Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner

I’ve had a lot of discussions on my podcast (youtube.com/@DwarkeshPatel) where we haggle out timelines to AGI. Some guests think it’s 20 years away (dwarkesh.com/p/ege-tamay) - others 2 years (dwarkesh.com/p/scott-daniel).
Here’s an audio version of where my thoughts stand as of June 2025. If you want to read the original post, you can check it out here (dwarkesh.com/p/timelines-june-2025).

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