Why Allies Aren’t Following on Iran, With Kristi Govella and Constanze Stelzenmüller

We discuss:

• Why U.S. allies are refusing to join the Iran war, and what that signals about weakening alliance cohesion and growing strategic independence.

• How the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil flows, is already reshaping the global economy and raising the stakes for every U.S. partner.

• Europe’s balancing act, publicly rejecting the war while quietly enabling U.S. operations through military bases.

• Japan’s pragmatic hedging, supporting the U.S. diplomatically while using constitutional limits to avoid direct military involvement.

• The cascading global risks of the conflict, from energy shocks and inflation to refugee flows and rising geopolitical instability.

• The long-term erosion of U.S. soft power, especially among younger generations in Europe and shifting public sentiment in Japan.

Mentioned on the Episode:

“Vice President JD Vance Delivers Remarks at the Munich Security Conference (whitehouse.gov/videos/vice-president-jd-vance-…),” The White House

“Secretary of State Marco Rubio Delivers Remarks to the Munich Security Conference (ch.usembassy.gov/secretary-of-state-marco-rubi…),” U.S. Embassy in Switzerland and Liechtenstein

“G7 Statement on Support to Partners in the Middle East (mofa.go.jp/press/release/pressite_000001_02199…),” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/why-allies-a…

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.