U.S.-India Relations Under Stress, With Sadanand Dhume

U.S.-India relations have struggled despite U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s close personal relationship. This episode unpacks why tariffs, security concerns, and a détente with China has reframed the importance of the relationship, and what it could take to put it back on track.

Host:

James M. Lindsay (cfr.org/experts/james-m-lindsay), Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:

Sadanand Dhume (cfr.org/experts/sadanand-dhume), Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia, CFR

We Discuss:

• Why U.S.-India relations have been uncertain since mid-2025 after having slowly strengthened over many years.

• How the second Trump administration’s early actions and India’s multipolar diplomacy forced substantive confrontations thatTrump and Modi’s personal relationship could not overcome.

• Why U.S.-India trade negotiations stalled and the Trump administration imposed tariffs, despite India repeatedly offering concessions.

• How the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict and Trump’s claim of forcing a ceasefire put Modi in a domestic political bind.

• How Pakistan’s prominent role in brokering the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has amplified Indian anxieties about a U.S.-Pakistan thaw.

• Why Trump’s talk of a Group of Two with China undermines its strategic desire to strengthen India as a counterweight to Chinese power.

• What the state of the Quad—an informal security dialogue among the United States, Australia, India, and Japan—and the United States’ de-emphasis of the Indo-Pacific framework reveal about U.S. strategy in Asia.

• How Modi is normalizing ties with China and whether there is a limit to normalization given the Himalayan border dispute and China’s efforts to constrain India’s growth.

• How India’s dependence on Russian arms has fallen over time, and why India is increasingly skeptical that Russia can act independently of China.

• Why Modi has resisted domestic political pressure to challenge Trump, and what that restraint reveals about India’s calculation of its long-term national interest.

• Where the greatest opportunity lies to rebuild the U.S.-India relationship, and why tech cooperation and Silicon Valley represent the most natural and promising place to start.

Mentioned in the Episode:

“How People in 24 Countries View India (pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/08/13/how-peo…),” Pew Research Center

Mathew George, Katarina Djokic, Zain Hussain, Pieter D. Wezeman, and Siemon T. Wezeman, “Trends In International Arms Transfers, 2024 (sipri.org/sites/default/files/2025-03/fs_2503_…),” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/the-myth-of-…

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.