Episode 391: How Assumptions Shape Financial Planning Outcomes

Financial planning is built on assumptions — about markets, inflation, longevity, human behaviour, and even the questions clients bring into the room. In this episode, Ben and Braden welcome a diverse panel that originally came together at the FP Canada Conference to explore how those assumptions influence planning outcomes in practice. Joining them are Adam Chapman, a retirement-focused planner who helps clients turn their money into memories; Joe Nunes, an actuary with decades of pension and longevity experience; and Aaron Theilade, Director of Continuing Education at FP Canada. Together, the panel unpacks how to make assumptions credible, how to stress-test them, how to navigate client bias, and how planners can blend math with humanity to create better client outcomes.

Key Points From This Episode:
(0:00:04) Why this episode: recreating a conference panel on planning assumptions.
(0:01:03) Braden on the panel's value for planners and DIY investors.
(0:02:32) Meet the guests: Adam, Joe, Aaron, and Braden.
(0:06:04) Assumptions matter: directional accuracy > prediction.
(0:07:47) Actuarial view: start with inflation, bond yields, and risk capacity.
(0:09:38) Engineering mindset: plan for expected and unexpected outcomes.
(0:13:21) Client pushback: longevity surprises and hidden assumptions.
(0:16:59) Asset allocation: strategic, goal-based, informed by behaviour.
(0:20:57) Software limits: life is too variable for perfect modeling.
(0:22:01) Behaviour gap: retirees spend less over time despite inflation.
(0:25:18) Software guides; planners interpret and humanize outputs.
(0:28:48) Use assumptions based on the specific question (e.g., withdrawals).
(0:30:31) Always ask: "Why are we modeling this?"
(0:34:15) Handling bias: reframe assumptions to reveal inconsistencies.
(0:38:19) Assumptions evolve: returns, spending, and research all change.
(0:42:38) Longevity beliefs: explore "why," not just the data.
(0:50:38) Core truth: every plan is wrong — planning is iterative.
(0:52:20) When to update: depends on age, goals, and material changes.
(0:57:23) PWL approach: twice-yearly updates + adjustments during extremes.
(1:00:03) Tips: focus on behaviour, communication, goals, and integration.
(1:10:02) Success: relationships, impact, freedom, and sharing knowledge.

Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p
Rational Reminder on iTunes — itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-remin…. Rational Reminder on Instagram — instagram.com/rationalreminder
Rational Reminder on YouTube — youtube.com/channel Benjamin Felix — pwlcapital.com/our-team
Benjamin on X — x.com/benjaminwfelix
Benjamin on LinkedIn — linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (thepodcastconsultant.com)