Market Uncertainty Surges!🚨Inflation, War, AI🔥Bitcoin Breaking $81k?

0:00 A market shock is underway. CPI came in hot. What does that do to the market? Well, today we'll talk about it and take a look. But before we do that, I want to thank our sponsor. That's iTrust Capital, where you guys can get into your own crypto IRA, cryptocurrency stocks, gold and silver, all available over on iTrust Capital. One account, unlimited possibilities. This is one of the platforms they've been around for quite a while. You guys can go over and use them. If you have a current IRA, you can transfer that If you want to start a brand new IRA, you can also do that as well. So just use our link down below. It's going to give you a $ 100 funding reward to get started. And you're going to have to start tax planning soon. And IRAs

0:39 are one of the diversification things that you should be doing to set yourself up for success. Let's get started. I want to take a look at the first thing, which of course is the soaring energy prices that are pushing inflation higher. If you look at where the annual CPI change is, 3.7, much hotter than expected. And the issue really boils down to a couple of key areas.

1:01 One of them that is focused on is energy. Energy, of course, both fuel oil, gasoline. And of course, when you look at fuel oil in general, that's mostly diesel that's causing a lot of this. But in addition to that, Look at the list of other items on here. Airfare, non-alcoholic beverages, tobacco, hospital services. I'll talk about that in a second. Motor vehicle maintenance and repair. Used cars and trucks also up. Everything that pretty much people are looking on to on a daily basis has started to take a price hike. And that, of course, I think is one of the reasons we're seeing these CPIs come in. Remember, though, that the ACA marketplace actually got So you're essentially in a position now where medical fees are going to start

1:47 to really affect Americans. And you're seeing it right here as the enrollment, of course, has started to fall. And with that, you kind of compare just the Millman Medical Index. I'll just show you this right here. This is the comparison right there between 25 and 26 in terms of the cost. So the growth is up. This is a 7.9 percent increase right now in medical. So that is another major area. that is affecting American consumers, and it is going to be one that continues to push into the markets.

2:17 The Treasury yields, though, holding at 5.2. Now, this, of course, starting to fall after the news. We're holding now at 5.2, but this had spiked up to right there at 5.3 and settled back down. So Treasuries, 10-year Treasuries are going to be interesting to look at and how the market will decipher whether or not they're going to put in money into long-term investments. Treasuries versus playing the S & P.

2:41 When you look at fixed-year mortgages, this is another problem, and that is this recent hike. If you go right here, you'll see it right there from March of 2026 at 6.22, expanding to where we're holding right now at 7.25. Let me kind of show you that a little closer. That's the range that we're talking about. This is a big deal when you're talking about even a $ 200, 000 home, much less what we look on the national median, which is setting it around $ 500, 000 to $ 600, 000. So huge implications for mortgage.

3:13 That means real estate sales potentially could slow as well. This, of course, gets into the Fed decision. We'll look at October over here on PolyMarket. Right now, no change hovering around 66% after this somewhat bounces, even though it was right there holding on a no change and a potential quarter point. But right now, setting in at no change.

3:35 If you look at December, this gets even higher now, but it's going the other way. Now we're talking about a 25 basis points change. And some people are pointing to that this could actually be multiple rate hikes before the end of the year. And of course, we only have two FOMC meetings available to us, the November meeting or the December meeting and then the October meeting. And then, of course, we go into late January on the 27th.

4:01 If you look at January, let's take a look there. The dip right there is on no change, but right now still holding a quarter basis points in January at 60 and 43%. respectively. So consider that right now and where this plays into the market. So let's take a look at where the hikes are standing right now. There is a 33 percent chance of three quarter points hikes.

4:28 This is insane because for that right now, I mean, it looks like two 50 basis points total would be the primary holding it right now at about 67 percent. The three, though, would be significant if that actually happens. So be aware that not only is this starting to play into the market, now we've got inflation starting to trigger a lot of very key things. And remember, this time of year, not only for energy but also for retail because we go into the holiday season, and I'll talk about that in a second. But here's energy right here climbing off of the $ 88 low when it came to just regular crude oil. up to where it's spiking right now at 95, so a barrel. So this is an issue that I think is going to continue to

5:13 be a problem because of the number of fronts that we have right now that are in oil-producing regions of the world. And one of them, of course, is what's happening in Saudi, and that is the first time Aramco, this is one of the biggest oil companies, the biggest oil company in the world, their corporate headquarters has been hit. This, of course, coming in from the Houthis, And that, of course, is just one of many. You also have Iran, which had its first vessel sunk in the war, and this came through a mine. And, of course, what does it have?

5:46 It's got a bunch of luxury perfumes and iPhones sitting in the straight. This is insane. And it gets worse, guys. It gets worse. Ukraine also striking oil depots. This, of course, changes the game for both what's happening with Russia. Trump is over there trying to deal with this. We are in a mess here when it comes to energy costs.

6:08 And this is the thing that concerns me the most as this plays into 2027, because it does not appear that there is a way out of these. So big issues. Let's take a look at what's going to happen in the Senate. Democratic Party still holding the lead at 64 percent. A lot of people saying that this may not be right. Now, you tell me, do you think we're going to see a blue wave coming into our Capitol? Let me know in the comments, because right now the House is pretty much lost. The Senate holding a 64 percent Democratic advantage.

6:42 So taking over. There's some key states. that you'll need to watch because this could start to flip things dramatically, not only for this midterm, but where it starts to play into the next presidential election, which is going to be huge, I think, for the markets. The other thing that could really pivot the markets is what's happening in AI.

7:01 OpenAI's revenue reportedly 20 billion lower than everyone thought. And of course, NVIDIA just lost 170 billion. You look at the impact of where AI is right now, what we're most likely going to see with the Anthropic IPO, and the pressure that the market is continually taking. And the point is, if you look at NVIDIA, Oracle, CoreWeave, and other AI stocks right now, all of them are sinking on this. So imagine if there is any other bad news that gets uncovered out of OpenAI or Anthropic, what kind of impact that could have here on the overall market.

7:38 So let's also take a look at the chip side of things, semiconductors. Right here is China's CXMT. This is in reference to their memory advances ahead of Samsung and SK Hynix. And understand that, and I'll show you here on the chart here in a second, these are the supply side of what's happening with a lot of the hyperscalers and what's happening with a lot of the AI companies in general. And all of the companies that that correlate and build around AI. So a huge impact overall.

8:09 If you look at CXMT, that's the chart right there on the weekly. Let me go to the daily. This is the downtrend that we're seeing on CXMT, biggest Chinese maker right there. SK Hynix also falling dramatically. And then you can even go up here to Micron. Micron also coming down to 923 off of over 1,000, almost 1,100.

8:31 So this is starting to trickle its way into the market. The question is, how does this play out for the rest of the year? I've got a clip from Paul Tudor Jones, who talks about this. Take a look.

8:43 For me, the most interesting thing, and it's hard for me to see much beyond December 31, because that's going to be really important, obviously, for a fund. If you kind of just go back and look at midterm cycles, a whole variety of things, it would tell you that we should have a Really, really strong fourth quarter coming out of the midterms. The market typically bottoms sometime late October, early November. And then you get the fourth quarter push.

9:10 At the same time, 2027 is going to be really, really challenging for the stock market. Because if I just look at the flows, the most negative flow picture is for the US stock market that we've had, say, since 2002.

9:27 And by that, I mean, we sum.

9:30 Up all the buybacks, M & A, all the positive things that has powered this market. And then I subtract from that the IPOs, secondaries, unlocks, et cetera. Then you've got certainly the most negative flow picture since 2009. The $ 2 trillion SpaceX, the coming Anthropic and OpenAI, It shifts the math and makes it more difficult for the markets.

9:58 All right. So you could take this two ways. One, you could look at it and say there are two sides of the market right now. You have Paul Tudor Jones, very defensive. Then you have someone like a Tom Lee, who's very offensive, saying that we are going to see one of the biggest bull runs ever. Many people are still hesitant right now on the AI trade, as am I, a little cautious. I am still bullish in the market in general, but there are some key support zones. If you look at Bitcoin and kind of compare of where it could be going right now, confidence level, medium, I would say that's about right for me. The area that I'm targeting right now is right around $ 81, 000. And I would agree with this. Key resistance setting up at $ 84, 000

10:40 and $ 85, 000. 84.5. So you've got the CPI numbers who would come in on this. The question will be if AI starts to falter, do risk assets get the play here? Do we get a bid within some of these risk assets? Some of the big hits may be some of the altcoins. So be on the lookout for that, guys, as we start to play into this. The other thing that's getting hit right now is the ETFs. So you've got Bitcoin getting a little bit of move right there. ETH also bleeding somewhat, slight amount going in here recently. Solana also bleeding.

11:15 And then you go into XRP and it's been like nothing for almost a week in terms of flows. This is not good for the big four when it comes to ETFs. And I think this is something that many people are looking at right now is risk in a position where you can look at entry points or are you waiting for something else? Let me know what you guys think. Is Bitcoin going to go back to, say, 75K if, in fact, we continue to see this pressure that comes in on the market? If we get a rate hike, that could be an issue overall. Gold and silver, they're not out of the weeds either. You've got gold and silver prices dumping after all of this, especially when it comes to higher than expected inflation, and this wipes

11:57 out a combined 700% billion. So guys, this is getting a little crazy in the market. Crypto fear and greed. This gets interesting here because you're sitting at 51 right now. Not a good position really in general. I think this is much more bearish at present than what it's stating in the markets. I'm watching this very closely because if we see any kind of major dump on Bitcoin, this could start to send the market a little bit lower overall.

12:27 Let's take a look at this right here because this is another area that I'm slightly concerned with is a possible tariff surprise. China's trade surplus hits $ 983 billion for January through September. Hopefully, we don't get Besson and Trump going in and doing another one, but it's possible. So pressure is now ramped up from its other trading partners, including the EU, to rebalance. So if the EU is doing it, it's going to give cover fire, I think, for the administration to possibly try to pull something off there.

12:54 So be on the lookout. Consumer confidence. Guys, this is the lowest been since we saw what back in pre-COVID times. So not something that I think consumers are looking at in general. You have U.S. holiday spending expected to dip right now. And there's a couple of areas that you have to look at right here. Three quarters of households are now expecting to adopt a money saving measure during the holiday season. Basically, spending less. So if that's with you and you look at what the rest of the market is doing from a consumer aspect, what's happening in AI, and of course, what's happening in the aspect of energy and just inflation in general, this is going to get a little tight. Let's go into other news in crypto.

13:40 And one of the biggest news items right now is what's happening at Ledger. Ledger devices are now being taken off product shelves. This is a problem because now you're talking about all of Asia. It seems like the entire Southeast Asia and Pacific Rim, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Hong Kong. This is not good for, I think, crypto in general, especially self-custody. If you are using these kinds of devices, what is keeping this from happening in other major countries, including the West? That is what I'm watching very closely right now, guys. I just I recommend that you get off of those kinds of devices, go into something that is more secure, whether you look at Tangim, even some of the software wallets. Dare you go into

14:26 central custody, but if possible, you've got to be able to look at some alternatives here. So a big issue overall. You also have Bank of America. Speaking of central, this is crazy. I mean, the news is just out of control today. Bank of America crashes 8%. It was fined $ 1. 2 billion for money laundering by the U.S., and it was with...

14:46 what was happening in the Southwest. So it means likely coming through Mexico and also China. That was what FinCEN reported. So some of these things didn't get hit. But I want you to understand, you think this might be good because these guys, they had it coming to them, right? No, I think this hits Americans again because the banks are not going to pay this out of profits. They're going to essentially charge their depositors And they've got 37 million depositors, checking accounts, another almost 5 million business accounts. Watch out for that because that's the thing I'm concerned with is fee hikes to deal with these kind of things. So I don't know if you're a B of A customer.

15:27 Hopefully you're not. Solana, of course, got big in China. They actually took over a tower. It was the city tower. And there you have it. I never thought I would see this. But there it is. Solana in China. amazing, amazing stuff happening globally. Kraken decided, let's just go ahead and do something that nobody's expecting. And that is they went out and acquired their own European bank. So Kraken on the move in terms of just trying to deal, if you can't beat them, let's go ahead and join them kind of thing and reset up how the potential of a crypto bank might look like. I'm still expecting more of this kind of activity. I don't think we're going to see it the other way around where banks are acquiring crypto companies. I think it is going to

16:09 be crypto companies acquiring financial institutions. So let's end this on a positive note, because I think there are some things in the market that are looking up. And here's one of them that we're going to be watching very closely, and that is the SEC's token offering exemptions. All of this ends on the 20th. What happens is, is the SEC made those rules, the market pumped, you saw that.

16:33 And right now you've got that time in terms of dealing with comment structures that companies would come in and try to add to or take away. All of that is over next week, so public comment out the window. The key here is this. Once that goes through on the 20th and the SEC says, okay, that's the law of the land under our guise, what we're going to administer with the CFTC following suit as well, you're going to see and be ready a slew of announcements coming out.

17:04 Look at crypto Twitter. You're going to see announcement after announcement coming out after this. If this gets locked in as it is right now, which means we could see a mini pump coming off of these news items right here. So be on the lookout for that. That happens on the 20th. We'll bring some more information to you about that because I think there's going to be some key projects that start to release some big news. Before we get out of here, let's take a look at the charts.

17:28 You've got Bitcoin holding at 81.6 right now on the daily. This 81 is a key point right now, guys, before we potentially see a pushback. I hope we don't see this push back down to 75, but that is something that we're watching. ETH holding at 2433, kind of in the same window, which could push us back down literally into sub 2000 on Ethereum. And then if you look at Solana nipping back down to 104, that 100 is the one that I am concerned with and not concerned.

17:59 It's just a point of long-term holding where you get a chance to maybe reenter an asset like this. It's actually good for some of you who maybe have not purchased some of these assets out there. Avalanche back down under $ 10. 00. You've also got Uniswap absolutely skyrocketed all the way up to what was around $ 10. 90, almost $ 11, and has retraced back down to $ 7. 14. And some of the others we're watching, Ondo right there, slightly up and then sliding down. Joop also on the news for today. Most of these assets are obviously being affected by the inflation number.

18:34 So there you have it. Gold right there, $ 4K. Silver holding at $ 55, back to its base. This is going to be rough times for metals until we see some adjustments here into the markets. We're going to cover this and a lot more, so stay tuned for that. If you like this video, hit like and subscribe, drop a comment down below, and also join our free private member group.

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