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Robert Caro – The master biographer reflects at 91
The Robert Caro interview. Watch on YouTube (https://youtu.be/7lSOI21E68g); read the transcript (https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/robert-caro). Sponsors * Antithesis (https://antithesis.com/dwarkesh) lets you run thorough simulation tests on ever
What I learned about power from LBJ and Robert Moses
I recently got to interview Robert Caro, who is my favorite author of all time. This gave me the excuse to reread his biographies of Lyndon Johnson and Robert Moses, and to compile my prep notes into this video essay. These guys pulled off
What will computer chips look like in 2045?
I spent two days touring Intel’s most advanced fab and talking to its technical leadership to understand what the chips of the future will look like. A lot of what's coming next – gate-all-around transistors, backside power, CFET, hybrid bo
Si Sheppard – How did a few hundred Spanish soldiers topple two empires?
New episode with military historian Si Sheppard (https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B001JSA7E6/allbooks). The conquests of the Aztec and Inca empires might be the most shocking events in human history. Hernan Cortés and some hundreds of C
Noam Brown – Agent swarms, alignment, & recursive self-improvement
New episode with Noam Brown. We talk about multi-agent, Navier-Stokes, and what the current explosion of maths progress tells us about what happens once you automate AI research. And we also discuss how we will know if the models are actual
AI researchers debate how close we are to recursive self-improvement
New episode with John Schulman (http://joschu.net/), Beren Millidge (https://www.beren.io/) and Charlie O’Neill (https://charlesponeill.com/). I got together with some of the most insightful AI researchers I know who are at the openish comp
Ajeya Cotra – Inside the OpenAI agent swarm that hacked Hugging Face
Ajeya Cotra (https://x.com/ajeya_cotra) is a researcher at METR, where she works on threat modeling for loss-of-control risks from advanced AI. Before that, she led the technical AI safety program at what is now Coefficient Giving. She is o
The rise and fall of agent civilizations
This is a video recording of a post I wrote last week. You can read the original here (https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/openai-huggingface). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus
Dylan Patel – Anthropic & OpenAI will have most of the world’s compute by 2028
Had a lot of fun chatting again with my twin brother Dylan Patel. We went through lab economics over the next few years - the shift from inference to training as RSI draws near; and how Anthropic and OpenAI are on track to control most of t
Ryan Greenblatt – What happens once AI can automate AI research?
Ryan Greenblatt is the Chief Scientist at Redwood Research, where he works on technical AI safety research. He's also lead author on the "Alignment faking in Large Language Models", and is currently working on a third party investigation in
8 Predictions for the Era of Continual Learning
Read the essay here (https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/era-of-continual-learning). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://www.dwarkesh.com?utm_medium=podcas
Why smarter AI models could drive up compute prices 10x
This is a video recording of a post I wrote last week. If you want to read the original you can check it out here (https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/why-compute-might-get-10x-more-expensive). Thanks to Mercury (https://mercury.com/command) for spo
Adam Brown – A deep but accessible introduction to general relativity
Adam Brown is back! General relativity is said to be the most beautiful idea the human mind has ever produced. Most of us will never get to fully appreciate its elegance by taking the 20-lecture graduate course Adam taught on it at Stanford
Grant Sanderson – AI and the future of math
Always so much fun to chat with Grant (https://www.youtube.com/c/3blue1brown). AI has been making much faster progress in math than in other fields. As a result, mathematics is showing us, very concretely, what AI progress in other fields w
The next big breakthrough will be AIs learning on the job
Read it here (https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/the-next-paradigm). Thanks to Mercury for sponsoring this essay. Mercury (https://mercury.com/) has automated basically my entire bill pay process for my business. I just give contractors a dedicated
The data black hole at the center of AI
Read the transcript (https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/the-sample-efficiency-black-hole-2) here. Thanks to Mercury (https://mercury.com) for sponsoring this essay! Mercury just released a new feature called Command, which gives me AI right in my b
Ada Palmer – Machiavelli is the most misunderstood thinker of all time
Had Ada Palmer back on – this time to talk about Machiavelli, perhaps the most misunderstood thinker of all time. Machiavelli cut his teeth as a high-level diplomat for Florence, a position from which he got to closely observe the most impo
Alex Imas and Phil Trammell – What remains scarce after AGI?
Economics of AGI episode w Alex Imas (https://www.aleximas.com/) and Phil Trammell (https://philiptrammell.com/). There’s a bunch of important questions about how we deal with AI that only economics can answer. What is the optimal way to ta
Reiner Pope – Chip design from the bottom up
New blackboard lecture with Reiner Pope: how do chips actually work - starting with basic logic gates, and working up to why GPUs, TPUs, FPGAs, and the human brain each look the way they do. Reiner (https://reiner.org/) is CEO of MatX (http
Eric Jang – Building AlphaGo from scratch
Eric Jang (https://evjang.com/) walks through how to build AlphaGo from scratch, but with modern AI tools. Sometimes you understand the future better by stepping backward. AlphaGo is still the cleanest worked example of the primitives of in
David Reich – Why the Bronze Age was an inflection point in human evolution
David Reich (https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/) is back. He and collaborator Ali Akbari (https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/people/ali-akbari) just published a paper (https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/sites/reich.hms.harvard.edu/files/inline-files/2026
Reiner Pope – The math behind how LLMs are trained and served
Did a very different format with Reiner Pope - a blackboard lecture where he walks through how frontier LLMs are trained and served. It’s shocking how much you can deduce about what the labs are doing from a handful of equations, public API
Jensen Huang – TPU competition, why we should sell chips to China, & Nvidia’s supply chain moat
I asked Jensen about TPU competition, Nvidia’s lock on the ever more bottlenecked supply chain needed to make advanced chips, whether we should be selling AI chips to China, why Nvidia doesn’t just become a hyperscaler, how it makes its inv
Michael Nielsen – How science actually progresses
Really enjoyed chatting with Michael Nielsen about how we recognize scientific progress. It's especially relevant for closing the RL verification loop for scientific discovery. But it's also a surprisingly mysterious and elusive question wh
Terence Tao – Kepler, Newton, and the true nature of mathematical discovery
We begin the episode with the absolutely ingenious and surprising way in which Kepler discovered the laws of planetary motion. People sometimes say that AI will make especially fast progress at scientific discovery because of tight verifica
Dylan Patel — Deep dive on the 3 big bottlenecks to scaling AI compute
Dylan Patel (https://x.com/dylan522p?lang=en), founder of SemiAnalysis (https://semianalysis.com/), provides a deep dive into the 3 big bottlenecks to scaling AI compute: logic, memory, and power. And walks through the economics of labs, hy
The most important question nobody's asking about AI
Read the full essay here: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dow-anthropic Timestamps (00:00:00) - Anthropic vs The Pentagon (00:04:16) - The overhangs of tyranny (00:05:54) - AI structurally favors mass surveillance (00:08:25) - Alignment...to who
Why Leonardo was a saboteur, Gutenberg went broke, and Florence was weird – Ada Palmer
Renaissance history is so much wilder and weirder than you would have expected. Very fun chatting with Ada Palmer (https://www.adapalmer.com/) (historian, novelist, and composer based at the University of Chicago). Some especially fascinati
Dario Amodei — "We are near the end of the exponential"
Dario Amodei thinks we are just a few years away from AGI — or as he puts it, from having “a country of geniuses in a data center”. In this episode, we discuss what to make of the scaling hypothesis in the current RL regime, why task-specif
Elon Musk — "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
In this episode, John and I got to do a real deep-dive with Elon. We discuss the economics of orbital data centers, the difficulties of scaling power on Earth, what it would take to manufacture humanoids at high-volume in America, xAI’s bus
