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Different Kinds of BS
Jeff Bezos once said there are different kinds of smart. Distinguishing the various flavors is important because if you think smarts comes in just one form, you’ll miss dozens of other nuanced varieties. BS is the same. It comes in countles
Quiet Compounding
"Nature is not in a hurry, yet everything is accomplished,” said Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu. Giant sequoias, advanced organisms, towering mountains – it builds the most jaw-dropping features of the universe. And it does so silently, where
History's Seductive Beliefs
My deepest forecasting belief is that you can better understand the future if you focus on the behaviors that never change instead of the events that might. And those behaviors have a common denominator: They follow the path of least resist
Lazy Work, Good Work
The most productive work you can do often looks like the laziest -- but it can be hard to accept that because of how the workplace has changed over the last 100 years.
The Long Run Is Just A Collection of Short Runs
Every great idea can be taken too far. Take the notion that investors should ignore the short run. It's important to recognize that the long run is just a collection of short runs, and capturing long-term growth means managing the short run
The Best Financial Advice I Know (What I Want My Kids To Learn)
I wrote letters to both of my kids the day before they were born. Here's what I wanted them to know about money. And even if you don't have, or want, kids, I think you'll find this helpful.
Realistic Personal Finance Hacks
Hacks are hard because shortcuts rarely exist. Prizes take time and effort. The personal finance industry – filled with advice that sounds and feels good without moving the needle – needs to recognize this. These aren’t fun hacks, but no on
Lucky vs. Repeatable
Luck plays such a big role in the world. But few people want to talk about it. If I say you got lucky, I look jealous. If I tell myself that I got lucky, I feel diminished. Maybe a better way to frame luck is by asking: what isn’t repeatabl
No One Is Crazy
The fun part of behavioral finance is learning about how flawed other people can be. The hard part is trying to figure out how flawed you are, and what stories make sense to you but would seem crazy to others.
Accountable to Darwin vs. Accountable to Newton
Woodrow Wilson was the only president with a Ph.D. in political science. He came to office having thought more about how a government functions than most before him or since. One of his complaints was that too many people in government held
The Dumber Side of Smart People
Mae West said, “Too much of a good thing can be wonderful.” That might be true for some things – health, happiness, golden retrievers, maybe. But in so many cases the thing that helps you can be taken to a dangerous level. And since it’s a
How to Engage With History
This episode discusses my take on what you should pay attention to when reading history. There’s a quote I love from writer Kelly Hayes who says, “Everything feels unprecedented when you haven’t engaged with history.” It’s so true. History’
Compounding Optimism
Let me share a little theory I have about optimism, and why progress is so easy to underestimate. I’ll explain it in four parts.
A Few Thoughts on Spending Money
Behavioral finance is now well documented. But most of the attention goes to how people invest. But the study of how you spend money might be far more interesting -- and practical. How you spend money can reveal an existential struggle of w
Information That Would Get Your Attention
There’s obviously a hierarchy of information. It ranges from life-changing good to life-changing disastrous. That got me thinking: What would be the most interesting and useful information anyone could get their hands on? Years ago I asked
Active vs. Passive Learning
There are two big ways to learn: Active learning: Someone tells you what to learn, how to learn it, on a set schedule, on pre-selected standardized topics. Passive learning: You let your mind wander with no intended destination. You read an
Respect Each Others’ Delusions
One sentence that knocked me off my feet when I read Will and Ariel Durant’s The Lessons of History was: "Learn enough from history to bear reality patiently, and respect one another’s delusions." I love that so much. The key here is accept
The 10 Most Important Financial Skills
My wife recently bought me an old book. It's called The Mathematical Theory of Investment. It was written in 1913 and it's as dry and boring as it sounds (but the old weathered cover looks awesome on a bookshelf). I flipped through it and t
Expiring vs. Permanent Skills
Expiring skills tend to get more attention. They’re more likely to be the cool new thing, and a key driver of an industry’s short-term performance. They’re what employers value and employees flaunt. Permanent skills are different. They’ve b
My New Book, Same As Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes
My new book, Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes, is out today. Books are hard, a multi-year slog from start to finish. But I’m excited for you to read this. I think it’s the best writing I’ve ever done. And it was fun to write! My
Justifying Optimism
All optimistic beliefs can be dangerous because they’re so comforting, so easy to accept without asking further questions. Hope often masquerades as optimism when you think things will improve only because the alternative is too scary to co
Little Flaws
Daniel Kahneman says, "The long-term success of a relationship depends far more on avoiding the negative than on seeking the positive." It's like that in so many areas of life. Most people know what they're good at, or at least they think t
A Few Laws of Getting Rich
Measuring wealth is easy. You just count it up. Measuring some of the downsides of wealth is so much harder and more nuanced. They can be so nuanced and hard to measure that many people won’t even believe they exist. A downside to wealth? H
Death, Taxes, and a Few Other Things
My new book, Same As Ever, comes out in a month. It's about things that never change -- what's always happened in the world, and will keep repeating again and again? This episode shares five examples.
Respect and Admiration
Just after my son was born I wrote a few things I thought he’d find helpful as an adult. One of them was: "You might think you want an expensive car, a fancy watch, and a huge house. But I’m telling you, you don’t. What you want is respect
Trying Too Hard
A truth that applies to almost every field is that it’s possible to try too hard, and when doing so you can get worse results than those who knew less, cared less, and put in less effort than you did. There are mistakes that only an expert
Intelligence vs. Smarts
This episode is about the difference between intelligence and smarts, and why one is valued more than the other despite being less useful in the world. The core here is realizing that people are not spreadsheets. They are emotional, hormona
Fluke -- A Story About How Fragile The World Can Be
This is a short personal story about a fluke event 16 years ago that changed everything in my life. You probably have a similar story, and there is so much to learn about how everything can change from an event you never saw coming.
