GM93: The Calm Before a Systemic Reckoning ft. William White

William White returns to assess a world edging closer to systemic stress. Drawing on decades advising central banks, he describes a macro regime defined not by temporary shocks, but by a deep reversal of the forces that once kept inflation low and debt manageable. From de-globalization and demographic decline to energy constraints and fragile supply chains, the conversation traces how rising costs collide with record public and private leverage. White warns that policy makers are trapped between inflationary pressures and debt sustainability, with no clean exit in sight. The discussion closes on AI, currency fragmentation, and the uncomfortable possibility that today’s stability masks a far more dangerous future.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why unchecked booms become more dangerous over time
01:37 - Setting the stage for a new global macro regime
03:53 - From disinflation to persistent inflation pressure
07:10 - Supply side forces reversing after decades of support
12:07 - Debt accumulation and unintended policy consequences
13:03 - Why higher rates did not trigger an immediate crisis
18:53 - Debt dynamics and the problem of sustainability
19:57 - Tipping points and the psychology of market breaks
26:40 - What happens when trust in central banks erodes
35:51 - AI optimism and the risk of large scale malinvestment
39:44 - Lessons from financial history and false starts
41:08 - Why economic models failed to see this coming
48:32 - The dollar, fragmentation, and global currency shifts
57:56 - Europe’s opportunity and its unresolved risks
01:03:24 - Complexity, politics, and why forecasting breaks down
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