StoneX' Vincent Deluard: The S&P Is Hiding a Bear Market | #655

My guest today is Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX.

In today’s episode, Vincent explains why he’s turning bearish on stocks after years of being a bull. He shares why tax collections are his favorite gauge of the economy, why the world is really paying $150 to $200 for oil and why Europe resembles Japan in 2012, just uglier.

To close, Vincent makes the case for owning the yen, Korean won and UK stocks.

(0:00) Bull Market or Bear Market?

(3:04) The Bifurcated Economy

(6:50) Turning Bearish on Stocks

(10:31) Midterm Politics and the Policy Put

(14:20) Shadow Oil and Inflation

(22:47) Shadow VIX and Market Churn

(26:40) Europe Looking Like Japan

(38:54) Bond Yields and Global Rotation

(46:08) Brazil, Korea, and France

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Past guests include Ed Thorp (mebfaber.com/2017/02/08/10017), Richard Thaler (mebfaber.com/2021/08/04/e337-richard-thaler), Jeremy Grantham (mebfaber.com/2021/02/08/episode-286-jeremy-gra…), Joel Greenblatt (mebfaber.com/2020/10/28/episode-260-joel-green…), Campbell Harvey (mebfaber.com/2019/08/28/episode-172-cam-harvey…), Ivy Zelman (mebfaber.com/2022/03/30/403-ivy-zelman), Kathryn Kaminski (mebfaber.com/2021/05/12/e310-kathryn-kaminski), Jason Calacanis (mebfaber.com/2017/08/30/episode-69-jason-calac…), Whitney Baker, (mebfaber.com/2022/01/31/e387-whitney-baker) Aswath Damodaran (mebfaber.com/2019/05/10/episode-155-aswath-dam…), Howard Marks (mebfaber.com/2018/10/03/episode-124-howard-mar…), Tom Barton (mebfaber.com/2018/10/10/episode-125-tom-barton…), and many more.

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (thepodcastconsultant.com).