Catalyst Countdown⏳Technical Analysis📉 with Tim Warren

0:00 Catalysts are on the way, could impact the market, and there's a lot of things that are leading into some very interesting narratives. We'll break it down for you guys today. Before we do that, I want to thank our sponsor. That's iTrust Capital, where you guys can get into your own crypto IRA, cryptocurrency, stocks, gold and silver, all available over on iTrust Capital. One account, unlimited possibilities. This is one of the platforms they've been around for quite a while.

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0:38 And you're going to have to start tax planning soon. And IRAs are one of the diversification things that you should be doing to set yourself up for success. Let's get started. I want to bring in Tim Warren coming in from Tim Warren Trades.

0:50 How are you? Doing good, Paul. How are you doing? I'm excellent, man.

0:55 We're going to lock in on a couple of digital assets here, but we're also going to take a look at some of the markets as well for everybody. By the way, if you guys are not following Tim, jump over to his YouTube channel. Right now, here on the front, Tim Warren Trades right there. We're going to break 70,000 subs.

1:13 Let's go there, bro. We need to break 70k. And before you know it, we're going to be popping off.

1:20 We did tell our community. We told our community. So we have like what? About nine more days. If we get to 68, I think we need like 400 more subscribers. 68,000, we'll give away $ 500 to one of our subscribers next week. Let's go, guys. Come on. Get there.

1:36 500 bucks is in the bag.

1:37 Here we go. All right, Tim.

1:40 Let's take a look at some things because this is happening right now. You had a pretty bad sell-off today. Wall Street, $ 790 billion wiped out. Looking at right now, nearly a trillion wipeout across six major Asian markets as well. This thing got to be a rampant problem across the globe. And you're looking at not only that, but now it's starting to bleed into crypto. Obviously, we've seen this situation occur around Bitcoin.

2:09 U.S.

2:09 Markets, $ 1. 1 trillion wiped out today. The S & P down 980%. Nvidia down $ 200 billion, SpaceX down $ 130 billion. I think there's some reasons on that, though, and we'll talk about that. Meta also down $ 110 billion.

2:25 Wiped out.

2:25 First of all, when you saw the market moving this morning like what we are seeing, what were some of the catalysts that you were considering that were underway that were causing this?

2:37 Yeah, well, I mean, the first thing, obviously, so when I woke up this morning, I checked charts, right? That's what's usually one of the first things I do in the morning. And I saw that markets were down. In my show yesterday, we told our community there were some daily buy signals we liked. There's actually some really good things.

2:51 You'll see yesterday's video. It said breakout confirmed. We broke a lot of resistance. We are forming some daily buy signals that historically, I never promised anyone anything. There's always a chance that it fails and it gets invalidated, but daily buy signals have been very good recently. So I'm looking at this and I told my community, Hey, let's get a pullback. We'll look for something maybe tomorrow or the next day. My brain was thinking like 82, five 83.

3:13 So obviously we've come down lower than that. I am surprised by how low we've gotten, but the fact that we pulled back, isn't the surprise to me. It's how strong. And then of course you go through the news and you see things like the Chinese stock market or the Chinese economy is technically in a bear market because it's down 20%. All these hacks happening across Asian platforms. So that explains it a little better. Okay.

3:39 So let's go to the Bitcoin chart real quick because you had a tweet out there, Bitcoin on fire. I wasn't sure if you were talking on fire as in burning or on fire as in hot. Which way are you going here?

3:52 Yeah, well, to be fair, this is my business partner tweeting from my account. He's the news guy, the fundamental guy. And obviously, we don't have the data today from what the inflows are doing. But in the last three days, meaning the previous three days, this week, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, over a billion dollars of inflows for Bitcoin ETFs. So there's been clear demand. Now, again, today, we wake up, everything's down. We'll have to see tomorrow what the damage is.

4:18 I'm sure there's some ETFs selling off there. But the reality is, institutional interest peaked here earlier this week. And yes, we're down right now. But like I just said, there's some catalysts out there. We were already anticipating a pullback yesterday. Is it more extreme? I'll show you on the charts kind of what I'm thinking, what I'm looking at right here.

4:36 So the first thing from a very structural standpoint, you know, you go back a couple of days ago, Paul, I was still in the camp of saying, I think 75 K is needed, maybe even coming all the way back down to the 200 day moving average. So if I ended up being wrong about the confirmed breakout and the daily buy signal is invalidated, well, I'll just go right back to looking for 75 to 72 K or at this point, 73 K. That's what the 200 day moving average is. I'll go, I'll go back there.

5:02 Right.

5:03 But for right now, what I'm What I'm still watching is we were in, let's go to the four-hour charts. This looks a little cleaner, looks a little better. We were in a little bit of a falling channel pattern. If you look at my red line and green line right here, there was definitely constricted movements. Now, we broke out of this the other day back on the 20th.

5:21 combined with, if you go back to the daily chart, my Neurowave indicator, and again, I won't spend a lot of time going into this, but we had a confirmed daily buy signal the other day. This green dot with the upflow in money, this money flow right here, this red dot right here, it's flowing to the positive side.

5:37 It's still bullish here today. The last couple of times we've gotten this, think back to September 18th, think back here to August 18th, very, very bullish periods of time for Bitcoin. And in fact- Again, I don't want to waste your time with this, but if you go back, even in the bear market, it's not common. It happens, but like daily buy signals with this indicator have a roughly 80% probability of putting us at least back up to where the previous high was, if not going higher.

6:04 So when I see that indicator and I see the breakout, it leads me to be bullish. Now, what I like to do is I like to take a look at the two-day chart and decide when I buy once I see those daily buy signals. And yesterday you can see We'll just look at the RSI. Look at how high we were yesterday. When I was doing my live show yesterday, this is where the RSI was. I'm like, I'm not buying an asset that has an RSI level way over 70 points here. So I was looking for a pullback.

6:31 Guess what? The pullback has happened. What I'm curious and wondering about is were we just in this pullback because of the bad news in Asia, it could have easily bounced here around, again, 82 to even 80, 82 or so. But we didn't, we went a little lower. Were we chasing some liquidations of long positions that were put in position back here on October 20th. If this will load for me, there you go. You can see there's a nice looking order block sitting down here on 80,600. We just kissed it not long before doing this video. So to me, I'm not ready to abandon the buy signal and the breakout. I do think we have a little bit of a bearish move right here, but for me, the line in the sand is gonna be this 80K mark,

7:14 the bottom of my green box here. As long as we stay above that green, the bottom of that green box, we're good to go. I still think that this is a daily buy. So if we lose it, that's OK. I'll flip. I'm not a big believer that there's ever really a time to go all in until there's some people going to hate this. You're like, shouldn't you go all in at the bottom? You never know at the bottom if that's the bottom. You can take an educated guess.

7:37 You can look at analytics. You can look at charts. I'm a big believer of look at your key support levels and look at your key resistance levels. Buy extreme weakness at support or extreme strength of breakouts above resistance. So did I buy some Bitcoin spotwise the other day when we broke resistance and got that daily buy signal? Yes, I did. Was it a perfect buy? No, it was not.

7:59 Where's my next buy going to be? My next buy is either going to be another break to the upside. or all the way back down there at 75K.

8:06 Why?

8:06 Because 75K is going to be where we come back into support. I'm going to buy support levels. I'm going to DCA in. But let's pretend, Paul, I had $ 10, 000. I'm never, $ 10, 000 of dry powder, that is. I'm never taking $ 10, 000 of dry powder and going all in right there. You might find me having convictions saying, you know what, let's put like 4,000 to 5,000. Let's put like almost half of this in here because I do think this is the bottom. Sure, that's great. But I'm always going to hold at least a little bit. to make sure there's not something lower. And if you say like, well, Tim, how do you keep stacking? Two ways. Number one, I day trade. So I have profits from shorts and longs.

8:42 I stack and I keep adding dry powder. I also have a monthly income and I have this thing called a budget. Every single month, my wife allows me to take some of our income and put that towards buying dips when they happen. So if you're looking for a way to always have cash in that dry powder bag, look to day trade, look to have a budget. That's my advice for you.

9:02 Well, and I think what people are asking right now is, has this bleeding ended? Is it going to stop? I'm still concerned right now that we've got a much larger macro headwind coming to us. And this could obviously be a catalyst coming out of China, which could, of course, introduce macro headwinds all the way going into U.S. treasuries, which will, of course, start to affect the U.S., That's the bigger concern. So I still think we are going to see a sub 80K Bitcoin again.

9:33 It's possible. It definitely is possible.

9:36 I want to touch on midterms, OK?

9:38 Yeah.

9:39 Because this is also looked at as possibly a correlation to what's happening in the crypto markets. I want to play Sat1 here.

9:46 This is Schwab. On average, there's little impact of rising odds of a blue sweep in Congress.

9:54 Impacting crypto prices. Looking at the correlation there hasn't been much of a correlation between the two. All right, so I'm going to kind of push back on this. I think there is a correlation between the two. And if you just look at what's going on with PolyMarket, and where it has been. When you consider these epic rises, a lot of these moves, if you go back here into this mid, you know, late August range, and if you jump over into, you know, mid, late August right there, I mean, you've got an epic rise in Bitcoin right there coming up. Same kind of thing has happened right here around mid-September. And then we've even seen this kind of this lower section right here where it's almost in alignment with these dips. Let me kind of zoom in

10:40 on that.

10:40 For you guys.

10:41 So it has a lot of similarities to it. And the reason that people would say, well, wait a minute, why is a democratic party a good thing for crypto? And I think it's a gridlock situation. If you think of what's happened with Clarity, which has been in reality good for crypto, I know Saylor just recently came out, probably one of the best things could have happened to crypto.

11:02 This may be another advantage that gridlock is possibly gonna face this and others and could push off everything you can imagine away from focusing on crypto. So hopefully Senator Warren would not be putting her crosshairs on crypto after this.

11:19 What do you think? The reality is when it comes to the markets and this type of stuff, Paul, is perception does not equal reality. And the markets are way more about perception. Case in point, do you guys remember in 2024, fall of 2024, when the perception was that Donald Trump would be the greatest thing for the crypto markets?

11:38 He wins the election. Bitcoin and altcoins rip up to the upside. And then day one of him being in office, he starts doing things that are bad for crypto. The reality is Donald Trump to this point has not been the greatest thing for crypto, but perception was that he would be. So people are going to argue all day long, Paul, about if we should have Democrats in power or if we should have Republicans in power. Here's the two reasons why I think midterms can be bullish. Number one, let's pretend we live in a world, Paul, where Democrats are perceived to be bad for cryptocurrency. You just showed us those marks right there about predictions. Everyone right now is expecting Democrats to win. So if that's the expectation, we're

12:18 baking it ahead of time that Democrats are going to win. Therefore, maybe they're not bullish for it, but they're not going to hurt it either because we're already expecting it. On the flip side, like I said, perception is everything. We thought we perceived that Donald Trump, a change in the guard from Joe Biden to Donald Trump would be bullish for crypto. Therefore, when he won, prices shot to the upside.

12:38 I think there's a group of people out there are saying, look at what Donald Trump's done over the last two years. He's been terrible for crypto. We perceive that a flip back to Democrat leadership could actually be the most bullish thing for crypto. Therefore, there's a world in which I see the election going as planned. Democrats win everything. And the market's ripped to the upside because of both sides of the coin. We were expecting it. And there's a weird perception that people think it's going to be good.

13:01 So I guess the question would be is how does this lead into the midterms? Here we are, October 22nd.

13:08 We've got a.

13:12 Do you think we see another continued downtrend here before the midterms? Or do you feel like we might see a pump before the midterms? Where do you land on that?

13:22 It depends on what we do here with ADK. If we can keep ADK support, then we keep rallying into it. If we lose it, I'm looking for that 70, 75, 73. All right.

13:32 So let's jump over to China. And I want to reiterate a couple of things. This, of course, is kind of leaning into your thesis here. You had China's stock market officially entered the bear market. We showed this earlier, but there's the AI trade down, taking a beating. And we've been following a lot of these tokens and a lot of these stocks that come out of China. If you jump down here, let me jump over to my China chart. A couple of these I want to hit on.

13:57 First of all is the CSI 300 index. So this gets into a lot of that that really starts to take a look. If we start to dip into this, this being Chinese stock index index, If we start to see this dip further, it's likely you're going to see a stimulus start to make its way in as China figures out a way to stimulate their economy because they cannot have this end up happening. And further into that, I just want to show you something here. Here is CXMT. This, of course, was on the weekly. Right there is the bleed that we've been talking about. This is one of the chip makers out there. Think of this as the micron of China. You look at Samsung, also had a bad day and bad week. You've got SK Hynix, also

14:41 another manufacturer right there. Let's take a look at BYD, also dipping down, which is the EV maker right there in China, which has been dominating really overall. But I want to go to a clip real quick, and this will start to lead into why maybe there is a Chinese stimulus coming.

14:57 Take a look.

14:58 It might require a fiscal stimulus from the government to see a broad-based recovery in China economy. But if you look at the medium-term outlook over the next five years, China is going to spend $ 3. 7 trillion when it comes to the six networks. That's 20% of China's economy. So I do think this pullback that we have seen in China, Asia, hardware stocks, that's a buying opportunity.

15:22 I think that is the case, is this is a buying opportunity. We did a whole China video yesterday. I think it was yesterday. that we put it out, really analyzing this ahead of what news came out today, basically looking at what potentially could be lining up here as a major buy opportunity. And this goes a little bit further.

15:44 I don't know if you follow Linus Tech Tips out there, you know, if you're- A little bit, yeah, yeah.

15:48 Okay, all right.

15:49 So Linus did a whole analysis on CXMT. This is an important part too, because they could have a huge, may be indicator to a lot of the chip makers here in the US because of the competitive nature that I think they bring to the market. Let me play this clip from Linus.

16:08 I was, you know, Kind of hopeful that CXMT having a bunch of capacity go online would like have some kind of an impact of some sort. And instead, it seems like what actually happened was all the supply that they could possibly muster was immediately absorbed. And if you can make semiconductors of any sort right now. It is a license to print money. You print as much of it as you can and someone will buy it and then you have money. And CXMT is a beneficiary of that.

16:40 It is going to surprise some people. The Korean and American companies under-investing in capacity is going to be their downfall it might take five years it might take 10 years it might take 20 years but in keeping the price of memory so high they are effectively funding cxmt like ultimate takeover of the memory market.

17:06 All right so the point he's getting at and the reason this is important to everybody out there is if you're considering the ai trade and the productivity ai becoming a bleed-in to what's happening in the crypto market, CXMT is going to become a new titan in the industry. Now, I agree with Linus there is that they, right now, they're just following the line of the market. Market goes up and they're going to attack it and go up with the market. But they are now in a position, China, and this is their golden child in terms of the stock market. This is their SpaceX. I think they're going to have to get into a position where they have to become more competitive so they can start undercutting these companies,

17:47 which puts more pressure on the U.S. companies.

17:50 This is all good for AI, I think.

17:52 In general, long term. It's going to cheapen a lot of these things. And compute is one of the biggest problems that we're dealing with. So those are the things I'm watching very closely. And it gets into even what's going on with Solana because this all correlates. That's why I think you're seeing Solana put so much effort in connectivity to what's happening in China. App and Glow launches now live on Solana mainnet. Went from 12.8 seconds. This is insane, man. 150 milliseconds. This is crazy in terms of the advancement of speed. They are now in lockstep with the biggest companies out there in terms of just transaction speed for payments. So when you look at Solana.

18:37 On the chart right now, how does it fare for you?

18:42 Yeah.

18:42 I mean, in a similar boat to Bitcoin, but what you're seeing today with Solana is, I don't know if it's the Alpenglow news that is keeping it from being as severe. I mean, Bitcoin right now is down 3.44% of the day. Solana only 3.1, right? So like Solana- in the pullback isn't even as severe as Bitcoin. That's actually quite surprising. Maybe that's a sign of like people aren't as bearish there. Solana, very similar to Bitcoin. There's a lot of similarities across multiple crypto charts. Had a daily buy signal here the other day, broke above a trend of resistance, told the community yesterday, hey, we're looking for a pullback on Solana as well. This one's a little more realistic. I think I was looking at the 103,

19:21 102 zone. for that pullback. So more realistic, I'm not necessarily as surprised right there. So at the moment, again, just like Bitcoin, I'm cautiously optimistic that Solana is ready for another move to the upside. Again, going back to that daily buy signal, I'm showing people on this chart right here, that green dot, that positive money flow. Again, you correlate that with these dates that they've happened previously.

19:45 And those were fantastic times to be acquiring Solana before running up to a high high. So until I see that break, and for me, the number is going to be probably here around $ 100. $ 100 is my support level for Solana. I'm bullish as long as we're above it. We drop below it, and then all of a sudden, I'm looking at levels of support down below, probably somewhere in the world down here of 90 to 93. I think if I were to go to a different time frame, let me look. Yeah, there we go. 22% order block here on the 12 hour chart around $ 93. So if we lose a hundred, I'll look for 93 to 90.

20:20 Otherwise I just, I've learned historically, I'm better off trusting the daily buy signal until it shows me it's failed. Then I trade the failure. I trade the trade to the downside. Otherwise though, I'm going to continue to look for a move to the upside on Solana before I look for the next move down. Okay.

20:38 So you're still very bullish on, on soul. Um, One thing to watch right now is some of the deals that are being made in the industry. And this was announced. Well, I shouldn't say it was announced. It was rumored. You had Axios actually reported on this, that Visa was in late-stage talks with Firebox. I think this was almost either a rumor that was put out there because Visa is and maybe realizes they're now in competition with Solana and that eventually we're going to see a Solana payment model that is going to rival that of a lot of the credit card networks. Fireblocks, of course, came out and said, no, that's not the case.

21:15 It's news to us.

21:16 Then Visa responded, we're not going to comment on rumors or speculation. Listen, there's something going on here when it comes to crypto payments. And it's going to get big fast. And I think Visa sees the writing on the wall. The banks are probably seeing it. coming in as well. So some big deals coming down.

21:35 Did you just, did you just accuse a massive corporation of putting out potentially fake headlines for ulterior motives? All the time.

21:44 I think they're always, listen, there's always an alternate agenda. I question everything. I question everything now. I trust nothing. I mean, nothing. Uh, you, you have to. So, uh, listen guys, this is, uh, it's going to get interesting and it's going to get interesting fast. So pay attention because things are getting ready to move. Let's go to this right here because this is a big debate. And I know you are a Chainlink guy. And when I say a Chainlink guy, you have been charting and following Chainlink for a long time. And you've been very much of an advocate for what they're doing as an oracle.

22:22 And now you have a big debate here. You've got Chainlink and Avalanche possibly becoming a very unique, either partnership or alignment. Here's my question to you and for our listeners and viewers. If you had to only buy one token in these two, which one would you buy? Would you still stay with Chainlink or where would you land?

22:43 Well, listen, I like AVAX. And I did a video the other day that I know made some people upset where I went through my top 10 holdings. And just so you know, even the coin I flipped in number 10, today I'm sitting here saying, did I make a mistake putting that coin in number 10? Should I actually have put this other coin instead? I hold more than 10 coins, right? So, and hopefully people never listen to those videos and just assume, well, if Tim doesn't put a coin into his video, that means he absolutely hates it. I like AVAX. I like fundamentally what AVAX is about. My fundamental guy, Crux of Crypto, absolutely loves AVAX. If you're telling me though, like, let me stop by saying, I own both and I will

23:21 continue to own both. Right now today, October 22nd of 2026, I am still sticking with Chainlink until further notice.

23:30 Why?

23:31 Because once again, Chainlink is the one cryptocurrency out there that I think no matter what else happens with the rest of the world crypto, it's going to be around. Competitions are all over the place. Corporations are going back and forth things. Chainlink took the approach of we're going to be friends with everybody. so that no matter what the future looks like, we find a way to succeed.

23:53 It's kind of like these massive corporations that donate to the funding of both Republicans and Democrats in politics. It's because they say, no matter who wins the election, I want my interests looked after. Similarly, Chainlink is partnering and saying, hey, we'll work with you over here. We'll work with you over here. Whoever wins your battle, great. You guys declare the winner. I'm already partnered with them. It's the number one oracle for a reason. The competition isn't even close yet.

24:19 I do think people– I understand some fundamental arguments is why some people don't love details of Chainlink. But when I listen to their team, the developers, and the vision plan, I think this is a market cap we're looking at, Paul, in the world of bare minimum $ 50 billion by 2030.

24:37 Wow.

24:40 I think it's not crazy to think about $ 100 to $ 150 billion. I could end up being wrong. I'm open to being wrong. But that's my thought process at the moment. That would be, I think that would be on the low end, somewhere around $ 100 chain link. On the high end, somewhere closer to $ 200 chain link. I know in the past I've talked about $ 700. I definitely have sobered my expectation.

25:04 Someday $ 700 chain link will happen. 2030, no. Stars would really have to align for that to happen. Okay. But 200 to 250 area, I think is still actually very doable for LINK in the future. All right.

25:16 So just as a, you know, kind of to validate this, these two tokens were the top two token picks for Charles Schwab. And if you go to their story that we were just showing there, a couple of key things here that they kind of centered in around Chainlink. And I thought this was an interesting take. Key debates right here on LINK and Avalanche center on two different areas of crypto. One is the ecosystem. Chainlink's role in blockchain infrastructure data services. And the key debate they're talking about is can it expand into a broader platform which could make switching costs and network effects really take effect. And then, of course, they talk about Avalanche because of its position right now with RWAs. Both of these are very powerful

26:00 in a position. And we've had Toli on the show before, and he has indicated that that there's a much bigger picture being painted for Chainlink. So maybe Schwab starts to see this. I'm going to play a couple of clips here for you, Tim, but also we're going to integrate kind of a rapid fire on charts. Okay, Tim, I want to play a clip here from Terry Duffy, the CME, breaking down. And this was interesting because this was CNBC trying to defend against it, which they were talking about hype.

26:31 So take a look.

26:32 And Terry, it's Kelly just to jump in here. You know, there's so much innovation with financial products right now. Do you guys need more scale? I mean, there are big, big changes coming.

26:45 So that's a problem because they all can't be legitimate and they all can't be not readily susceptible to manipulation. There's got to be some that's a problem for the participants. And we're just not seeing the CFTC act like that. So innovation is great as long as it's not at the cost of efficiencies and credibility to the marketplace.

27:05 But that is kind of what's happening right now. In other words, perps are perpetual future. I mean, I'm thinking to me, they seem like more of a rival to what you're doing. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but you don't want to take physical delivery. I don't want a barrel of oil, right? A perpetual future would avoid that outcome, but it also can be leveraged. I don't know, 10, 20, maybe more. And all of this innovation is happening. And as you know, here's what can happen. The disruptor comes, they take the market. And then regulation catches up five or ten years later, but the original guys are already out of the picture.

27:35 I don't believe that that is something that the U.S. participants want to have. So we'll have to wait and see. But you've got to remember, most of these products, if not all, are basically retail products. CME Group is 94% institutional, Kel. So this is not....

27:55 All right, so you can kind of see the doubt. They understand what's coming. It's a train coming down the track for the CME, and I think they know it. When you look at hyperliquid, give me your chart on hyperliquid. Where do you see this one heading right now?

28:10 Yeah, so hyperliquid, I talk on the charts from time to time with my community and people are going to think I hate it. I don't. I like hype. I did think a correction was needed for a while. And again, I think hype could go a little lower, but we did have the daily sell signals come in here. We were able to get some good positions there. We've hit this support level once again. And here, this is a late bloomer. Almost everything else gave us buy signals a couple days ago. This one kind of just confirmed yesterday.

28:39 A daily buy signal on hype. What I would love to see it do is break some trends that are kind of in play at the moment. I would love to see it get above, you know, these red this red line here doesn't like we rejected. But I'm open to being bullish again on hype. And if I am bullish on hype and we do start to break the upside, I'll do it for you guys again. Daily buy signal.

28:58 Don't get a lot of these. We had one back over here. I think they all came in around September 18th, 17th, give or take. And back over here, August 3rd, you can see those buy signals have led towards higher highs. So what does that mean? Until that history changes, that would suggest this buy signal thinks that hype's going to get above $ 98 per coin. I'm going to start looking at some resistance levels to the upside here. And there's just not a whole lot until, and I have to go to a macro chart to show you guys, but I had this drawn from months ago, closer to 115. Right.

29:31 So I could see hype getting up there long haul. I think hype, Paul, I talked about market cap with Chainlink a little bit. I think hype. is one of those coins and projects that you could see a market cap in the world of 500 billion up to a trillion. And in the video, I mean, you look at it right there, it's almost like I'm trying to think of a story. You can see her second guessing everything he's saying as if I don't trust what you're saying. You're a dinosaur who's clearly here trying to self preserve yourself because you see the writing on the wall that your job's at stake. even the laugh he laughed like almost like oh there's no but like it was an insulting chuckle the way he gave it almost like i need

30:18 to i need to look very um authoritative and like the idea of this perpetual thing coming and taking that's just crazy that's ridiculous those are the people get wrecked blindsided and ruined because they can't adopt and move in the future.

30:32 Yeah those are the laugh tell to me, is one of the big indicators of somebody being very nervous about that particular question. It's not that they're comfortable with it, they're actually nervous from it. Before we go into the Circle, because this could be a big deal for Circle as a stock, I want to look at Ethereum, because this has a huge correlation, obviously, to USDC. When you look at ETH right now, which held on pretty well, I mean, it had clipped up above $ 2, 500, now coming back down along with Bitcoin, where does ETH hold And what would you put its high in this cycle?

31:09 Yeah, well, I don't know if I had the high of the cycle right off the top of my head. On this front, Ethereum did something that a couple of the other coins did not do. Over here last week, we did come lower than levels earlier in October and September. So that was a little interesting. You can almost look at it as more of an anomaly. Same as Bitcoin, same as almost everything else. It almost feels like a broken record. The daily buy signals came in. These historically are very good daily buy signals. Again, it leads towards higher highs. I can make that same spiel for everything else.

31:39 It broke a trend line of resistance. Are we retesting it today? Absolutely. But I'm going to flash here between these two charts. Other than my boxes and drawings, there's not really a big difference in the way Ethereum and Bitcoin look. So it's going to be a very similar spot for me. My world here is going to be, let's just look at where these wicks came down to, roughly 2330. If we can stay above 2330, I'm not too concerned about Ethereum. I will tell you, this is something that last week when we had these daily sell signals, my targets, and again, we hit my target one. We did not hit my target two. My targets, oh, it went away. Let me hit this replay button. So you guys can see this. So you see what I was

32:17 looking at last week. I was looking at these two order blocks and I said, hey, 23.50 is my take profit one. And then I said, 22.50 is my take profit two. That's the lower level here. Of course, as I hit play, we took out my first one, right? So I got a good buy level there. Got some good profit on my short position. If we go short, I'll definitely be looking at 22.50 again. Could we go lower?

32:41 Probably we could, but that would be my next buy spot. But until we lose 23.30, give or take, which is the low from here a couple of days ago. I still think there's a world in which Ethereum starts to make a move back up at the very least, back to double top at 2,800, if not all the way up back up here to 3,100 is a target there.

32:59 As far as price predictions, again, I need to look at the exact numbers here. Ethereum is going to get over a trillion dollars per market cap in this next bull market, as long as it is a bull market and not another Another place where the institutions just kind of jerk us around and don't actually invest in it.

33:18 So assuming institutions actually buy this time, I think it's safe to say Ethereum would go over a trillion. I've seen estimates, Paul. I don't know about you. I've seen estimates. People are talking about as high as like $ 3 to $ 4 trillion in market cap. That's a little crazy high for me, but it would be interesting. And we do know a lot of these banks, they still like Ethereum.

33:39 JP Morgan just announced they're going to build their stablecoin through Ethereum. So, while $ 3 trillion to $ 4 trillion is a little high, could we get to $ 2 trillion, $ 2. 5 trillion? I don't think that's ridiculous, especially if Bitcoin is realistically in the $ 5 trillion to $ 7 trillion mark. What does that mean for price? I think that's somewhere between a $ 15, 000 to $ 20, 000 Ethereum, but I'd have to go back and look at the exact numbers.

34:02 Well, that's right in line with, to a certain extent, with what Tom Lee is kind of pushing to. Again, just for you guys that are new, Tom Lee is very vested in it with BM & R.

34:13 All right.

34:14 So let's take a look at Circle. I want to play a clip and then we'll kind of compare some of the leading stocks in the crypto space that could play out this cycle.

34:25 Here we go.

34:26 All right, we got to go, but really quickly before I let you go, your top pick is Circle. Talk to us about your Circle.

34:32 Yeah, our target is 243.

34:34 We are certainly above consensus there. And simply, I mean, there's a reason why there was only a handful of major payment networks. And we think the head start that they have, especially now with the Gentic Commerce, but the liquidity that they have out there and the compliant nature of their platform and now ARK coming to bear, We think that they will be a preferred settlement rail for a lot of clients out there.

35:00 All right, guys, that was Citibank talking about this. If you look at Circle in general, you go all the way to this super top around 300 bucks. Obviously, it's flying above the trend line right now. A Circle at 243, it's trading at $ 85 here.

35:17 Yeah.

35:17 What do you think, Tim? Do you like that call?

35:21 Well, the news the other day was fantastic, obviously, with the Genius Act kind of getting past the last hurdle. It's not live until January, but banks can keep banks can pretty much at this point they can offer their complaints. They can try to appeal to the Supreme Court. But ultimately, it looks like. it looks like we cleared the final hurdle and genius acts is going to allow stable coins to do their thing, which is fantastic for circle. What I'm watching right now, to me, to me, I think two 43, I don't know exactly what he's saying there in the clip. Is he saying that's his top prediction for the bull market? To me, that seems crazy low.

35:53 But for the, for the, a trading perspective, what I'm looking at right now, I do like the recent move from August and into, you know, where we are now in October, but, Let's go back to this trend line. There's clearly a red line here, a trend line of resistance. We just rejected on again yesterday. Get us above this.

36:11 Get us above 94. I do think the daily is back in a buy signal. Yeah, which is, I have to quickly look at the back history here. Pretty good. I think these daily buy signals have been pretty solid. So that's good. But for me, again, I like to buy either extreme weakness. We're not an extreme weakness. Or I want to buy strength. Strength is get above, think 96, 97 bucks, almost to 100. and you have strength there on Circle. And again, 243, we're talking about a 2.5x almost in price action, not that bad. I don't know about you, but that feels like it would be disappointing if Circle tops out at 243, and that's it.

36:49 I think Circle becomes one of the most valuable companies out there in terms of just their capacity is all going to be built around adoption on stablecoins. And the interesting point around Circle is I think they're up to some other ideas that are starting to go into fintech. The correlation to how banks are going to be utilized, obviously the connection with Ethereum, all this plays into something I think that is well under. I'm surprised that Wall Street isn't calling for a $ 1, 000 circle here because that would be a 3x from its previous high.

37:22 Now, can it do that? I think you just have a little bit of conservatism. These guys, they take– he's probably saying that's where we're going to start taking profits. They're going to look for a little dip. They'll buy again, and then they'll keep riding it up. But yeah. This is one I'd look at long term. I think $ 1, 000 is a very realistic target. All right, Tim.

37:40 So I think that's a good lineup, I think, for a lot of people that are trying to figure out the best stocks that could be played that are correlating to crypto. Of course, we're going to be covering this and a bunch more. We've got the FOMC meeting coming in next week. Tim, thanks so much for coming in today.

37:55 We appreciate it.

37:56 Absolutely. Thanks for having me, Paul.

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