STOP Shorting This Market This Is Why 90% of Traders Are Getting Cooked?-MP3

Pushing to highs. Yeah.

People are getting squeezed out of those positions.

NASDAQ hit an all-time high today. S & P is not far from it. Dow is not far from it. If you're just looking at trajectory, I mean, you would know. But that's something that people don't, you know, they see it like, hey, it's hit an all-time high. It has to pull back at some point. And yeah, eventually it will.

But look at the trend line before you make that decision. Look at how much money is just pouring in from 401ks. Like, in order to short NASDAQ and the Dow and ES, Nikkei, Kospi, you're telling me that the trillions of dollars that are being pumped in, the 401ks and money market funds, you're trading the direction wrong.

Go with the predominant direction. Look at the month chart first. Tell them the company, why don't you do that? Stay tuned.

I didn't like it either. I didn't like the company either.

Yeah, yeah.

But I will say this, though. It is good to have multiple different, because I spoke to Troy about this as well, especially with the options. You got to have multiple things working for you at the same time. If you put all your eggs in one basket and that goes south, which any option trade can go south, then you're screwed.

You can get a better basket.

That's what I'm saying. You got to have multiple. But you got to have multiple options working for you, though.

What are you saying? Like multiple positions?

Multiple calls.

Yeah.

Can I just add a caveat? Because I agree with you. In the same company or not in the same company?

Not in the same company. Now, everybody's budget doesn't afford them to do that. I understand that. But, I'm just saying, you give yourself a greater chance of winning the more positions. That doesn't mean you have to have a million positions. But if you just put it, alright, if you have $ 50, 000 and you're you saying, okay, if I can get a green jacket and I'm going to put.

$ 50, 000 on one option call.

No stop loss.

With the anticipation that that 50,000 is going to turn into 500,000. That's, that to me.

That's dangerous. Is ill-advised.

Yes. Especially if you don't have incredible acumen. Like we can even talk about this one. Like the, the five serve call. He's like, Hey, I got in, in the stock 169. Um, you think my January calls are cooked? I'm like, the company's cooked. Like, to your point, if he would have did Google, Microsoft, Micron, and spread the risk out, he wouldn't have had as much. Because we all have met people when they approach you and ask about the portfolio, you can feel the fear that's coming out of their energy, right? You have to reverse it.

Same with 2Tech, 2Index, and same with futures. That's why I say trade ES, NASDAQ, Dow, and the bond market. Well, because.

also what happens is when you have a company, a trade that goes well, you said, I should have put more money in. So then the next time around you up your limit. It's like being at the table in Vegas. So now you was playing at the 5,000 or 10,000 table. Now you play it at the 20,000 table. And so you up your limit on the amount of money that you start putting in. And you got to be careful with that too, because now your strategy has changed. And, you're going in with the anticipation that I learned my lesson last time because I made 500%, but I only put $ 5, 000 in. This time I'm going to put $ 15, 000 in.

And then when you put.

The $ 15, 000 in, you down 79% in two weeks. So you got to be disciplined with that too, because once you start to say, okay, now I'm going to put larger sums of money in because of that, it doesn't always work out in your favor.

Yeah, that's why you got to be super strategic. So based on that, it's like it starts with the one, right? So let's just take Micron when we did this in 2024. It started with one contract. Most people didn't even believe in that contract. And it was like, okay, we pulled back. We started at 110. First call was at 110.

Dropped down to 83.

We were down 60%. I said, we're not moving. In fact, as it creeps back up, we're going to let it pass the threshold. If that 110 call now goes up 50%, I think we're going to have a nice run, right?

So then you add to that.

Right.

So like when I'm talking about when I stack them and.

Sometimes you'll see like these these posts in my story, it'll be like, how do you get all these calls? Well, it started hitting thresholds and I'm watching the trend.

Right.

So it clears 200.

Now we're looking for 215. Oh, and it just keeps going up to the point now where, you know, we were at 1100 in June. We were at 1200. But people are looking at this. Anyway, he's in a 230 call. Well, we got the 230 call when it was sitting at 170.

You feel me? So you.

That's why I wanted to make it a distinguish between are you doing it in the same company or are you doing it in a multiple?

So first get the foundation.

I always stress to people, foundation, foundation, foundation, whether that's in ETFs or whether that's in indexes. And then have some individual equities inside that foundation. Then you can maybe get to derivatives, right? But you don't want to skip steps. If you got 50,000, if that's your only 50,000, that's ill...

I mean, obviously, that's really ill-advised. But if you start to see an uptrend, like we saw... in the memory space, like we saw in the compute space, like we've now seen in energy, like we're seeing in a lot of the infrastructure, then there's an opportunity to say, okay, well, we've made it 500%. Can we now get another call to add to that? So we're just adding to the ladder.

And really, that's how we get our stacks. And it's a really great lesson that you brought up. You kind of skimmed over it, but to add to your winners and not your losers, like, because you're really essentially buying momentum, like same with NVIDIA, around that 212 mark. When everyone's saying, oh, I don't know if NVIDIA is going to give any more higher returns now sitting at the high 240. Add to your winners and stop trying to add to your losers to bring down your negative cost basis. If a lot more traders did that, you would be, especially in the futures market, you would be better off.

Yeah.

You know, I had a guy try to convert me on Saturday afternoon. He said, yo, I'm in Red Pan, Detroit. I love the way you research, man. yo, you could really do futures. I say, yo, that's not my discipline, bro. I say, Ian, the best in the game. Let him do that.

It's the same. People ask me all the time, why don't you do the options? I'm like, once you master something, you can give up a lot of your edge and your primary thing going to another asset, even though the charts are the same and the risk is the same. Sometimes the best thing to do is just stay dominant at the thing you're best at. Kudos to you, Hugo, who can do both, but very few people do both well.

Stay tuned. Who knows?

What do you feel about adding water technology companies to a portfolio?

I know. That's stupid. I'm going to be honest. No. I brought up CGW. I brought up the stock in 2020. I know a lot of people have talked about it and remixed it since then. I appreciate the question, but I think sometimes we end up searching for down the rabbit hole so much for the new thing that we end up missing on the sector that matters. I'm going to be very honest. The only thing that matters right now is tech. Everything that's doing well is the tech or tech derivative. There's no reason to even add this to look at this at a portfolio at all.

I try to give the benefit of the doubt here and just say, okay, well, where's this question? Where's the origin of it? Where did you derive or get to that point? And I started thinking this, and maybe this is the thought process. people keep hearing that number one, clean water is important. You know, there's a lack thereof water is going to be, I mean, it is a natural resource, but they keep hearing data centers and the amount of water that's being used. And so maybe people were thinking, Hey, maybe I should find companies that are building infrastructure to make sure that we have and house water in the event that there is a shortage because of the build out of AI.

That, I'm not sure that's what they were thinking, but that's what I'm like.

Maybe that was a thought, but like it's the wrong sector. If we're going to be honest, it's the wrong, even when people like, okay, well, AI is destroying water infrastructure and they've switched from that. A lot of that stuff is propaganda. The ticker he's talking about is XLY. The high last year was 154.27. It's currently at 102.00. You got to look at the mode, the profit margin. And once again, I shouldn't be able to name 55 companies off the top of my head that are dramatically better.

I don't even think they're the best in the category.

So no. Yeah, I haven't diversified to that point. I don't have anything in that.

Over-diversification is a mistake too. Yeah.

It's tech. It's tech for me, for sure. I think you're 100% spot on. It's tech. It's going to be tech.

Well, you can have tech and water and they can go hand in hand.

Yes.

And that's why I'm trying to add the tech component. Maybe they're thinking from the AI infrastructure. I'm thinking the AI infrastructure is going to be the leader and the catalyst for the next five, ten years.

There's so many different things that tech comes in play when it comes to water. If you really think about it, that's actually the first water. The first type of tech is water. When irrigation systems came, that was ancient Egypt. That's actually a form of technology. As far as turning um salt water into drinkable water um israel has they have tank they have whole factories where they're doing this for a long time and that's a form of technology for sure you talk about data centers you talk about water purification so that the natural resources and technology do go hand in hand especially when it comes to water because this water is is.

Such a big deal right now.

Is it an investment?

Well, that's a totally different conversation.

But it is.

The tech, I think tech and water, they definitely go hand in hand. Even the purification of water is tech. That's what I'm saying. I think you're saying the same thing, right?

And we've said this over and over repeatedly on this show for sure, that if your business doesn't have a tech component, then do you have a business?

So I think that has to be aligned.

In fact, it's going to be if it doesn't have an AI component in it, are you going to have a true growth company?

Well, that's the thing I think we really got to focus on is subsectors of tech. Because at some point saying tech is not even going to be relevant because everything is a tech company. So now we got to say, okay, what's the subsector of tech? Whether it's chips, whether it's security, like, because.

We're going to get to a point where we've done it.

No, no, no. But I'm just saying when people say I invest in tech, well, everything is going to be tech. Everything is almost tech now. And then the Nike is in tech. Almost.

Almost. Now they try. Did you see that on the worst investments of all time?

Stupid. What's going to verify the legitimacy of the shoe? What? Is that the best idea? Before this collapse happened, shout out to everybody in Oregon. There were signs of idiocracy coming out in those ideas that they weren't going to land well. So I get it. But even in the tech sectors, there's hierarchy in information tech that matters. And some of them, it's like the companies who say they're AI adjacent and they're not. It's like they're trying to gamify the gains. And my bigger point, I don't want people to overthink what to invest in. And like, if we take this ticker XOI off the top of my head, I could just go through banking and FinTech and pick a bunch of better companies. So the answer for this

is no.

STOP Shorting This Market This Is Why 90% of Traders Are Getting Cooked?-MP3

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