier.

1:04:22 So that's an incredible value if you want to take up some of the Chiefs. Plus 120 on the money line on the Chiefs against the Seattle team. That's, to me, more great value. I mean, how can it not be where our question right now with Seattle is Sam Darnold is consistently losing them games. He is turning the ball over.

1:04:41 He's not looking comfortable. I mean, if they just kept Drew Locke in, it feels like they'd be a much better team this season. I know that sounds crazy to say.

1:04:47 I can't believe we're saying that.

1:04:50 But the underlying numbers show there is literally no difference spread-wise or drop-off-wise from Drew Locke to Sam Darnold. If anything, Sam Darnold has hurt them worse this year. And you could point to that they have an OC who, you know, Eagles went through the same thing. You have a first-time OC calling plays for the first time. And that's my biggest gripe right now with the Seattle offensive. They just look so inconsistent defensively. You know, as much as we want to blame their defense, right, gave up, what was it, 32 to the 49ers? A lot of that was short fields, those turnovers by Sam Darnold, those fumbles by the running backs, whatever you want to say. They just have not looked good,

1:05:26 just like the Rams this year. It still feels like they're priced in what they were last year. And that's my fear here, where it's like, yeah, do we think they're going to get better and bounce back? I mean, they're off a bad loss, 32 points to the 49ers, and they gave up, what was it, 17 to Denver? Yeah.

1:05:43 It's not terrible. Like their offense, once again, failed them with Sam Darnold. Now you're playing a Chiefs team that, I mean, I think we both agree, they look like the best team across the board defensively and offensively. It's like, oh, Mahomes doesn't have it tonight. Here's Kenneth Walker running for 120.

1:05:59 It's like they can do that where they've never had that before. So scary, scary line where it's like another game where the pros, the books taking a stand on Seattle. Me and Chad have made a lot of money taking a stand with them, and we know what we're supposed to do here. But my brain right now is just like, dude, this Seattle team looks totally lost, and they just look so poorly coached offensively. You're really banking on their defense here.

1:06:26 That's what you're really betting on with this number of Seattle. So, yeah, looking forward to hearing what the guys are saying on this one because I don't see it. It's like, oh, my God, you're getting Mahomes as a dog. We've always talked, if you just blindly bet this spot, you've been profitable over long term. And this is no different than– the dog of the bills plus three and a half at the rams the pros were hammering the rams and i told you that felt like the biggest sucker bet ever like if you want to take rams at minus two and a half that made sense but at minus three and a half that was a dumb bet the bills won that game outright it feels a little like here where the books are taking a stand on a team

1:07:00 that's like i get the pros are just going to blindly back this team but it feels a little trappish to me feels like a pro trap so We'll see on this one. I just, I don't get the line movement. Like you said, it's really respected money that moved this number. So I could completely miss in it right now, but you're giving me chiefs plus eight and a half in a teaser. Oh my God. I am running to the window to put that in all my tickets right now.

1:07:20 It's just, I can't see them getting blown out.

1:07:22 Well, look, we've seen that the biggest difference for the chiefs right now is Kenneth Walker. And we've seen that the biggest difference for the Seahawks right now has been their inability to find a consistent running game that can take the ball out of Sam Darnold's hands and So he isn't being forced to try to win you the game and make plays in which he consistently turns.

1:07:43 The ball over.

1:07:44 That is the difference right now. And you can say what you want about Seattle had to make the financial decisions to let Kenneth Walker go. They're invested in Zach Charbonnet coming back.

1:07:55 What if I told you they paid Rashid Shahid the same amount of money? I mean, that's crazy, right?

1:07:59 That's crazy. It's crazy. But they drafted Darian Price. They've tried to find answers. They just haven't worked because of injuries. And it just might not be they're at the Seattle level of value that we expected them to be, especially when they started off the season so strong. So yeah, maybe we double down on the Chiefs here at plus two and a half. Dallas at Philadelphia.

1:08:31 Yeah.

1:08:32 Dallas is a four and a half point favorite. I mean, what do we say? There is an argument that we just follow the move, take the Cowboys at four and a half. They certainly have more to play for. Both teams from a perception point of view, pretty low. You know, can Tanner McKee be better with a full week of practice knowing he's the guy?

1:08:53 Maybe.

1:08:56 The Cowboys defense is terrible, but good Lord. Simon, this is a Monday night snooze fest here.

1:09:06 Yeah, the NFC least. First division is an NFL history that back-to-back weeks with every team played in that game, and no one won in two straight weeks.

1:09:14 Unbelievable.

1:09:15 Historical. Historical bad division right now, so. Yeah. I mean, I've had a ton of people asking, you know, they want me to shit on the Eagles organization for what they did with the hurts and potentially they could have killed the man, like the blood clot stuff. It's terrifying. It's, it's really serious. And that's my, it's my whole issue with the whole year now attitude though, that we all act like we care about these players health and their safety and this organizations act like they care about player healthy and safe, where it's just like, these people are all scumbags, man. They just, they treat these guys like cattle.

1:09:45 I hate it. And it's like, The whole thing, if you're in a hospital the day before with blood clots, you should not be playing an NFL game the next day. I think a five-year-old could make that decision. But Jalen Hurts, the psycho competitor he is, you don't want to miss the game. These scumbags in the Eagles organization, I let them play. Like, I hope Hurts sues the shit out of them as, like, a fan of, you know. I've said it, but it's true. Hurts is the best quarterback, the most decorated quarterback in Eagles history. And for them to treat him like that, not protect him from himself, I hate it. In the NFL, too, where people– the whole area now, people are like– they're going to go on Twitter and bash these Eagles and everything like that,

1:10:22 which they should. If people cared about football and players' health, they'd take away the helmet. They would change the game. They won't do that, though, because we love the game we watch. We love violence. So everyone that tries to act like, oh, it's all about player safety, it's such bullshit. And that's what I felt here where it's– I just can't imagine the vibes around Philadelphia locker room. You just know your organization and it treats their players like cattle.

1:10:44 And the flip side, Dallas– embarrassment you don't have an excuse of your quarterbacks for your whole offense is hurt everyone's healthy your your offense is healthy your defense is healthy you're just a bad team with a bad head coach so seeing the public coming on Dallas is honestly shocking to me well I mean why would you not take the four and a half on the Eagles at home the Eagles have been competitive every game I mean that game against Carolina you could say it came down to a fourth down play where the Eagles were I think it was like 13 to 7 or 14 to 7 and they jumped off sides on a fourth down and they end up scoring a touchdown Carolina and You know, that's the game, basically. So I agree with Chad that

1:11:20 Tanner might be better after a week of getting full team reps and everything. That against a Dallas defense that has just been absolutely terrible against the past. I mean, they're horrible in the secondary this year. So just too many points, probably. That's my view of it, where it's like, I get it. It's going to be hard for me to give you a reason why to back this Eagles team.

1:11:36 They've been so horrible. And you could do what I've been doing all year is just fade them the second half. I think they're 0-6 now in the second half if you just bet against the Eagles. on that second half spread line at halftime. So just a gross number where we both, that we're supposed to be on the Eagles here and the public, the public is going to hammer the Cowboys. And this is an easily another game that the Cowboys could lose. It's just, that's how bad they are.

1:11:58 And for the get right spot, Dallas could get right here, right? Offensively, this could be the exact thing they need to get right and kind of find their way after two really bad weeks of offensive display. So, Yeah, I'm simply just playing the number, playing the four and a half on this Eagles team. But you can just tell it's not– like there's other games I'd rather benefit from where this Eagles won. I have no idea what I'm getting from Tanner, honestly.

1:12:22 All right. We've got a lot to review. We're going to talk about some futures on Thursday as well when we dig in deeper and try to get to our final five. Very curious to see what the professionals are saying about the Giants and the Texans, about the Raiders and the Rams, about the Packers and the Lions. Simon Says was Tampa Bay plus three and a half. Chad's choice was Atlanta plus three and a half. As always, we find ourselves drifting towards the NFC South. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Thursday with the games we are zeroing in on, plus our survivor pick, our head-to-head battle, brass ball, so much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel.

1:13:08 Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you. Buffalo has flexed its muscle and built itself as one of the mightiest teams in the NFL. It indeed appears the Bills are back in shape, giving fans in Buffalo reason to pump up.