Airtable's 80% off value crash: VCs explain why it's still a win | E2321

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Today's show:
*Airtable just sold for $2.25 billion, an 81% drop from its peak of $11.7 billion. On this week's TWiST VC Roundtable, Aditya Agarwal (South Park Commons), Niko Bonatsos (Verdict Capital), and Rick Heitzmann (FirstMark Capital) break down why the venture world sees this as a good outcome, not a financial disaster.
By declining the deal, would Airtable's team have just been delaying the inevitable? Is the fact that they reached $400M+ ARR on its own a reason to celebrate? Find out why our investor panel prefers unwinding a stuck situation rather than chasing a growth rate that's no longer sustainable.
PLUS Robinhood's booming prediction market business, the secondary market flap over Anduril shares, why so many VCs shy away from "vice" categories, and a glimpse at how insiders are talking about the Apple-OpenAI lawsuit.
Guests
Aditya Agarwal on X: x.com/adityaag
South Park Commons: southparkcommons.com/apply
Niko Bonatsos on X: x.com/bonatsos
Verdict Capital: verdictcap.com
Rick Heitzmann on X: x.com/rick
FirstMark Capital: firstmark.com
Relevant Links
Airtable: airtable.com
Bending Spoons announces Airtable acquisition: investors.bendingspoons.com/newsroom/bending-s…
Constellation Software: The Anti-Conglomerate: eaglepointcap.com/blog/constellation-software-…
Introducing Robinhood Ventures Fund II: robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/introducing-rvii
Quartz: Robinhood posted record quarterly revenue: qz.com/robinhood-record-revenue-prediction-mar…
Riot Games: riotgames.com/en
AngelList's USVC Fund: usvc.com
Baseten: baseten.co
OpenEvidence: openevidence.com
Hermes Agent: hermes-agent.org
Granola: granola.ai
Timestamps:
0:00 VC intros & Bending Spoons buys Airtable
9:19 Why growth is the only metric that matters
9:45 Vanta - Get $1000 off your SOC 2 at vanta.com/twist
20:52 Agree.com - Stop chasing invoices and automate your entire contract-to-cash stack. Go to agree.com and tell them Jason sent you to get 50% off for life!
26:25 When should VCs sell in secondary markets?
30:55 Odoo - The all-in-one business platform. Get started for free at Odoo.com/twist
35:38 Robinhood's prediction markets are exploding
43:13 The USVC-Anduril secondary controversy
46:18 How VC firms use open source models
58:43 Telling the real founders from the grifters
1:02:38 Why Apple is suing OpenAI
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