SI415: Maybe This Is Just What Normal Markets Look Like ft. Alan Dunne

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne examine how a changing macro regime is reshaping markets and the role of trend following. They discuss unusual U.S. intervention in the yen, mounting sensitivity around Treasury yields, and questions surrounding Kevin Warsh’s communication and the Fed’s credibility. Alan identifies three fractures defining the new regime: persistent inflation, growing debt sustainability concerns, and the erosion of institutional norms. They also explore why trend following has performed differently this decade, particularly during periods of bond market stress, before comparing AQR and GMO’s strikingly different long-term return assumptions and what they imply for portfolio construction.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
- CLICK HERE (toptradersunplugged.com/tf-manifesto-launch-ca…)
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter (twitter.com/toptraderslive), LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen), YouTube (youtube.com/user/toptraderslive) or via the TTU website (toptradersunplugged.com).
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here (toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate).
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here (toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes).
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here (toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends).
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes (toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu) or Spotify (open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW) so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter (twitter.com/alanjdunne).
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and what’s been on Alan’s radar
01:55 - Why U.S. intervention in the yen matters
07:04 - Zuckerberg, Meta and the $16.68 billion question
08:31 - August trend following performance and market intervention
12:16 - Why CTA performance is increasingly dispersed
16:08 - Kevin Warsh, the Fed balance sheet and Treasury supply
18:56 - Has short-term trend following structurally degraded?
22:17 - Macro narratives versus systematic positioning
24:37 - Fed communication, credibility and the Warsh reaction function
30:16 - Bessent, Warsh, Druckenmiller and the battle over bond yields
34:23 - The three fractures reshaping the macro regime
41:42 - How trend following has changed in the new regime
49:54 - Commodities, deglobalization and diversification
52:29 - AQR versus GMO: radically different forecasts for future returns
01:02:08 - Debt sustainability and what investors should watch next
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here (toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks)
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here (toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends)
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here (toptradersunplugged.com/resources)
Privacy Policy (toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy)
Disclaimer (toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer)