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Markets are not stable systems. They evolve, adapt, and quietly erode the edges traders rely on. In this episode, Toby Crabel reflects on decades of experience navigating that reality, from the early days of Opening Range Breakout strategies to today’s fragmented and highly competitive landscape. He explains why momentum behaves differently now, how liquidity has shifted across sessions, and why execution has become a defining edge. The conversation also explores the limits of AI, the persistence of technical principles, and the importance of adapting without overfitting. At its core, this is a discussion about humility, uncertainty, and staying relevant as markets change.
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Episode Timestamps:
- Markets are probabilistic and inherently uncertain
- Introduction to Toby Crabel and his career
- From tennis to trading and early market exposure
- Opening range breakout and early momentum edge
- Why momentum strategies have deteriorated over time
- The disappearance of the “open” in modern markets
- Are markets changing or just the participants
- Liquidity events and large player behavior
- The role and limits of technical analysis
- Model decay and adapting systematic strategies
- Execution as a primary source of edge
- AI, automation, and the future of trading
- Effort vs result and the meaning of volume
- Are we entering a 1970s style macro regime?
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