UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The policy-induced recession risk'

Crude oil prices and diesel prices are up (there seems to be uncertainty about whether last Friday’s pledge to release diesel reserves is actually just confirming previously announced reserve releases). Bonds and equities do not like this. Central banks have pretended that they can do something about oil prices, which worries investors. If central banks want to offset inflation from an oil shock, they need to create a recession (or near recession) in the non-oil economy via aggressively restrictive policy. That does not favor bonds or equities.